If we make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic. I have read comments on various fora about how, historically, once we get into a "last 4" situation, we never end up winners. However, there are a number of ways to look at that, not just the "we never do well" approach.
1) The "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern" scenario: if a tossed coin has come down tails 99 times out of 99, the odds of it coming down tails the 100th time are still even. Or are they? 2) If the odds are that 100 tosses will yield 50 tails and 50 heads, then if there has been no heads in 99 attempts, then the chances of the 100th being heads are greater. Or..............if you accept that any football club will triumph occasionally in "last 4" situations, with a probability of perhaps 3 out of 10, then the fact that Leeds have failed in their last 7 (I believe that's the count) attempts just makes it more likely that we'll succeed this time. Specifically, I reckon we could get past Reading in a two-legger. I didn't think we played that badly on saturday. Their goal was a brilliant shot from Cormorant or whatever he's called...........it was way above 2nd Div quality. I know they had a few other chances, but somehow I never felt worried by them. If it hadn't been for that one great shot, I think we'd have got a nice 0-0 out of it. Even with that shot, we still beat them 2-1 on aggregate. I doubt very much if Termite-ant, or whatever he is called, can produce another shot like that. Then a final v Udders or Fulham? I would have been very pessimistic about beating the dog botherers a few weeks ago, but if they continue their recent wobble, they are going to be getatable. Ditto Fulham, or even Wendies............they've looked more vulnerable in recent weeks. Of course, that is all IF we can get into the bloody playoffs! On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM, nat...@sky.com <nat...@sky.com> wrote: > So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points > get us promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) - Even > better Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday and > Fulham cannot both get 21 points > We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams > with no real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our nerve > in front of what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15 > needed. > So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and > Wigan - not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable - > Brentford have nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just > roll over, especially at home and especially in front of a full house. This > makes tomorrow a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good. > Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will > most likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their ground) > but how often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will > most likely fighting for their lives when we play them. > Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle and > pick up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3 games > (win one and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday need > to get at least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and knock > us out of play offs - I cannot see this happening > All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham > away to Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherham - lets hope > Rotherham do have that 'bounce' that relegated teams have - a win for us > and a draw for Sheff would be a massive morale boost and put us 8 points > above them with 6 games to go - fingers crossed ( a defeat for us and win > for them and the gap is suddenly only 3 points with 6 to go) > I love the fact that we have something to play for but all these 'ifs and > buts' and maths just gets inside my head and dominates everything I do ! > > Dave > > > > _______________________________________________ > Leedslist mailing list > Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org. > uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist > To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org > > > MARCHING ON TOGETHER > _______________________________________________ Leedslist mailing list Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org MARCHING ON TOGETHER
