Doug is probably correct that the threat of choking on oil is an impending
danger, but the oil is getting harder and harder to get. The low hanging
fruit is gone. The oil that is now being drilled in the Gulf of Mexico is
deep at the bottom of the sea. No one knows what will happen if a serious
accident occurs there. The oceans, in addition, are being pushed to their
environmental limits -- think of the fishing industry in decline.
I would love to believe that ingenuity will rescue us. We have seen many
surprising technological innovations, but often they too come at a cost.
For example, the water in Silicon Valley is seriously poisoned from the
solvents that the industry uses.
Mark may be wrong that oil will be the ultimate constraint. I suspect
water will come first -- although our economy wastes an enormous amount,
which gives us some wiggle room. In other parts of the world, the people
are note so fortunate.
Doug wrote:
> When Mark started going on about the disappearance of oil a few years
> ago, I called around to a bunch of industry savants, and had several
> on the radio. Mark's opnion is definitely a minority one - which
> doesn't make it wrong, of course. But he doesn't often acknowledge
> this. A guy from the Petroleum Finance Corp. agreed with me when I
> suggested the real danger was that we'd choke ourselves if we burned
> all the oil we have, rather than it running out disastrously soon.
>
> Doug
>
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
