Dear Tsung,

The reason the p-value may have decreased as you increased the number of
iterations with your own data set may simply be because you are increasing
the denominator when you calculate the p-value. For example, if you run 5
iterations, the lowest p-value you obtain is 1/5 = 0.2. If you run 100,
then 0.01, and so on. Therefore, if you have a strong signal against the
null hypothesis, then the p-value will decrease as you increase the number
of iterations (i.e., 1/"no. of iter" ).

Cheers,
Aki

On Tue, Jun 2, 2015 at 8:33 AM, Adams, Dean [EEOBS] <[email protected]>
wrote:

>  Tsung,
>
>
>
> This property of permutation tests has been known for some time. Generally
> speaking, as the number of permutations increases the variation in
> significance levels obtained from repeated runs decreases. Earlier work in
> the statistics literature from the 70s and 80s by Edgington and others
> discusses the issue.
>
>
>
> You will also find a figure demonstrating the property for behavioral data
> in Adams and Anthony 1996 (Fig. 3).
>
>
>
> Best,
>
>
>
> Dean
>
>
>
> Dr. Dean C. Adams
>
> Professor
>
> Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology
>
>        Department of Statistics
>
> Iowa State University
>
> www.public.iastate.edu/~dcadams/
>
> phone: 515-294-3834
>
>
>
> *From:* Tsung Fei Khang [mailto:[email protected]]
> *Sent:* Sunday, May 31, 2015 12:38 PM
> *To:* [email protected]
> *Subject:* [MORPHMET] Stability of p-values (physignal and testing for
> morphological integration)
>
>
>
> Dear community,
>
>
>
> I would like to share my experience with using some (really cool)
> computational tools for phylogenetic signal and morphological integration
> analysis.
>
>
>
> I am using physignal (geomorph R package) and the Phylo.Morphol.PLS
> function provided in the paper by Adams and Felice (2014; PLoS ONE,
> 9:e94335) in my work. I noticed that if the same analysis is rerun for a
> particular number of iterations, the results may vary. Additionally, I
> observed that increasing the number of iterations, up to some critical
> point, may push down the p-value, depending on data set (didn't happen with
> the plethspecies (9 species) data, but happened in my data set - 13
> species, not salamanders). I attach runs (10 times) for both data sets for
> iterations of 100, 1000, 10000 and 100000 here for Phylo.Morphol.PLS.
> Note that some kind of stable results is attained after 1000 iterations
> (default) for the plethspecies data, but for my case, which needs 10000.
>
>
>
> I think the notion that p-values returned from a permutation method are
> actually realizations of random variables with a certain mean and variance
> may not be familiar to many biologists, who are accustomed to expect a
> reproducible p-value when the same data set is rerun using common
> statistical tests. Perhaps in a future version the authors of the code can
> implement a checker within the functions that checks the number of
> iterations for  attaining "convergence", so that a more stable p-value is
> returned?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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-- 
Aki Watanabe
Doctoral Candidate
Division of Paleontology
Richard Gilder Graduate School
American Museum of Natural History
Central Park West at 79th Street
New York, NY 10024
website: https://sites.google.com/site/akinopteryx/
twitter: @akiopteryx

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