Very interesting observations, Mike. I just hope that the films that
survive are not just the common consumer ones.
Bruce Dayton
Sacramento, CA
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mike Johnston" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Wednesday, September 05, 2001 4:52 PM
Subject: Re: Slides vs. digital
> > Sadly, the numbers are against us. The fact that it is slowly starting
to
> > happen is an indicator.
>
>
> Maybe, maybe not, because you can't extrapolate saturation. Mark Twain
wrote
> a funny essay in which he calculated the rate at which the Mississippi
river
> was getting shorter, as the result of engineers shortening "S" loops by
> cutting more direct channels. He ends by marveling that at that rate, by
> 2012 the river would be twelve feet long. (I may have the numbers
misquoted,
> but you get the point.)
>
> Similarly, you can prove that right now, digital is growing. At some
lesser
> rate than its total growth, it's taking customers from film. But what if
> only 80% of current film users will EVER switch to digital? That would
leave
> some market for film.
>
> Similar example: when point-and-shoots were taking over the camera market,
> SLR sales dropped precipitously. It was tempting to say that "at this
rate,
> SLRs will be extinct by 20XX." In fact, there are somewhere between
300,000
> and 1,000,000 SLR buyers who haven't switched over to point and shoots,
and
> that number has stayed relatively stable for a number of years now (even
> during years when the p/s market has grown). It's true that SLRs no longer
> sell in the millions, but it's not true that the SLR has died entirely. As
> we all know. And it hasn't exactly affected the development of the SLR
> adversely.
>
> So it's possible that some "core" of film users may continue to prefer
film,
> no matter how good digital gets. It's possible that some percentage of
> photographers may use both. As the film market shrinks, it may be good to
> remember that we really don't know how MUCH it will shrink.
>
> The other point to remember is that people have been predicting that "film
> will be dead in five years" for at least twenty years. It's a very common
> predicition--everybody seems to like to repeat it. But it's a canard.
>
> --Mike
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