The density of sensor chips seems to have stablised. 5mp for P&S, 6mp for 2/3 frame DSLR, 11-14mp for full frame DSLR. This is the first time that the top resolution digital cameras have stayed stable for a whole year. We may be at the point where there needs to be a breakthrough in IC tech before substancially higher res sensors come out. Prices should continue to drop however.

I find it interesting that no one else seems to have noted this trend. Of course the reviewers may have higher res cameras in hand under non-disclosure agreements.



Chris Brogden wrote:
I think the argument about DSLRs becoming obsolete isn't as stupid as it
sounds to some.  It's not so much that their quality goes down as our
expectations go up.  It was less than five years ago that 1.3MP cameras
were being touted in reputable reviews (and in slightly less reputable
advertising) as producing photo-quality 8x10's.  Then the 2MP's came along
and we saw how much better they were.  Sure, the 1.3MP's still took the
same photos, but now that people had a better frame of reference and
higher expectations, they understandably weren't as happy with 1.3MP
prints.

Now we have a bunch of 6MP DSLRs that produce 2000x3000 pixel images.
Divide that by 250dpi and we're looking at 8x12 prints that could be
considered photo-quality.  If we use 300dpi, now we're down to 6.7x10
prints.  This is assuming that dots and pixels can be roughly equated via
interpolation, but if we count each dot as being made of 3 distinct
pixels, then the maximum photo-quality print size drops even more.

So now we laugh at the idea that 1.3MP cameras can take photo-quality
8x10's, but we brag about how great our 6MP's are at 11x14's and 16x20's.
And yeah, they're probably not too bad.  But when 14MP cameras become
affordable, all of a sudden we'll have a different frame of reference and
we'll start seeing the flaws in our 6MP enlargements that we ignored or
just didn't see earlier.

So no, the cameras won't start taking worse photos, but they'll pale more
and more in comparison to newer models and their limitations will become
more apparent.  Anyone who doubts this only has to look at how fast
computers are improving, and remember that what we're effectively doing is
bragging about our new IBM 286 computers with 33MHz processors, 8MB of RAM
and a 300 baud modem.

chris


On Sun, 19 Oct 2003, Jim Apilado wrote:



When the D30 Canon came out lots of photographers got one.  A year or so
later came the D60 and the D30 owners began unloading their digitals so
the prices came down.  The D60 was superceded by the 10D.  D60 prices
are slowly coming down.  It may be awhile before Pentax comes out with a
newer digital slr (with K/M compatibility?).  I can see some current
*ist D owners trying to unload their "obsolete" cameras for the new one.




-- graywolf http://graywolfphoto.com

"You might as well accept people as they are,
you are not going to be able to change them anyway."




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