I’m going to put my house on the market soon. Some similarities here with 
out-of-control development on fill-and-build tracts of too-low land that needs 
6 or 8ft of impervious fill to throw up sh*tty slab-on-grade low quality vinyl 
villages that won’t likely survive the next big blow. That’s not really my 
competition but it distorts the market by catering to the younger comyahs who 
know nothing. 

--FT
Sent from iPhone

> On Dec 31, 2019, at 5:53 AM, Dan Penoff via Mercedes <mercedes@okiebenz.com> 
> wrote:
> 
> First of all, my apologies to Curley and others if I misunderstood. The real 
> estate market here appears to be very different than yours. While I know that 
> people are all about “new-new new!” as buyers, with the average age home 
> being much less in years than in places like the Midwest and elsewhere that’s 
> not as much of a driver for the marketability of a house.
> 
> I think a lot of the “new-new-new” mentality comes from all of the HGTV 
> remodeling shows that have what seems like everyone and their brother gutting 
> their houses on a whim to encompass the latest and greatest styles and 
> designs. I can’t help but wonder if places like the big box remodeling stores 
> are behind a lot of this, as they’re the ones who stand to gain from it.
> 
> In my immediate area you can find literally hundreds of new homes for sale on 
> any given day. Development in this area has reached an insane pace, almost 
> approaching the boom of the early 2000s. I see developments of 1600-2000 
> homes going up left and right, and they’re selling as quickly as they can put 
> them up. If there’s a market for the “new-new-new!” folks it’s satisfied by 
> these places, and we’ll never see those buyers looking at our house.
> 
> However, with the way things are going, a buyer who wants in a house in short 
> order, say less than 90 days, isn’t going to go that route. Inventory homes 
> are rarely available, and the lead time on completion of a new home is easily 
> 6-8 months from contract signing to occupancy, if not more. These are our 
> buyers.
> 
> Another thing on our side in the market is an established neighborhood with 
> existing amenities and location. The billions of new homes being built are in 
> areas where the infrastructure hasn’t been expanded to accommodate the influx 
> of people, and as a result traffic and accessibility is nothing short of a 
> nightmare. Those infrastructure upgrades will be years in the making, maybe 
> as long as 6-8 years or more.
> 
> I have a golf course, YMCA, little league, “A” rated elementary school and 
> private park, all within walking distance. You won’t get those in a new 
> development. Shopping at major stores is 5-10 minutes away, depending on 
> where you want to shop. I’m just seven miles to the interstate and less than 
> that to the Crosstown Expressway, a toll road going directly into downtown 
> Tampa. Want to live in a new home? You’re looking at an hour commute to go 25 
> miles if you work in downtown Tampa. From my house depending on the time of 
> day it’s roughly 30 minutes. We have a large contingent of military families 
> here, thanks to being one of the highest rated areas by the BHO (Base Housing 
> Office) at MacDill AFB, home of SOCOM.
> 
> These are all things that make my neighborhood attractive in this market, and 
> they’ve always been that way as long as we’ve been here. It’s one of the 
> reasons why we built and bought here.
> 
> Now - the “new-new-new!” folks will see our roof, AC and water heater as a 
> plus, as other properties in the area that might be our competition won’t 
> have their physical plants upgraded/replaced yet. With the age of most of 
> these homes being in the early 20 year range, if these things haven’t been 
> replaced, they’re at the threshold of needing to be. If I look at two roughly 
> comparable homes, one that has a new roof and one that doesn’t, the one that 
> will need a roof better be $20k less. If not, I’ll move on. That’s the 
> average cost of a roof replacement around here. Brokers will definitely point 
> this out to potential buyers. Paint is a 10 year item. AC, 20 years. Water 
> heater, 10 years.
> 
> We’ll list this house like we have others in the past. First, we’ll get an 
> appraisal - a real appraisal, not a “market valuation”. That way we know 
> where a buyer has to be as far as financing. Then we’ll do a survey of 
> comparable sales in the immediate area for the last 12 months. With this 
> information, we’ll establish a fair price and list the property for that 
> amount. None of this “start high and work our way down.” The listing price 
> will be a reasonable amount for the property based on the data we’ve 
> collected. We might leave a little money on the table, but we’re more 
> interested in selling than making a windfall.
> 
> -D
> 
> 
>>> On Dec 30, 2019, at 10:58 PM, Mitch Haley via Mercedes 
>>> <mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
>>> 
>>> 
>>>> On December 30, 2019 at 9:30 PM Curley McLain via Mercedes 
>>>> <mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
>>> 
>>> 
>>> Exactly.   His market may be different that the rest of the country, 
>>> because of all the people fleeing stupid states and moving to FL wanting 
>>> to buy houses.   but he needs to consider it is exactly these people who 
>>> made their state of origin stupid.
>> 
>> I thought Dan bought that water heater 5-6 years ago, shortly after I bought 
>> my current house. 
>> Mitch.
>> 
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> 
> 
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