Two thoughts:

a-Isaac Deutscher says in the Afterword of THE PROPHET OUTCAST that Trotsky 
would have been unable to regain power had he lived because of the shortcomings 
of his analysis and framework. Even though he was a Communist, he was still wed 
to the Marxist schema of the Second International. He even asks in his notes 
whether Marxism was disproved by the inability of German workers to reject 
fascism and the Soviet workers to reject Stalin. And then within a decade you 
have the Chinese revolution, ten years after that the Cuban revolution, and 
then in the following twenty-five years the Latin American and African revolts 
against colonialism and imperialism.

b-Trotsky unfortunately alienated himself from the Soviet leadership by the 
mid-Thirties. Regardless of his brilliance as a writer, he was extremely 
haughty, elitist, and self-important to the point of being a nuisance. He used 
to flaunt his brilliance by quoting Flaubert in the middle of Central Committee 
meetings, annoying everyone by saying how smart he was. Deutscher said that the 
Fourth International was stillborn.

So if he had lived, it is possible to imagine him ending up roughly akin to 
Alexander Berkman and Emma Goldman, exiled dissident Jews who used to 
sympathize with the Russian revolution but ended up writing polemics with 
limited shelf life.


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