You should get a job at Opta, Sean.
On 3 April 2017 at 16:15, {broken-address} <
seanscr...@aol.com-is-broken.gn.apc.org> wrote:
> Rob,
>
>
> Leeds have failed to win it all in far more than the most recent seven
> "last four" appearances. Since "Clarke... 1-0!" we have made at least the
> last four in the following 15 knock-out/winner-take-all contests, and
> failed to win any of them:
>
>
> FA Cup: 1973, 1977, 1987
> League Cup: 1978, 1979, 1991, 1996
> European Cup/Champions League: 1975, 2001
> UEFA Cup: 2000
> European Cup Winners' Cup: 1973
> Playoffs: 1987, 2006, 2008, 2009
>
>
> Cheers!
>
>
> Sean
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Rob Heath <rhe...@hkis.edu.hk>
> To: nattan <nat...@sky.com>
> Cc: leeds list <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
> Sent: Mon, Apr 3, 2017 10:01 am
> Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left
>
> If we make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic.
>
> I have read comments on various fora about how, historically, once we get
> into a "last 4" situation, we never end up winners. However, there are a
> number of ways to look at that, not just the "we never do well" approach.
>
> 1) The "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern" scenario: if a tossed coin has come
> down tails 99 times out of 99, the odds of it coming down tails the 100th
> time are still even.
>
> Or are they?
>
> 2) If the odds are that 100 tosses will yield 50 tails and 50 heads, then
> if there has been no heads in 99 attempts, then the chances of the 100th
> being heads are greater.
>
> Or..............if you accept that any football club will triumph
> occasionally in "last 4" situations, with a probability of perhaps 3 out of
> 10, then the fact that Leeds have failed in their last 7 (I believe that's
> the count) attempts just makes it more likely that we'll succeed this time.
>
> Specifically, I reckon we could get past Reading in a two-legger. I didn't
> think we played that badly on saturday. Their goal was a brilliant shot
> from Cormorant or whatever he's called...........it was way above 2nd Div
> quality. I know they had a few other chances, but somehow I never felt
> worried by them. If it hadn't been for that one great shot, I think we'd
> have got a nice 0-0 out of it. Even with that shot, we still beat them 2-1
> on aggregate. I doubt very much if Termite-ant, or whatever he is called,
> can produce another shot like that. Then a final v Udders or Fulham? I
> would have been very pessimistic about beating the dog botherers a few
> weeks ago, but if they continue their recent wobble, they are going to be
> getatable. Ditto Fulham, or even Wendies............they've looked more
> vulnerable in recent weeks.
>
> Of course, that is all IF we can get into the bloody playoffs!
>
> On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM, nat...@sky.com <nat...@sky.com> wrote:
>
> > So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points
> > get us promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) -
> Even
> > better Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday
> and
> > Fulham cannot both get 21 points
> > We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams
> > with no real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our
> nerve
> > in front of what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15
> > needed.
> > So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and
> > Wigan - not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable -
> > Brentford have nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just
> > roll over, especially at home and especially in front of a full house.
> This
> > makes tomorrow a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good.
> > Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will
> > most likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their
> ground)
> > but how often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will
> > most likely fighting for their lives when we play them.
> > Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle and
> > pick up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3 games
> > (win one and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday need
> > to get at least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and
> knock
> > us out of play offs - I cannot see this happening
> > All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham
> > away to Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherham - lets hope
> > Rotherham do have that 'bounce' that relegated teams have - a win for us
> > and a draw for Sheff would be a massive morale boost and put us 8 points
> > above them with 6 games to go - fingers crossed ( a defeat for us and win
> > for them and the gap is suddenly only 3 points with 6 to go)
> > I love the fact that we have something to play for but all these 'ifs and
> > buts' and maths just gets inside my head and dominates everything I do !
> >
> > Dave
> >
> >
> >
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