10 billion organizations, each merging with 100 other, distinct organizations?
When Mathematicians talk about "0 probability events", I think that's what they mean... ;-) Surely, even taken the 2^-40 probability, some poor guy can get stuck - I agree with that. (I can imagine him thinking, "I should not have ignored this MD5 part...") Regards, -- Nir Arad ----- Original Message ----- From: "Christian Huitema" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Nir Arad" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 8:37 PM Subject: RE: Moving forward on Site-Local and Local Addressing > > Actually, I believe we do not have a birthday paradox issue in this case. > > The birthday paradox would exist only if ALL 1.2 million self-drawn prefixes would > > see each other. > > However, in our scenario, the merging of two enterprises, only the two local > > prefixes may collide with each other. > > They can not collide with the other 1.2 million or any other number of prefixes > > out there. > > Thus, the probability remains 2^-40. > > The individual probability of two domains colliding is x=2^-40, but the global > result on the Internet is a somewhat larger. If we have N domains, and each peers with M other domains, then the probability of absence of collision for each domain is: > p1 = (1-x)^M > The probability that no collision will be observed in the whole Internet is > p2 = (1-x)^MN > I believe we can easily find a value of N (say 10 billion) and M (say 100) where p2 > is close to 1, i.e. some poor guy somewhere is going to get stuck. > > Which means that we should build an escape hatch: easy renumbering & number > registration come to mind. > > -- Christian Huitema > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- > IETF IPng Working Group Mailing List > IPng Home Page: http://playground.sun.com/ipng > FTP archive: ftp://playground.sun.com/pub/ipng > Direct all administrative requests to [EMAIL PROTECTED] > -------------------------------------------------------------------- > -------------------------------------------------------------------- IETF IPng Working Group Mailing List IPng Home Page: http://playground.sun.com/ipng FTP archive: ftp://playground.sun.com/pub/ipng Direct all administrative requests to [EMAIL PROTECTED] --------------------------------------------------------------------
