I understand the odds, but they are at this point in time, and your odds get worse every time those 10 infect 3.8 more people. Without masks it only gets worse. It's not just your chance of being infected, it's the odds that you are spreading it even if you never feel symptoms. I happen to be in a higher risk group, and don't appreciate those who are only thinking of themselves.
On Sun, Jul 19, 2020 at 7:41 PM Max Dillon via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > How low do the odds of infection need to be for you Don? > In my state, about 1 out of 200 people are infected, if I assume there are > ten people infected for every one person that tests positive. This study > says that odds are greater than 50% that person will not be shedding > viruses, but if they are shedding viruses, then prolonged contact is > probably required for infection to occur. > > Give me Liberty, or give me COVID-19! > > Max Dillon > Charleston SC > > Jul 19, 2020 8:18:11 PM OK Don via Mercedes <mercedes@okiebenz.com>: > > > Why do you think that you are better qualified to determine findings from > > their study? They concluded: " Our results indicate that surgical face > > masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza > > viruses from symptomatic individuals. " > > > > On Sun, Jul 19, 2020 at 4:36 PM Meade Dillon via Mercedes < > > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > > > >> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2 > >> > >> Read the whole study at least through the Discussion, don't stop at the > >> abstract. > >> > >> "Some health authorities recommend that masks be worn by ill > individuals to > >> prevent onward transmission (source control)4 > >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR4>,8 > >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR8>. Surgical > face > >> masks were originally introduced to protect patients from wound > infection > >> and contamination from surgeons (the wearer) during surgical procedures, > >> and were later adopted to protect healthcare workers against acquiring > >> infection from their patients. However, most of the existing evidence on > >> the filtering efficacy of face masks and respirators comes from in vitro > >> experiments with nonbiological particles9 > >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR9>,10 > >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR10>, which may > >> not > >> be generalizable to infectious respiratory virus droplets. There is > little > >> information on the efficacy of face masks in filtering respiratory > viruses > >> and reducing viral release from an individual with respiratory > infections8 > >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR8>, and most > >> research has focused on influenza11 > >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR11>,12 > >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR12>. > >> > >> Here we aimed to explore the importance of respiratory droplet and > aerosol > >> routes of transmission with a particular focus on coronaviruses, > influenza > >> viruses and rhinoviruses, by quantifying the amount of respiratory > virus in > >> exhaled breath of participants with medically attended ARIs and > determining > >> the potential efficacy of surgical face masks to prevent respiratory > virus > >> transmission." > >> > >> Key parts from the Discussion: > >> > >> " Among the samples collected without a face mask, we found that the > >> majority of participants with influenza virus and coronavirus infection > did > >> not shed detectable virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols, whereas > for > >> rhinovirus we detected virus in aerosols in 19 of 34 (56%) participants > >> (compared to 4 of 10 (40%) for coronavirus and 8 of 23 (35%) for > >> influenza). For those who did shed virus in respiratory droplets and > >> aerosols, viral load in both tended to be low (Fig. 1 > >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#Fig1>). Given the > high > >> collection efficiency of the G-II (ref. 19 > >> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR19>) and given > >> that each exhaled breath collection was conducted for 30 min, this might > >> imply that prolonged close contact would be required for transmission to > >> occur, even if transmission was primarily via aerosols, as has been > >> described for rhinovirus colds." > >> > >> " The major limitation of our study was the large proportion of > >> participants with undetectable viral shedding in exhaled breath for > each of > >> the viruses studied. We could have increased the sampling duration > beyond > >> 30 min to increase the viral shedding being captured, at the cost of > >> acceptability in some participants. An alternative approach would be to > >> invite participants to perform forced coughs during exhaled breath > >> collection12 < > https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2#ref-CR12>. > >> However, it was the aim of our present study to focus on recovering > >> respiratory virus in exhaled breath in a real-life situation and we > >> expected that some individuals during an acute respiratory illness would > >> not cough much or at all." > >> > >> Here in South Carolina, we have about 2000 new cases reported. Let's > say > >> for each person with a positive case, there's another 10 that are > infected, > >> so perhaps there are 20,000 people out there in South Carolina with > Wuhan > >> Red Death (WRD). State population is about 5,000,000 which means that > >> about 0.4% of the population MIGHT be walking around with WRD. So if I > go > >> to Costco, and there are about 200 people in the store, maybe one of > them > >> is infected. > >> > >> I'm about 50, in good health with none of the health conditions that > >> "experts" think might make me more likely to get seriously ill or die > from > >> this, so I'm not too worried. If there is one person that is sick, and > for > >> 30 minutes of them breathing next to me there's about a 6 in 10 chance > that > >> they aren't expelling any virii in their breath, and they don't cough on > >> me, then neither they nor I really need a mask, right? I don't stay > next > >> to anyone for 30 minutes in any store that I go to, generally I'm in and > >> out in 30 minutes or less. > >> ------------- > >> Max > >> Charleston SC > >> _______________________________________ > >> http://www.okiebenz.com > >> > >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > >> > >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > >> > > -- > > OK Don > > > > "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to > > pause and reflect." Mark Twain > > > > “Basic research is what I’m doing when I don’t know what I am doing.” > Wernher > > Von Braun > > 2013 F150, 18 mpg > > 2017 Subaru Legacy, 30 mpg > > 1957 C182A, 12 mpg - but at 150 mph! > > _______________________________________ > > http://www.okiebenz.com > > > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > > _______________________________________ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > -- OK Don "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." Mark Twain “Basic research is what I’m doing when I don’t know what I am doing.” Wernher Von Braun 2013 F150, 18 mpg 2017 Subaru Legacy, 30 mpg 1957 C182A, 12 mpg - but at 150 mph! _______________________________________ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
