Mencoba menjelaskan pendapatnya Elaine : 1. *Deflation: *Federal Reserve President of San francisco Janet Yellen bilang kemungkinan akan deflasi.* ***Perhatikan baik2 sinyal deflasi/inflasi dari The Fed maupun omongan pejabat2nya http://www.financeroll.com/in/fundamentals/133978-pendapat-janet-yellen.html
2. *Unemployment (>10%)------> *ya iya deflasi pabrik undercapacity. Dalam bbrp puluh tahun terakhir unemployment all time highnya di hampir 11% yang mungkin jadi resisten. (lihat chart terlampir) 3. *North Korea Crisis*: Ingat insiden *teluk babi* jaman Kennedy mungkin efeknya sama. Semoga damai2 saja, I'm Peace Lover 4. *Unfavored Election Result: *Gak ngerti deh aku soal politik, kemaren incumbent menang banyak yg ngarep IHSG seperti BSE 30 tapi ternyata biasa2 aja 5. *Switch to high quality triple AAA bonds except TIPS -----> *aku gak ngerti blom pernah beli bond 6. *Avoid gold----------->*gold bagusnya klo lg inflasi... klo musim deflasi pegang cash (USD)* * 7. *IDX (along with global market) can decline down to minus 1000 (in 2008, IDX dropped -1800pts!!) ----->*turun 1800 poin aja bisa apalagi cuma 1000 poin. Tapi jujur aja aku gak tau target sampe berapa. Tanya Elaine coba gimana ngitungnya! 8. *focus on US earnings----> *kurang merhatiin 9. *USD/Renminbi---------> *US deflasi ------->USD menguat---->barang cina makin murah (in term USD)----->defisit perdagangan makin besar* * 10. *Bullish, long term 2012--------> aku setuju pokoknya nanti kita jadi negara maju. Indonesia tuan rumah World Cup 2022 * 11. *Btw, Billy is 17, I'm 7 years older. * *PS: Artikel bagus nih * http://blog.fxinstructor.com/what-really-killed-the-rally/* *Ibaratnya gini... klo yg suka trading forex ngerti pasti.. kan ada pair EUR/USD, USD/JPY dll. Nah ada lagi USD/SP500 (atau DJIA atau apalah yg sama). Klo deflasi orang beli USD/SP500 yg artinya buy USD sell stock. dollar naik deh makanya walau katanya amerika krisis . 2009/7/14 Elaine Sui <elainesu...@gmail.com> > > > *Ayy I need to go to my dentist, but okay, here it is:** > * > *Bearish for short term, Q309 (may be extended to Q4). Deflation, North > Korea Crisis, Unfavored Election Result (to the market, obviously), and > unemployment (>10%). * * > * > *What to do: Switch to high quality triple AAA bonds, except TIPS. Avoid > gold. * > * > * > *Worst case scenario: If all issues above happen at the same time, IDX > (along with global market) can decline down to minus 1000 (in 2008, IDX > dropped -1800pts!!), focus on US earnings, and USD vs Renminbi. * > * > * > *Bullish, long term 2012, bullish on all sectors because Indonesia will be > one of the Asian Tigers. I'm still bullish for long term, but I won't let > anyone take my profit. Bullish for long term doesn't mean we have to hold > blindly forever. If fundamentals change, then I must change my strategy > too. There are declines, the difference between me and JT is he's a short > term investor...lolz.. [?]* > * > * > *You know, the economic power is shifting, from the western+eurozone to > Asia, and westerns are basically zionist. If they can't win, then everyone > must lose.* > * > * > *Anyway, thank you Embah for asking. Hope this is clear enough. Btw, Billy > is 17, I'm 9 years older.* > * > * > *Elaine* > * > * > > > > 2009/7/14 jsx_consultant <jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id> > > Ini adalah pendapat pribadi embah tentang analisa2 yg pernah >> dibuat Elaine: >> - Analisa El umumnya bersifat jangka panjang dan didasarkan >> analisa fundamental >> - Analisa El umumnya banyak yang benar dengan berjalannya >> waktu. >> - Analisa El sering Contrarian dengan pendapat mayoritas >> >> Jadi menurut Embah, pendapat El tentang koreksi harus mendapat >> perhatian, kalo soal benar atau tidak, biarlah waktu yg >> menentukan. >> >> Karena prediksinya bersifat jangka panjang, bisa saja pada >> suatu saat nampaknya analisa El salah, tapi pada akhirnya >> bisa saja analisa El yg benar. >> >> Note: >> - Berapa lamasih timeframe koreksi yg diberikan Elaine ?. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------------ >> >> + + >> + + + + + >> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus >> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. >> + + + + + >> + +Yahoo! Groups Links >> >> >> >> > > > >
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