On Thu, Apr 14, 2022 at 10:12 AM Ben Koenig <[email protected]>
wrote:

> -------- Original Message --------
> On Apr 14, 2022, 7:34 AM, Robert Citek < [email protected]> wrote:
> On Thu, Apr 14, 2022 at 12:52 AM TomasK <[email protected]>
> wrote:
> > On Wed, 2022-04-13 at 20:22 -0700, Keith Lofstrom wrote:
> > > Questions for you folks with years of Ubuntu experience:
> > >
> > > 1) How easy/fraught is a dist-upgrade, say 16.04 to 20.04?
> > >
> > It is easy to go from one LTS to the next: 16.04 --> 18.04 --> 20.04
> I used to do that and never had an issue. But I do not have an extremely
> customized set up.
> I first install in a VM to update and verify my install flow, then on a
> > test machine - then I deploy it everywhere. There is plenty of support
> > overlap to do that at my own pace.
> A variation on that theme is to have a thin OS running a hypervisor on the
> bare hardware and run everything else in a VM. VMs make upgrades really
> painless, especially if using tools like Vagrant and a configuration
> manager like Ansible. But even if you’re not using those tools, VMs are
> nice for snapshotting, upgrading, testing, cloning, migrating, and
> reverting, if necessary. Of course, you could always use your favorite
> backup/restore utility, if not using a VM.
> Regards,
> - Robert
>
> https://xkcd.com/1827/
>
> Be careful about survivorship bias. You have to look at dist-upgrade
> failures as a percent of total attempts.
>
> During my internships at Free Geek, I helped implement custom packages
> that disabled all dist-upgrade prompts. For a user base exceeding 10,000
> end-users, fixing failed dist upgrades was a problem we dealt with
> frequently. A lot can go wrong with that process.
>
> I bet they still have the old ticket data if someone wanted to calculate
> their failure rate.


Totally agree.  And that's why I recommend using VMs and/or making
backups.  For the 100's (1,000's?) of times that it works, there's the one
that doesn't.  And that one is gonna hurt. - Robert

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