Doug is certainly right that projections of the time at which oil or coal will
run out at present rates of consumption are only part of the story since new
reserves will be found meanwhile. But if Mark is correct the number of reserves
found are unlikely to stave off the inevitable for all that long. However, there
is another factor that I do not really find is at all clearly addressed by Mark
except by his mantra that there are no alternatives. As the crisis builds, and
fossil fuel reserves dwindle, they will become much more expensive and a host of
alternatives will become more economic. Even under capitalism, I do not see why
investment and research will not flow into their development. Many of the
alternatives such as geothermal, wind, solar, etc. will also help alleviate the
global warming increase that might be caused by increased use of fossil fuels, so
that we do not choke as Doug puts it.
Mark also said, I believe in response to my remark that there would need to
be greater regulation and increased profits even as production might decrease. I
might have this wrong but I thought his response was that this would not be
capitalism. I do not understand that. It seems to fall prey to the mythology that
capitalism is free markets, no regulation, and necessarily attempts to increase
production, markets etc. But capitalists certainly can form cartels. THey
certainly can operate under government regulation and are able to increase
profits without increasing production. TV regulation in Canada seems to fit that
bill. The social costs of this may be so large that there would be a socialist
revolution but as Carrol points out
whether this would happen is a political matter not an automatic results of the
crisis. As the masses in the former USSR sink further into poverty, there does
not seem to be any return to any type of socialism as yet. As Mark speaks of
organising perhaps he agrees ultimately with Carrol.. I think that the organising
is likely to be more effective once the crisis develops rather than before it
happens. Once people suffer the inevitable decline in living standards while no
doubt an elite still live in luxury the conditions for revolt will be ripe. You
are supposed to strike while the iron is hot. THe fact that you can prove that
shortly the iron will be hot is not all that likely to galvanise the masses.
Enough of poor metaphors.
Cheers, Ken Hanly
Doug Henwood wrote:
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>
> >There can be no logical doubt that a finite resource will ultimately run
> >out, the quicker the exponential increase in use occurs. (Doug seems to
> >be somewhat illogical on this issue.) I.e. oil/petroleum will ultimately run
> >out. So are we merely debating when, not if?
>
> Of course, which is why I went to the trouble of seeing how long it
> would take to run down existing reserves as present rates of
> consumption growth. (It amazes me sometimes how left discourse so
> frequently requires one to rehearse, even pay ritual homage to, the
> obvious.) I've also said several times that it's more likely we'll
> choke before we burn all the oil that's in the ground. But the point
> I was making about reserves is that it's highly likely that new
> discoveries will continue expand our inventory of known reserves.
>
> On the other hand, maybe oil isn't the nonrenewable resource we
> always think of it as. To avoid giving Don Roper intellectual
> property fits, I'm just posting the beginning of this article.
>
> Doug
>
> ----
>
> >Wall Street Journal - April 16, 1999
> >
> >Odd Reservoir Off Louisiana Prods
> >Oil Experts to Seek a Deeper Meaning
> >
> >By CHRISTOPHER COOPER
> >Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
> >
> >HOUSTON -- Something mysterious is going on at Eugene Island 330.
> >Production at the oil field, deep in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of
> >Louisiana, was supposed to have declined years ago. And for a while, it
> >behaved like any normal field: Following its 1973 discovery, Eugene Island
> >330's output peaked at about 15,000 barrels a day. By 1989, production had
> >slowed to about 4,000 barrels a day.
> >
> >Then suddenly -- some say almost inexplicably -- Eugene Island's fortunes
> >reversed. The field, operated by PennzEnergy Co., is now producing 13,000
> >barrels a day, and probable reserves have rocketed to more than 400 million
> >barrels from 60 million. Stranger still, scientists studying the field say
> >the crude coming out of the pipe is of a geological age quite different
> >from the oil that gushed 10 years ago.
> >
> >
> >Fill 'er Up
> >
> >All of which has led some scientists to a radical theory: Eugene Island is
> >rapidly refilling itself, perhaps from some continuous source miles below
> >the Earth's surface. That, they say, raises the tantalizing possibility
> >that oil may not be the limited resource it is assumed to be.
> >
> >"It kind of blew me away," says Jean Whelan, a geochemist and senior
> >researcher from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts.
> >Connected to Woods Hole since 1973, Dr. Whelan says she considered herself
> >a traditional thinker until she encountered the phenomenon in the Gulf of
> >Mexico. Now, she says, "I believe there is a huge system of oil just
> >migrating" deep underground.
> >
> >Conventional wisdom says the world's supply of oil is finite, and that it
> >was deposited in horizontal reservoirs near the surface in a process that
> >took millions of years. Since the economies of entire countries ride on the
> >fundamental notion that oil reserves are exhaustible, any contrary evidence
> >"would change the way people see the game, turn the world view upside
> >down," says Daniel Yergin, a petroleum futurist and industry consultant in
> >Cambridge, Mass. "Oil and renewable resource are not words that often
> >appear in the same sentence."
