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I have
to correct you guys on value of "Cat People" one sheet. I sold my personal copy
over five years ago and was one of the cleanest copies around and it fetched
$6000 plus the BP at auction. Meaning, at that time, $6600. I cannot remember
when a "Cat People" was trading for $4,000! It must be at least ten years ago,
as that has always been one of the most scarce and beautiful of the Lewton
sheets. I see that PosterPrice has one selling at Butterfield's for $2800 in
1998 and I believe that one slipped thru the cracks! I sold the rare Style
B half sheet for $8600 in November of last year. I would have been shocked had
that one sheet brought less than $10,000 at this time. It is by no stretch of
the imagination a common or a $4000. one sheet.
Grey
Smith
Heritage Galleries &
Auctioneers
3500 Maple Avenue,
17th Floor
Dallas, Texas
75219-3941
Rich,
A great comprehensive analysis. You've covered all the bases and,
unfortunately, it's pretty easy to see where this is all headed. Since you're
right that last night's $12,000 poster sold by Bruce is still worth about
$4,000 unless you happen to be Bruce with the best customer base in the world
-- but doesn't that mean that as a matter of practicality, anyone who really
wants to realize the best price for their posters is simply going to
consign them to Bruce from now on? Or Heritage? Even with the consigner paying
20-odd percent in fees, if you can get two or three or even four times as much
for your poster as you can anywhere else, then it's still the way to go, isn't
it? Even if you're an established dealer like yourself, isn't it going to
make more sense to simply send the better items in your inventory to Bruce?
-- JR
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, December 20, 2004
0:52
Subject: re:Why are super-high prices
good and slabbed collectibles.
JR has made one of the most salient comparisons he could have
when he
compared high prices in comics to be a death knell for the
ordinary
collector. While comic dealers and others may trumpet how good
high prices
are, anyone must realize the dangers they pose to any
hobby.For
instance, in an economy where 50% of the population
makes less than
$25,000 a year, you would have to wonder how that half
could possibly
afford to collect anything, and you have to go all the
way up to the top 5%
of the american population to get to $50,000 a
year. You must also remember
that the average cost of living in any good
sized city in America is
$48,000 it doesn't leave very much for spending
money without sacrificing
something else and while most collectors would
happily sacrifice eating to
get that comic book or poster, if that goes
on too long.. one more
collector gone!
Back in the middle 80's I
was on the way to becoming the top dealer of
original comic art &
pulp illustration in the world. Only Russ Cochran was
on my level. Well
as time went by, I only began selling more & more
expensive items.
So in 1986 I took in $20,000 at San Diego Comicon (SDC
from here on )
with about 400 customers. at SDC in 1990 I took in $35K, but
with only
150 customers. In 1992 I did $40K with less than 100 and in 1995
I took
in over $50K, but with only 40 buyers as they were the only ones who
could afford my stuff. Not only that, I was finding I could not afford
to
buy collections anymore as the prices had become so high & the
margin was
getting so low that I was going to have to start taking in
almost
$1,000,000 a year to make the same profits I made in 1989 one
$350K. In
other words I would have to work 3times as hard to make no
extra. But wait
there's more, at the same time several bigtime
collector's had either
stopped collecting, or personal issues (like
divorce, loss of good job etc)
removed these top customers from the
field resulting in difficulty
achieving the same high price were getting
for things like Flash Gordon
sunday pages by Alex Raymond (up to $50K in
1991, same pages sold in 1996
for $15) and taking losses on those items
to move them out, or be forced to
hold them for 10 years to sell which
is a negative.
Today comics & comic book art are in my own
opinion the most overpriced
hobbies there are and anything good is
beyond the average collector in
price. If you want to complete a
collection of Spiderman in fine condition
(which is the minimum
condition for investment) it would cost you soemthing
in the range of
$150,000. A near mint, slabbed collection in 9.0 or better
could get to
$1,000,000. How many of you wish to be at the mercy of such a
market
where it's possible the only collector for that item at that price
actually dictates the market price instead of you as the seller and he
is
very simply the ONLY collector at that level??
To me it's a
simple calculation, at an auction when something sells for
$50,000, but
only 2 players are over $25K. When the $50K buyer wishes to
sell.....
the item is not worth $50K but the $25K that was forced by the
presence
of the $24,500 bidder and anyone who bought another copy of that
poster
at $50K because he thought it was worth it because of the auction
price
realized is in for a rude awakening... and that is as bad for the
hobby
as Enron stock raping a Wall Street investor.
Of course teh fact that
now everyone with a Cat People poster is going to
ask $12K will bring an
end to the sale. That poster is worth the same $4000
today it was
yesterday.. unless you are Bruce H and have very simply the
best
customer base there is.
About slabbing collectibles... No one
mentioned the reason comics are
slabbed. One reason.. investors
!!
When you go to SDC and every dealer has a Spider Man #1, the only
difference between them is how each individual dealer grades the same
copy
of the book and grading the same copy differently can mean $1000's
to the
dealer who grades it at very fine instead of the guy who honestly
grades it
at fine-very fine. So in comes a third party who will be
recognized as
the independent arbiter (Comics Guaranty Company or
CGC) and places a
grade that is recognized by all dealers without
dispute, so now a collector
- or more specifically an investor - can
come in & know with a reasonable
certainty that no dealer can try to
cheapen his copy when he goes to sell
it and therefore his investment is
protected. What has resulted of course
is that a "census" of number of
issues of that title has also been able to
be manufactured so everyone
can see that comics in 9.8 are rare and
investors value them at as much
as 20x value. A Spawn #1 in 10.0 (only
known copy in that grade) sold
for over $2000 in 2003 which was something
like 100x the listed guide
value.
Another way to look at it.. the comics hobby cooked up the
perfect scam to
be able to reap profits they would not have otherwise
been able to get. But
they also froze out anyone making under $100,000 a
year from becoming a
serious collector. That is very bad for the
hobby.
There has to be massive collectors at the bottom levels who
become the
bottom of the pyramid & work their way up so that years
from now thety
become the top collectors. With Heritage and others, the
only thing that
exists is the top of the pyramid today and there is no
bottom, so will
there be collectors moving up the pyramid becomes the
question for the
future and that's when the pyramid crumbles to
dust.
this was just my way of saying that prices of collectibles
increasing at a
pace that is faster than the populace's increasing
fortunes is dangerous
for any hobby.... including movie
posters..
Rich===========================
At 06:51
PM 12/19/04, J R wrote:
>If you're a seller, don't bother to answer
that question. But if you're in
>the majority -- someone who buys for
their own collection with no real
>intention of selling anytime soon,
if ever -- then how can this sudden,
>recent rash of ultra-high
pricing (for even some of the more common stuff)
>possibly be
considered "good" for you? Or for the hobby?
>
>I've been
wondering out loud about this for some time... about the absurd
>prices the "better" posters now seem to be going for on a
regular basis.
>Back in the 1980's this effect swept through comic
book collecting. It
>continued and got to the point where by now you
simply must be a rich
>person -- not doing well, but actually *rich*
-- to buy and collect the
>"really nice comics". A person of average
means just can't buy them
>anymore, even if they only eat rice and
beans for dinner all year.
>
>Now I suppose some will trot out
the worn old maxim about "something is
>only worth what someone wants
to pay for it" (as if that explained or
>justified anything when
there are so many millionaires in the world). And
>there will be
others who say, well so what? That's just the way the
>capitalist
cookie crumbles and trickles down on the rest of the world. But
>I
say it's a damn shame nonetheless. Anyway, it looks like this elitist
>shut-out is now happening to all the "really nice movie posters" --
even
>the lobby cards!
>
>What can be done about it?
Nothing. But let's not all of us pretend that
>this trend is good for
everybody, shall we?
>
>-- JR
>
>Visit the MoPo
Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com
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