I'm just saying this. I hope the Sox never spend money on a guy because of his Wins numbers if he has a bad ERA.
That luck stuff always balances out eventually. On Wed, Jul 21, 2010 at 9:34 AM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]>wrote: > I remember a year, and I’m sure there were many more, when Okajima had a > fantastic ERA, but he’d always let in inherited runners. ALWAYS. He was > mediocre as a pitcher, but had a fantastic ERA. > > > > And, recently, as another proof, Wakefield was left in to give up 7 runs in > the first two innings. That does happen where a manager leaves a starter in > when he just doesn’t have it. The pitcher can give up 9 runs in two innings > and it destroys his ERA and it was just a bad day. The rest of his starts > could be 1.5 ERA, but the 9 runs in 2 innings throws it all off. ERA can be > many runs in one game and few runs in ten games. The object of the game is > to WIN. Psychology does play into the game. Guys get up to play behind > some pitchers. Pitching matchups are sometimes chosen by managers when > going into a series. Everything factors in. > > > > This is a standard argument of the stats guys against me (I have feelings, > man. I’m perceiving and feeling, not just a computer or almanac). J > ------------------------------ > > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Beaudoin, John > *Sent:* Wednesday, July 21, 2010 9:17 AM > *To:* [email protected] > *Subject:* RE: Sheesh! > > > > Good point, Ray. > > But, if you think about the contrary, then you might realize that everyone > in the country wanted to see Pedro. > > > > And how many pitchers on any team would you say that about? > > > > I don’t even care to see Sabathia. > > > > Lincecum and the new Amercan League phenom (name escapes me now) are the > two I can think of. > > > > I am happy to see Lester or Buchholz or even Wake. I don’t have a problem > not having a Pedro or Roger on the team. Those types of draws only happen > probably 30% of all baseball years for elite teams. > > > > I still like WINS. You can argue all the reasons all you want. There are > problems with all other stats, too. But if a guy wins 20 games and has a > 4.5 ERA, what are people going to say? “He’s a 20-game winner.” Of course, > guys on this board would argue that the stats don’t show him as a 20-game > winner. > > > > John > > > ------------------------------ > > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi > *Sent:* Wednesday, July 21, 2010 8:22 AM > *To:* [email protected] > *Subject:* Re: Sheesh! > > > > Dan, that's why I say Wins are luck. > > > > I don't believe in the "play better behind a guy" theory. > > > > BTW. Lackey is receiving the second best run support of his career. The > Sox are scoring 5.2 runs per 9 innings of his pitching. > > > > All this comes down to one question in my mind: Am I excited to go see the > guy pitch? > > > > Lester -- sure > > Dice-K-- No. Will actually avoid his games > > Wake--Always fun > > Buchholtz--Yup > > Lackey--Saw him. It was OK > > > > But there are no pitchers like Pedro or Clemens on this team where I feel > lucky to get to a game with them pitching. > > > > On Wed, Jul 21, 2010 at 7:26 AM, Dan DiBiase <[email protected]> wrote: > > I agree that Wins are important, but I don't think they are always a > measure of just the *pitcher's* effectiveness. Sometimes > a team just plays better behind a guy. Maybe it's because he's a fast > worker and keeps the defense on their toes. Or maybe > a ground-ball pitcher and the team has an excellent 'ground ball' defense. > Or maybe they just seem to hit better when a > particular guy is pitching.... Lackey is a good example this year. I don't > think anyone would say he has pitched great, and > he has an ERA of 4.65, yet he is 9-5, which is certainly a good record > (although it can certainly be debated whether it is > good enough for a supposed #1 making over $18 million this year...). > > > > > > Dan D > Central NJ USA > > > > > ------------------------------ > > *From:* "Beaudoin, John" <[email protected]> > *To:* [email protected] > > *Sent:* Tue, July 20, 2010 11:32:16 PM > *Subject:* Re: Sheesh! > > > > ERA can be one horrendous game or a season of terrible middle relief. > > I think the data just provided (referring to Dice K) shows how an outlier > datapoint game throws his ERA out of whack. > > W's are the most important thing. > > Hey, are you going to the game tomorrow? > > > ------------------------------ > > *From*: [email protected] <[email protected]> > *To*: [email protected] <[email protected]> > *Sent*: Tue Jul 20 20:03:03 2010 > *Subject*: Re: Sheesh! > > W&L is just a measure of run support or luck. > > > > It's meaningless. > > On Tue, Jul 20, 2010 at 10:20 PM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> > wrote: > > W's and L's mean more than ERA, don't you think? ERA is a very very very > very good 2nd stat to look at. > > > ------------------------------ > > *From*: [email protected] <[email protected]> > *To*: [email protected] <[email protected]> > > *Sent*: Tue Jul 20 17:53:02 2010 > *Subject*: Re: Sheesh! > > This is why God gave us states. > > > > Dice-K ERA: 4.29 > > > > 4.29 = Meh > > > > And that sums up his season. > > > > Dice-K has a long way to go before I'll get excited about seeing him pitch. > > > > Ray > > > > > > On Tue, Jul 20, 2010 at 7:45 PM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> > wrote: > > That's just not true. Dice K's perceived sins far outweigh the truth. > > On June 7, he threw eight shutout innings. > > That was followed by ... > > 2 runs in 5 IP > 3 runs in 6 IP > 4 runs in 5 IP (an ugly 8 hits and 4 bb) > 2 runs in 6 IP > and last night, 1 run in 6.7 IP > > Prior to the eight shutout innings on June 7, he had given up ... > > 3 runs in 6.7 IP (no walks!) > 3 runs in 4.7 IP (2 hits, but 8 walks!) > 0 runs in 8 IP (1 hit) > > He can still be excruciating to watch, he doesn't go deep into most games > and his first innings have been nightmares, but he hasn't had four straight > pitiful starts (though three of his first four were bad). In his last nine > starts, he's only given up more than three earned runs once (and that was > four). Six of them were "quality" starts. > > Steve O > > > > On Tue, Jul 20, 2010 at 1:01 PM, Larry Rupp <[email protected]> wrote: > > I'm normally the optimist here but last time he had a good game he followed > that with 4 straight pitiful ones so until I see some consistency from him > he's not getting out of the penalty box with me. It's nice to see Beckett > back which leaves Lackey, Wake, and Dice to fight for the 2 starting spots > in a 5 man rotation. > > Sent from Larry's mobile device > > > On Jul 20, 2010, at 12:11 PM, Dan DiBiase <[email protected]> wrote: > > Having basically discounted him this season, preferring to depend on > Lester, Bucky and Lackey, if Dice-K could get > on a nice streak like this, what a benefit that would be. > > > > Dan D > Central NJ USA > > > > > ------------------------------ > > *From:* "Beaudoin, John" <[email protected]> > *To:* <[email protected]>[email protected] > *Sent:* Tue, July 20, 2010 11:57:09 AM > *Subject:* Re: Sheesh! > > He didn't want to pitch to them. Smart move on his part probably. > > He was brilliant. > > > ------------------------------ > > *From*: [email protected] <[email protected]> > *To*: [email protected] <[email protected]> > *Sent*: Tue Jul 20 08:54:10 2010 > *Subject*: RE: Sheesh! > > OK - Admit it. Dice-K was almost enjoyable to watch last night. I have > never seen him more efficient. I actually stayed awake through 7 because I > was enjoying the show. > > > > Funny thing is that he walked only two batters, and both of them were on 4 > straight balls. 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