ANALIS dan ORALIS :) 2009/2/19 Baso TAHU <tahub...@yahoo.com>
> Analis, analis , analis. Gini cara mainkannya kalo menurut saya. Ada > analis yg suka bohong dan jujur terus , 2 kubu.. Sayangnya mereka suka > switch kubu yg asalnya bohong selalu jadi jujur, dan yg jujur selalu jadi > bohong atau diam. Apalagi dijaman pancaroba dari bull ke bear atau bear ke > bull banyak yg pindah kubu. > > By the way utk ML jaman Bullish dulu untuk ANTM kerjanya SELL mlulu, di > counter pak Sudes, Eka, dll, seingat saya. > Nah Sekarang lagi bear kerjanya masih SELL juga. > > Feeling gw ML sekarang lagi JUJUR.COM <http://jujur.com/> 'mode'. Apalagi > yg analis cewek itu! Kalo lagi bear BEI (jaman BEJ dulu) transaski sepi > mereka jujur2 dan dapat dipercaya. Swear saya banyak simpan riset2 asing dan > saya pantau riset ML dari jaman 2001. Kalo lagi BULL transaksi gede, asumsi > kacau2 tergantung 'pesanan', akurasi kemungkinan cuma 40%, lagi BEAR > biasanya bisa 70-80% benar. Kenapa ML juga lagi sepi transaksi, dan bandar > gede yg gunakan ML juga lagi nggak ada, so mereka bikin honest assesment di > riset utk naikin transaksi. They are the so-called SELL SIDE ANALYSTS > (analis terafiliasi broker)! Suka nonton BARRY KUDLOW di CNBC, dia pernah > bilang justru disaat BEAR analis bisa benar2 jujur, saat Sideways atau Bull > boro2 bisa akurat. Soalnya disaat Bull seharusnya BUY AND HOLD, investor > tend to buy and hold, mau cuan gede mereka harus bikin berita2 aneh2 biar > ada fee, kalo BEAR investor banyak yg lari ketakutan, biar masuk yah > sejujur2nya. > > Dan yg jujur2 jaman Bullish pada kemana yah? > > > > > > --- On *Mon, 2/16/09, Meizal <d.mei...@gmail.com>* wrote: > > From: Meizal <d.mei...@gmail.com> > Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: > Potential di fficulties offset attractive price > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 3:58 PM > > hehehe...iya pak,klo bisa meramal masa depan namanya mungkin bukan > analis tapi ahli nujum :p ( canda pak ) > > saya setuju banget pak emang klo yang namanya analis belum tentu benar,jadi > jangan telen bulat2,lha wong berita apa yang bakal keluar besok aja gak > tau:p dan kalau pun mereka tau saya gak yakin mereka bisa pastiin posisi apa > yang investor bakal pasang ( buy/sell ) waktu lihat data/berita tersebut,dan > berapa besar power dari tiap2 orang nya, toh memang yang mengendalikan pasar > itu kan murni presepsi yang bisa berubah dalam hitungan detik,seandai yang > saya sebut diatas mereka semua bisa pastiin,saya gak yakin mereka bisa juga > memastikan bahwa variabel2 lain nya tetap,contoh harga komoditas nya,atau > mungkin bencana alam,dsb.hehehe > > nama nya juga pasar ada yang jual,ada yang beli,dan tidak ada yang > namanya garansi di dunia ini,karna sifat data nya yang variabel itu...yah > klo saya boleh kasih recomendasi Get used with it,toh dari downgrade bisa > jadi upgrade klo memang variabel nya berubah dan sebalik nya..wong peramal > aja yang jelas2 memposisikan diri sebagai orang yang dapat melihat dan > meramal masa depan,akurasi ramalan nya aja ada yang gak kejadian ( sorry > bukan mo menyepelekan masalah ) apa lagi analis yang jelas2 mapang > disclaimer besar di setiap riset nya dengan penjelasan detail dibawah nya > sehalaman penuh.."analis juga manusia" hehehe > > hehehe...saya kok jadi inget kata kawan saya waktu saya pertama > kali berkenalan dengan pasar modal,dia bilang di sini yang namanya informasi > itu bisa jadi 1000 presepsi,dan 1 data bisa jadi 1000 penilaian yang > berbeda,dan yang lucunya di sini orang2 harus doyan gosip soalnya klo ada > berita gak digosok dulu, lu kagak akan dapet apa2...hehehe, tapi itu realita > lho,ya klo mau liat riset fundamental mungkin bisa coba perhatikan dasar > penilaian nya menggunakan metode analisa apa,karna setau saya banyak sekali > metode yang bisa di pakai untuk mengolah data dan ajaib nya semuanya bener > lha wong ada dasar nya kok...hehehe > > harusnya sih analis itu memang bertindak sebagai expert advisor,orang2 yang > memang fokus nya melakuakn riset dan digaji untuk itu,tugas utamnya memang > ngasih opini,lha klo yang di kasih opini gak mau ikutin toh gak masalah kan > hehehe,orang eksekusi nya ada di tangan masing2 investor..gitu aja kok > repot :p > > peace :-) > > > ----- Original Message ----- > *From:* Cumi Goreng Tepung <cumie...@gmail.com> > *To:* obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> > *Sent:* Monday, February 16, 2009 9:01 PM > *Subject:* Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: > Potential di fficulties offset attractive price > > ada nasabah ml? > coba aja tanya langsung ke analisnya. saya pernah nemu angka yang > menurut saya gak masuk akal di suatu riset keluaran broker saya, terus > saya tanyakan ke analisnya. ternyata angka tersebut SALAH. > > Analis Juga Manusia. > > On 2/16/09, thom chris <thom_chris2000@ yahoo.com<thom_chris2...@yahoo.com>> > wrote: > > ga make sense ahh.. cm naik 8%.. tp downgrade cuma ke 900..hahaha. .. > > > > --- On Mon, 2/16/09, sylar_fang <sylar_f...@yahoo. > > co.id<sylar_fang%40yahoo.co.id>> > wrote: > > From: sylar_fang <sylar_f...@yahoo. co.id <sylar_fang%40yahoo.co.id>> > > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential > di > > fficulties offset attractive price > > To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > > Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 6:01 AM > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ... mungkin FENI I-IV na ANTM mau disabotase ama ML kali > > > > pak ... :) ... so tinggal GOLD aja ... pan GOLD menyumbang less than > > > > 10% dr income na ANTM ... btw kl mau ke 900 sih kita tampung aja .. > > > > ane masih hold neh ANTM yg ane beli di 10xx ... kl turun avg down > > > > aja ... makan dividen gpp deh taun ini ... biasa na dividen na BUMN > > > > lumayan .. apalagi mau election nih ... kali aja ANTM berbaik ati > > > > bagi dividen diatas 50% an dr net income na ... > > > > > > > > .... btw apa gak salah baca pak ? ... udah males ane skrg kl baca2 > > > > riset sekuritas ... apalagi ML yg kl gak di bailout udah bangkrut ... > > > > > > > > :) > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, ARRAY27 <arra...@... > wrote: > > > >> > > > >> Maksudnya ML apa nih. Net income ANTM 2009 diestimasi cuma 8% dari > > > > estimasi > > > >> net income 2008? Enggak kira2 ya. Sekalian saja diestimasi rugi dan > > > >> bangkrut, kayak ML-nya sendiri. Kalo harga saham emang bisa saja > > > > turun ke > > > >> 900, kayak ML guyur bumi ke 4xx-5xx. Tapi kalo laba emitennya yang > > > > diguyur > > > >> tinggal 8% itu gimana caranya? Begitu parahnya kah ANTM??? > > > >> > > > >> 2009/2/16 Cumi Goreng Tepung <cumie...@.. .> > > > >> > > > >> > ati-ati aja, kali aja ada ML's Daisy Suryo strikes back! > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > Salam, > > > >> > Korban BUMI? Makan cumi saja! > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 3:55 PM, Yudizz <y_d...@...> wrote: > > > >> > > > > >> >> Si ML ini belum tahu ya kalo embernya Pak Rei gede banget. > > > > Bukan ember > > > >> >> lagi, udah kaya waduk malah. Kekekek... > > > >> >> > > > >> >> Canda Bos... > > > >> >> > > > >> >> Regards, > > > >> >> Yudizz > > > >> >> > > > >> >> Send from My Nokia Nseries > > > >> >> supported by Mail for Exchange 2.0 > > > >> >> > > > >> >> > > > >> >> --- original message --- > > > >> >> From: "Rei" <highwaystar91@ ...> > > > >> >> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: > > > > Potential > > > >> >> difficulties offset attractive price > > > >> >> Date: 16th February 2009 > > > >> >> Time: 1:09:35 pm > > > >> >> > > > >> >> Sht....let it be...if they give us 900, we would be very > > > > happy!!! > > > >> >> > > > >> >> On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 1:07 PM, SyIFA Fund <syifa.fund@ ...> > > > > wrote: > > > >> >> > > > >> >> > Ohh....ML just CAUTIOUS like usual. Underground mining is > > > >> >> > difficult?come on...ML analyst should go to Aceh and > > > > Kalimantan and > > > >> >> should > > > >> >> > see that underground mining is no longer difficult... just > > > > hire the > > > >> >> > Australian to do that. > > > >> >> > And IF you guys carefully read this ML analyst report, you > > > > can see too > > > >> >> many > > > >> >> > conflicts in her writing. That make me CAUTIOUS > > > > also..hehe.. .PEACE. > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > Regards, > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > SF FM > > > >> >> > Where you can trust your fund > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > --- On *Mon, 2/16/09, simon bolenang <simon_bolenang@ ...>* > > > > wrote: > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > From: simon bolenang <simon_bolenang@ ...> > > > >> >> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: > > > > Potential > > > >> >> > difficulties offset attractive price > > > >> >> > To: "obrolan-bandar yahoogroups" <obrolan- > > > > ban...@yahoogroups. com>, > > > >> >> "saham > > > >> >> > yahoogroups" <sa...@yahoogroups. com> > > > >> >> > Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 5:46 AM > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > *Muted reaction to recent gold asset acquisition* > > > >> >> > ANTM has signed a Heads of Agreement to transfer ownership of > > > > PT > > > >> >> Cibaliung > > > >> >> > Sumber Daya (CSD) from Arc Exploration to ANTM. ANTM will > > > > settle Arc's > > > >> >> > US$8mn debt to ANZ. The move should effectively make ANTM the > > > > sole owner > > > >> >> of > > > >> >> > the undeveloped Cibaliung gold mine, in which CSD has a 95% > > > > stake. While > > > >> >> we > > > >> >> > think the price is attractive, our reaction is muted given > > > > past project > > > >> >> > delays and > > > >> >> > mining difficulty. Mining is by underground cut-and-fill > > > > stoping with > > > >> >> > decline access. > > > >> >> > *Cibaliung mining not straightforward, in our view* > > > >> >> > True, ANTM might get Cibaliung for a cheap price: US$8mn for > > > > a 95% stake > > > >> >> in > > > >> >> > Cibaliung, which has 412,000 oz reserves (US$20.4/oz) . And we > > > >> >> understand > > > >> >> > Arc > > > >> >> > has spent a substantial amount to develop the mine. However, > > > > considering > > > >> >> > project > > > >> >> > commissioning has been delayed for around two years on capex > > > > overrun, > > > >> >> some > > > >> >> > financing difficulty and some development phase delays, we > > > > are now at > > > >> >> the > > > >> >> > "wait > > > >> >> > and see" stage. ANTM is targeting to spend an additional > > > > US$35-40mn to > > > >> >> > bring it > > > >> >> > into operation in 2H10. > > > >> >> > *ANTM still largely a nickel company after the acquisition* > > > >> >> > We view Cibaliung more as a replacement for ANTM's Pongkor > > > > gold mine > > > >> >> rather > > > >> >> > than a significant addition. As of December 2007, Pongkor > > > > gold reserve > > > >> >> was > > > >> >> > 742,750 oz, which we estimate can last for another 3-4 years > > > > based on > > > >> >> > historical > > > >> >> > peak production. By 2011 we expect ANTM to still be largely a > > > > nickel > > > >> >> > producer, > > > >> >> > with nickel contributing about 70% of total revenue. > > > >> >> > *Our stance: still cautious near term* > > > >> >> > We have yet to see a rebound in nickel price with LME > > > > inventory still > > > >> >> > creeping up > > > >> >> > and the global economy yet to recover. We await FY08 results > > > > to get > > > >> >> fuller > > > >> >> > details, > > > >> >> > and indicators to what lies ahead. ANTM has warned of a > > > > potential > > > >> >> > derivative loss, > > > >> >> > which we believe could negatively impact its cash position. > > > > As of Sep > > > >> >> 2008, > > > >> >> > its net > > > >> >> > cash was ~US$260mn. > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > This message and any attachment are confidential and may be > > > > privileged > > > >> >> or > > > >> >> > otherwise protected from disclosure. If you are not the > > > > intended > > > >> >> recipient > > > >> >> > please telephone or e-mail the sender and delete this message > > > > and > > > >> >> > all attachments from your system. If you are not the intended > > > > recipient > > > >> >> you > > > >> >> > must not copy this message or any attachment or disclose the > > > > contents to > > > >> >> any > > > >> >> > other person. > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, error- > > > > free or > > > >> >> > virus-free. The sender therefore does not accept liability > > > > for any > > > >> >> errors, > > > >> >> > omissions or consequences which arise as a result of e-mail > > > >> >> transmission. > > > >> >> > This message is provided for informational purposes and is > > > > not intended > > > >> >> to > > > >> >> > nor will it create any binding legal relations. If > > > > verification is > > > >> >> required > > > >> >> > please request a hard-copy version. This message should not > > > > be construed > > > >> >> as > > > >> >> > a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or > > > > related > > > >> >> financial > > > >> >> > instruments. > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > > >> >> > > > >> >> > > > >> >> ------------ --------- --------- ------ > > > >> >> > > > >> >> + + > > > >> >> + + + + + > > > >> >> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > > >> >> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > > >> >> + + + + + > > > >> >> + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > >> >> > > > >> >> > > > >> >> > > > >> >> > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> -- > > > >> Salam ARRAYARRA > > > >> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > Salam, > Korban BUMI? Makan cumi saja! > > > >
