Looks like the crosshairs are no longer centered on Tampa.
Key Points
1. Landfall has been shifted southward to near Port Charlotte tomorrow
afternoon.
2. The threat of significant wind and a large storm surge into Tampa has
diminished.
3. Hurricane threat and storm surge threat has increased considerably
for Ft. Myers.
Our Forecast
A reconnaissance plane investigating Ian is finding that the hurricane
is quickly regaining its strength now that the center is back over
water. Some additional strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours
prior to the center moving ashore tomorrow afternoon.
Ian has been tracking east of this morning's forecast. On its current
heading, the center will move inland west of Port Charlotte in about 24
hours. The farther south landfall means that little weakening is
expected prior to landfall. We have shifted the landfall point southward
to Port Charlotte in this advisory. The farther south landfall means
that Ian's center will likely emerge into the Atlantic near Daytona
Beach early Friday morning. It may have time to intensify some prior to
moving inland on the middle Georgia coast Friday afternoon. We do not
think that Ian will regain hurricane strength during that short period
in the Atlantic, but that cannot be ruled out. Once inland into Georgia
and South Carolina, Ian should quickly weaken to a remnant low by
Saturday.
Ian's slow movement near landfall on Thursday will result in prolonged
strong wind and very heavy rainfall for the Florida Peninsula. By the
time Ian moves northward into Georgia, however, it should have ingested
plenty of dry air, resulting in significantly lower rainfall amounts
over Georgia and the Carolinas on Friday and Saturday.
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