Maybe. Ian is going to sit out in the Gulf right along the coast and “churn” for at least 24 hours with CAT3 (or higher) winds. While storm surges might not be as bad, damage from high winds will be much worse. We’ll have much higher rainfall since the north side of the hurricane will make landfall near us, as the west and north sides of the eye wall generate far more rain, as much as 20” (or more.)
Again, all storms “wobble”, so you’ve got to respect the cone. We’ve seen some pretty wild last minute changes before, so nothing is a sure thing until just before it happens. -D > On Sep 27, 2022, at 4:55 PM, mitch--- via Mercedes <mercedes@okiebenz.com> > wrote: > > Looks like the crosshairs are no longer centered on Tampa. > > Key Points > 1. Landfall has been shifted southward to near Port Charlotte tomorrow > afternoon. > 2. The threat of significant wind and a large storm surge into Tampa has > diminished. > 3. Hurricane threat and storm surge threat has increased considerably for Ft. > Myers. > Our Forecast > A reconnaissance plane investigating Ian is finding that the hurricane is > quickly regaining its strength now that the center is back over water. Some > additional strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours prior to the center > moving ashore tomorrow afternoon. > Ian has been tracking east of this morning's forecast. On its current > heading, the center will move inland west of Port Charlotte in about 24 > hours. The farther south landfall means that little weakening is expected > prior to landfall. We have shifted the landfall point southward to Port > Charlotte in this advisory. The farther south landfall means that Ian's > center will likely emerge into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach early Friday > morning. It may have time to intensify some prior to moving inland on the > middle Georgia coast Friday afternoon. We do not think that Ian will regain > hurricane strength during that short period in the Atlantic, but that cannot > be ruled out. Once inland into Georgia and South Carolina, Ian should quickly > weaken to a remnant low by Saturday. > Ian's slow movement near landfall on Thursday will result in prolonged strong > wind and very heavy rainfall for the Florida Peninsula. By the time Ian moves > northward into Georgia, however, it should have ingested plenty of dry air, > resulting in significantly lower rainfall amounts over Georgia and the > Carolinas on Friday and Saturday. > > _______________________________________ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > _______________________________________ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
