[amsat-bb] UKube 1 identification confirmed

2014-08-07 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Finally the separation between UKube 1 and AISSat 2 has increased to
about 60 km. And with the telemetry beacon transmitting a continuous
signal, it now became possible to identify UKube 1 using doppler
measurements. It appears that UKube 1 is object 40074, 2014-037F.
So the JSpOC's initial guess appears to be correct.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Dauria DX 1 identified

2014-07-11 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Using doppler measurements I find that Dauria DX 1 is object 40071,
2014-037C.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] UKube 1 identification

2014-07-11 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Doppler measurements suggest that UKube 1 is either object 40074,
2014-037F, or object 40075, 2014-037G. The separation between these
objects is now only 1 s, so no more than 7.5 km.

It is not easy to carry out meaningful doppler measurements because of
the limited transmissions from the beacon in varying modes and both
long-term and short-term frequency drift and other instabilities on the
beacon transmitter.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] DUCHIFAT identified

2014-07-04 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Using detailed doppler measurements I find that DUCHIFAT is definitely
object 40021, 2014-033M.

Operators of DTUSat 2 confirm that their satellite is object 40030,
2014-033W.

So now it is up to Planet Labs to determine which of the objects 40022
and 40023 is FLOCK 1C-10 and which is PACE. The separation between these
satellites is still less than 2 s, i.e. less than 15 km.

From doppler measurements I can confirm that VELOX 1 is object 40057,
2014-034E.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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Re: [amsat-bb] LO-78 Decay Date

2014-06-30 Thread Nico Janssen

Paul,

The JSpOC has mixed up the IDs of the satellites that were launched
from the ISS on February 28. Although we all know that LITUANICASAT 1
is object 39569, 1998-067EN, it is now indicated as 39571, 1998-067EQ.
This object 39571, ARDUSAT 2, is expected to decay on July 2. But
OSCAR 78 will probably decay in August.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2014-06-30 17:20, Paul Stoetzer wrote:

I noticed that AMSAT-UK and the ARRL have both published posts that
state that LO-78 will decay by the end of this week.

That's probably based in part by information I posted on the BB from
satflare.com, which predicts decay on July 2nd
(http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=39571#TOP)

However, the keps they are using appear to be incorrect. They are
showing an altitude of just 226 km. Celestrak keps are showing an
altitude of 317 km. Interestingly, the map view of the satellite's
current position appears to be correct.

SATVIEW's decay predictions seem to be based on the 317 km current
altitude and show a predicted reentry of August 5th.
(http://www.satview.org/decay.php)

I think SATVIEW's prediction is more accurate. Anyone else have any input?

73,

Paul, N8HM
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[amsat-bb] ANTELSat identified

2014-06-28 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Using detailed doppler measurements I find that ANTELSat is now
object 40034, 2014-033AA. Yesterday the JSpOC decided to exchange
the TLE set of object 40034 with the set of object 40049,
2014-033AR. So up to yesterday ANTELSat was object 40049 but as of
today it is object 40034.

Doppler measurements show that DUCHIFAT is almost certainly object
40021, 2014-033M. But at this time the distance between objects 40021,
40022 and 40023 is too small to be absolutely sure. Especially the
temperature induced frequency drift on the downlink signals makes it
hard to do a good assessment of the measurements.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] POPSAT-HIP identified

2014-06-27 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Using detailed doppler measurements I find that POPSAT-HIP is
object 40028, 2014-033U.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] NanosatC-BR1 identified

2014-06-26 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Using detailed doppler measurements I find that NanosatC-BR1 is
object 40024, 2014-033Q.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] QB50p1 and QB50p2 identified

2014-06-25 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Using detailed doppler measurements I find that QB50p1 is object 40025,
2014-033R, and QB50p2 is object 40032, 2014-033Y.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Object IDs

2014-03-08 Thread Nico Janssen


It seems that the JSpOC has changed some of their policies lately.
After the launch of multiple small satellites late last year it took
a long time to get them all identified. Apparently they don't want to
leave all the TBAs in their database for a long time, so now they use
a different approach: they randomly assign the names of all satellites
of a launch to the observed objects and then wait for reactions from
the users of the satellites to see if the assignments are correct.
This is how e.g. the Cubesats, that recently were launched from the ISS,
got 'identified' only a few days after their launch. So of course now
we find that some identifications are wrong.

Doppler measurements clearly show that the following IDs are correct:
Object 39568, 1998-067EM, is LitSat 1
Object 39569, 1998-067EN, is LituanicaSat 1.

I am trying to get these corrected.

In the past the policy was to assign the 'A' object to the main payload
of a launch. Secundary payloads, like Cubesats, would then get 'B', 'C',
etc. So if the main payload initially was linked to the wrong TLE set,
this required some swapping of TLE sets some time after the launch. Now
they have decided to prevent this confusion by simply leaving the main
payload assigned to another object than 'A' if required. Therefore the
GPM satellite now is assigned to 2014-009C and this will not change
anymore.

Regards,
Nico

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[amsat-bb] Re: Object IDs

2013-12-19 Thread Nico Janssen


Another ID can now be added to the list:

39433 2013-066T  HumSat D

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-12-18 17:07, Mike Rupprecht wrote:

Hi Nico,

Thanks. I use #39388 (Object J) for KySat-2 and 393882 (Object C) for
CAPE-2.

73 Mike
DK3WN

-Ursprüngliche Nachricht-
Von: Nico Janssen [mailto:ham...@xs4all.nl]
Gesendet: Mittwoch, 18. Dezember 2013 15:00
An: Mike Rupprecht; amsat-bb@amsat.org
Betreff: Re: [amsat-bb] Re: Object IDs

Hi Mike,

Thanks for the confirmation of the 'tbc's.

This picture shows the measured doppler curve of an overhead evening pass of
OSCAR 73, plotted against the calculated curves for objects
39444 and 39445. These objects were about 11 s apart (i.e. about 82 km).

https://thumb5.wuala.com/previewImage/SharedInfo/Space/AO73_20131216.jpg/?ke
y=IZKufoz9U1Uo

Note the temperature related frequency drift on the beacon transmitter,
which causes frequency deviations when using automatic doppler correction.
To be able to create useful doppler curves it would help if all Cubesats
would transmit a *continuous* carrier signal on a
*constant* frequency...  ;-)

Still a lot of IDs are unknown. Of all the objects from the Minotaur launch,
only three are officially identified:

39380 2013-064A  STPSat 3
39388 2013-064J  SENSE SV1
39392 2013-064N  SENSE SV2

It is suggested that Cape 2 is object 39382 (2013-064C) and that KySat 2 is
object 39383 (2013-064D). These are to be confirmed.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-12-17 22:13, Mike Rupprecht wrote:

Thanks Nico, PA0DLO for pointing me in the rigth direction. I agree
with you the TLE for the cubesats:

39436 2013-066W  Eagle 2 ($50Sat) ok
39438 2013-066Y  Velox PII ok
39439 2013-066Z  First-MOVE ok
39440 2013-066AA CubeBug 2 ok
39444 2013-066AE AMSAT-OSCAR ok :-)
39445 2013-066AF HiNCube ?
39446 2013-066AG UWE 3 ok

Just made a deep analysis with the FunCube TLE (Object AE vs. AF). The
pass was not very high but every seconds I switched between the TLE AE and

AF.

You can see a slightly differnce (only a few Hz) at TCA what leads me
to say
- your're right. FUNCube-1 seems indeed to be Object AE.

http://www.dk3wn.info/p/?p=39682


73 Mike
DK3WN

-Ursprüngliche Nachricht-
Von: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] Im
Auftrag von Nico Janssen
Gesendet: Dienstag, 17. Dezember 2013 14:32
An: amsat-bb@amsat.org
Betreff: [amsat-bb] Re: Object IDs

All,

Further doppler measurements show that TshepisoSat (aka ZACube 1) is
object
39417 (2013-066B) and AMSAT-OSCAR 73 (aka FUNCube 1) is object
39444 (2013-066AE). Therefore HiNCube must be object 39445 (2013-066AF).

It is not easy to get a good doppler curve with many Cubesats because
of the limited transmissions and because of the frequency drift of
their beacon transmitters.

These object IDs from the Dnepr launch seem to be correct, although
some still need to be confirmed (tbc):

39416 2013-066A  Aprizesat 7
39417 2013-066B  TshepisoSat
39418 2013-066C  Skysat 1
39419 2013-066D  Dubaisat 2
39421 2013-066F  Unisat 5
39422 2013-066G  STSat 3
39423 2013-066H  WNISat 1
39425 2013-066K  Aprizesat 8
39427 2013-066M  Triton 1
39428 2013-066N  Delfi-n3Xt
39429 2013-066P  Dove 3
39430 2013-066Q  GomX 1
39431 2013-066R  BRITE-PL
39432 2013-066S  HumSat D (tbc)
39436 2013-066W  Eagle 2 ($50Sat) (tbc)
39438 2013-066Y  Velox PII (tbc)
39439 2013-066Z  First-MOVE (tbc)
39440 2013-066AA CubeBug 2 (tbc)
39444 2013-066AE AMSAT-OSCAR 73
39445 2013-066AF HiNCube
39446 2013-066AG UWE 3 (tbc)

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-12-01 16:25, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

An update on the satellite IDs.

Still no IDs are available for the satellites launched from the ISS
(except TechEdSat 3P) and the Minotaur.

Several IDs have been published for the objects from the Dnepr launch
but many need to be confirmed. Still not all TLEs are released.

AMSAT-OSCAR 73, ZACube 1 and HiNCube were launched from the same ISIPOD.
As they initially were close together, the JSpOC decided to release
only one TLE set for this cluster under object number 39417
(2013-066B). Now the distances between these satellites are slowly
increasing. So the question is which satellite is object 39417.
Detailed doppler measurements show that ZACube 1 is now about 25 s
early compared to the TLE for object 39417, while OSCAR 73 is about
11 s early. This seems to indicate that object 39417 is actually HiNCube.
Hopefully TLEs for OSCAR 73 and ZACube 1 will be published soon.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-11-23 11:32, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

An overview of the presently known IDs for the satellites that have
been launched recently.

ISS JSSOD Cubesat launches
2013-11-19 12:18 UTC
39412 1998-067DA  Pico Dragon ?
39413 1998-067DB  ArduSat 1 ?
39414 1998-067DC  ArduSat X ?
To be confirmed when the objects have more separation.
2013-11-20 07:58 UTC
39415 1998-067DD  TechEdSat 3P

Minotaur 1, Wallops Flight Facility
2013-11-20 01:15 UTC
ORS3 & ELaNa 4: 29 satellites
So far only 4 TLEs published. No IDs yet but probably:
39380 

[amsat-bb] Re: Object IDs

2013-12-18 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi Mike,

Thanks for the confirmation of the 'tbc's.

This picture shows the measured doppler curve of an overhead evening
pass of OSCAR 73, plotted against the calculated curves for objects
39444 and 39445. These objects were about 11 s apart (i.e. about 82 km).

https://thumb5.wuala.com/previewImage/SharedInfo/Space/AO73_20131216.jpg/?key=IZKufoz9U1Uo

Note the temperature related frequency drift on the beacon transmitter,
which causes frequency deviations when using automatic doppler
correction. To be able to create useful doppler curves it would help if
all Cubesats would transmit a *continuous* carrier signal on a
*constant* frequency...  ;-)

Still a lot of IDs are unknown. Of all the objects from the Minotaur
launch, only three are officially identified:

39380 2013-064A  STPSat 3
39388 2013-064J  SENSE SV1
39392 2013-064N  SENSE SV2

It is suggested that Cape 2 is object 39382 (2013-064C) and that KySat 2
is object 39383 (2013-064D). These are to be confirmed.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-12-17 22:13, Mike Rupprecht wrote:

Thanks Nico, PA0DLO for pointing me in the rigth direction. I agree with you
the TLE for the cubesats:

39436 2013-066W  Eagle 2 ($50Sat) ok
39438 2013-066Y  Velox PII ok
39439 2013-066Z  First-MOVE ok
39440 2013-066AA CubeBug 2 ok
39444 2013-066AE AMSAT-OSCAR ok :-)
39445 2013-066AF HiNCube ?
39446 2013-066AG UWE 3 ok

Just made a deep analysis with the FunCube TLE (Object AE vs. AF). The pass
was not very high but every seconds I switched between the TLE AE and AF.
You can see a slightly differnce (only a few Hz) at TCA what leads me to say
- your're right. FUNCube-1 seems indeed to be Object AE.

http://www.dk3wn.info/p/?p=39682


73 Mike
DK3WN

-Ursprüngliche Nachricht-
Von: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] Im
Auftrag von Nico Janssen
Gesendet: Dienstag, 17. Dezember 2013 14:32
An: amsat-bb@amsat.org
Betreff: [amsat-bb] Re: Object IDs

All,

Further doppler measurements show that TshepisoSat (aka ZACube 1) is object
39417 (2013-066B) and AMSAT-OSCAR 73 (aka FUNCube 1) is object
39444 (2013-066AE). Therefore HiNCube must be object 39445 (2013-066AF).

It is not easy to get a good doppler curve with many Cubesats because of the
limited transmissions and because of the frequency drift of their beacon
transmitters.

These object IDs from the Dnepr launch seem to be correct, although some
still need to be confirmed (tbc):

39416 2013-066A  Aprizesat 7
39417 2013-066B  TshepisoSat
39418 2013-066C  Skysat 1
39419 2013-066D  Dubaisat 2
39421 2013-066F  Unisat 5
39422 2013-066G  STSat 3
39423 2013-066H  WNISat 1
39425 2013-066K  Aprizesat 8
39427 2013-066M  Triton 1
39428 2013-066N  Delfi-n3Xt
39429 2013-066P  Dove 3
39430 2013-066Q  GomX 1
39431 2013-066R  BRITE-PL
39432 2013-066S  HumSat D (tbc)
39436 2013-066W  Eagle 2 ($50Sat) (tbc)
39438 2013-066Y  Velox PII (tbc)
39439 2013-066Z  First-MOVE (tbc)
39440 2013-066AA CubeBug 2 (tbc)
39444 2013-066AE AMSAT-OSCAR 73
39445 2013-066AF HiNCube
39446 2013-066AG UWE 3 (tbc)

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-12-01 16:25, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

An update on the satellite IDs.

Still no IDs are available for the satellites launched from the ISS
(except TechEdSat 3P) and the Minotaur.

Several IDs have been published for the objects from the Dnepr launch
but many need to be confirmed. Still not all TLEs are released.

AMSAT-OSCAR 73, ZACube 1 and HiNCube were launched from the same ISIPOD.
As they initially were close together, the JSpOC decided to release
only one TLE set for this cluster under object number 39417
(2013-066B). Now the distances between these satellites are slowly
increasing. So the question is which satellite is object 39417.
Detailed doppler measurements show that ZACube 1 is now about 25 s
early compared to the TLE for object 39417, while OSCAR 73 is about 11
s early. This seems to indicate that object 39417 is actually HiNCube.
Hopefully TLEs for OSCAR 73 and ZACube 1 will be published soon.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-11-23 11:32, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

An overview of the presently known IDs for the satellites that have
been launched recently.

ISS JSSOD Cubesat launches
2013-11-19 12:18 UTC
39412 1998-067DA  Pico Dragon ?
39413 1998-067DB  ArduSat 1 ?
39414 1998-067DC  ArduSat X ?
To be confirmed when the objects have more separation.
2013-11-20 07:58 UTC
39415 1998-067DD  TechEdSat 3P

Minotaur 1, Wallops Flight Facility
2013-11-20 01:15 UTC
ORS3 & ELaNa 4: 29 satellites
So far only 4 TLEs published. No IDs yet but probably:
39380 2013-064A  STPSat 3

Dnepr, Yasny
2013-11-21 07:10:11 UTC
32 satellites
19 TLEs published
39417 2013-066B  FUNcube 1
39427 2013-066M  Triton 1
39428 2013-066N  Delfi-n3Xt

Note that all designations may change later on.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


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[amsat-bb] Re: Object IDs

2013-12-17 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Further doppler measurements show that TshepisoSat (aka ZACube 1) is
object 39417 (2013-066B) and AMSAT-OSCAR 73 (aka FUNCube 1) is object
39444 (2013-066AE). Therefore HiNCube must be object 39445 (2013-066AF).

It is not easy to get a good doppler curve with many Cubesats because of
the limited transmissions and because of the frequency drift of their
beacon transmitters.

These object IDs from the Dnepr launch seem to be correct, although some
still need to be confirmed (tbc):

39416 2013-066A  Aprizesat 7
39417 2013-066B  TshepisoSat
39418 2013-066C  Skysat 1
39419 2013-066D  Dubaisat 2
39421 2013-066F  Unisat 5
39422 2013-066G  STSat 3
39423 2013-066H  WNISat 1
39425 2013-066K  Aprizesat 8
39427 2013-066M  Triton 1
39428 2013-066N  Delfi-n3Xt
39429 2013-066P  Dove 3
39430 2013-066Q  GomX 1
39431 2013-066R  BRITE-PL
39432 2013-066S  HumSat D (tbc)
39436 2013-066W  Eagle 2 ($50Sat) (tbc)
39438 2013-066Y  Velox PII (tbc)
39439 2013-066Z  First-MOVE (tbc)
39440 2013-066AA CubeBug 2 (tbc)
39444 2013-066AE AMSAT-OSCAR 73
39445 2013-066AF HiNCube
39446 2013-066AG UWE 3 (tbc)

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-12-01 16:25, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

An update on the satellite IDs.

Still no IDs are available for the satellites launched from the ISS
(except TechEdSat 3P) and the Minotaur.

Several IDs have been published for the objects from the Dnepr launch
but many need to be confirmed. Still not all TLEs are released.

AMSAT-OSCAR 73, ZACube 1 and HiNCube were launched from the same ISIPOD.
As they initially were close together, the JSpOC decided to release only
one TLE set for this cluster under object number 39417 (2013-066B). Now
the distances between these satellites are slowly increasing. So the
question is which satellite is object 39417.
Detailed doppler measurements show that ZACube 1 is now about 25 s early
compared to the TLE for object 39417, while OSCAR 73 is about 11 s
early. This seems to indicate that object 39417 is actually HiNCube.
Hopefully TLEs for OSCAR 73 and ZACube 1 will be published soon.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-11-23 11:32, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

An overview of the presently known IDs for the satellites that have
been launched recently.

ISS JSSOD Cubesat launches
2013-11-19 12:18 UTC
39412 1998-067DA  Pico Dragon ?
39413 1998-067DB  ArduSat 1 ?
39414 1998-067DC  ArduSat X ?
To be confirmed when the objects have more separation.
2013-11-20 07:58 UTC
39415 1998-067DD  TechEdSat 3P

Minotaur 1, Wallops Flight Facility
2013-11-20 01:15 UTC
ORS3 & ELaNa 4: 29 satellites
So far only 4 TLEs published. No IDs yet but probably:
39380 2013-064A  STPSat 3

Dnepr, Yasny
2013-11-21 07:10:11 UTC
32 satellites
19 TLEs published
39417 2013-066B  FUNcube 1
39427 2013-066M  Triton 1
39428 2013-066N  Delfi-n3Xt

Note that all designations may change later on.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


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[amsat-bb] Re: Object IDs

2013-12-01 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

An update on the satellite IDs.

Still no IDs are available for the satellites launched from the ISS
(except TechEdSat 3P) and the Minotaur.

Several IDs have been published for the objects from the Dnepr launch
but many need to be confirmed. Still not all TLEs are released.

AMSAT-OSCAR 73, ZACube 1 and HiNCube were launched from the same ISIPOD.
As they initially were close together, the JSpOC decided to release only
one TLE set for this cluster under object number 39417 (2013-066B). Now
the distances between these satellites are slowly increasing. So the
question is which satellite is object 39417.
Detailed doppler measurements show that ZACube 1 is now about 25 s early
compared to the TLE for object 39417, while OSCAR 73 is about 11 s
early. This seems to indicate that object 39417 is actually HiNCube.
Hopefully TLEs for OSCAR 73 and ZACube 1 will be published soon.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-11-23 11:32, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

An overview of the presently known IDs for the satellites that have
been launched recently.

ISS JSSOD Cubesat launches
2013-11-19 12:18 UTC
39412 1998-067DA  Pico Dragon ?
39413 1998-067DB  ArduSat 1 ?
39414 1998-067DC  ArduSat X ?
To be confirmed when the objects have more separation.
2013-11-20 07:58 UTC
39415 1998-067DD  TechEdSat 3P

Minotaur 1, Wallops Flight Facility
2013-11-20 01:15 UTC
ORS3 & ELaNa 4: 29 satellites
So far only 4 TLEs published. No IDs yet but probably:
39380 2013-064A  STPSat 3

Dnepr, Yasny
2013-11-21 07:10:11 UTC
32 satellites
19 TLEs published
39417 2013-066B  FUNcube 1
39427 2013-066M  Triton 1
39428 2013-066N  Delfi-n3Xt

Note that all designations may change later on.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


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[amsat-bb] Object IDs

2013-11-23 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

An overview of the presently known IDs for the satellites that have
been launched recently.

ISS JSSOD Cubesat launches
2013-11-19 12:18 UTC
39412 1998-067DA  Pico Dragon ?
39413 1998-067DB  ArduSat 1 ?
39414 1998-067DC  ArduSat X ?
To be confirmed when the objects have more separation.
2013-11-20 07:58 UTC
39415 1998-067DD  TechEdSat 3P

Minotaur 1, Wallops Flight Facility
2013-11-20 01:15 UTC
ORS3 & ELaNa 4: 29 satellites
So far only 4 TLEs published. No IDs yet but probably:
39380 2013-064A  STPSat 3

Dnepr, Yasny
2013-11-21 07:10:11 UTC
32 satellites
19 TLEs published
39417 2013-066B  FUNcube 1
39427 2013-066M  Triton 1
39428 2013-066N  Delfi-n3Xt

Note that all designations may change later on.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: Cornell CUSat Keps?

2013-10-11 Thread Nico Janssen

Colin,

I can confirm that DANDE is object 39267, 2013-055C.

So now the following IDs for the objects of the Falcon 9 launch
are certain:
39265, 2013-055A is Cassiope
39266, 2013-055B is CUSat 1&2
39267, 2013-055C is DANDE
39268, 2013-055D is POPACS (1,2 or 3)
39269, 2013-055E is POPACS (1,2 or 3)
39270, 2013-055F is POPACS (1,2 or 3)
39271, 2013-055G is Falcon 9 R/B.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-10-08 11:54, Colin Hurst wrote:

Nico,
Thanks to some good work by Tetsu JA0CAW, DANDE is currently a good fit to
Object C.
2013-055C
1 39267U 13055C   13280.88171839  .6188  0-0  21045-3 045
2 39267  80.9931 307.0850 0796581 135.6654 231.1187 13.96656656  1151
Downlink is nominally 436748.7 MHz at my QTH.
73
Colin VK5HI.
PS: CUSAT remains a good fit with Object B.


-Original Message-
From: Nico Janssen [mailto:ham...@xs4all.nl]
Sent: Tuesday, 8 October 2013 05:59
To: bstguitar...@gmail.com
Cc: Colin Hurst; Amsat BB
Subject: Re: [amsat-bb] Re: Cornell CUSat Keps?


Detailed doppler shift measurements show that CUSat is either object 39266
or object 39271. Object 39271 appears to be officially identified as the
second stage of the Falcon rocket. If that is true then object 39266,
2013-055B, is CUSat.

On October 6 around 19:30 UTC I measured a pass of CUSat and found that the
difference between CUSat and object 39266 was about 6 seconds, using the
elements set with epoch 13277.72822065.
Besides object 39271 no other objects were near CUSat.

https://thumb6.wuala.com/previewImage/SharedInfo/Space/20131006_1930_CUSat.j
pg/?key=IZKufoz9U1Uo

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-10-03 19:07, Bryce Salmi wrote:

Looks like the DANDE website officially uses 2013-055B too!

http://spacegrant.colorado.edu/images/DANDECelestrakTLE.txt


On Tue, Oct 1, 2013 at 11:00 PM, Colin Hurst 

wrote:



Alan & Bryce,
2013-055B appears currently to be the best fit for both DANDE and CUSAT.
73
Colin VK5HI

-Original Message-
From: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org]
On Behalf Of Alan
Sent: Wednesday, 2 October 2013 04:27
To: bstguitar...@gmail.com; 'Amsat BB'
Cc: CC
Subject: [amsat-bb] Re: Cornell CUSat Keps?

Bryce,

I ran the Keps for all the objects.  Space-Track shows something like
20, which is interesting.  They are already widely dispersed, so
given the low transmission rate, it might be better to wait a few
days until at least some tentative identifications are made.  I
expect DK3WN is on the case.  :)

73s,

Alan
WA4SCA


<-Original Message-
mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] On Behalf Of Bryce Salmi

author.

http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb
<

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[amsat-bb] Re: Cornell CUSat Keps?

2013-10-07 Thread Nico Janssen


Detailed doppler shift measurements show that CUSat is either
object 39266 or object 39271. Object 39271 appears to be officially
identified as the second stage of the Falcon rocket. If that is
true then object 39266, 2013-055B, is CUSat.

On October 6 around 19:30 UTC I measured a pass of CUSat and
found that the difference between CUSat and object 39266 was
about 6 seconds, using the elements set with epoch 13277.72822065.
Besides object 39271 no other objects were near CUSat.

https://thumb6.wuala.com/previewImage/SharedInfo/Space/20131006_1930_CUSat.jpg/?key=IZKufoz9U1Uo

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-10-03 19:07, Bryce Salmi wrote:

Looks like the DANDE website officially uses 2013-055B too!

http://spacegrant.colorado.edu/images/DANDECelestrakTLE.txt


On Tue, Oct 1, 2013 at 11:00 PM, Colin Hurst  wrote:


Alan & Bryce,
2013-055B appears currently to be the best fit for both DANDE and CUSAT.
73
Colin VK5HI

-Original Message-
From: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] On
Behalf Of Alan
Sent: Wednesday, 2 October 2013 04:27
To: bstguitar...@gmail.com; 'Amsat BB'
Cc: CC
Subject: [amsat-bb] Re: Cornell CUSat Keps?

Bryce,

I ran the Keps for all the objects.  Space-Track shows something like 20,
which is interesting.  They are already widely dispersed, so given the low
transmission rate, it might be better to wait a few days until at least
some
tentative identifications are made.  I expect DK3WN is on the case.  :)

73s,

Alan
WA4SCA


<-Original Message-
mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] On Behalf Of Bryce Salmi
http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb
<

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[amsat-bb] Re: FITSAT-1 (NIWAKA)

2013-06-28 Thread Nico Janssen

Takushi,

FITSAT is now around 230 km altitude. It will probably burn up
in the Earth's atmosphere around July 3.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-06-28 17:43, tan...@fit.ac.jp wrote:

Dear Mike san,

Thank you very much for the web-page.
Does the graph mean altitude of shooting star is 140 km?

Best 73
Takushi, JA6AVG

- Original Message -

Dear Takushi san,

all the reports of our group are online -

http://www.dk3wn.info/p/?cat=98


73 Mike
DK3WN



-Ursprüngliche Nachricht-
Von: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] Im
Auftrag von tan...@fit.ac.jp
Gesendet: Freitag, 28. Juni 2013 04:02
An: amsat-bb@amsat.org
Betreff: [amsat-bb] FITSAT-1 (NIWAKA)

Dear Ham friends,

FITSAT-1(NIWAKA) will soon decay.
I appreciate if I could receive the last signal report.
The beacon signal is 437.250MHz (CW).
The last one will be useful to decide the decay position in the world.
73 de Takushi
--
Takushi Tanaka, JA6AVG
FITSAT-project
Fukuoka Institute of Technology


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[amsat-bb] F1 and Bell decayed

2013-05-10 Thread Nico Janssen


Cubesat F1 (38855, 1998-067CR) decayed on Thursday May 9,
around 19:58 UTC.

PhoneSat Bell (39145, 2013-016D) now finally also decayed
on Friday May 10, around 00:58 UTC.

Cubesat FITSAT 1 may be expected to decay by the middle
of June.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: TechEdSat decay

2013-05-05 Thread Nico Janssen


Cubesat TechEdSat (38854, 1998-067CQ) decayed on Sunday May 5,
probably between 03:00 and 05:00 UTC.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-05-03 11:33, Nico Janssen wrote:


The decay of TechEdSat is now to be expected in the evening
of May 4 (UTC).

The satellite is still transmitting.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-04-24 21:52, Nico Janssen wrote:


TechEdSat appears to be quite sensitive to changes in the density
of the upper atmosphere. Small changes in solar activity have a
large influence on the expected decay date of this satellite.
The decay of TechEdSat is now likely to occur sometime in the
first 6 or 7 days of May.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-04-06 18:43, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

Cubesat TechEdSat (38854, 1998-067CQ) may be expected to burn up
in the Earth's atmosphere around April 25.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: TechEdSat decay

2013-05-03 Thread Nico Janssen


The decay of TechEdSat is now to be expected in the evening
of May 4 (UTC).

The satellite is still transmitting.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-04-24 21:52, Nico Janssen wrote:


TechEdSat appears to be quite sensitive to changes in the density
of the upper atmosphere. Small changes in solar activity have a
large influence on the expected decay date of this satellite.
The decay of TechEdSat is now likely to occur sometime in the
first 6 or 7 days of May.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-04-06 18:43, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

Cubesat TechEdSat (38854, 1998-067CQ) may be expected to burn up
in the Earth's atmosphere around April 25.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: [keps] New Satellites In This Weeks KEP Distribution

2013-04-27 Thread Nico Janssen

Ray,

An update on the identifications of the new satellites:

39131 2013-015B  OSSI 1
39132 2013-015C  DOVE 2
39133 2013-015D  AIST 2
39134 2013-015E  BEESAT 3
39135 2013-015F  SOMP
39136 2013-015G  BEESAT 2

NEE-01 (Pegaso), Cubebug 1 (Capitán Beto) and Turksat-3USAT
are in the group 39151 2013-018B, 39152 2013-018C, and
39153 2013-018D. Which satellite is which object is still
to be confirmed.

Two-line elements are available for all these satellites.

The three PhoneSats from the Antares launch have now decayed
or are about to decay.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-04-26 04:35, Ray Hoad wrote:

A lot of activity in the last week!

The week we have added the following cubesat satellites:
OSSI-1 Cat# 39130  Beacon on 145.980 MHz CW and 437.525 MHz 1k2
also has LED optical beacon in morse code
BEESAT2/3  Cat# 39131  435.950 MHz 4k8 GMSK (two separate satellites
real close together for now)
SOMP   Cat# 39135  Downlink 437.485 MHz including CW, 1k2, 9k6 BPSK,
AX25 FSK and AO40 type standard 400bit/s BPSK
GRAHAM Cat# 39142  Phonesat 437.425 MHz using smartphone computer,
using batteries only only good for about a week
BELL   Cat# 39143  Phonesat 437.425 MHz using smartphone computer,
using batteries only only good for about a week
ALEXANDER  Cat# 39146  Phonesat 437.425 MHz using smartphone computer,
using batteries only only good for about a week

Go to http://ww2.amsat.org and click on "AMSAT NEWS SERVICE WEEKLY
BULLETIN" to get details on these new cubesats.



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[amsat-bb] Re: TechEdSat decay

2013-04-24 Thread Nico Janssen


TechEdSat appears to be quite sensitive to changes in the density
of the upper atmosphere. Small changes in solar activity have a
large influence on the expected decay date of this satellite.
The decay of TechEdSat is now likely to occur sometime in the
first 6 or 7 days of May.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-04-06 18:43, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

Cubesat TechEdSat (38854, 1998-067CQ) may be expected to burn up
in the Earth's atmosphere around April 25.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: OSSI-1 Deployed Friday

2013-04-22 Thread Nico Janssen


Two-line elements are now available for all satellites that were
on this launch. Note that OSSI 1 (39131, 2013-015B) is in a low
elliptical orbit, so it will have a short life time.
For the other five satellites, it is not clear yet which of the
ID numbers 39132-39136 belongs to which object.

By the way, also two element sets were published for the Antares
launch. These are probably for the Cygnus mass simulator and the
upper stage of the Antares rocket, objects 39142, 2013-016A,
and 39143, 2013-016B. So we will have to wait for parameters for
the PhoneSats.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-04-20 15:29, Nico Janssen wrote:


Bion M1 is 39130, 2013-015A.
The upper stage of the Soyuz 2 rocket is 39137, 2013-015H.
OSSI 1 is probably 39131, 2013-015B. No element set has been
provided yet for this satellite. It was separated from BION M1
at 16:13:50 UTC on April 19.

The ID numbers 39132 to 39136 have been reserved for the other
satellites on this launch. But these satellites are still
attached to BION M1. They are expected to be separated from
BION M1 in two batches on Sunday starting at 08:15 (AIST and
Dove 2) and starting at 11:00 UTC (BEESAT 3, BEESAT 2 and SOMP).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-04-20 14:41, Mike Rupprecht wrote:

BION ??
1 39130U 13015A   13109.86774677 -.1982  62674-5  0+0 038
2 39130 064.8855 032.0365 0223088 061.7172 336.4641 15.5445839663

OSSI??
1 39137U 13015H   13109.61683023  .00218796  18651-4  10338-2 037
2 39137 064.9052 032.9523 0221255 060.5813 013.8697 15.5503742135

Just 1 minute apart.

73 Mike
DK3WN

-Ursprüngliche Nachricht-
Von: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] Im
Auftrag von M5AKA
Gesendet: Samstag, 20. April 2013 10:23
An: AMSAT BB
Betreff: [amsat-bb] OSSI-1 Deployed Friday

OSSI-1 deployed yesterday evening. Anyone seen any keeps yet ?

Trevor M5AKA
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[amsat-bb] Re: OSSI-1 Deployed Friday

2013-04-20 Thread Nico Janssen


Bion M1 is 39130, 2013-015A.
The upper stage of the Soyuz 2 rocket is 39137, 2013-015H.
OSSI 1 is probably 39131, 2013-015B. No element set has been
provided yet for this satellite. It was separated from BION M1
at 16:13:50 UTC on April 19.

The ID numbers 39132 to 39136 have been reserved for the other
satellites on this launch. But these satellites are still
attached to BION M1. They are expected to be separated from
BION M1 in two batches on Sunday starting at 08:15 (AIST and
Dove 2) and starting at 11:00 UTC (BEESAT 3, BEESAT 2 and SOMP).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-04-20 14:41, Mike Rupprecht wrote:

BION ??
1 39130U 13015A   13109.86774677 -.1982  62674-5  0+0 038
2 39130 064.8855 032.0365 0223088 061.7172 336.4641 15.5445839663

OSSI??
1 39137U 13015H   13109.61683023  .00218796  18651-4  10338-2 037
2 39137 064.9052 032.9523 0221255 060.5813 013.8697 15.5503742135

Just 1 minute apart.

73 Mike
DK3WN

-Ursprüngliche Nachricht-
Von: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] Im
Auftrag von M5AKA
Gesendet: Samstag, 20. April 2013 10:23
An: AMSAT BB
Betreff: [amsat-bb] OSSI-1 Deployed Friday

OSSI-1 deployed yesterday evening. Anyone seen any keeps yet ?

Trevor M5AKA
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[amsat-bb] TechEdSat decay

2013-04-06 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Cubesat TechEdSat (38854, 1998-067CQ) may be expected to burn up
in the Earth's atmosphere around April 25.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: We-Wish decay

2013-03-12 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi Mike,

XATCobeo? Do you mean object 38082, 2012-006F? If this cubesat
continues to drop with its current decay rate, I don't expect it
to decay before the second half of 2015.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-03-12 06:56, Mike Rupprecht wrote:

Hi Nico,

XATCobeo will be the next one - I think end of March.

73 Mike
DK3WN



Nico Janssen  hat am 11. März 2013 um 21:02 geschrieben:


We-Wish decayed this morning, March 11, probably around 02:59 UTC near
48 degrees North, 119 degrees East.

Next cubesat TechEdSat 1 (38854, 1998-067CQ) will burn up in the
Earth's atmosphere, probably by the end of April.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-03-10 14:30, Nico Janssen wrote:


Solar activity has not increased. The decay of We_Wish may be expected
on March 11 around 04:00 UTC (+/- 4 hours).

The satellite is still transmitting.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-03-08 15:54, Nico Janssen wrote:


As solar activity will likely increase slightly in the coming days,
the decay of We-Wish may already occur on Sunday, March 10 (UTC).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-03-05 20:58, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

Cubesat We-Wish (38856, 1998-067CS) will soon burn up in the atmosphere.
Probably the decay will occur on March 13. Of course this depends on how
solar activity develops.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: We-Wish decay

2013-03-11 Thread Nico Janssen


We-Wish decayed this morning, March 11, probably around 02:59 UTC near
48 degrees North, 119 degrees East.

Next cubesat TechEdSat 1 (38854, 1998-067CQ) will burn up in the
Earth's atmosphere, probably by the end of April.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-03-10 14:30, Nico Janssen wrote:


Solar activity has not increased. The decay of We_Wish may be expected
on March 11 around 04:00 UTC (+/- 4 hours).

The satellite is still transmitting.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-03-08 15:54, Nico Janssen wrote:


As solar activity will likely increase slightly in the coming days,
the decay of We-Wish may already occur on Sunday, March 10 (UTC).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-03-05 20:58, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

Cubesat We-Wish (38856, 1998-067CS) will soon burn up in the atmosphere.
Probably the decay will occur on March 13. Of course this depends on how
solar activity develops.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: We-Wish decay

2013-03-10 Thread Nico Janssen


Solar activity has not increased. The decay of We_Wish may be expected
on March 11 around 04:00 UTC (+/- 4 hours).

The satellite is still transmitting.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-03-08 15:54, Nico Janssen wrote:


As solar activity will likely increase slightly in the coming days,
the decay of We-Wish may already occur on Sunday, March 10 (UTC).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-03-05 20:58, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

Cubesat We-Wish (38856, 1998-067CS) will soon burn up in the atmosphere.
Probably the decay will occur on March 13. Of course this depends on how
solar activity develops.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: We-Wish decay

2013-03-08 Thread Nico Janssen


As solar activity will likely increase slightly in the coming days,
the decay of We-Wish may already occur on Sunday, March 10 (UTC).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2013-03-05 20:58, Nico Janssen wrote:

All,

Cubesat We-Wish (38856, 1998-067CS) will soon burn up in the atmosphere.
Probably the decay will occur on March 13. Of course this depends on how
solar activity develops.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] We-Wish decay

2013-03-05 Thread Nico Janssen

All,

Cubesat We-Wish (38856, 1998-067CS) will soon burn up in the atmosphere.
Probably the decay will occur on March 13. Of course this depends on how
solar activity develops.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: 29.351 Mhz odd signal

2012-10-14 Thread Nico Janssen

Paulo,

This is RS 15. See also Mike's page:
http://www.dk3wn.info/sat/afu/sat_rs15.shtml

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2012-10-14 14:50, CT2IWW Paulo Teixeira wrote:

Dear friends,

I've been monitoring for the past two weeks a chirping sound on 29.351 Mhz
that has me baffled. Since I believe it is inside the sat sub-band, I
wonder if there is an old bird that's still up in the air that sends some
kind of telemetry signal around this frequency.

The signal in question consists series of chirps or beeps, even spaced and
at about a rate of two per second. It drifts very slowly at times and the
chirps become longer as it moves down the range. It usually starts around
29352.5 and ends near 29350. 0. However there are times when the signal is
steady and doesn't move. As I write this, the signal just disappeared
around 12:32 UTC at my location, at grid IN51.

The only sat that would be the likely suspect could be RS-15 but I've had
times that I could hear the signal when i'snt up in my sky. I've checked
the AMSAT frequency charts and RS-15 has a CW Beacon downlink on 29.3525Mhz
listed as "semi-operational". This frequency range is also within SEDsat's
OSCAR-33 transponder downlink but is listed as non-operational.

I've made a small movie a few days ago, that is published on youtube, here:
http://youtu.be/qMv2-Rx6LAE

I would appreciate any comments or insights the list might have on this
matter.

73 de CT2IWW, Paulo
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[amsat-bb] Re: FITSAT 1 is object 38853

2012-10-11 Thread Nico Janssen

Mike,

You are probably right. I'll also try my measurement method on
those satellites. But their AFSK signals are not so suitable for
this type of measurement. In this case your method works better.

If you look at the mean anomaly and argument of perigee in the
group of 2-line element sets for these Cubesats, you can see that
there are actually two groups: 38852 and 38856 (let's say group A)
and 38853, 38854 and 38855 (group B). We know that the Cubesats
were launched in two groups at different times and at different
points in the orbit of the ISS. This means that WeWish and Raiko
must be in group A and the other three satellites must be in
group B.

So if TechEdSat is 38854, WeWish is 38856 and FITSAT 1 is 38853,
then we can conclude that Raiko is 38852 and F 1 is 38855.

So to summarise the identifications for these Cubesats:
38852 = Raiko
38853 = FITSAT 1
38854 = TechEdSat
38855 = F 1
38856 = WeWish

Obviously this is only valid if the 2-line element sets are not
re-assigned again to different object numbers. This has happened
in the first days after the launch from the ISS and it may happen
again...

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2012-10-10 22:24, Mike Rupprecht wrote:

Hi Nico,

yes - and TechEdSat is #38854 and We-Wish is #38856...

73 Mike
DK3WN


-Ursprüngliche Nachricht-
Von: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] Im
Auftrag von Nico Janssen
Gesendet: Mittwoch, 10. Oktober 2012 21:33
An: Amsat
Betreff: [amsat-bb] FITSAT 1 is object 38853

Hi,

Using very accurate dopplershift measurements, I found that FITSAT 1 is
object 38853, 1998-067CP.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] FITSAT 1 is object 38853

2012-10-10 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi,

Using very accurate dopplershift measurements, I found that
FITSAT 1 is object 38853, 1998-067CP.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: ISS spacewalk, satellite to be released?

2012-08-21 Thread Nico Janssen


The sphere-shaped satellite was hand-launched at 18:29 UTC on August 20
during a Russian spacewalk. It is called Sfera and is also known as
TEKh-44 and as Vektor-T. It is a steel ball with diameter 53 cm and
mass 9.2 kg. It is to burn up in the atmospere 2 to 5 months from now.

It will be an interesting satellite for practicing decay predictions.
It is object 38751 or 1998-067CM.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2012-08-20 19:43, Mark L. Hammond wrote:

Okay--which small satellite is going to be released?  I've lost track...

from www.nasa.gov :

"International Space Station Expedition 32 Commander Gennady Padalka
and Flight Engineer Yuri Malenchenko of the Russian Federal Space
Agency have begun a planned 6 1/2-hour spacewalk.

The pair will move the Strela-2 hand-operated crane from the Pirs
docking compartment to the Zarya module, preparing Pirs for its
replacement with a new laboratory and docking module. They will also
deploy a small satellite and install debris shields on the Zvezda
module."


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[amsat-bb] RS 40 is object 38735

2012-08-10 Thread Nico Janssen


Doppler shift measurements show that RS 40 (alias Yubileiny 2,
alias MiR) is object 38735 (2012-041C). This is now also confirmed
by Space-Track.

Object 38736 is Gonets M04.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

2012-01-04 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi,

Unfortunately my previous message did not make it through the BB
because it was down.

As expected, ARISSat 1 has now decayed. According to the first
"Final Report" of USSTRATCOM their last decay prediction was at
07:00 UTC +/- 3 hours on January 4, 2012, during an ascending
pass in orbit 2411 when the satellite was near 12.7 S, 354.3 E.
The latest report from Aerospace shows their decay prediction
at 07:40 UTC ± 100 minutes on January 4, 2012.

Since USSTRATCOM usually issues two or three "Final Reports",
we have to wait for the real final verdict.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2012-01-03 21:39, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My updated (and probably last) prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 09:00 UTC ± 5 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 05:34 UTC ± 11 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:35 UTC ± 4 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

For those who would like to track ARISSat 1 till the very end, but
who do not have access to the latest orbital data, I have generated
the following two-line element sets.

After 2012-01-04, 01:10 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK 12004.04907143 .10590547 82197-1 80387-3 0 94757
2 37772 51.6192 213.1232 0005039 247.4614 112.4853 16.39580411 24076

After 2012-01-04, 02:35 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK 12004.10999442 .12344606 11664+0 78957-3 0 94751
2 37772 51.6188 212.7785 0004712 247.7188 112.2313 16.40971462 24087

After 2012-01-04, 04:05 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK 12004.17086135 .14945730 18056+0 77289-3 0 94750
2 37772 51.6183 212.4335 0004334 247.9765 111.9774 16.42620927 24090

After 2012-01-04, 05:30 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK 12004.23166040 .19278117 32316+0 63018-3 0 94754
2 37772 51.6178 212.0879 0003875 248.2346 111.7241 16.44675832 24107

After 2012-01-04, 07:00 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK 12004.29237155 .28278236 77737+0 51650-3 0 94753
2 37772 51.6170 211.7417 0003268 248.4933 111.4719 16.47481875 24116

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2012-01-02 16:38, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 18:00 UTC ± 12 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 12:06 UTC ± 24 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC ± 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2012-01-01 15:49, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 10:00 UTC +/- 18 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 07:46 UTC +/- 48 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC +/- 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-31 15:46, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.

As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air
around the satellite.

Happy New Year to all!

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
activity really increase before the end of December,
as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
days earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.

As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.

So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual dec

[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

2012-01-04 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi,

My updated (and probably last) prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 09:00 UTC ± 5 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 05:34 UTC ± 11 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:35 UTC ± 4 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

For those who would like to track ARISSat 1 till the very end, but
who do not have access to the latest orbital data, I have generated
the following two-line element sets.

After 2012-01-04, 01:10 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK  12004.04907143  .10590547  82197-1  80387-3 0 94757
2 37772  51.6192 213.1232 0005039 247.4614 112.4853 16.39580411 24076

After 2012-01-04, 02:35 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK  12004.10999442  .12344606  11664+0  78957-3 0 94751
2 37772  51.6188 212.7785 0004712 247.7188 112.2313 16.40971462 24087

After 2012-01-04, 04:05 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK  12004.17086135  .14945730  18056+0  77289-3 0 94750
2 37772  51.6183 212.4335 0004334 247.9765 111.9774 16.42620927 24090

After 2012-01-04, 05:30 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK  12004.23166040  .19278117  32316+0  63018-3 0 94754
2 37772  51.6178 212.0879 0003875 248.2346 111.7241 16.44675832 24107

After 2012-01-04, 07:00 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK  12004.29237155  .28278236  77737+0  51650-3 0 94753
2 37772  51.6170 211.7417 0003268 248.4933 111.4719 16.47481875 24116

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2012-01-02 16:38, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 18:00 UTC ± 12 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 12:06 UTC ± 24 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC ± 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2012-01-01 15:49, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 10:00 UTC +/- 18 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 07:46 UTC +/- 48 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC +/- 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-31 15:46, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.

As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air
around the satellite.

Happy New Year to all!

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
activity really increase before the end of December,
as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
days earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.

As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.

So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.

73,
Nico PA0DLO



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[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

2012-01-02 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi,

My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 18:00 UTC ± 12 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 12:06 UTC ± 24 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC ± 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2012-01-01 15:49, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 10:00 UTC +/- 18 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 07:46 UTC +/- 48 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC +/- 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-31 15:46, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.

As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air
around the satellite.

Happy New Year to all!

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
activity really increase before the end of December,
as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
days earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.

As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.

So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.

73,
Nico PA0DLO



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[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

2012-01-01 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi,

My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 10:00 UTC +/- 18 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 07:46 UTC +/- 48 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC +/- 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-31 15:46, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.

As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air
around the satellite.

Happy New Year to all!

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
activity really increase before the end of December,
as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
days earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.

As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.

So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.

73,
Nico PA0DLO



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[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

2011-12-31 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi,

My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.

As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air
around the satellite.

Happy New Year to all!

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
activity really increase before the end of December,
as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
days earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.

As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.

So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.

73,
Nico PA0DLO



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[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat : only a few more days !

2011-12-29 Thread Nico Janssen


Some additional information can be found here:
http://i88.photobucket.com/albums/k166/suzymchale/iss-ref/issref2010prop.jpg

So engines on the Service Module of the ISS can be used
but usually Progress, ATV and HTV engines are used for
reboosts.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-29 00:45, Mark Lunday wrote:

Periodic reboosts are thus necessary every few months, usually undertaken by
a Progress cargo ship docked to the Russian segment, or an Orbiter when
docked to Destiny.


http://suzymchale.com/ruspace/issorbit.html


-Original Message-
From: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] On
Behalf Of Wayne Estes
Sent: Wednesday, December 28, 2011 4:16 PM
To: amsat-bb@amsat.org
Subject: [amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat : only a few more days !

Out of curiosity, what method is used to keep the International Space
Station from burning up?

I know that periodic boosts are done to raise the orbit.  Is that done
with rocket engines built into the space station?  If so, it seems that
storage and eventual reloading of the fuel would be difficult and high-risk.

Or is the ISS boosted using the engines of a docked vehicle?  That seems
like it would have its own set of complications.

Wayne Estes W9AE
Oakland, Oregon, USA, CN83ik
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[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

2011-12-22 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi,

My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
activity really increase before the end of December,
as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
days earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.

As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.

So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.

73,
Nico PA0DLO



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[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

2011-12-11 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi,

Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.

As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.

So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.

73,
Nico PA0DLO



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[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

2011-11-30 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi John,

A 100 % correlation between the decay rate and the daily solar
flux values is not to be expected. But there is a relation
with the longer term average solar flux values.

Furthermore, not only the solar flux (actually the UV radiation
levels) but also variations in the solar wind, in combination
with the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field,
influence the decay rate.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-28 23:11, John Heath wrote:

Hi Nico,

Good to see postings on this topic.

I plotted daily change in Mean Motion, and then plotted Solar Flux for the same 
period. (15days).
It'snot obvious from the shapes of the two graphs that SF is producing the 
daily variation.
I tried the correlation function in Excel which returned a figure of -0.54 for 
the two data sets. ( 1= perfect correlation)

Fairly new to "orbital decay predictions" so would be interested in any 
comments you may have, or anyone else on the list who is knowledeable on this subject.

73 John G7HIA


____
From: Nico Janssen
To: amsat-bb@amsat.org
Sent: Monday, 28 November 2011, 20:36
Subject: [amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

Hi,

With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.

As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.

So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.

73,
Nico PA0DLO



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[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

2011-11-28 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi,

With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.

As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:

Hi,

So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.

So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.

73,
Nico PA0DLO



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[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

2011-11-18 Thread Nico Janssen

Hi,

So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.

So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-11-16 20:28, Fabio Azzarello wrote:

Hello Everybody,
I totally agree with you James... the process is a continuous evolution.

I did my prediction on October 6th for the "Chicken Little Competition" and
my date was January 23rd 2012.

It surprisingly agrees with your prediction done almost one month later,
this make me think that my assumptions were right, up to now at least.


73s
Fabio
IW8QKU/5


Hi Jim,

Thanks for the update on your AMSAT Journal article.
There are several people on the bb who are following this topic and are
busy
plotting data.
Any futher thoughts you have, as we move towards January would, I am sure
be of
interest.

73 John G7HIA





From: DeYoung James
To: amsat-bb
Sent: Tuesday, 15 November, 2011 17:29:31
Subject: [amsat-bb] ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

Greetings,

First, thank you Mineo for reading the AMSAT Journal and making several of
my
papers available
on your web site.
My AMSAT Journal
paper published in the March/April 2011 issue is actually still fairly valid
for the scenarios shown in the paper. The solar flux has turned out to be
somewhat higher than was used/predicted in the paper. This has caused the
atmospheric densities to be higher which results in higher decay rates.
When I
wrote the paper I had this nagging feeling that stopping the
release height
scenarios at 370-km was not going to be high enough. We are very fortunate
that
the ISS was boosted to such a height before release of ARISSat-1 and not
after
release!

There is a
valuable lesson, I think, to be made with respect to predicting satellite
decay
dates far into the future. The future state of the atmosphere, i.e. the
atmospheric density that the satellite will pass through is poorly
predictable
in the long-term, say starting greater than a week or two into the future.
Predictions of satellite decay dates months in the future should be
evaluated with the understanding that your date of prediction errors may be
large. The errors
are due to the future uncertainties of the orbital path which
grow quickly with time in a prediction. The atmospheric density is not the
only
source of error. Your orbit model, the integrator, and the accounting of
the
gravitational and
drag forces among others will affect your results.
Predictions of
satellite decay dates are not do-and-forget. The general process is to make
a
prediction, get new measured observations of the height in the future, and
at
some point re-do your prediction when the errors become significant to you.
With that all
said here is my current prediction using the same tools used in the AMSAT J.
paper and produced as of 2011 November 13th. The decay of ARISSat-1 (37772)
will happen nominally on 2012 January 30th with a 10% rule-of-thumb error
allowance of 18 days around this date. The
errors may be larger than the rule-of-thumb indicates!
Jim, N8OQ
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[amsat-bb] Re: Life Expectancy ARISat-1

2011-08-07 Thread Nico Janssen
On 2011-08-07 09:34, Phil Karn wrote:
> On 8/6/11 8:55 PM, James wrote:
>>
>> Thank you for your informative contribution..
>>
>> Anyone with a real answer?
>
> Well, an educated guess can be made by looking at a plot of ISS altitude
> vs time:
>
> http://www.heavens-above.com/IssHeight.aspx
>
> The ISS is periodically reboosted, accounting for the sudden jumps in
> this sawtooth-like graph. Obviously ARISSat-1 won't be reboosted, so if
> you extrapolate the downward-sloping parts of the graph you can get a
> rough idea of what will happen.
>
> The ISS orbital decay rate varies with changes in upper atmospheric
> density with solar activity, but also because of changes in its attitude
> and the operation of the solar panels.
>
> The orbital decay rate also depends on qthe ballistic coefficient of the
> object. This has units of mass divided by area -- the mass of the object
> divided by the cross-sectional area it presents in its direction of
> flight. The larger the ballistic coefficient, the less its deceleration
> from drag as it flies through the thin upper atmosphere.
>
> The ISS probably has a larger ballistic coefficient than any other
> satellite simply because it's so huge. The volume of most objects
> increases as the cube of the size while the cross-sectional area
> increases with the square. Since mass is usually a function of volume, a
> large object will generally have a higher ballistic coefficient and last
> longer in a given orbit than a small object.
>
> Obviously there are exceptions to the "large lives longer" rule such as
> the "Echo" balloons. The actual ballistic coefficient for any given
> satellite has to be computed from its actual mass and dimensions and its
> orientation relative to its velocity vector. The ISS is a huge
> satellite, but it also has lightweight solar wings that greatly increase
> its cross-sectional area without increasing its mass very much, so they
> decrease its ballistic coefficient somewhat.
>
> ARISSat-1 is far smaller than the ISS, but it is fairly heavy for its
> size and it lacks large solar wings that create a lot of drag. This will
> reduce its decay rate, but it will still probably decay more quickly
> than the ISS.
>
> It was tossed out the back of the ISS against the velocity vector, and
> that immediately put it in a lower energy orbit with a higher mean
> motion. But any further increase in mean motion will be due to orbital
> decay, and from that we should be able to estimate its ballistic
> coefficient and how it will likely behave in the future. Determining an
> exact lifetime would be difficult because of the difficulty of
> predicting solar activity, but a good estimate can probably be made.
>
> --Phil
>

Actually the TLEs give you the values for the drag (First Time
Derivative of the Mean Motion) and for the ballistic coefficient
(BSTAR drag term). Note that in the TLEs the definition of the
ballistic coefficient is the inverse of Phil's definition, i.e.
the higher the BSTAR value, the higher the drag.

When comparing the latest TLE sets for the ISS and for ARISSat-1,
it appears that the drag for the satellite is roughly twice as
high as for the ISS. But since the values for the drag vary a lot
from one TLE set to the next, it helps to use average values over
a number of TLE sets.

73,
Nico PA0DLO

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[amsat-bb] Re: RS-38?

2010-01-03 Thread Nico Janssen
Hi,

Mike and I discussed this offline. Mike now agrees with the
contents of my earlier posting. So to prevent further confusion,
let me repeat:

RS38 is NOT Ugatusat, but
RS38 = RS28 = Universitetsky 2 = Tatiana 2 = 35869 = 2009-049E.


Meanwhile we are looking for contact persons in Russia who can
provide further information on satellites like RS22, RS30 and RS38.
Anybody?

73,
Nico PA0DLO


Mike Rupprecht wrote:
> Nico,
> 
> Happy New Year! How did you know about that?
> 
> The received CW telemetry on 435.490 MHz belongs to the Object #35869 - this
> is UGATUSat. See spacetrack.org:
> 
> 35869 UGATUSAT2009-049E   CIS 2009-09-17  TTMTR
> 101.2798.78   823 815 0.3263
> 
> Telemetry :
> rs38 ubs202 uab188 ibs16 iab149 isp38 tab157 tsep146 tuf0 tbi167 tspa162
> tspb255 mcon69 sma116 smb104 mra11 mrb14
> rs38 ubs205 uab191 ibs16 iab154 isp42 tab157 tsep146 tuf0 tbi167 tspa178
> tspb255 mcon69 sma110 smb105 mra11 mrb14
> 
> 
> The Object #35868 is TATIANA 2 (aka Universitetsky 2) and is sending CW
> telemetry with RS28.
> 
> rs28 ubs157 uaba159 uabb159 ibs5 iaba125 iabb125 ispa0 ispb125 taba129
> tabb126 tsep131 mcon69 sma153 smb135 mra6 mrb30
> rs28 ubs162 uaba173 uabb169 ibs4 iaba133 iabb134 ispa1 ispb133 taba129
> tabb126 tsep131 mcon69 sma151 smb135 mra6 mrb30
> 
> Both satellites are more than 12 minutes apart!
> 
> 73, Mike
> DK3WN
> 
> 
>  
> 
> -Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
> Von: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] Im
> Auftrag von Nico Janssen
> Gesendet: Freitag, 1. Januar 2010 18:40
> An: Elan Portnoy
> Cc: amsat-bb@amsat.org
> Betreff: [amsat-bb] Re: RS-38?
> 
> Elan,
> 
> RS38 is the satellite Universitetsky 2 alias Tatiana 2, that was
> launched on September 17 from Baikonur, together with Ugatusat.
> Initially it identified itself as 'RS28'. But reports from Moscow
> called it 'RS38'. Now the satellite also has started to identify
> as 'RS38'.
> 
> A couple of weeks after launch the kepler sets were mixed up.
> Initially RS38 was 35868, 2009-049D. But now RS38 is 35869,
> 2009-049E. (Probably Ugatusat is now 35868.)
> 
> RS38 can transmit CW and various digital modes on a number of
> frequencies between 435.260 and 435.490 MHz. The digital modes
> are probably only active when the satellite is within range of
> the command station in Russia. The CW telemetry recently showed
> up mostly on 435.490 MHz.
> 
> Happy new year.
> 
> 73,
> Nico PA0DLO
> 
> 
> Elan Portnoy wrote:
>> I seem to have trouble finding data on this bird. Can someone point me to
> keps, etc. so I can load her into SatPC?
>> Thanks,
>> Elan - WB2IOL
>>
>> --- On Thu, 12/31/09, Andrew Rich  wrote:
>>
>>> From: Andrew Rich 
>>> Subject: [amsat-bb]  Working my way thru the birds
>>> To: amsat-bb@amsat.org
>>> Date: Thursday, December 31, 2009, 5:58 AM
>>> Using my new sat_reporter
>>> page   
>>>
>>> http://vk4tec.no-ip.org/sat_report/
>>>
>>> Andrew Rich VK4TEC
>>> ___
>>> Sent via amsat...@amsat.org.
>>> Opinions expressed are those of the author.
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[amsat-bb] Re: RS-38?

2010-01-01 Thread Nico Janssen
Elan,

RS38 is the satellite Universitetsky 2 alias Tatiana 2, that was
launched on September 17 from Baikonur, together with Ugatusat.
Initially it identified itself as 'RS28'. But reports from Moscow
called it 'RS38'. Now the satellite also has started to identify
as 'RS38'.

A couple of weeks after launch the kepler sets were mixed up.
Initially RS38 was 35868, 2009-049D. But now RS38 is 35869,
2009-049E. (Probably Ugatusat is now 35868.)

RS38 can transmit CW and various digital modes on a number of
frequencies between 435.260 and 435.490 MHz. The digital modes
are probably only active when the satellite is within range of
the command station in Russia. The CW telemetry recently showed
up mostly on 435.490 MHz.

Happy new year.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


Elan Portnoy wrote:
> I seem to have trouble finding data on this bird. Can someone point me to 
> keps, etc. so I can load her into SatPC?
> 
> Thanks,
> Elan - WB2IOL
> 
> --- On Thu, 12/31/09, Andrew Rich  wrote:
> 
>> From: Andrew Rich 
>> Subject: [amsat-bb]  Working my way thru the birds
>> To: amsat-bb@amsat.org
>> Date: Thursday, December 31, 2009, 5:58 AM
>> Using my new sat_reporter
>> page   
>>
>> http://vk4tec.no-ip.org/sat_report/
>>
>> Andrew Rich VK4TEC
>> ___
>> Sent via amsat...@amsat.org.
>> Opinions expressed are those of the author.
>> Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur
>> satellite program!
>> Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb
>>
> 
> ___
> Sent via amsat...@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author.
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> 
> 
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