With all due respect, I only see about 200-400 scalers and that is
optimistic. Here are some observations based on my experience.
1- The best people to estimate the scale population as well as
the overall number of people in S would be the manufacturers. It
would be difficult for SHS to come up with a number of scalers vs non-
scalers because their cars come ready for either one. The sales
figures of the 2-8-0 might be revealing, though. AM would be a better
one since you have to buy scale or non-scale versions of the items
directly.
2- Ever notice that whenever the NMRA holds a national or
regional convention, the layouts available for tours seldom include
more than an occasional S standard layout? If there are 2000 scalers,
where are the layouts? There are usually a few Sn3 layouts proving
that there are more of them than scalers, however I believe that
there are probably only about 1000 or so of them and not 20,000. Once
again P-B-L or Railmaster would be the best source of numbers. I
wonder what the circulation of Sn3 Modeler is?
3- Sn3 is concentrated on Colorado prototypes and there is
little interest in other roads like the EBT and WP&Y. Ask BTS about
EBT sales. I gave a clinic at the NASG 2005 convention about modeling
the EBT in S and only a few folks bothered to show up. The small
number of remaining prototypes i. e. DRG&W, CS guarantees that Sn3
will only appeal to a certain number of adherents. I agree with the
poster that wondered why S scale with all the standard gauge
prototypes available still trails Sn3. Size is important as stated,
but after all, S standard isn't all that much larger that HO.
4- Scale only magazines have a tradition of not surviving, even
in the present day when there are supposed to be lots of new scalers.
If there were 20,000 scalers, any scale only magazine would be a
roaring success. MRN's circulation is around 20,000 and they cover
all of model railroading.
5- S at least should be proud and happy for any growth, since
the hobby is shrinking overall. Have you noticed how slim MR is
getting? (114 pages in the latest issue). They used to have over 200
pages. The WGH was a valiant attempt to stop the bleeding and it
apparently hasn't worked.
Roy Hoffman
www.royhoffman.com/pwrr
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