hehehe...iya pak,klo bisa meramal masa depan namanya mungkin bukan analis tapi ahli nujum :p ( canda pak )
saya setuju banget pak emang klo yang namanya analis belum tentu benar,jadi jangan telen bulat2,lha wong berita apa yang bakal keluar besok aja gak tau:p dan kalau pun mereka tau saya gak yakin mereka bisa pastiin posisi apa yang investor bakal pasang ( buy/sell ) waktu lihat data/berita tersebut,dan berapa besar power dari tiap2 orang nya, toh memang yang mengendalikan pasar itu kan murni presepsi yang bisa berubah dalam hitungan detik,seandai yang saya sebut diatas mereka semua bisa pastiin,saya gak yakin mereka bisa juga memastikan bahwa variabel2 lain nya tetap,contoh harga komoditas nya,atau mungkin bencana alam,dsb.hehehe nama nya juga pasar ada yang jual,ada yang beli,dan tidak ada yang namanya garansi di dunia ini,karna sifat data nya yang variabel itu...yah klo saya boleh kasih recomendasi Get used with it,toh dari downgrade bisa jadi upgrade klo memang variabel nya berubah dan sebalik nya..wong peramal aja yang jelas2 memposisikan diri sebagai orang yang dapat melihat dan meramal masa depan,akurasi ramalan nya aja ada yang gak kejadian ( sorry bukan mo menyepelekan masalah ) apa lagi analis yang jelas2 mapang disclaimer besar di setiap riset nya dengan penjelasan detail dibawah nya sehalaman penuh.."analis juga manusia" hehehe hehehe...saya kok jadi inget kata kawan saya waktu saya pertama kali berkenalan dengan pasar modal,dia bilang di sini yang namanya informasi itu bisa jadi 1000 presepsi,dan 1 data bisa jadi 1000 penilaian yang berbeda,dan yang lucunya di sini orang2 harus doyan gosip soalnya klo ada berita gak digosok dulu, lu kagak akan dapet apa2...hehehe,tapi itu realita lho,ya klo mau liat riset fundamental mungkin bisa coba perhatikan dasar penilaian nya menggunakan metode analisa apa,karna setau saya banyak sekali metode yang bisa di pakai untuk mengolah data dan ajaib nya semuanya bener lha wong ada dasar nya kok...hehehe harusnya sih analis itu memang bertindak sebagai expert advisor,orang2 yang memang fokus nya melakuakn riset dan digaji untuk itu,tugas utamnya memang ngasih opini,lha klo yang di kasih opini gak mau ikutin toh gak masalah kan hehehe,orang eksekusi nya ada di tangan masing2 investor..gitu aja kok repot :p peace :-) ----- Original Message ----- From: Cumi Goreng Tepung To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Monday, February 16, 2009 9:01 PM Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential di fficulties offset attractive price ada nasabah ml? coba aja tanya langsung ke analisnya. saya pernah nemu angka yang menurut saya gak masuk akal di suatu riset keluaran broker saya, terus saya tanyakan ke analisnya. ternyata angka tersebut SALAH. Analis Juga Manusia. On 2/16/09, thom chris <thom_chris2...@yahoo.com> wrote: > ga make sense ahh.. cm naik 8%.. tp downgrade cuma ke 900..hahaha... > > --- On Mon, 2/16/09, sylar_fang <sylar_f...@yahoo.co.id> wrote: > From: sylar_fang <sylar_f...@yahoo.co.id> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential di > fficulties offset attractive price > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 6:01 AM > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ... mungkin FENI I-IV na ANTM mau disabotase ama ML kali > > pak ... :) ... so tinggal GOLD aja ... pan GOLD menyumbang less than > > 10% dr income na ANTM ... btw kl mau ke 900 sih kita tampung aja .. > > ane masih hold neh ANTM yg ane beli di 10xx ... kl turun avg down > > aja ... makan dividen gpp deh taun ini ... biasa na dividen na BUMN > > lumayan .. apalagi mau election nih ... kali aja ANTM berbaik ati > > bagi dividen diatas 50% an dr net income na ... > > > > .... btw apa gak salah baca pak ? ... udah males ane skrg kl baca2 > > riset sekuritas ... apalagi ML yg kl gak di bailout udah bangkrut ... > > > > :) > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, ARRAY27 <arra...@... > wrote: > >> > >> Maksudnya ML apa nih. Net income ANTM 2009 diestimasi cuma 8% dari > > estimasi > >> net income 2008? Enggak kira2 ya. Sekalian saja diestimasi rugi dan > >> bangkrut, kayak ML-nya sendiri. Kalo harga saham emang bisa saja > > turun ke > >> 900, kayak ML guyur bumi ke 4xx-5xx. Tapi kalo laba emitennya yang > > diguyur > >> tinggal 8% itu gimana caranya? Begitu parahnya kah ANTM??? > >> > >> 2009/2/16 Cumi Goreng Tepung <cumie...@.. .> > >> > >> > ati-ati aja, kali aja ada ML's Daisy Suryo strikes back! > >> > > >> > > >> > Salam, > >> > Korban BUMI? Makan cumi saja! > >> > > >> > > >> > On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 3:55 PM, Yudizz <y_d...@...> wrote: > >> > > >> >> Si ML ini belum tahu ya kalo embernya Pak Rei gede banget. > > Bukan ember > >> >> lagi, udah kaya waduk malah. Kekekek... > >> >> > >> >> Canda Bos... > >> >> > >> >> Regards, > >> >> Yudizz > >> >> > >> >> Send from My Nokia Nseries > >> >> supported by Mail for Exchange 2.0 > >> >> > >> >> > >> >> --- original message --- > >> >> From: "Rei" <highwaystar91@ ...> > >> >> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: > > Potential > >> >> difficulties offset attractive price > >> >> Date: 16th February 2009 > >> >> Time: 1:09:35 pm > >> >> > >> >> Sht....let it be...if they give us 900, we would be very > > happy!!! > >> >> > >> >> On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 1:07 PM, SyIFA Fund <syifa.fund@ ...> > > wrote: > >> >> > >> >> > Ohh...ML just CAUTIOUS like usual. Underground mining is > >> >> > difficult?come on...ML analyst should go to Aceh and > > Kalimantan and > >> >> should > >> >> > see that underground mining is no longer difficult... just > > hire the > >> >> > Australian to do that. > >> >> > And IF you guys carefully read this ML analyst report, you > > can see too > >> >> many > >> >> > conflicts in her writing. That make me CAUTIOUS > > also..hehe.. .PEACE. > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > Regards, > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > SF FM > >> >> > Where you can trust your fund > >> >> > > >> >> > --- On *Mon, 2/16/09, simon bolenang <simon_bolenang@ ...>* > > wrote: > >> >> > > >> >> > From: simon bolenang <simon_bolenang@ ...> > >> >> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: > > Potential > >> >> > difficulties offset attractive price > >> >> > To: "obrolan-bandar yahoogroups" <obrolan- > > ban...@yahoogroups. com>, > >> >> "saham > >> >> > yahoogroups" <sa...@yahoogroups. com> > >> >> > Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 5:46 AM > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > *Muted reaction to recent gold asset acquisition* > >> >> > ANTM has signed a Heads of Agreement to transfer ownership of > > PT > >> >> Cibaliung > >> >> > Sumber Daya (CSD) from Arc Exploration to ANTM. ANTM will > > settle Arc's > >> >> > US$8mn debt to ANZ. The move should effectively make ANTM the > > sole owner > >> >> of > >> >> > the undeveloped Cibaliung gold mine, in which CSD has a 95% > > stake. While > >> >> we > >> >> > think the price is attractive, our reaction is muted given > > past project > >> >> > delays and > >> >> > mining difficulty. Mining is by underground cut-and-fill > > stoping with > >> >> > decline access. > >> >> > *Cibaliung mining not straightforward, in our view* > >> >> > True, ANTM might get Cibaliung for a cheap price: US$8mn for > > a 95% stake > >> >> in > >> >> > Cibaliung, which has 412,000 oz reserves (US$20.4/oz) . And we > >> >> understand > >> >> > Arc > >> >> > has spent a substantial amount to develop the mine. However, > > considering > >> >> > project > >> >> > commissioning has been delayed for around two years on capex > > overrun, > >> >> some > >> >> > financing difficulty and some development phase delays, we > > are now at > >> >> the > >> >> > "wait > >> >> > and see" stage. ANTM is targeting to spend an additional > > US$35-40mn to > >> >> > bring it > >> >> > into operation in 2H10. > >> >> > *ANTM still largely a nickel company after the acquisition* > >> >> > We view Cibaliung more as a replacement for ANTM's Pongkor > > gold mine > >> >> rather > >> >> > than a significant addition. As of December 2007, Pongkor > > gold reserve > >> >> was > >> >> > 742,750 oz, which we estimate can last for another 3-4 years > > based on > >> >> > historical > >> >> > peak production. By 2011 we expect ANTM to still be largely a > > nickel > >> >> > producer, > >> >> > with nickel contributing about 70% of total revenue. > >> >> > *Our stance: still cautious near term* > >> >> > We have yet to see a rebound in nickel price with LME > > inventory still > >> >> > creeping up > >> >> > and the global economy yet to recover. We await FY08 results > > to get > >> >> fuller > >> >> > details, > >> >> > and indicators to what lies ahead. ANTM has warned of a > > potential > >> >> > derivative loss, > >> >> > which we believe could negatively impact its cash position. > > As of Sep > >> >> 2008, > >> >> > its net > >> >> > cash was ~US$260mn. > >> >> > > >> >> > This message and any attachment are confidential and may be > > privileged > >> >> or > >> >> > otherwise protected from disclosure. If you are not the > > intended > >> >> recipient > >> >> > please telephone or e-mail the sender and delete this message > > and > >> >> > all attachments from your system. If you are not the intended > > recipient > >> >> you > >> >> > must not copy this message or any attachment or disclose the > > contents to > >> >> any > >> >> > other person. > >> >> > > >> >> > E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, error- > > free or > >> >> > virus-free. The sender therefore does not accept liability > > for any > >> >> errors, > >> >> > omissions or consequences which arise as a result of e-mail > >> >> transmission. > >> >> > This message is provided for informational purposes and is > > not intended > >> >> to > >> >> > nor will it create any binding legal relations. If > > verification is > >> >> required > >> >> > please request a hard-copy version. This message should not > > be construed > >> >> as > >> >> > a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or > > related > >> >> financial > >> >> > instruments. > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > > >> >> > >> >> > >> >> ------------ --------- --------- ------ > >> >> > >> >> + + > >> >> + + + + + > >> >> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > >> >> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > >> >> + + + + + > >> >> + +Yahoo! Groups Links > >> >> > >> >> > >> >> > >> >> > >> > > >> > > >> > >> > >> > >> -- > >> Salam ARRAYARRA > >> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- Salam, Korban BUMI? Makan cumi saja!
