Re: ANOVA and regression

2001-05-30 Thread jim clark

Hi

On 29 May 2001, Alex Yu wrote:
 Does anyone know any book/paper/website about teaching the relationship 
 between ANOVA and regression? I have Data Analysis for Research Designs 
 by Keppel. I also seached www.jstor.org but could not find anything.
 
 I am interested in seeing what approaches have been used to illustrate 
 how ANOVA can be expressed in regression and vice versa in a teacher's 
 perspective. Thanks in advance.

A good brief introduction is A. L. Edwards 1979 Multiple
Regression and the Analysis of Variance and Covariance by W. H.
Freeman.  I believe I also had a second edition, although I don't
see it anywhere on my shelves.  Perhaps in the mid 1980s?

Best wishes
Jim


James M. Clark  (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology(204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg  4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba  R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA  http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark




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Re: The False Placebo Effect

2001-05-25 Thread jim clark

Hi

On 24 May 2001, David Heiser wrote:
 Be careful on your assumptions in your models and studies!
 ---
 Placebo Effect An Illusion, Study Says
 By Gina Kolata
 New York Times
 (Published in the Sacramento Bee, Thursday, May 24, 2001)
...
 He and Gotzsche began looking for well-conducted studies that divided
 patients into three groups, giving one a real medical treatment, one a
 placebo and one nothing at all. That was the only way, they reasoned, to
 decide whether placebos had any medical effect.
 
 They found 114, published between 1946 and 1998. When they analyzed the
 data, they could detect no effects of placebos on objective measurements,
 like cholesterol levels or blood pressure.

Was there some reason that they did not include studies with only
2 groups: no treatment and placebo?  Only those two groups are
necessary to determine whether placebo differs from no treatment.

Best wishes
Jim


James M. Clark  (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology(204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg  4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba  R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA  http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark




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Re: A regressive question

2001-05-16 Thread jim clark

Hi

On 15 May 2001, Alan McLean wrote:
 The usual test for a simple linear regression model is to test whether
 the slope coefficient is zero or not. However, if the slope is very
 close to zero, the intercept will be very close to the dependent
 variable mean, which suggests that a test could be based on the
 difference between the estimated intercept and the sample mean.

Would this not depend on the scale being used?  If the predictor
was some scale on which the normal range of values was quite
large (e.g., GRE scores?), then the value at 0 might be some
distance from the mean of Y even given a very shallow slope.  So
the test would somehow have to adjust for this; that is, the
standard error of the difference from the mean of Y would have to
vary as a function of the distance of 0 from the mean of X. And
presumably the test should produce the equivalent results to the
normal test of the slope. It would be interesting to see if there
is such a test.  Could it be related to the equations for
confidence interval for predicted Y given X?  There are separate
formulas for individual and group predictions and the widths do
vary with distance from the mean of X.

Best wishes
Jim


James M. Clark  (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology(204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg  4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba  R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA  http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark




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Re: errors in journal articles

2001-05-04 Thread jim clark

Hi

On 3 May 2001, Warren Sarle wrote:
 Joel Best is a professor of sociology and criminal
 justice at the University of Delaware. This essay is
 excerpted from _Damned Lies and Statistics:
 Untangling Numbers From the Media, Politicians, and
 Activists_, just published by the University of
 California Press 
 So the prospectus began with this (carefully footnoted)
 quotation: Every year since 1950, the number of American
 children gunned down has doubled. I had been invited to
 serve on the student's dissertation committee. When I read
 the quotation, I assumed the student had made an error in
 copying it. I went to the library and looked up the article
 the student had cited. There, in the journal's 1995 volume,
 was exactly the same sentence: Every year since 1950, the
 number of American children gunned down has doubled.
 This quotation is my nomination for a dubious distinction: I think it may be
 the worst -- that is, the most inaccurate -- social statistic ever.
 Full text:
 http://chronicle.com/free/v47/i34/34b00701.htm

Here is the progression, culminating in 35 trillion children
being gunned down in 1995, far beyond the population of the world
since its inception, as Best points out in the original
article.  In the article he describes tracking down the original
basis for the statistic.  At some point, doubling _since_ 1950
got translated into doubling every year since 1950.

Year# Children Gunned Down
1950   1
1951   2
1952   4
1953   8
1954  16
1955  32
1956  64
1957 128
1958 256
1959 512
1960   1,024
1961   2,048
1962   4,096
1963   8,192
1964  16,384
1965  32,768
1966  65,536
1967 131,072
1968 262,144
1969 524,288
1970   1,048,576
1971   2,097,152
1972   4,194,304
1973   8,388,608
1974  16,777,216
1975  33,554,432
1976  67,108,864
1977 134,217,728
1978 268,435,456
1979 536,870,912
1980   1,073,741,824
1981   2,147,483,648
1982   4,294,967,296
1983   8,589,934,592
1984  17,179,869,184
1985  34,359,738,368
1986  68,719,476,736
1987 137,438,953,472
1988 274,877,906,944
1989 549,755,813,888
1990   1,099,511,627,776
1991   2,199,023,255,552
1992   4,398,046,511,104
1993   8,796,093,022,208
1994  17,592,186,044,416
1995  35,184,372,088,832

Best wishes
Jim


James M. Clark  (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology(204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg  4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba  R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA  http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark




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Re: Artifacts in stats: (Was Student's t vs. z tests)

2001-04-25 Thread jim clark

Hi

On 25 Apr 2001, Alan McLean wrote:
 I agree - although students do need tables in (written) exams... But
 we use a computer program called Tuteman in our teaching and testing, so
 the natural way to find critical values or p-values is via the computer
 - we use Excel mainly. In general, I emphasise the use of p values - in
 many ways it is a  more natural way than using critical values to carry
 out a test. The p value is a direct measure of 'strength of evidence'.

 Paul W. Jeffries wrote:
  But this approach made me think about artifacts in statistics.  What are
  list members views on teaching students to use tables.  In the computer
  age, tables are an anachronism.  The vast majority of students will never
  use a t table.  They will just rely on the computer to print the p value.

The following article by Dawson in 1997 described how it would be
possible to have improved tables (i.e., more p values) that were
more compatible with the probability approach.

http://www.amstat.org/publications/jse/v5n2/dawson.html

Best wishes
Jim


James M. Clark  (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology(204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg  4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba  R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA  http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark




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Re: FW: Student's t vs. z tests

2001-04-24 Thread jim clark

Hi

On 24 Apr 2001, Mark W. Humphries wrote:
 I concur. As I mentioned at the start of this thread, I am self-learning
 statistics from books. I have difficulty telling what is being taught as
 necessary theoretical 'scaffolding' or 'superceded procedures', and what one
 would actually apply in a realistic case. I would love a textbook which
 walks through a realistic analysis step by step, while providing the
 'theoretical scaffolding' as insets within this flow. Its frustrating to
 read 50 pages only to find that 'one never actually does it this way'.

My gut feeling is that this would be a terribly confusing way to
_teach_ anything.  Students would be started with a (relatively)
advanced procedure and at various points have to be taken aside
for lessons on sampling distributions, probability, whatever, and
then brought back somehow to the flow of the current lesson.  
There is a logic to the way that statistics is developed in most
intro texts (although some people might not agree with that logic
in the absence of a direct empirical test of its efficacy).  It
would be an interesting study of course, and not that difficult
to set up with some hypertext-like instruction.  Students could
be led through the material in a hierarchical manner or entered
at some upper level with recursive links to foundational
material.  We might find some kind of interaction, with better
students doing Ok by either procedure (and perhaps preferring the
latter) and weaker students doing Ok by the hierarchical
procedure but not the unstructured (for want of a better word)
method.  At least, that is my prediction.

Start of Dennis's comments (I believe)

 the problem with all these details is that ... the quality of data we get
 and the methods we use to get it ... PALE^2 in comparison to what such
 methods might tell us IF everything were clean
 
 DATA ARE NOT CLEAN!
 
 but, we prefer it seems to emphasize all this minutiae .. rather than spend
 much much more time on formulating clear questions to ask and, designing
 good ways to develop measures and collect good data

I for one was not saying anything at all about how much time was
spent on various topics.  And it seems likely to me that more
effective methods of instruction (for whatever) leave more time
for other material, and not less.

 we pay NO attention to whether some measure we use provides us with
 reliable data ...
 
 the lack of random assignment in even the simplest of experimental designs
 ... seems to cause barely a whimper

Speak for yourself.  How can you know what else is done in a
class from a narrow discussion of how best to teach one
particular component?

 we pound statistical significance into the ground when, it has such LIMITED
 application

I think that reading the scientific literature would disabuse one
about the limited application of statistical significance.  My
students tell me that learning about statistical inference
greatly increases their capacity to read primary
literature.  Perhaps it is different in your discipline.

 but yet, we get in a tizzy (me too i guess) and fight tooth and nail over
 such silly things as should we start the discussion of hypothesis testing
 for a mean with z or t? WHO CARES? ... the difference is trivial at best

Perhaps the people who don't care shouldn't get involved in the
discussion.  Again, you seem to be drawing some pretty broad
inferences from a discussion of one topic on a list that is
dedicated to teaching statistics.

 in the overall process of research and gathering data ... the process of
 analysis is the LEAST important aspect of it ... let's face it ... errors
 that are made in papers/articles/research projects are rarely caused by
 faulty analysis applications ... though sure, now and then screw ups do
 happen ...

Perhaps that is because students learned those techniques well.  
Nor are statistical analysis matters independent of good research
design.  A number of aspects of design follow from an
understanding of statistical tests, such as: the importance of
sample size, minimizing noise in the study (e.g., standard
testing procedures, homogeneous samples), and having a
sufficiently powerful manipulation of the predictor variable.

 the biggest (by a light year) problem is bad data ... collected in a bad
 way ... hoping to chase answers to bad questions ... or highly overrated
 and/or unimportant questions
 
 NO analysis will salvage these problems ... and to worry and agonize over z
 or t ... and a hundred other such things is putting too much weight on the
 wrong things
 
 AND ALL IN ONE COURSE TOO! (as some advisors are hoping is all that their
 students will EVER have to take!)

Then it would seem that your argument should be with the people
in your area who have this naive expectation.  In psychology,
undergraduate students will get a number of courses on data
analysis and research methods, depending in part on whether they
are majors or honours students.  So I have the luxury of
focussing 

Re: Student's t vs. z tests

2001-04-21 Thread jim clark

Hi

On Fri, 20 Apr 2001, dennis roberts wrote:
 At 10:58 AM 4/20/01 -0500, jim clark wrote:
   What does a t-distribution mean to a student who does not
 know what a binomial distribution is and how to calculate the
 probabilities, and who does not know what a normal distribution
 is and how to obtain the probabilities?
 
 good question but, NONE of us have an answer to this ... i know of NO data 
 that exists about going through various different routes and then 
 assessing one's understanding at the end

Just a couple of comments.  (1) Not having specific evidence on a
pedagogical question does not mean that any approach is just as
justified as any other approach.  We should base our practice on
what information is available, appreciating its possible
limitations (e.g., personal experience, cognitive models of
concept learning, general principles of teaching, principles of
task analysis, logic, feedback from students, ...).  Only the
very naivest sort of crude empiricism would dictate that specific
findings are the only worthwhile factors in a science-based
practice.  (2) In general I suspect that there is much evidence
supportive of a task-analytic approach to teaching mathematics,
although I have not looked at the literature for many
years.  That is, mathematics, perhaps more than many other areas,
requires a sensitivity to the kinds of prior knowledge presumed
by the new knowledge to be acquired.

 to say that we know that IF we want students to learn about and understand 
 something about t and its applications ... one must:
 
 1. do binomial first ...
 2. then do normal
 3. then do t
 
 is mere speculation

Only if you completely devalue many years of experience teaching
a subject matter, a background in cognitive and educational
psychology, the possibility that there might be certain logical
entailments involved among the topics, and so on.  Your statement
makes it sound as though one is equally justified to promote any
of the 3! = 6 possible permutations of all 3 tasks + the 3x2! = 6
permutations of 2 tasks + the 3 possible single tasks (+ the 1
possible 0 tasks, if one wants to be comprehensive).

 without some kind of an experiment where we try various combinations and 
 orderings ... and see what happens to student's understandings, we know not 
 of what we assert (including me)

This is just too nihilistic a view of knowledge and teaching.  
There are certain constraints.  For example, one normally expects
that learning the alphabet is better done before learning words.  
Would you want an experiment before concluding that presenting
the calculus of statistics is probably not the best approach to
intro stats in non-mathematical disciplines?

 off the top of my head, i would say that one could learn alot about a t 
 distribution studying it ... are you suggesting that one could not learn 
 about calculating probabilities within a t distribution without having 
 worked and learned about calculating probabilities in a normal distribution?

 as far as i know, the way students learn about calculating probabilities is 
 NOT by any integrative process ... rather, they are shown a nice drawing of 
 the normal curve, with lines up at -3 to +3 ... with values like .02, .14, 
 .34 ... etc. within certain whole number boundaries under the curve, and 
 then are shown tables on how to find areas (ps) for various kinds of 
 problems (areas between points, below points, above points)
 
 if there is something real high level and particularly intuitive about 
 this, let me know. you make it sound like there is some magical learning 
 here ... some INductive principle being established ... and, i don't see it

Of course you left off my starting point.  For the binomial
distribution, students can readily be shown how to actually
calculate the probabilities in the sampling distribution.  They
do not have to take it purely on faith.  Then when we move to the
normal or t or F or whatever, we can say that these distributions
are produced by more sophisticated mathematical techniques that
are beyond our capabilities, but _analogous_ to what students did
for the binomial.  This is the foundation (with its own
foundation in an adequate understanding of probability and
counting principles).  The normal distribution is the bridge
between this foundation and the t-distribution (then F,
whatever).

I can't speak for other disciplines, but at least in psychology
and education, it is probability worth noting that an
understanding of the normal distribution is valuable in and of
itself, irrespective of its role in hypothesis testing.  Examples
of normal distributions would occur in testing (e.g.,
understanding different test score transformations, such as
T-scores, computed percentiles, and the like), in understanding
certain transformations (e.g., of skewed reaction time
distributions), and in perception (e.g., d-prime measures of
sensitivity).

 i don't see one whit of difference between this and ... showing some t

Re: partial correlations

2001-04-07 Thread jim clark

Hi

On 7 Apr 2001, Dianne Worth wrote:

 After several years of frustration with SAS, I am migrating
 to SPSS.  I am currently working on a project in both
 packages, to ensure accuracy of results as I teach myself
 SPSS.  I would like to obtain 1) the squared semi-partial
 correlation based on the sequence that predictors are entered
 into the model statement (SCORR1 in SAS) and 2) SCORR2, which
 is supposed to show the unique proportion of variance that
 the predictor explains in Y.

You can get part (semi-partial rs) in several ways in SPSS.  The
ZPP option on the STATISTICS sub-command will report zero, part,
and partial correlations for each predictor in the equation.  
The CHANGE and HISTORY options will show you r^2 change (= part
or semi-partial r when single predictor entered at a time).  
CHANGE reports the value at each step and History reports the r^2
changes at the end.  So the commands would be:

REGR /VARI = y b1 b2 b3 /STAT = DEFAU ZPP CHANGE HISTORY
  /DEP = y /STEPWISE (or whatever METHOD of entry you choose to use)

Best wishes
Jim


James M. Clark  (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology(204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg  4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba  R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA  http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark




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Avoiding Linear Dependencies in Artificial Data Sets

2001-03-12 Thread jim clark

Hi

I like to use small, artificially generated data sets with
integer parameters to introduce analyses.  Often, however, I find
it difficult to avoid undesirable contingencies among the scores
(e.g., linear dependencies in within-subject designs).  Is there
an algorithmic way to generate such scores and avoid such
dependencies?  Here is a small example with 4 scores for each of
5 subjects.  The following analysis reveals the undesirable
linear dependencies.  I'm assuming the dependencies arise from
the noise vectors that I used to generate the cell scores by
adding them to the main effect of the factor and the subject
effects.  Is there a systematic way to create such noise vectors
to avoid linear dependencies?

data list free / subj vl lo hi vh
begin data
1 3 3 5 52 1 3 7 9 3 6 8 8 10   4 7 8 6 7   5 3 3 9 9
end data
manova vl lo hi vh /wsf = conc(4) /print = cell
  /contr(conc) = poly

 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 Cell Means and Standard Deviations
 Variable .. VL
 Mean  Std. Dev.  N   95 percent 
Conf. Interval
 For entire sample  4.000  2.449  5   .959 
 7.041
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 Variable .. LO
 Mean  Std. Dev.  N   95 percent 
Conf. Interval
 For entire sample  5.000  2.739  5  1.600 
 8.400
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 Variable .. HI
 Mean  Std. Dev.  N   95 percent 
Conf. Interval
 For entire sample  7.000  1.581  5  5.037 
 8.963
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 Variable .. VH
 Mean  Std. Dev.  N   95 percent 
Conf. Interval
 For entire sample  8.000  2.000  5  5.517 
10.483
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Tests of Between-Subjects Effects.

 Tests of Significance for T1 using UNIQUE sums of squares
 Source of Variation  SS  DFMS F  Sig of F

 WITHIN CELLS  40.00   4 10.00
 CONSTANT 720.00   1720.00 72.00  .001

 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 Estimates for T1
 --- Individual univariate .9500 confidence intervals

 CONSTANT

  Parameter   Coeff.Std. Err.  t-Value   Sig. t   
Lower -95%CL- Upper

1  12.00  1.41421  8.48528   .00106
  8.07351 15.92649

 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * A n a l y s i s   o f   V a r i a n c e -- Design   
1 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Tests involving 'CONC' Within-Subject Effect.


 Mauchly sphericity test, W =  .0
 Chi-square approx. =  .  with 5 D. F.
 Significance =  .

 Greenhouse-Geisser Epsilon =  .40650
 Huynh-Feldt Epsilon = .49123
 Lower-bound Epsilon = .3

AVERAGED Tests of Significance that follow multivariate tests are equivalent to
univariate or split-plot or mixed-model approach to repeated measures.
Epsilons may be used to adjust d.f. for the AVERAGED results.

 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
 *   * *
 *   W A R N I N G   * The WITHIN CELLS error matrix is SINGULAR.  *
 *   * These variables are LINEARLY DEPENDENT  *
 *   * on preceding ones ..*
 *   *   T3*
 *   * Multivariate tests will be skipped. *
 *   * *
 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
07:51:26The University of Winnipeg SUN SPARCSolaris

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * A n a l y s i s   o f   V a r i a n c e -- Design   
1 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 

Re: On inappropriate hypothesis testing. Was: MIT Sexism statistical

2001-03-12 Thread jim clark

Hi

On 12 Mar 2001, Radford Neal wrote:
 Yes indeed.  And the context in this case is the question of whether
 or not the difference in performance provides an alternative
 explanation for why the men were paid more (one supposes, no actual
 salary data has been released).
 
 In this context, all that matters is that there is a difference.  As
 explained in many previous posts by myself and others, it is NOT
 appropriate in this context to do a significance test, and ignore the
 difference if you can't reject the null hypothesis of no difference in
 the populations from which these people were drawn (whatever one might
 think those populations are).

Personally, I am not interested in the question of statistical
testing to dismiss the alternative explanation being proposed;
indeed, I suspect that the original claim about gender being the
cause of salary differences would not stand up very well either
to statistical tests.  But there does seem to me to be more than
just saying ... "see there is a difference" and that statistical
procedures would have a role to play.  For example, wouldn't the
strength and consistency of the differences influence your
confidence that this was indeed the underlying factor?  The same
difference in means due to one or two outliers would surely not
mean the same thing as a uniform pattern of productivity
differences, would it?  And wouldn't you want to demonstrate that
there was a significant and ideally strong within-group
relationship between productivity and salary before claiming that
it is a reasonable alternative for the between-group differences?  
Or at least, wouldn't that strengthen the case?  I appreciate
that in some domains (e.g., intelligence testing), people are
reluctant to make inferences about between-group differences on
the basis of within-group correlations, but that is the basic
logic of ANCOVA and related methods.

Best wishes
Jim


James M. Clark  (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology(204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg  4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba  R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA  http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark




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Re: On inappropriate hypothesis testing. Was: MIT Sexism statistical

2001-03-12 Thread jim clark

Hi

On Mon, 12 Mar 2001, Irving Scheffe wrote:
 Jim:
 For example, suppose you had a department
 in which the citation data were
 
Males   Females
12220 1298
 2297 1102

When I said outlier, I had in mind hypothetical data of the
following sort (it doesn't matter to me whether it is the
salaries or the citation rates):

MalesFemales
170001000
 10001000
 10001000
 10001000

Avg  50001000

vs.
Males   Females
50001000
50001000
50001000
50001000

Avg 50001000

I would view the latter somewhat differently than the former with
respect to differences between these samples of males and
females, and with respect to the kinds of explanations I would
seek (e.g., somewhat general to males, something specific to
male 1).

 The male with 12220 is, let's imagine, a Nobel Prize
 winner. The salaries for the 4 people are 
 
Males   Females
   156,880  121,176
   112,120  114,324

Of course if the salaries were:
Males   Females
   112,120   121,176
   156,880   114,324

You probably might want not to promote the hypothesis of
productivity differences explaining the gender differences.  That
was the point of one of my later comments.

 As Radford Neal has pointed out succinctly, the argument about
 outliers is irrelevant, and I want to emphasize with this example
 that it is irrelevant on numerous levels. First of all,
 it is not necessarily clear whether, and in which of several
 senses, our Nobel Prize winner is an outlier in his group.
 Second, even if he is -- so what? Surely you would not argue
 that this means he didn't deserve his salary!

Assuming a correlation between productivity and salary (or
winning of Nobel prizes).

 In fact, careful examination of the salary data [never
 made public by the administration] together with the
 performance data might well have led to the conclusion
 that it is the male faculty who are underpaid.

I'm in perfect agreement with this, although I still think that
statistics would play a positive role in identifying the
determinants of salary.

 Although, as Dr. Neal pointed out, it is not logically
 relevant to the issue, I would like to
 explore your notion, echoed without
 justification by Rich Ulrich, that the
 huge difference in citation performance between
 MIT senior men and women might be due
 to "one or two outliers."

I don't remember making any such attribution.  I asked a question
about whether detractors of statistical testing would view
equivalently differences due to some outliers and more consistent
results, in the sense I showed above.  I'm not sure it is any
more palatable to have one's motives misconstrued by people
arguing against gender-related bias than to have them
misconstrued by people arguing for gender-related bias.

 Take a look at the data again, and tell me
 which male data you consider to be outliers
 within the male group, and why. For example, 
 are the men with 2133 and
 893 "outliers," or those with 12830 and 11313?

Not having taken any position on it, I am not too sure I feel any
compulsion to answer your question.  I guess I would turn it
around and say, would you interpret your results exactly the same
as the modified results that I have presented below?

 The data for the senior men and women:
 12 year citation counts:
MalesFemales
  --
 128302719
 113131690
 106281301
  43961051
  2133 935
   893
  ---

Average 7032  1539

Modified (Hypothetical ... for pedagogical purposes only ... no
hidden agenda results ...)

Males Females
34500 1500
 1500 1500
 1500 1500
 1500 1500
 1500 1500
 1500

 Avg 7000 1500

To me, these data are much less suggestive of general differences
in productivity between males and females, would not be an
adequate account of widespread (i.e., consistent or uniform
across individuals) differences in salaries, and so on.  Am I
correct to assume that for you the consistency of the differences
between the groups (which is what a statistical test measures) is
completely irrelevant?  Or are you implicitly engaging in
inferential-like thinking when you examine the actual
distributions?

 As for the notion of exploring the relationship between
 salary, gender, and performance -- I'd be more than happy
 to examine any data that MIT would make available. They
 will, of course, not make such data available. It is too
 private, they say.

But were the data made available to you, would you use any
statistical procedures in the examination?  Would you care
whether the differences in salary were significant?  The
differences in productivity?  The differences in any number of
potential confounding variables?  What about the significance and
strength of the relationships between predictors and
salary?  What about whether the gender difference was significant
after productivity was 

Re: Two sided test with the chi-square distribution?

2001-02-06 Thread jim clark

Hi

On Tue, 6 Feb 2001, Thom Baguley wrote:
 Donald Burrill wrote:
  Well, it _might_ be.  Depends on what hypothesis was being tested,
  doesn't it?  And so far "rjkim" hasn't deigned to tell us that.
 
 Yes, though I think the vocabulary can obscure what goes on. To me a
 "one-tailed" test should refer to the distribution to retain the meaning of
 "tail" and hence is a confusing term if used without further explanation.

The problem is that one-tailed test is taken as synonymous with
directional hypothesis (e.g., Ha: Mu1Mu2).  This causes no
confusion with distributions such as the t-test, because
directional implies one-tailed.  This correspondence does not
hold for other statistics, such as the F and Chi2.  One can get a
large F by either Mu1Mu2 or Mu1Mu2 (or by positive or negative
R, ...).  Therefore the one-tail of the distribution corresponds
(normally) to a two-tailed or non-directional test.  However,
there is absolutely nothing wrong with making the necessary
adjustment to make the test directional (i.e., equivalent to the
one-tailed t-test), and therefore referring to it (confusingly,
of course) as a one-tailed test.  To make F directional, one
simply halves p from the statistical output or looks up the
critical value of F with 2*alpha (e.g., .10).  The same would
hold for Chi2 and is presumably what happened with the paper
referred to initially (assuming knowledge of statistics).  That
is, the Chi2 under many applications would be insensitive as to
the direction by which observed values differed from expected
values, making it a non-directional/two-tailed test without some
adjustment.  But such adjustment would be appropriate if the
direction of differences was predicted, just as for the F.

Best wishes
Jim


James M. Clark  (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology(204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg  4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba  R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA  http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark




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Re: AW: eigenvalue: origin of term

2001-01-21 Thread jim clark

Hi

On Sat, 20 Jan 2001, Bob Wheeler wrote:
 I can't find a paper by anyone named Cohen with a
 title resembling what you give in CIS. Perhaps you
 can improve the citation.

Cohen, J. (1968). Multiple regression as a general data-analytic
   system. Psychological Bulletin, 70, 426-443.

Best wishes
Jim


James M. Clark  (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology(204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg  4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba  R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA  http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark




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