How low do the odds of infection need to be for you Don? In my state, about 1 out of 200 people are infected, if I assume there are ten people infected for every one person that tests positive. This study says that odds are greater than 50% that person will not be shedding viruses, but if they are shedding viruses, then prolonged contact is probably required for infection to occur.
Give me Liberty, or give me COVID-19! Max Dillon Charleston SC Jul 19, 2020 8:18:11 PM OK Don via Mercedes <mercedes@okiebenz.com>: > Why do you think that you are better qualified to determine findings from > their study? They concluded: " Our results indicate that surgical face > masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza > viruses from symptomatic individuals. " > > On Sun, Jul 19, 2020 at 4:36 PM Meade Dillon via Mercedes < > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > >> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2 >> >> Read the whole study at least through the Discussion, don't stop at the >> abstract. >> >> "Some health authorities recommend that masks be worn by ill individuals to >> prevent onward transmission (source control)4 >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR4>,8 >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR8>. Surgical face >> masks were originally introduced to protect patients from wound infection >> and contamination from surgeons (the wearer) during surgical procedures, >> and were later adopted to protect healthcare workers against acquiring >> infection from their patients. However, most of the existing evidence on >> the filtering efficacy of face masks and respirators comes from in vitro >> experiments with nonbiological particles9 >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR9>,10 >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR10>, which may >> not >> be generalizable to infectious respiratory virus droplets. There is little >> information on the efficacy of face masks in filtering respiratory viruses >> and reducing viral release from an individual with respiratory infections8 >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR8>, and most >> research has focused on influenza11 >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR11>,12 >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR12>. >> >> Here we aimed to explore the importance of respiratory droplet and aerosol >> routes of transmission with a particular focus on coronaviruses, influenza >> viruses and rhinoviruses, by quantifying the amount of respiratory virus in >> exhaled breath of participants with medically attended ARIs and determining >> the potential efficacy of surgical face masks to prevent respiratory virus >> transmission." >> >> Key parts from the Discussion: >> >> " Among the samples collected without a face mask, we found that the >> majority of participants with influenza virus and coronavirus infection did >> not shed detectable virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols, whereas for >> rhinovirus we detected virus in aerosols in 19 of 34 (56%) participants >> (compared to 4 of 10 (40%) for coronavirus and 8 of 23 (35%) for >> influenza). For those who did shed virus in respiratory droplets and >> aerosols, viral load in both tended to be low (Fig. 1 >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#Fig1>). Given the high >> collection efficiency of the G-II (ref. 19 >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR19>) and given >> that each exhaled breath collection was conducted for 30 min, this might >> imply that prolonged close contact would be required for transmission to >> occur, even if transmission was primarily via aerosols, as has been >> described for rhinovirus colds." >> >> " The major limitation of our study was the large proportion of >> participants with undetectable viral shedding in exhaled breath for each of >> the viruses studied. We could have increased the sampling duration beyond >> 30 min to increase the viral shedding being captured, at the cost of >> acceptability in some participants. An alternative approach would be to >> invite participants to perform forced coughs during exhaled breath >> collection12 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR12>. >> However, it was the aim of our present study to focus on recovering >> respiratory virus in exhaled breath in a real-life situation and we >> expected that some individuals during an acute respiratory illness would >> not cough much or at all." >> >> Here in South Carolina, we have about 2000 new cases reported. Let's say >> for each person with a positive case, there's another 10 that are infected, >> so perhaps there are 20,000 people out there in South Carolina with Wuhan >> Red Death (WRD). State population is about 5,000,000 which means that >> about 0.4% of the population MIGHT be walking around with WRD. So if I go >> to Costco, and there are about 200 people in the store, maybe one of them >> is infected. >> >> I'm about 50, in good health with none of the health conditions that >> "experts" think might make me more likely to get seriously ill or die from >> this, so I'm not too worried. If there is one person that is sick, and for >> 30 minutes of them breathing next to me there's about a 6 in 10 chance that >> they aren't expelling any virii in their breath, and they don't cough on >> me, then neither they nor I really need a mask, right? I don't stay next >> to anyone for 30 minutes in any store that I go to, generally I'm in and >> out in 30 minutes or less. >> ------------- >> Max >> Charleston SC >> _______________________________________ >> http://www.okiebenz.com >> >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >> >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >> > -- > OK Don > > "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to > pause and reflect." Mark Twain > > “Basic research is what I’m doing when I don’t know what I am doing.” Wernher > Von Braun > 2013 F150, 18 mpg > 2017 Subaru Legacy, 30 mpg > 1957 C182A, 12 mpg - but at 150 mph! > _______________________________________ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > _______________________________________ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
