Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
For a few laughs, courtesy the internet: QUOTE These terms have been updated to fit today's times: CEO - chief embezzlement officer. CFO - corporate fraud officer. BULL MARKET - A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius. BEAR MARKET - A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex. VALUE INVESTING - The art of buying low and selling lower. P/E RATIO - The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing. BROKER - What my broker has made me. STANDARD & POOR - Your life in a nutshell. STOCK ANALYST - Idiot who just downgraded your stock. STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves. MARKET CORRECTION - The day after you buy stocks. CASH FLOW - The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet. INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR - Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse. MOMENTUM INVESTING - The fine art of buying high and selling low. 'BUY, BUY' - A flight attendant making market recommendations as you step off the plane. FINANCIAL PLANNER - A guy who actually remembers his wallet when he runs to the 7-11 for toilet paper and cigarettes. CALL OPTION - Something people used to do with a telephone in ancient times before e-mail. YAHOO - What you yell after selling all you owned to some poor sucker for $240 per share. WINDOWS - What you jump out of when you're the sucker that bought Yahoo for $240 per share. PROFIT - Religious guy who talks to God. BILL GATES - Where God goes for a loan. ALAN GREENSPAN - God (past tense). UNQUOTE
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Roland Francis wrote: > QUOTE > "We're way beyond fundamentals," said Chris Orndorff, head of equity > strategy at Payden & Rygel, in Los Angeles. > "This is just pure panic, that's all it is." UNQUOTE Roland, A lot of people, including some professionals, still do not understand the depth/debt of this crisis. When the Dow swings 1,000 points a day, the situation is dire, even when you have money to waste. If you have been paying attention, every-time US govt officials come out and talk to the market, the Dow plunges further. Maybe the G8 finance ministers meeting this weekend will be able to convince the largest debtor nation, the US, on the medicine it has to take. Else the the US faces economic ruin. The one good thing that will come out of all this is that we are going to get some great movies. The last depression ushered in the golden age of entertainment and some of the greatest movies. Now don't anyone run off and invest in movie companies. These movies may not make profits but they will have great drama. Lastly, this morning I read that Matell, who make toy cars, is now worth twice as much as General Motors. Mervyn3.0 __ Yahoo! Canada Toolbar: Search from anywhere on the web, and bookmark your favourite sites. Download it now at http://ca.toolbar.yahoo.com.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Date: Thu, 9 Oct 2008 15:38:19 -0700 (PDT) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Conservatives want govt regulations for all environments. Liberals DO NOT want the govt to interfere in "free markets." > Mario observes: > This is not only absurd it is exactly the opposite of what political conservatives and liberals believe in the US. > Mervyn writes: > Let me take this back, fiscal liberals do not want the govt to interfere until the market back fires on them. Then they want to govt to use tax payers money to help their failing senses and failed business. In other words, they want to keep all profits, but let taxpayers pay for the losses. > Mario responds: > More absurd comments that ignore reality and recent events. > As we have seen recently from the experiences of Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros, Washington Mutual, Countrywide Mortgage, Wachovia Bank among others, it is a rare exception for American taxpayers to underwrite a private corporation that is in financial difficulties. In almost every case in which they have done so, so far, the financial instruments that were used were paid back to the taxpayers with interest. > Mervyn wrote: > The question I am asked most often now is: Why does fortune smile on you? My answer, as?always, is: It also smiles on people who agree with me :-) > Mario asks: > Can you name one other person who agrees with you who has won a lottery? Those who agreed with you and bought gold when it hit $1,000 are sitting on huge losses right now. > Mervyn wrote: > I am really surprised that Mario came up with a report showing that the current dollar value of the 1980 price of gold is closer to $2,250.00 With gold trading today at $900.00. > Mario responds: > No report I used showed that the "current dollar value of the 1980 price of gold is closer to $2,250.00" You obviously failed to understand what was written. Here is what it actually said: > "In January 2008, 28 years after the all-time record high of price of $850 in January 1980, the nominal broke the record. In inflation adjusted US dollars, the price would have to reach about $2,200 to break the record in real terms." > Mervyn wrote: > I am reminded of the first law of investing: Buy low.? > Mario responds: > Unfortunately, you have been unable to explain how you figure out when a price is "low". None of your three serial explanations for the low price of gold made any sense. >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Roland Francis wrote: > > That's changing, now there will be severe regulations put into place. > Date: Tue, 7 Oct 2008 20:35:10 -0700 (PDT) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Regulations were in place. The current US administration removed them and asked the industry to "self-regulate." > Mario observes: > Here we go again. Another great opportunity to straighten out a false comment, out of context, and educate Goanetters about how the US system of government works. > The day-to-day oversight of the US Financial Services industry since early 2007 has been in the hands of the Democrats who control the US Congress, Congressman Barney Frank in the House and Sen. Chris Dodd in the Senate. The latter was also the largest recipient of political contributions from Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac political action committees, with Barack Obama as number two, ostensibly to soften their oversight, which succeeded. > In addition, the seeds of the problem were sown in 1977 under the Carter administration and expanded under the Clinton administration which pushed the American banking system to provide home loans to low income Americans to encourage tham to own their own homes instead of renting, often threatening the banks with legal action if they did not lower their credit standards so that more low income people could qualify for a loan. This is vote bank politics no different than what we see in India. > When the seven year business cycle slowed, as it always does, many of these people were unable to repay their home loans and the system crashed. > Here are two columns written by a respected economist, Thomas Sowell, describing the genesis of the financial crisis. He is currently a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. > http://townhall.com/columnists/ThomasSowell/2008/09/30/bailout_politics > http://townhall.com/columnists/ThomasSowell/2008/10/03/do_facts_matter >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
One analyst quoted by the BBC International webiste today, has put it very succinctly: QUOTE "We're way beyond fundamentals," said Chris Orndorff, head of equity strategy at Payden & Rygel, in Los Angeles. "This is just pure panic, that's all it is." UNQUOTE Roland.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Bosco D'Mello wrote: > Interestingly when Clinton enacted the Act in 1999 Congress was controlled > by the Republicans. > > Bush 43 is responsible (I dont recollect any name of Act being mentioned) > for removing the last barriers between investment banks and commercial banks > so that each could behave like the other that has lead to the demise of the > Top 5 Investment Banks. Bosco, There is a fundamental philosophical difference between fiscal conservatives and fiscal liberals. Conservatives want govt regulations for all environments. Liberals DO NOT want the govt to interfere in "free markets." Let me take this back, fiscal liberals do not want the govt to interfere until the market back fires on them. Then they want to govt to use tax payers money to help their failing senses and failed business. In other words, they want to keep all profits, but let taxpayers pay for the losses. The people who have to pay the price for the removal of govt regulations, are those who will never understand the situation. Looking back and trying to point the finger at who is responsible for removing existing laws is just a smoke screen. This week, the central banks from around the world decided to lower interest rates. 1) Low interest rates is what got the US into this crises in the first place. 2) Low interest rates do not encourage people to save. 3) Low interest rates debauch your currency, encourage spending and cause inflation. The question I am asked most often now is: Why does fortune smile on you? My answer, as always, is: It also smiles on people who agree with me :-) Mervyn3.0 PS. I am really surprised that Mario came up with a report showing that the current dollar value of the 1980 price of gold is closer to $2,250.00 With gold trading today at $900.00, I am reminded of the first law of investing: Buy low. __ Looking for the perfect gift? Give the gift of Flickr! http://www.flickr.com/gift/
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
-Original Message- That's changing, now there will be severe regulations put into place. Regulations were in place. The current US administration removed them and asked the industry to "self-regulate." Now the adm has come up with a "I am from the govt and I am here to help you." RESPONSE: Deregulation of financial institutions began in the 80s, possibly even earlier. This is what I picked-up recently listening to Robert Reich, Clinton's Secretary of Labour (1993-97) on the CBC. A significant contribution to banking deregulation was passed into law by President Clinton in 1999 by which time Reich was not a member of the Clinton cabinet. It was called the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999. This Act in effect repealed large portions of the Banking Act of 1933 that was enacted by President Roosevelt. Under the old act, Banks, Insurance companies and Brokerages were ineffect to be run as separate businesses and with separate onwership structures. Commercial and Investment banking were separated. Interestingly when Clinton enacted the Act in 1999 Congress was controlled by the Republicans. Bush 43 is responsible (I dont recollect any name of Act being mentioned) for removing the last barriers between investment banks and commercial banks so that each could behave like the other that has lead to the demise of the Top 5 Investment Banks. DISCLAIMER: Am no expert on financial matters, just paraphrasing what I heard when a former US Govt official visited the local radio station. But surely somebody was sleeping at the switch, probably enjoying the rides of exuberance as the bears turned into bulls on Wall Street. There is plenty of blame to go around!! - Bosco
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Mario, Today's BBC news says this was a shock. QUOTE Six central banks - including the Bank of England - have cut their interest rates by half a percentage point. The US Federal Reserve has cut rates from 2% to 1.5% and the European Central Bank (ECB) trimmed its rate from 4.25% to 3.75% UNQUOTE Comment: It may have been unexpected, but Gerry Coleman had this to say a week before: Panics are temporary and usually end because: – prices become low enough that buyers move in and start to reverse the trend – government initiatives are introduced – and we're getting that now – central banks usually take action – so I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed cut the discount rate soon. Roland. -- Roland Francis Toronto +1 (416) 453.3371
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Roland Francis wrote: > There will be recession in the U.S – it hasn't happened yet, but I'd > be surprised if the third quarter didn't have moderately negative growth. Roland, It is much easier to understand things if the proper terms are use to describe the situation. "Moderately negative growth" is not growth. The proper term is contraction. And this time there is nothing moderate about it. The western financial system is on its knees. > That's changing, now there will be severe regulations put into place. Regulations were in place. The current US administration removed them and asked the industry to "self-regulate." Now the adm has come up with a "I am from the govt and I am here to help you." > This is a great opportunity if you're a long term investor with a time > horizon of three or four years; it's an opportunity to be picking up > high-quality companies at very reasonable prices. Buying anything now is like trying to catch a falling knife. More often than not, you will get hurt. Let the knife fall on the floor. When its not falling any more, one can safely pick it off the floor. Check up the word "stagflation." The situation we are in can last for five years or more. There is no hurry to buy anything. Mervyn3.0 __ Yahoo! Canada Toolbar: Search from anywhere on the web, and bookmark your favourite sites. Download it now at http://ca.toolbar.yahoo.com.
[Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Roland Francis roland.francis at gmail.com Mon Oct 6 19:53:31 PDT 2008 > http://lists.goanet.org/pipermail/goanet-goanet.org/2008-October/081707.html > Gerry Coleman's market commentary. Coleman is one of Canada's most sucessful fund managers. > Mario adds: > Roland, > I appreciate your post shown in the link above, which restores my faith in Canadian insight and objectivity as exemplified by Gerry Coleman. No wonder he is a successful fund manager. > Coleman has provided a pithy, yet knowledgeable and balanced perspective on the American financial marketplace, in proper context, and I would strongly recommend that any Goanetter interested in what is really going on in the US keep his professional analysis in mind. >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Gerry Coleman's market commentary. Coleman is one of Canada's most sucessful fund managers. Market comments There will be recession in the U.S – it hasn't happened yet, but I'd be surprised if the third quarter didn't have moderately negative growth. The market is already discounting a U.S. recession and global slowdown – it's built into current prices. The market usually bottoms six months before a recession ends. So, if the recession ends in'09, then the market should bottom before that. There will be continued short-term volatility – prices are going to keep bouncing around. Interest rates There's been a crisis of confidence, and when that happens people buy U.S. Treasury bills. They don't care about return; they just want to own them. As a result, short-term interest rates have been pushed down to 1%-2%. Rates will probably start to rebound once a sense of normalcy returns, which will hurt government bond returns going forward. U.S. financial markets A crisis of confidence is gripping the U.S. There's lot's of finger pointing going on and most of the fingers are pointing at Wall St. Wall St. was a big part of this, but it didn't create the housing mess on its own. Brokerage firms were a big part of it, so were deposit-taking banks, insurance companies, stock brokers, real estate brokers and regulatory agencies, such as the SEC. The regulatory agencies are overseen by government, so the government is also to blame. That's changing, now there will be severe regulations put into place. I think people will feel better after the House of Representatives passes the rescue package, but it shouldn't be viewed as a panacea because there are still other things that need to be done. Crisis will end We are in the midst of a full-fledged financial crisis in confidence. Panics are temporary and usually end because: – prices become low enough that buyers move in and start to reverse the trend – government initiatives are introduced – and we're getting that now – central banks usually take action – so I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed cut the discount rate soon. Two kinds of market losses There are two ways to lose money in the stock market – permanent loss of capital and temporary loss of capital. Permanent loss of capital takes place when you invest in low-quality, speculative securities because when they go down, they never come back. When high-quality companies like well-capitalized banks, insurance companies, oil and gas companies like Suncor and EnCana, mineral companies like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, gold companies like Barrick and Goldcorp, and others like General Electric and Microsoft go down, it's a temporary loss of capital. When I see prices of those companies coming down, I'm convinced it's a temporary loss of capital and an opportunity. Opportunities There are some good opportunities that haven't been seen in a very long time. Liquidity is allowing us to take advantage of weakening prices. I've been buying selectively across all sectors because stocks have come down indiscriminately. The way you profit is to take advantage of the irrationality and invest in high-quality companies when people are selling indiscriminately. This is a great opportunity if you're a long term investor with a time horizon of three or four years; it's an opportunity to be picking up high-quality companies at very reasonable prices. Disclaimer: This commentary is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Mario Goveia wrote: > Anyone who reads the newspapers and internet websites knows what is going on > in > the US and the world, and many of them know why. For unbiased business > information read the Wall Street Journal, Investors Business Daily or > Bloomberg. Mario, 1) I fund it embarrassing that you do not have the power to fight anymore. 2) If you want to read WSJ articles, how about this one? http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB122282690823092989-lMyQjAxMDI4MjAyMzgwMjM2Wj.html Mervyn D'thru Lobo __ Be smarter than spam. See how smart SpamGuard is at giving junk email the boot with the All-new Yahoo! Mail. Click on Options in Mail and switch to New Mail today or register for free at http://mail.yahoo.ca
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Date: Wed, 1 Oct 2008 20:13:27 -0700 (PDT) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Since I have been asked to wind down on this particular topic, let me post one last item. > Mario responds: > I am glad to hear that I will not have to waste mine and everyone else's time corrrecting the relentless barrage of deliberately distortions of the US system of government, the involvement of the US President, the difference between the Federal Reserve Bank and the administration, or putting context and perspective on the series of selectively used facts. > Anyone who reads the newspapers and internet websites knows what is going on in the US and the world, and many of them know why. For unbiased business information read the Wall Street Journal, Investors Business Daily or Bloomberg. > The reality of the financial markets is that there is a buyer for every seller and vice versa. Both agree on the price. Some are gamblers. Most use all kinds of analyses, but the bottom line is they arrive at opposite expectations of the price at which the transaction takes place. Most will brag about their successes and obfuscate their failures. > The buyers think the price is going to rise and the sellers think it is going to fall. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. The long term average return of professional investors is in the 10 to 12% per annum range. There are very few Warren Buffets and T. Boone Pickens' in this world, and none of them are on Goanet. > Ask any advisor whether he or she is following their own advice in their own portfolio. If they are not, ask yourself why you are expected to do what the advisor is not doing. If they tell you they are fully invested, put your money where they have put theirs, but only if you are satisfied with their personal track record. >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Folks, Since I have been asked to wind down on this particular topic, let me post one last item. I mentioned before that the US financial crises started because of cheap credit available to un-creditworthy people in California. To remind you, cleaners in California were given $400,000 loans to buy houses. All they had to do was pay $4,000 down and they were given a 'special interest rate' mortgage. This meant they would only need to make $1,000.00 in mortgage payments every month. The catch was that after six months, the 'special interest rate' went higher. Those who took the $400,000, suddenly found out that their monthly mortgage amount was now $4,000 per month. To make matters worse, the un-creditworthy people used the $400,000 to pay for houses that were worth only $350,000. When the bank foreclosed on their property, the bank had to bear the loss. To make things much more worse, when the banks put these foreclosed houses on the market, they started depressing the housing market, sending prices in a downward spiral. This morning I read a report that sent shivers down my spine. In 2006, there was a boom in ARMS in the US. ARMS stands for Adjustable Rate Mortgages. Under these loans, a borrower could decide how much mortgage he wanted to pay each month for the first five years. Almost all chose to pay little or nothing. $312 billion worth of option ARMS will reset starting within two years. The Fed is going to cut interest rates this month. When those ARMS options come due, the Fed has no option but to keep interest rates low. This mess is going to take years of a low interest rate environment to sort out. The Bank of Japan has been paying less than one per cent interest on deposits for years. The US is going to follow suit. Be prepared for your US dollar accounts to be earning 1% interest while inflation in the US is the highest in 27 years. I wish I had better news for you folks, but I don't. Mervyn3.0 PS. 303,879 foreclosures were filed in the US in August 2008, up 27 percent from a year earlier. This is what you get for removing govt supervision of the markets. __ Be smarter than spam. See how smart SpamGuard is at giving junk email the boot with the All-new Yahoo! Mail. Click on Options in Mail and switch to New Mail today or register for free at http://mail.yahoo.ca
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Mario Goveia wrote? > > They are totally frustrated that he has beaten them in almost every > major political battle while maintaining his cool under fire, even to > this day when he is only a few weeks from the end of his remarkable > presidency. He has led the successful defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq, the > prevention of another attack by them on the US mainland since 9/11/2001, > the liberation 50 million Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq from Muslim > tyrants, and the successful attempt by mostly Muslim Kosovo to become > free and independent of the Christian fascists in Serbia, all while > standing up to the feckless western Europeans who opposed him every step > of the way. > Date: Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:27:45 -0700 (PDT) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Since the US has not declared victory in both current wars, we can safely conclude that the US dollar we fall further. This is the real cost of the remarkable presidency of George (43) Bush. > Mario responds: > I don't know if "we" can safely conclude anything since the dollar has risen against the Euro in recent days, but you certainly are free to jump to your own conclusions with your own money. > As with so many facts of current events, it looks like it has somehow escaped your attention that the US led by Bush 43 defeated the previous tyrannical Afghan and Iraqi regimes within a few weeks several years ago, and handed both those countries over to its own people. Since then they have been requested by the local governments to stabilize their democracies. Its a testament to your sources of information that you don't seem to know any of this. > Perhaps you should ask yourself why the terrorists you support are trying so desperately to derail those nascent democracies. > Your previous curious and even comical decisionmaking on the low price of gold shows that you can "safely conclude" whatever you want and do not hesitate to do so, even years after the fact:-)) > However, as your favorite US President Clinton said recently, "People have been betting against the US for 200 plus years, and they have always lost". > Time will tell. > Mervyn wrote: > Secondly, bankruptcy is to capitalism as what hell is to Christianity. > Mario responds: > No it isn't. Bankruptcy is more like going to confession than going to hell. > Mervyn wrote: > When CEO's get paid bonuses regardless of whether they make a profit or loss, you get losses. Lots of losses.?George (43) Bush idea of capitalism is to get the US taxpayer to pay for these losses. This years losses, so far, amount to $40,000 for each American. > Mario responds: > Absolutely false, once again. That is not Bush 43's idea of capitalism. It is not even any American Democrat's idea of capitalism. If you were not so abysmally ignorant about virtually every facet of the US you would know that it is a rare exception for any company in the US to be bailed out. > Mervyn wrote: > My good wishes to all holders of US dollars. > Mario responds: > Likewise, my good wishes for all those who bought gold at $1,000 on Mervyn's recommendation, and have followed his faulty "knowledge" in this thread of the US system of government, not to mention his shifting explanations of how he "bets" on the price of gold. All pretty amazing for someone who thinks that someone has asked him to be Goanet's Financial Advisor. > I am thankful that you decided to continue to embarrass yourself after saying "No mas!" in a post last week, because you are a perfect foil for educating others about the US system of government, current events and the fundamentals of capitalism:-)) > "I'll tell you my strategy against the terrorists. We win. They lose" - adapted for Bush 43 based on a quote from Ronald Reagan during the height of the Cold War. >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Mario Goveia wrote? > They are totally frustrated that he has beaten them in almost every major > political battle while maintaining his cool under fire, even to this day when > he is only a few weeks from the end of his remarkable presidency. He has > led the successful defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq, the prevention of another > attack by them on the US mainland since 9/11/2001, the liberation 50 million > Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq from Muslim tyrants, and the successful > attempt by mostly Muslim Kosovo to become free and independent of the > Christian fascists in Serbia, all while standing up to the feckless western > Europeans who opposed him every step of the way. Mario, After every war, the currencies of both the victor and the defeated fall in value. Since the US has not declared victory in both current wars, we can safely conclude that the US dollar we fall further. This is the real cost of the remarkable presidency of George (43) Bush. Secondly, bankruptcy is to capitalism as what hell is to Christianity. When CEO's get paid bonuses regardless of whether they make a profit or loss, you get losses. Lots of losses. George (43) Bush idea of capitalism is to get the US taxpayer to pay for these losses. This years losses, so far, amount to $40,000 for each American. The best words today's markets can hear? The words of Ronald Regan i.e. "I am from the govt and I am here to help you." My good wishes to all holders of US dollars. Mervyn3.0 __ Be smarter than spam. See how smart SpamGuard is at giving junk email the boot with the All-new Yahoo! Mail. Click on Options in Mail and switch to New Mail today or register for free at http://mail.yahoo.ca
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Mario Goveia wrote: > > Folks, as a general rule, I never have a problem with a recommendation > if the person is following his or her own recommendations. That's the > only true test of whether someone is serious about their > recommendations. If they are not, then they're simply bloviating and > their recommendations are meaningless. > Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2008 20:30:18 -0700 (PDT) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Folks, I can assure everyone here that Mario's house was down wind from the Toledo Zoo today as this post of his reflects the stink. For the third time Mario, take a look at the title of the post and try and contribute to a debate rather than take away from it. > Mario responds: > Anyone who has followed this thread and other Off-topic threads initiated by Mervyn would know that they need to hang on to their wallets when he assures them of anything, recently assuring them that the price of gold would hit $1,650, but who really knows when:-)) > He also assured everyone that the US is like the USSR and the Weimar Republic. This is akin to saying that countries Mervyn admires, like China, Zimbabwe, Cuba and N. Korea are all democracies because they hold elections:-)) Tsk, tsk, tsk. > My comment shown above meant that a person's financial advice is simply bogus unless he shows he is serious by following his own advice. We see that Mervyn has ducked the question entirely, referring instead to some Zoo whose stink he seems very familiar with:-)) There is no Zoo in the city where I live, but there is one in the city where Mervyn lives:-)). > Mervyn wrote: > Every time I point this out, people search the Goanet archives for my recommendations and then tell me, "we should have? listened to you much earlier on." > Mario asks: > We have no way of knowing what anyone tells Mervyn. But we do know from Goanet that some Goanetters bought gold at $1,000 per ounce on Mervyn's recommendation. I wonder if others are now saying "we should have listened to you " now that gold is at $870 per ounce:-)) > When I brought this to his attention Mervyn's response was that anyone who follows his advice on the internet needed to have their heads examined, or deserved their fate or some such cynical comment. I don't know how he reconciles that with what he is writing in this post. If you ask me, he often does not remember what he has written previously. > Mervyn's claim to fame is that he bought a boatload of gold at its low point of $280 per ounce. When Roland asked how he figured out that $280 per ounce would be the low point, we got three separate answers in serial order, which can all be found in the Goanet archives, which I am paraphrasing below: > a) Easy, Mervyn said. Anyone could do it by looking at historical 15 and 20 year price charts. This was said in 2008. The problem became how looking at price charts in 2008 would lead to a decision to buy gold at $280 per ounce between 1996 to 2001, before which the price had declined steadily for several years. He was asked to try again. > b) Easy, Mervyn said, unfazed that his earlier explanation made no sense. His second explanation was that he bought gold when he heard that the central bankers, who are all idiots according to Mervyn, were selling gold. Somehow that signaled to him that he should be buying gold. The problem became that if central bankers started selling gold when it was $280 per ounce, it would have declined further. In fact the price of gold held steady from 1996 to 2001 at around $280 per ounce and then increased steadily as the US devalued its currency. This was brought to his notice and he was asked to try once more. > c) Easy, Mervyn said, still unfazed by his previous two explanations that made no sense. His third explanation was that he knew all this because he worked harder than anyone else. Ask anyone in Kenya, he said, where he was famous for catching more lobsters than anyone else by working hard. > My paraphrased response to all this was "If you are making lots of money by buying gold, good for you. I don't care if you used all these methods or not, or threw darts at a dartboard, as long as you are following your own advice while recommending it to others in gratuitous Off-topic posts now being blamed on Bosco. If you are, I have no problem; if not, your self-proclaimed perspicacity is little more than hot air." > Mervyn wrote: > The one thing my friends and the strangers have in common is that, with experience, they now know when they see something worth reading. > Mario responds: > My personal emails confirm that many on Goanet are chuckling at Mervyn's attempts at being Goanet's financial adviser. > With all the different things he has written and his distorted and selective comments about the US economy and how the US is organized, how is anyone to know which version to believe or even what to believe? I have had to correct Mervyn's understanding of t
[Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Date: Sun, 28 Sep 2008 16:53:46 +0530 (IST) From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > In view of the discussions taking place regarding George Bush's (43) economic policies, here in a lighter vein are some of his most memorable quotes. > Mario responds: > At the risk of giving your amusing post any more credibility than it deserves, I hope you know that most if not all of what you have listed are jokes concocted by Bush 43's political adversaries, building on his real Malapropisms but mostly snide attacks on his credibility in their attempt to bury his achievements under a mountain of slander and calumny. > They are totally frustrated that he has beaten them in almost every major political battle while maintaining his cool under fire, even to this day when he is only a few weeks from the end of his remarkable presidency. He has led the successful defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq, the prevention of another attack by them on the US mainland since 9/11/2001, the liberation 50 million Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq from Muslim tyrants, and the successful attempt by mostly Muslim Kosovo to become free and independent of the Christian fascists in Serbia, all while standing up to the feckless western Europeans who opposed him every step of the way. > Here is how I see George W. Bush's true legacy, based on recognizeable facts not falsehoods: > http://www.israpundit.com/2008/?p=2749#more-2749 >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2008 15:06:14 -0400 From: "Venantius Pinto" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > I am a bit surprised that my observation elicited the observation, "shallow and grossly misleading and totally out of context." Unless you are saying that rich people have to be rewarded through a variety of techniques that should never be addressed as "socialism for the rich," but perhaps "just rewards" for their initiatives in generating wealth, and in offering people like me a job. > Mario explains: > Why would you be surprised? I explained exactly why I described your comments, and Mervyn's, as shallow and grossly misleading. In short, there is no such thing as socialism for the rich in US policy in the context of your response to Mervyn's comment which you were referring to. To begin with, most corporations that are mismanaged are not bailed out - they are typically acquired at huge losses to their stockholders. Even when they are, their owners pay a heavy price. Finally, US tax policy is such that low income Americans pay little or no income taxes. > Venantius wrote: > You also quote some valuable statistics, all very true indeed. Yes it well may be 97% or even more, but what would that 97% entail if the upper 50% were paid what they really owed. I know I do not control that but can include this as a relevant point. That mite in the form of income taxes from the upper 50% would be an astronomical 97% then. > Mario responds: > No, it is 97 %, not more. I have no idea what you mean by, "but what would that 97% entail if the upper 50% were paid what they really owed. I know I do not control that but can include this as a relevant point. That mite in the form of income taxes from the upper 50% would be an astronomical 97% then." > Everyone in a capitalist society is paid what they are deemed to be worth by those who own the businesses or their representatives in management who are responsible and accountable to the owners. When the top 1% pay 40% of all income taxes, and the bottom 50% pay 3%, then how can you call this a system of "socialism for the rich." > Secondly, as I mentioned, those who are in the top 1% are not the same in 2006 as the list in 2001. So, the composition of who exactly are "the rich" changes constantly in the US - it is not always the same people. One cannot make the case that "the rich are getting richer" because many of them are actually getting poorer relative to some years ago and being replaced by others who were less rich some years ago. > Venantius wrote: > A bailout is also maintaining business as usual. But what do paintbrushes like me know? > Mario responds: > I guess it depends on the paintbrush. However, the fact is that a bailout is not even close to being business as usual. In most cases those deemed responsible for the corporate debacle pay a heavy personal price, and lose their jobs and are replaced by others. We, as taxpayers, pay a heavy price if the objectives of the bailout are not met. > Perhaps you have missed the news that Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, Lehman Bros and AIG are all under investigation by the FBI. That is not business as usual. Bear Sterns and Lehman Bros. and Washington Mutual will all cease to exist as viable entities. That is neither "socialism for the rich" nor business as usual. > Venantius wrote: > But thinking again, its better to just listen in on your comments, rather than even briefly commenting as I do with some other topics. > Mario responds: > Surely you do not expect me to agree with a proposition that does not fit the facts? > If, on the other hand, you had criticized the faulty lending policies that had been foisted on the banking system by Democrats since the Carter administration, all interested in social engineering at someone else's expense, or criticized corporate top executive salaries that are not tied to the performance of the company, or golden parachutes which I abhor when they apply to failed executives, or criticized the top executives at Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac who were forced to resign for "inappropriate accounting practices" then showed up as advisors to Barack Obama, who received more contributions per year from this organization's employees and PACs than anyone else in Congress, or shown some appreciation for who produces most of the jobs in America and pays most of the taxes, I would have agreed with you. > http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=75586 > Venantius wrote: > A while ago a person who I esteem made a point to me that I should concentrate more on my personal work, rather than engage on Goanet ? > Mario responds: > I would agree with the first part, but the rest of the advice seems shortsighted to me, because surely you can do both. I would discourage you from withdrawing from the fray. Instead, read up on these economic and financial issues from a number of sources, so that you are more familiar with how these things work. >
[Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
In view of the discussions taking place regarding George Bush's (43) economic policies, here in a lighter vein are some of his most memorable quotes. "The vast majority of our imports come from outside the country." "If we don't succeed, we run the risk of failure." "One word sums up probably the responsibility of any Governor, and that one word is 'to be prepared'." "I have made good judgments in the past. I have made good judgments in the future." "The future will be better tomorrow." "We're going to have the best educated American people in the world." "I stand by all the misstatements that I've made." "We have a firm commitment to NATO, we are a part of NATO. We have a firm commitment to Europe. We are a part of Europe." "Public speaking is very easy." "A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls." "We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur." "For NASA, space is still a high priority." "Quite frankly, teachers are the only profession that teach our children." "It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it." "It's time for the human race to enter the solar system." Enjoy and :-), Marshall -- Will the all new Indica Vista zip ahead of the Suzuki Swift? Read the expert review on Zigwheels.com http://zigwheels.com/b2cam/reviewsDetails.action?name=Ro11_20080829&path=/INDT/Reviews/Ro11_20080829&page=1&pagecount=9
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Roland Francis wrote: > I shall soon write a synopsis of a US and Global economic outlook > based not on one but on two of North America's leading economic and > market analysts. Their credentials are impeccable. Each of them have > 40 years of market experience and they are both alumni of different > Ivy League business schools besides being CAs, CFAs and MBAs. > Sufficiently credible wouldn't you say? Francis, I work with these guys. Some are brilliant Some are burn outs. Some have theory's that cause financial institutions to fail. > Currency basically has two fuctions - a store of value and a medium of > exchange. In today's world nobody (except of course the hapless person > who strores money in a mattress) uses any currency in the world as a > store of value. Francis, just last week, people where lining outside Washington Mutual bank branches to get their money back. The bulk of the worlds savings are in currency notes. Next is precious metals and jewelry. > Monetary policy means that the US will print unlimited money to combat > the vaporization of assets that has taken place. > > That in itself is not a problem. It will not cause inflation because > no money is being put in disposable channels. It is merely replacing > money that has "disappeared" due to bad investments. The money that is being printed, is for bank depositors who want their money back. When there is a run on a bank, people do not want a cheque from the bank. They want cold hard cash. When people cannot trust the bank with their cash, it usually gets put into circulation. This is another factor that leads to inflation. > Mervyn you are unduly concerned about the US dollar. Not by a long > measure is it going to be replaced or even significanlt depreciated. > The US GDP is a father big enough to take care of that baby. Mario has already provided us the terrible Euro/US peso rates. Canadians see it this way. When George Bush became President, one US dollar would buy you CAD $1.50. This year, one US Peso would only buy you CAD 95 cents. If this is not a significant depreciation to you, you don't have anything to worry about. Lastly, last month I finally got my act together, borrowed a little money from Citibank and started my own hedge fund. For those of you who need more info, here is the link. http://www.flickr.com/photos/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/2816396972/in/set-72157607049161411/ Mervyn3.0 __ Ask a question on any topic and get answers from real people. Go to Yahoo! Answers and share what you know at http://ca.answers.yahoo.com
[Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Mervyn, I shall soon write a synopsis of a US and Global economic outlook based not on one but on two of North America's leading economic and market analysts. Their credentials are impeccable. Each of them have 40 years of market experience and they are both alumni of different Ivy League business schools besides being CAs, CFAs and MBAs. Sufficiently credible wouldn't you say? For now, let me specifically address your para below based on their views. You wrote: What is worth reading now is that the US has been debauching its economy for the past eight years as: 1) A currency is only valuable if it is in limited supply. 2) Lowering interest rates effectively devalues your currency. 3) No country, ever, has built a strong economy on a weak currency. 4) Printing more bank notes leads to inflation. 5) And sometimes, STAGFLATION. If you think the above makes sense, look for a instrument other than the US dollar to store your wealth. My Comments: Currency basically has two fuctions - a store of value and a medium of exchange. In today's world nobody (except of course the hapless person who strores money in a mattress) uses any currency in the world as a store of value. The strong message is that today US assets are on a fire sale and it will not be long before the world's sovereign investment funds step in and buy out big US companies that badly need an infusion of funds not because they are bankrupt but because there is a liquidity crunch that will hamper their operations. To do this the medium of exchange will be US currency. The worst ever since the Great Depression current credit crisis will be tackled on three fronts. Monetary policy Fiscal policy and Economic policy Monetary policy means that the US will print unlimited money to combat the vaporization of assets that has taken place. That in itself is not a problem. It will not cause inflation because no money is being put in disposable channels. It is merely replacing money that has "disappeared" due to bad investments. I will talk about the fiscal measures that will be put in place as well as the recovering economic outlook expected before end 2009. Right now the world is in a recession, economy-wise. Mervyn you are unduly concerned about the US dollar. Not by a long measure is it going to be replaced or even significanlt depreciated. The US GDP is a father big enough to take care of that baby. Regards, Roland.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off topic
Mario Goveia wrote? > Folks, as a general rule, I never have a problem with a recommendation if the > person > is following his or her own recommendations. That's the only true test of > whether > someone is serious about their recommendations. If they are not, then > they're simply > bloviating and their recommendations are meaningless. Folks, I can assure everyone here that Mario's house was down wind from the Toledo Zoo today as this post of his reflects the stink. For the third time Mario, take a look at the title of the post and try and contribute to a debate rather than take away from it. I have been suggesting on Goanet for the past FOUR years to buy gold. Three years ago, Bosco asked if I would run a "Goanet Finance Section." Despite severe restrictions from my employer, I said ok. Somehow, that project never got past the planing stage. Every time I point this out, people search the Goanet archives for my recommendations and then tell me, "we should have listened to you much earlier on." I have been hearing the quoted words regularly for the past twelve years. First it was from my friends who were at the time at the same financial level as me. Later the quoted words came from people I had not met before. The one thing my friends and the strangers have in common is that, with experience, they now know when they see something worth reading. What is worth reading now is that the US has been debauching its economy for the past eight years as: 1) A currency is only valuable if it is in limited supply. 2) Lowering interest rates effectively devalues your currency. 3) No country, ever, has built a strong economy on a weak currency. 4) Printing more bank notes leads to inflation. 5) And sometimes, STAGFLATION. If you think the above makes sense, look for a instrument other than the US dollar to store your wealth. One hint: On Thursday, Sept 25th, the US Mint was forced to suspend the sale of its American Buffalo 24-karat, one ounce gold coins. The reason? It had depleted its inventory. On another point, let me assure those of you who still think that it is easy to make a quick buck on the stock markets that you all are horribly wrong. You will (inevitably) get burnt. It takes many years of investing to be able to spot good values. Having said that, there are individuals here on Goanet who send me pointers that make real sense. A single such tip, can net me in a few weeks the same amount a worker saves in a year. > However, I must say that finally, after several tries, Mervyn has listed some > recognizeable, > albeit selective, facts, as well as some unrecognizeable ones, and, as usual, > without much > context or perspective. Thankfully, he has given up the absurd comparisons > with the USSR > and the Weimar Republic, though he is still peddling his comical assertion > that Bill Clinton > had successfully and singlehandedly "managed" the economy during his watch. . The USSR and the Wiemar Republic both thought they could solve their problems by printing money. Both countries are no longer around. Let me take that back. The countries are still around but the only people who remember the republics are those who still have their bank notes. One last note, I am about a third of the way thru fellow Goanetter, Ben Antao's novel, "Living on the Market." My goodness! Ben Antao has captured all the emotions of every novice that has money on the stock markets. He very accurately describes every anguish, every euphoria and indeed, every depression that a person goes thru when he has money riding on a stock. The novel reminds me of a time twelve years ago. I would recommend the novel to any one to read BEFORE they get involved in stocks. Once again Mario, take a look at the heading before answering this post. Mervyn3.0 PS. The Kenyans here will tell you that the Luo's have very strong magic. B. Hussien Obama is smart enough to find the medicine that the US needs. The problem is, if he is given a chance, it will still take another six months after he is elected for the medication to take effect. In the mean time, expect (Mc)Pain. __ Looking for the perfect gift? Give the gift of Flickr! http://www.flickr.com/gift/
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
> > Mario, > I am a bit surprised that my observation elicited the observation, "shallow > and grossly misleading and totally out of context." Unless you are saying > that rich people have to be rewarded through a variety of techniques that > should never be addressed as "socialism for the rich," but perhaps "just > rewards" for their initiatives in generating wealth, and in offering people > like me a job. You also quote some valuable statistics, all very true > indeed. Yes it well may be 97% or even more, but what would that 97% entail > if the upper 50% paid what they really owed. I know I do not control that > but can include this as a relevant point. That mite in the form of income > taxes from the upper 50% would be an astronomical 97% then. > > A bailout is also maintaining business as usual. But what do paintbrushes > like me know? > > Anyway Mario, You have finally made your self amply clear to me. Someday > you just may see things differently. I am always very hopeful, since you are > a sharp individual. But thinking again, its better to just listen in on your > comments, rather than even briefly commenting as I do with some other > topics. No point in me interjecting in an area you have probably thrived in, > and see very differently. > > Perhaps this too is out of context, but I will say it. A while ago a person > who I esteem made a point to me that I should concentrate more on my > personal work, rather than engage on Goanet — which is any case I do quite > sparingly and that too on issues which are far from finance and economics. > Its time to take his advice. Considering what I just said abouve, this is my > last post on this topic. > > Keep thriving. > > Venantius J Pinto > > > >> Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:08:22 -0700 (PDT) >> From: Mario Goveia <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >> >> >> Mervyn Lobo wrote: >> > >> The current US capitalism model is: "Privatize the profits, socialize the >> losses." >> > >> Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:25:05 -0400 >> From: "Venantius Pinto" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >> > >> In the above sense, the US system has truly and unabashedly been about >> socialism for the rich and wealthy class. A model that many others countries >> have learnt to follow. >> > >> Mario responds: >> > >> While Mervyn's model is cute and Venantius sounds plausible on the >> surface, both these observations are shallow and grossly misleading and >> totally out of context and perspective. >> > >> To begin with, I would like to know when was the last time Venantius was >> offered a job by a poor person? >> > >> Most failing corporations in the US are not bailed out by the government.? >> They either go out of business or are acquired by other companies at a >> considerable loss to their owners.? A bailout is the exception, not the >> rule. >> > >> Regarding socialism for the rich, the bottom 50% of US taxpayers paid only >> 3% of total income?taxes in 2006.? The upper 50%?paid 97% of total income >> taxes. >> >> >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Mario, I am a bit surprised that my observation elicited the observation, "shallow and grossly misleading and totally out of context." Unless you are saying that rich people have to be rewarded through a variety of techniques that should never be addressed as "socialism for the rich," but perhaps "just rewards" for their initiatives in generating wealth, and in offering people like me a job. You also quote some valuable statistics, all very true indeed. Yes it well may be 97% or even more, but what would that 97% entail if the upper 50% were paid what they really owed. I know I do not control that but can include this as a relevant point. That mite in the form of income taxes from the upper 50% would be an astronomical 97% then. A bailout is also maintaining business as usual. But what do paintbrushes like me know? Anyway Mario, You have finally made your self amply clear to me. Someday you just may see things differently. I am always very hopeful, since you are a sharp individual. But thinking again, its better to just listen in on your comments, rather than even briefly commenting as I do with some other topics. No point in me interjecting in an area you have probably thrived in, and see very differently. Perhaps this too is out of context, but I will say it. A while ago a person who I esteem made a point to me that I should concentrate more on my personal work, rather than engage on Goanet — which is any case I do quite sparingly and that too on issues which are far from finance and economics. Its time to take his advice. Considering what I just said abouve, this is my last post on this topic. Keep thriving. Venantius J Pinto > Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:08:22 -0700 (PDT) > From: Mario Goveia <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > Mervyn Lobo wrote: > > > The current US capitalism model is: "Privatize the profits, socialize the > losses." > > > Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:25:05 -0400 > From: "Venantius Pinto" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > In the above sense, the US system has truly and unabashedly been about > socialism for the rich and wealthy class. A model that many others countries > have learnt to follow. > > > Mario responds: > > > While Mervyn's model is cute and Venantius sounds plausible on the surface, > both these observations are shallow and grossly misleading and totally out > of context and perspective. > > > To begin with, I would like to know when was the last time Venantius was > offered a job by a poor person? > > > Most failing corporations in the US are not bailed out by the government.? > They either go out of business or are acquired by other companies at a > considerable loss to their owners.? A bailout is the exception, not the > rule. > > > Regarding socialism for the rich, the bottom 50% of US taxpayers paid only > 3% of total income?taxes in 2006.? The upper 50%?paid 97% of total income > taxes. > >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Date: Thu, 25 Sep 2008 18:55:57 -0700 (PDT) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > These? decisions are made on the following facts: 1) Bill Clinton left the US with a budget surplus of 560 BILLION dollars. The?US treasury is now broke. 2) When?Clinton entered office, the Dow was at 3,300 points. When he left, it was at 11,000 points. 3) We have had eight years of debauching of the value of the US dollar. 4) Increase in the supply of money?ALWAYS results in inflation. 5)?Both US presidential candidates?promise more of the McPain.? > Mario responds: > Folks, as a general rule, I never have a problem with a recommendation if the person is following his or her own recommendations. That's the only true test of whether someone is serious about their recommendations. If they are not, then they're simply bloviating and their recommendations are meaningless. > In a previous life I was responsible for a $100 million corporate pension fund. The only managers we hired to manage our funds were those who could show us that they had become millionaires from investing their own money. These are hard to find but they're out there. The theory was, "If you haven't made yourself rich from your investing skills, why should I believe you will make a lot of money for us?" This cuts through all the fancy presentations and tap dancing that pension fund managers can put together. > Mervyn has previously told us that anyone taking a recommendation by him on Goanet deserves their fate:-)) So he has already warned everyone:-)) > However, I must say that finally, after several tries, Mervyn has listed some recognizeable, albeit selective, facts, as well as some unrecognizeable ones, and, as usual, without much context or perspective. Thankfully, he has given up the absurd comparisons with the USSR and the Weimar Republic, though he is still peddling his comical assertion that Bill Clinton had successfully and singlehandedly "managed" the economy during his watch. In the US economic system there is very little the President can do on his own. He doesn't even have day to day control of the money supply which is the responsibility of the independent Federal Reserve Bank. > To say the US Treasury is "now broke" seems to show an ignorance of the fact that the US Treasury has been in a debt position for decades, underwritten by the size of its considerable assets and GDP. The reason the US dollar has been the lead currency for decades is because the US has always had a strong and growing economy and has always been considered a safe place to invest for investors from all over the world. The US GDP is at all time highs, and even the larger projected deficits are at normal levels when related to the US GDP at around 3%. As any rational observer would know, it has hardly been business as usual for the US since 9/11. > When Clinton left office the US economy and the Dow were both declining. Subsequently the Dow recovered and reached a high above 14,000, then declined due to the currrent financial crisis caused by inappropriate real estate lending practices by the banking industry, encouraged by some left wing politicians who wanted low income Americans to be able to own their own homes. The crisis is being addressed and will be corrected. > The increase in the money supply does not always lead to inflation if it is offset by productivity increases. The US inflation rate if averaged over several months is far below that of many industrial economies. > The two US presidential candidates have sharply opposing views of how to run the US economy. Barack Obama is a virtual socialist, where John McCain is a virtual capitalist. >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Devise an enduring parachute, Guruji AT, happily with none funds to save... > Date: Thu, 25 Sep 2008 18:55:57 -0700> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: > goanet@lists.goanet.org> Subject: Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets > - Off Topic> > Folks,> Let me stick to the (off) topic here.> > > If you > have five years or more before you need to access the money you have> in the > stock market, the best thing for you to do right now is probably nothing.> > > > If you have less than five years, see the person who advised you to buy the > stocks > you have. S/he will be best placed to give you advice, depending on > what your current > situation is and what info s/he has about you on file.> > > > Personally, I think the stock markets are heading for a crash since the US > financial > system has collapsed. I have raised a lot of (non-US) cash and > will only start buying > mutual funds after the crash.> > > These decisions > are made on the following facts:> 1) Bill Clinton left the US with a budget > surplus of 560 BILLION dollars. The US treasury is now broke.> 2) When > Clinton entered office, the Dow was at 3,300 points. When he left, it was at > 11,000 points.> 3) We have had eight years of debauching of the value of the > US dollar.> 4) Increase in the supply of money ALWAYS results in inflation.> > 5) Both US presidential candidates promise more of the McPain. > > > > Mervyn3.0> The current US capitalism model is: "Privatize the profits, > socialize the losses."> _ News, entertainment and everything you care about at Live.com. Get it now! http://www.live.com/getstarted.aspx
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Mervyn Lobo wrote: > The current US capitalism model is: "Privatize the profits, socialize the losses." > Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:25:05 -0400 From: "Venantius Pinto" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > In the above sense, the US system has truly and unabashedly been about socialism for the rich and wealthy class. A model that many others countries have learnt to follow. > Mario responds: > While Mervyn's model is cute and Venantius sounds plausible on the surface, both these observations are shallow and grossly misleading and totally out of context and perspective. > To begin with, I would like to know when was the last time Venantius was offered a job by a poor person? > Most failing corporations in the US are not bailed out by the government. They either go out of business or are acquired by other companies at a considerable loss to their owners. A bailout is the exception, not the rule. > Regarding socialism for the rich, the bottom 50% of US taxpayers paid only 3% of total income taxes in 2006. The upper 50% paid 97% of total income taxes. > The only time that a corporation has been bailed out by the government, it has been under highly unusual circumstances where the harmful ripple effect would cause considerable harm to the rest of the economy. For example, Bear Sterns and Lehman Bros. were not bailed out and were or are being acquired by others. The shareholders and executives who mismanaged the company rarely benefit unless they had gotten out before the problems surfaced. > In cases where fraud has occurred the top executives have been prosecuted and sentenced to long jail terms and made to pay heavy fines. > In most cases the bailouts are through loan guarantees as opposed to outright infusions of government money. While this still puts taxpayers at risk, in most cases the corporations survived and, as in the case of Chrysler, repaid their debt to the Treasury with interest. > When critics comment about the rish getting risher in the US, that's not quite true either, because the composition of who is "rich" is constantly changing in America. Recently it was disclosed that the top 1% of US tax payers made 22% of total income and paid 40% of total income taxes in 2006. However, what was interesting was many of the individuals in that top 1% in 2006 were not in the top 1% five years ago. In the US, it is quite normal for people to make money, then not do as well later on and be replaced by someone else in the top 1%. > One can literally go from rags to riches and back to rags in one lifetime, which rarely happens anywhere else. >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic The?current US?capitalism model is: "Privatize the profits, socialize the losses." In the above sense, the US system has truly and unabashedly been about socialism for the rich and wealthy class. A model that many others countries have learnt to follow. venantius j pinto
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Folks, Let me stick to the (off) topic here. If you have five years or more before you need to access the money you have in the stock market, the best thing for you to do right now is probably nothing. If you have less than five years, see the person who advised you to buy the stocks you have. S/he will be best placed to give you advice, depending on what your current situation is and what info s/he has about you on file. Personally, I think the stock markets are heading for a crash since the US financial system has collapsed. I have raised a lot of (non-US) cash and will only start buying mutual funds after the crash. These decisions are made on the following facts: 1) Bill Clinton left the US with a budget surplus of 560 BILLION dollars. The US treasury is now broke. 2) When Clinton entered office, the Dow was at 3,300 points. When he left, it was at 11,000 points. 3) We have had eight years of debauching of the value of the US dollar. 4) Increase in the supply of money ALWAYS results in inflation. 5) Both US presidential candidates promise more of the McPain. Mervyn3.0 The current US capitalism model is: "Privatize the profits, socialize the losses." __ Yahoo! Canada Toolbar: Search from anywhere on the web, and bookmark your favourite sites. Download it now at http://ca.toolbar.yahoo.com.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Date: Wed, 24 Sep 2008 08:32:09 -0700 (PDT) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > George Bush (43) has been on the mother of all spending sprees. > Mario responds: > Sorry, folks, but Mervyn is still not getting it. George Bush 43 has no power to spend anything without the approval of the US Congress, which has been controlled by his political adversaries since the 2006 elections. > Mervyn wrote: > Bill Clinton left a budget surplus. > Mario responds: > Again, Bill Clinton did not leave anything except some curious stains on the White House walls and furniture:-)) > In 1993, after Clinton was elected, the very first budget he proposed for the consideration of Congress that showed $200 billion DEFICITS throughout the five year budget projection period, even with the largest tax rate increases in history at the time. The Congress which was controlled by his party at the time accepted his budget. This is my evidence that they had no clue as to how to create budget surpluses. > The subsequent and unforeseeable technological and communications revolutions, which the administration had nothing to do with, caused a sharp growth in the economy, and the Republicans taking control of both houses of Congress in 2004 succeeded in slowing the growth in spending, and massive bipartisan cuts in defense spending because the Cold War had ended, is what created the surpluses in the late 90's. By the end of Clinton's term, this had all dissipated and the economy had begun to decline in late 2000 and Bush 43 inherited an economic slowdown, and we were then hit with 9/11 eight months after Bush took office and was still organizing his administration. > Mervyn wrote: > In my lifetime, the British Empire has collapsed, along with its currency. The USSR suffered the same fate. The US currency is already on its way down.. > Mario responds: > The US currency has stabilized since earlier this year, and any comparisons with the British Empire and the USSR are absurd, because the largely US free enterprise system is far larger, diverse, stronger and resilient than those other regimes. > Mervyn wrote: > The secret, as always, is "buy low, sell high." My bet is that gold is going a lot higher. > Mario responds: > Wow! Why didn't I think of that? But wait. Isn't someone then selling low and buying high? Oh, I forgot. They are all morons. > The problem seems to me how to CONSISTENTLY tell in advance, without having to "bet". Isn't "betting" what they do at casinos and racetracks? > Most professionals achieve a growth rate in their investments of around 10% per annum over the long run. There are some who do better and some who do worse. > Mervyn wrote: > When George Bush (43) became President, the Dow was at 11,000 points. Eight years into his failed presidency, the Dow is at 11,000 points and in a crises mode. > Mario responds: > I'm not sure how Mervyn thinks that such distorted and selective information to suit a pre-conceived agenda will pass muster with all the facts we have at our disposal these days. But, as I've said before, he provides so much scope for real facts to be disclosed with proper context and perspective. We need to thank him:-)) > The following chart shows the history of the Dow. During the Clinton administration the Dow averaged much lower than the Dow during the Bush 43 administration. The Dow rose sharply during the Clinton administration then peaked at 11,723 and declined towards the end as the country slipped into an economic slowdown, then was hit by the economic shock from the 9/11 attack. It then recovered from the policies of Bush 43 and the Republican Congress and hit its all time high of over 14,164 in 2007. The last time I checked that was still during the Bush 43 presidency > The Dow has declined recently because of the financial crisis caused by inappropriate lending practices by major banks and inadequate oversight by the Congressional Committees responsible for overseeing the Banking sector, mainly because the Democrats who Chaired these since 2006 were pushing for lower lending standards to make home buying possible by lower income Americans whose previous alternative was to rent. > http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/dow-long.html >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Mervyn Lobo wrote: > > To put this in the simplest terms, Bush reduced taxes and borrowed money for > a spending spree. > It is just like a family man who insists in a cut in salary and then > borrows/buys on credit. > Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2008 23:06:38 -0400 From: "Bosco D'Mello" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > With the annual theatrics of world leaders ongoing in NY, Bill Clinton is all over the tube with his Clinton Global Initiative. I saw an interview with him last night. He was asked 3 times who was to blame for this $4 trillion fiasco. He did not even come close to blaming Bush. > Mario responds: > The reason is simple. President Clinton understands the US system. Mervyn still does not, even with all I have tried to teach him on Goanet:-)) > For example, his comment above of Bush reducing taxes and borrowing money, when the fact is that Bush's tax policies, which were accepted by Congress, caused taxes to skyrocket. The problem was not taxes but the failure of the President and Congress to control spending, which led to the independant Federal Reserve Bank increasing the money supply to keep interest rates low - i.e. "printing money" - and so on. > Secondly, the equally absurd reference to a family man. The largest economy in the world has a lot more credit than any family man. If he had tried to use someone like Donald Trump as an example, he would have been closer to a sensible analogy, but then he would have been unable to make the point he was trying to make. > Bosco wrote: > I think Bush (43) has had to endure more than a fair bit of turmoil in his 8 years at the wheel thanks to non-performing predecessors including Bush (41). Hello Enron!! Hello Andersen!! > Mario responds: > Bush 43's accomplishments have been distorted beyond all recognition by his political adversaries suffering from Bush Derangement Syndrome. However, I do fault him for his failure to use his presidential veto to stem the unconscionable profligate federal spending that took place under his watch. I tried to correct the record with my blog essay: > http://www.israpundit.com/2008/?p=2749#more-2749 > Bosco wrote: > Never mind all this blood-letting!! Tell us how we can make a killing without having to buy a house in Arizona or Texas or the Carolinas for a song. > Mario responds: > You must have observed what happened to those who bought gold at $1,000 based on what they thought was a recommendation on this very forum. Actually the only reasonably safe "killing" you in Canada can make right now is to buy real estate in the US for a song, use it for vacations, rent it out when you are not using it, and remember what Bill Clinton just said: > "For 200 years people have been betting against the US and have lost" - Bill Clinton, NY, Sep 22/08 > Finally, regardless of who wins the US Presidency this year, it will take the Palin & Jindal ticket in 2012 to really fix the US financial problems for the longer term, and you are probably young enough to reap the benefits of that. > Bosco wrote: > PS. Wot!! Obama donors were Fannie & Freddie and he blocked legislation that would set them straight. Talk about skeletons in a young closet, eh?? > Mario responds: > You have no idea what this guy is hiding in his closet, but it's beginning to trickle out and this series by the Editors of Investors Business Daily will give you a clue: > http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=305851942725035 > http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=306457496204115 > http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=306977141583041 > http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=307062146193647 >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2008 17:03:36 -0700 (PDT) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > The?answer to the question of this post is quite obvious. Every time the US has an unpopular president, Americans start buying gold.? > Mario responds: > If you say so. But don't you have to have a seller for every buyer? I wonder which country those come from? > The real question is why you continue to distort the US system of government and the role of the US President, which takes such a lot of bandwidth to correct. > Mervyn writes: > Er, the US is so broke that it is printing money like the "Wiemar Republic" There is no limit to how much money the US has to print. > Mario responds: > Your reponse above was to my comment, "You also don't seem to know that Bush's tax policy is not one of "lower taxes" but of lower "income tax rates" which resulted in a tremendous INCREASE in income?taxes collected by the US Treasury." which corrected yet another false statement by you about Bush 43's policies. > Bush 43's tax policies, which Congress accepted, caused income tax collections to skyrocket as the econmy grew steadily for seven straight years and still hasn't slipped into a recession. The size of the US economy is what has enabled it to survive its recent financial problems mostly caused by ridiculous lending practices by major banks, for which they are now paying a heavy price. > Regarding printing money, I'm afraid you are right, and this has contributed to the US dollar devaluation. However, any such narrow-minded comparisons with the Weimar Republic, and your previous equally narrow-minded comparisons with the communist USSR are patently absurd, since the US asset base and GDP are strong enough that the US can manage and correct its financial problems unlike those other systems. > You still seem unaware that the world economy, including Canada's, are substantially dependant on US imports, and we have still pledged $63 BILLION over the next ten years to help fight HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria in mostly poor and tropical countries, which I wish other countries would support instead of cheering for the US to fail. > Mervyn wrote: > The very thought of?another four years of McSame? policies?makes my?heart, and gold, glow. > Mario responds: > There is a good chance that McCain will win the US presidency, but gold is far more likely to reach $1,650 if he does not. If you don't think so you have no clue about not only his opponent but also the Democrats who currently control the US Congress. But then, as we have seen in this exchange, your knowledge of the US is pretty narrow and usually grossly distorted. > But then you covered yourself when you said you had no idea when gold would reach $1,650, which makes it useless as a recommendation. The economic value of an investment does not depend simply on the buy and sell prices but also on the time difference in between. Any credible book on basic economics will explain to you why this is, and you will typically find it in the very first chapter. > Mervyn wrote: > This will be my last post on this topic for now. I simply do not have the time to explain things to non-believers. > Mario responds: > Ongoing credible belief requires reliably recognizable facts, without gross distortions interspersed. > When you cite recognizable facts I have no problem recognizing them. Unfortunately, you also include so many distortions that have nothing to do with any issue at hand that it is just as well that you have decided to take a break, as your approach must be pretty exhausting. > However, I am never too exhausted to notice and question or correct an unrecognizable fact, and this does not apply just to you, believe me. >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Bosco D'Mello wrote: > RESPONSE: This is too simple an explanation for a $4 trillion hole in the > bucket on Wall St. Reading your partisan exchange with our infamous > propagandist does not help an objective discussion. Bosco, Any person, family, corporation or country that spends more more than it has will eventually face bankruptcy. George Bush (43) has been on the mother of all spending sprees. Now the country faces the consequences. > With the annual theatrics of world leaders ongoing in NY, Bill Clinton is > all over the tube with his Clinton Global Initiative. I saw an interview > with him last night. He was asked 3 times who was to blame for this $4 > trillion fiasco. He did not even come close to blaming Bush. He talked of > tools like Derivatives, Leverage and their inherent risks and the tech > melt-down at the end of his presidency and how all the money from that > market ended up in real-estate. And then the honchos on Wall St got into the > cab and drove the truck right into the ground - GREED!! Bill Clinton left a budget surplus. The melt down in the dot com era effected only private capital. The melt down in the financial sector today is because of govt printing more money and making credit available to people who do not qualify for it. These people cannot repay their loans. The US govt now has to use tax payers money to prop up companies that are collapsing as a result. > "For 200 years people have been betting against the US and have lost" - Bill > Clinton, NY, Sep 22/08 In my life time, the British Empire has collapsed, along with its currency. The USSR suffered the same fate. The US currency is already on its way down.. > Never mind all this blood-letting!! Tell us how we can make a killing > without having to buy a house in Arizona or Texas or the Carolinas > for a song. The secret, as always, is "buy low, sell high." My bet is that gold is going a lot higher. > RESPONSE: I dont think you understand Man-U!! It is no coincidence that it > was declared the richest Soccer Club and the number 1 sports brand by > Forbes. Sponsors are lined-up to get their name on their shirts, stadium and > gear. And the sponsor they chose was the worst insurance company in the world? :-) Mervyn3.0 __ Instant Messaging, free SMS, sharing photos and more... Try the new Yahoo! Canada Messenger at http://ca.beta.messenger.yahoo.com/
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Mervyn Lobo wrote: To put this in the simplest terms, Bush reduced taxes and borrowed money for a spending spree. It is just like a family man who insists in a cut in salary and then borrows/buys on credit. RESPONSE: This is too simple an explanation for a $4 trillion hole in the bucket on Wall St. Reading your partisan exchange with our infamous propagandist does not help an objective discussion. With the annual theatrics of world leaders ongoing in NY, Bill Clinton is all over the tube with his Clinton Global Initiative. I saw an interview with him last night. He was asked 3 times who was to blame for this $4 trillion fiasco. He did not even come close to blaming Bush. He talked of tools like Derivatives, Leverage and their inherent risks and the tech melt-down at the end of his presidency and how all the money from that market ended up in real-estate. And then the honchos on Wall St got into the cab and drove the truck right into the ground - GREED!! "For 200 years people have been betting against the US and have lost" - Bill Clinton, NY, Sep 22/08 I think Bush (43) has had to endure more than a fair bit of turmoil in his 8 years at the wheel thanks to non-performing predecessors including Bush (41). Hello Enron!! Hello Andersen!! Never mind all this blood-letting!! Tell us how we can make a killing without having to buy a house in Arizona or Texas or the Carolinas for a song. The next American president may decide that the American taxpayer should not be subsidizing the wages of Cristiano Ronaldo. The new President could then tell the Federal Reserve to cancel all future cheques destined for United. United would then have to sell Ronaldo to the highest bidder i.e. City. RESPONSE: I dont think you understand Man-U!! It is no coincidence that it was declared the richest Soccer Club and the number 1 sports brand by Forbes. Sponsors are lined-up to get their name on their shirts, stadium and gear. However there is still considerable debt being carried by the new owners. AIG is in the middle of their contract. If they go, there will be many more who will want their name emblazoned on their shirt:-) BTW Salgaocar Sports Club beat Sporting Club De Goa to finish third in the 2008 Manchester United Premier Cup (India) - Under 15. Also Manchester United Soccer Schools have a program in Goa - they are looking for a Goan Ronaldo. Never mind about Ronnie et al!! What are the repercussions in India (besides our portfolios:-(( ) from all these Wall St shake-n-bakes. There are a few people I know who work for Lehman and Morgan Chase in Mumbai. - Bosco PS. Wot!! Obama donors were Fannie & Freddie and he blocked legislation that would set them straight. Talk about skeletons in a young closet, eh??
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Mario Goveia wrote? > Your claim that Bush 43 is the least popular US President ever is also > false. > Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980 was the least popular and Republican Richard > Nixon in 1974 was second. Thank you, Mario. Lets see, Nixon decided that the US dollar did not need to be backed by gold. Gold went from $35 to $70 during his Presidency. Jimmy Carter's economic policies made gold go from $100 to $800. George (43) Bush economic policy has resulted in gold going from $270 to $1,000 thus far. The answer to the question of this post is quite obvious. Every time the US has an unpopular president, Americans start buying gold. > You also don't seem to know that Bush's tax policy is not one of "lower > taxes", > but of lower "income tax rates" which resulted in a tremendous INCREASE in > income taxes collected by the US Treasury. Er, the US is so broke that it is printing money like the "Wiemar Republic" There is no limit to how much money the US has to print. The USSR was the last country that tried printing money to solve its problems. It then collapsed. I will admit that the USSR's lack of victory in Afghanistan had a part to play its collapse. > $1.066 versus $$0.68 which also reflects the US role in helping the rest of > the > world economy through its imports. You seem unaware that the world economy > would collapse without US imports. Thank you. All those who have been holding on to US dollars, during the Geroge (43) Bush presidency feel the pain. The very thought of another four years of McSame policies makes my heart, and gold, glow. This will be my last post on this topic for now. I simply do not have the time to explain things to non-believers. Mervyn3.0 B. Hussein Obama for President? __ Yahoo! Canada Toolbar: Search from anywhere on the web, and bookmark your favourite sites. Download it now at http://ca.toolbar.yahoo.com.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Date: Mon, 22 Sep 2008 19:38:36 -0700 (PDT) From: Mervyn Lobo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Mario Goveia wrote:? > a) The US President does not have any greater power than the US Congress and the US Supreme Court. > Mervyn responded: > I agree. George Bush (43) has been the weakest US president ever. I guess that is why opinion polls in the US rate him?the least popular president ever. > Mario corrects the record: > You still don't get it, but you provide a great opportunity to educate all Goanetters about the nuances of the US system of government. The US Constitution puts the US President on the same level as the US Congress and the US Supreme Court. The US Congress is primarily responsible for the US budget, which you did not know. You probably also don't know that the US President is primarily responsible for foreign policy. > If Bush 43 were so weak how did he stand up to virtually the entire world and liberate 50 million Muslims from Muslim tyrants? If Bush 43 were so weak how did he stand up to all the western Europeans and ensure freedom and independance for Kosovo? > American presidents typically have low approval ratings in the middle of a war, as Truman's and Johnson's and Nixon's experiences showed as well. Bush's approval ratings, however, though low, are three times higher than the current Democrat party controlled US Congress. > Your claim that Bush 43 is the least popular US President ever is also false. Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980 was the least popular and Republican Richard Nixon in 1974 was second. > Mervyn wrote: > Once again, the Dow is at the same level it was when George (43) Bush took power. Eight years of stagnation! In addition, what George Bush (43) has set up with his policy of lower taxes and high spending abroad, are the absolute perfect conditions for STAGFLATION. > Mario responds: > Once again, the point is that you were wrong when you referred to the "collapsed financial sector" when as recently as last Friday the Dow was up 40 points over the past month, up 18% over the last 5 years and up 44% over the last ten years. > You also don't seem to know that Bush's tax policy is not one of "lower taxes", but of lower "income tax rates" which resulted in a tremendous INCREASE in income taxes collected by the US Treasury. > His failure was in not successfully opposing federal spending with presidential vetoes, which, however, Congress could have and often did over-ride. > Mervyn wrote: > If you are going to answer this post,?try and fill in the following blanks, my friend. The US?DOLLAR?was worth?_ Euro's when George Bush got into power. The US?PESO is worth? Euro's today. > Mario responds: > $1.066 versus $$0.68 which also reflects the US role in helping the rest of the world economy through its imports. You seem unaware that the world economy would collapse without US imports. > Mervyn wrote: > No doubt about it, when you have to?save the country's country's?brokerage houses, banks and insurance companies by nationalizing them, it is an epic accomplishment. It is?especially satisfying to know that?he managed to?ruin the economy AFTER inheriting a large budget surplus from Bill Clinton. > Mario responds: > You still haven't understood that, in the US, the President cannot do any of this without Congressional approval. > Regarding the US economy, once again, you have no idea what you are talking about as the following analysis shows: > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSKSoiNbnQY0 >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Mario Goveia wrote: > a) The US President does not have any greater power than the US Congress and > the US Supreme Court. I agree. George Bush (43) has been the weakest US president ever. I guess that is why opinion polls in the US rate him the least popular president ever. > e) Regarding the "collapsed financial sector" in the US, as of the close of > business last Friday, the Dow was > up 40 points over the past month, up 18% over the last 5 years and up 44% > over the last ten years. Once again, the Dow is at the same level it was when George (43) Bush took power. Eight years of stagnation! In addition, what George Bush (43) has set up with his policy of lower taxes and high spending abroad, are the absolute perfect conditions for STAGFLATION. > f) Regarding the "rapidly declining US dollar", the dollar > strengthened versus Euros from $0.62 on 4/18/08 > tp $0.69 on 9/18/08, low by historic standards reflecting the enormous level > of imports by the US that > sustains the economies of much of the rest of the world. If you are going to answer this post, try and fill in the following blanks, my friend. The US DOLLAR was worth _ Euro's when George Bush got into power. The US PESO is worth Euro's today. Anyone holding on to US Peso's really deserves what is coming his way. > In the US we describe those who place the blame on President Bush for > everything imaginable, including > their own bilious and mean-spirited dispositions, while denying every one of > his substantial and often epic > accomplishments in the context of the enormous economic and foreign policy > problems he inherited when > he became president - anyone remember the declining US economy in early 2001 > followed by the shock > of 9/11 - as suffering from Bush Derangement Syndrome, or BDS. I agree. No doubt about it, when you have to save the country's country's brokerage houses, banks and insurance companies by nationalizing them, it is an epic accomplishment. It is especially satisfying to know that he managed to ruin the economy AFTER inheriting a large budget surplus from Bill Clinton. Another thing, the more I hear of John McSame's economic policy, the more tempted I am to send his campaign money. They very thought of another four years of the McSame economic policies is enough to send gold to $1,650 quickly. Lastly, I must congratulate you on being the originator of the business plan that depends on money from the treasury to let the business survive. Unfortunately, it looks like the big US banks have hijacked your plan and there will be no tax payers money left for you. Never the less, I am still interested in which direction you think the depressed US real estate market is heading. Mervyn3.0 B. Hussein Obama for President? __ Yahoo! Canada Toolbar: Search from anywhere on the web, and bookmark your favourite sites. Download it now at http://ca.toolbar.yahoo.com.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Mervyn Lobo wrote: > > George Bush (43) introduced policies that have resulted in budget deficits, a > collapsed financial sector and a rapidly depreciating currency. > > > When George Bush (43) was sworn in, the US dollar was strong. It took only > US $270 to buy an ounce of gold. It takes US $870 to buy that same ounce > today. > > > PS. Here is the new Manchester United jersey that is available on Newt > Gingrich's site. It sums up the > fallaciousness of the current US administation. > Mario responds: > Unlike Marlon who generally uses facts to arrive at his conclusions, regardless of whether I agree with the conclusions or not, I'm not sure why Mervyn insists on embarrassing himself like this. I also wonder where he gets his grossly distorted information from, with no perspective or context whatsoever. > Anyone who knows even a smidgen about the US system of government knows that: > a) The US President does not have any greater power than the US Congress and the US Supreme Court. > b) The US Congress is responsible for the budget in the US Constitution. The President's proposals mean nothing unless approved by both houses of Congress. We saw this most dramatically in 1973 when Congress cut off funding for the Vietnam war over the objections of President Nixon and the US had to withdraw from Vietnam, even though they were on the verge of victory, as subsequently confirmed by Vietcong Gen. Giap in his memoire. > c) The opposition Democrat party has had control of both houses of the US Congress since 2006. > d) Newt Gingrich resigned from the US Senate in 1998, two years before President Bush was elected, and is not part of the US administration. > e) Regarding the "collapsed financial sector" in the US, as of the close of business last Friday, the Dow was up 40 points over the past month, up 18% over the last 5 years and up 44% over the last ten years. > f) Regarding the "rapidly declining US dollar", the dollar strengthened versus Euros from $0.62 on 4/18/08 tp $0.69 on 9/18/08, low by historic standards reflecting the enormous level of imports by the US that sustains the economies of much of the rest of the world. > I wonder what I will need to correct next. > In the US we describe those who place the blame on President Bush for everything imaginable, including their own bilious and mean-spirited dispositions, while denying every one of his substantial and often epic accomplishments in the context of the enormous economic and foreign policy problems he inherited when he became president - anyone remember the declining US economy in early 2001 followed by the shock of 9/11 - as suffering from Bush Derangement Syndrome, or BDS. >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Bosco D'Mello wrote: > Response: Before we send Bush (43) to the 'gallows' perhaps you can enlighten > us about the specific policies you are referring to above that led to the >consequences you list. Bosco, To put this in the simplest terms, Bush reduced taxes and borrowed money for a spending spree. It is just like a family man who insists in a cut in salary and then borrows/buys on credit. > Response: Now-nowdont be drawing the Red-Devils into this...albeit > this is the only reason >this post caught my attention. You can stick any name on the front of a ManU >jersey (its the one > on the back that matters) - the lads still come through as champs!!! Go > Reds!!! The next American president may decide that the American taxpayer should not be subsidizing the wages of Cristiano Ronaldo. The new President could then tell the Federal Reserve to cancel all future cheques destined for United. United would then have to sell Ronaldo to the highest bidder i.e. City. After all their new Abu Dhabian owners are awash with cash :-) Mervyn3.0 __ Yahoo! Canada Toolbar: Search from anywhere on the web, and bookmark your favourite sites. Download it now at http://ca.toolbar.yahoo.com.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Mervyn Lobo wrote: > There is a saying in Africa, "You usually get the leaders you deserve." Response: I think the Africans copied it from the Goans, na?? Dont we get the leaders we deserve??? > George Bush (43) introduced policies that have resulted in budget deficits, a > collapsed financial sector and a rapidly depreciating currency. Response: Before we send Bush (43) to the 'gallows' perhaps you can enlighten us about the specific policies you are referring to above that led to the consequences you list. > When George Bush (43) was sworn in, the US dollar was strong. It took only > US $270 to buy an ounce of gold. It takes US $870 to buy that same ounce > today. Response: Well, somebody made a killing...and laughing all the way to the bank...oopswhich bank!! > PS. Here is the new Manchester United jersey that is available on Newt > Gingrich's site. > It sums up the fallaciousness of the current US administation Response: Now-nowdont be drawing the Red-Devils into this...albeit this is the only reason this post caught my attention. You can stick any name on the front of a ManU jersey (its the one on the back that matters) - the lads still come through as champs!!! Go Reds!!! - B
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Mario Goveia wrote: > However, while we are waiting for that to happen, the Dow is up 40 points > in the last month, up 18% the past 5 years and up 44% the past 10 years. Folks, There is a saying in Africa, "You usually get the leaders you deserve." The Dow index has increased 44% in the last ten years. All of that increase was accomplished when Bill Clinton and the Democrats were in power. They ran a Govt that produced a budget surplus, a strong economy and a strong currency. ?? ?? George Bush (43) introduced policies that have resulted in budget deficits, a collapsed financial sector and a rapidly depreciating currency. When George Bush (43) became President, the Dow was at 11,000 points. Eight years into his failed presidency, the Dow is at 11,000 points and in a crises mode. ?? ?? When George Bush (43) was sworn in, the US dollar was strong. It took only US $270 to buy an ounce of gold. It takes US $870 to buy that same ounce today. This is what happens to your currency when you consistently run budget deficits. What happens to your financial sector is even more interesting. US banks today have no capital and are almost bankrupt. They are depending on Govt guarantees to survive. Financial institutions from the rest of the world are going to great lengths to get rid of all their US based assets and currency. ?? ?? ?? ?? > Rishikesh, watch out for any "free" advice on Goanet. One expert advisor on > Goanet > recently told us that those who took his advice on the internet deserved > their fate. > That was when gold had hit $1,000 an oz. and he gleefully predicted in a > similar > "Off-topic" post that gold would go to $1,650 an oz. but without any time > frame > as to when. As you know the time frame of an investment is critical as to > it's > success. Gold closed today at around $870 and has been as low as $820 a > few weeks ago. Perhaps it will reach $1,650 sometime during my lifetime:-)) ?? ?? Mario, I do wish you a long life. However, even you, with all your rare diseases, will live to see gold at $1,650 as there is a finite amount of gold in this world. There is no limit to the amount of dollars the US govt has to print. The more it interferes in running companies, the more it interferes in the stock markets, the more money it has to print. More money in circulation results in only one thing. INFLATION. ?? The hedge against inflation is gold. ?? Mervyn3.0 PS. Here is the new Manchester United jersey that is available on Newt Gingrich's site. It sums up the fallaciousness of the current US administation. http://www.redstate.com/diaries/jeule/2008/sep/18/new-manchester-united-jersey/ __ Ask a question on any topic and get answers from real people. Go to Yahoo! Answers and share what you know at http://ca.answers.yahoo.com
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
--- Mario Goveia <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Also, to get another perspective, you may want to > read what some REAL experts are saying rather than > the absurd comparisons between the USA and the USSR > and Weimar Republic: > > > http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080919/business/wall_street_mood_1 > > > Cheers. Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2008 06:20:33 -0700 (PDT) From: Marlon Menezes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Wall Street is in a good mood (for now) because the Feds are using your money to bail them out. They are laughing all the way to bank so to speak > Mario observes: > You are right that my money is at risk - in the short run. > However, the only ones who are laughing are anti-Americans who overlook the fact that the US has the inherent ability to address its problems and recover from them - always has, always will. > Sooner or later the profligate spending and currency devaluation will end, as it always does, and the next business upswing will begin, this time, I'm guessing, from the need to become energy independent. > If it doesn't, it will be the first time in the country's history. >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
--- Mario Goveia <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Also, to get another perspective, you may want to > read what some REAL experts are saying rather than > the absurd comparisons between the USA and the USSR > and Weimar Republic: > > > http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080919/business/wall_street_mood_1 > > > Cheers. - Wall Street is in a good mood (for now) because the Feds are using your money to bail them out. They are laughing all the way to bank so to speak. For good returns, consider P2P lending. Marlon
[Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Rishikesh wrote: > Kindly let readers know your qualifications and credentials - if you are professionally qualified. > Fri Sep 19 09:04:57 PDT 2008 Mervyn Lobo mervynalobo at yahoo.ca > Those with 'professional credentials' trading in the stock market do not have any more insight to the vulgarities of the market than those who have not sat for the exams. The concept of lowering taxes, printing more money and borrowing to spend abroad, has a price. Those with money in the markets are now paying that price. The only govt that has printed more money than the current USSA adm has been the "Weimar Republic." > Mario agrees: > Rishikesh, watch out for any "free" advice on Goanet. One expert advisor on Goanet recently told us that those who took his advice on the internet deserved their fate. That was when gold had hit $1,000 an oz. and he gleefully predicted in a similar "Off-topic" post that gold would go to $1,650 an oz. but without any time frame as to when. As you know the time frame of an investment is critical as to it's success. Gold closed today at around $870 and has been as low as $820 a few weeks ago. Perhaps it will reach $1,650 sometime during my lifetime:-)) > However, while we are waiting for that to happen, the Dow is up 40 points in the last month, up 18% the past 5 years and up 44% the past 10 years. > Also, to get another perspective, you may want to read what some REAL experts are saying rather than the absurd comparisons between the USA and the USSR and Weimar Republic: > http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080919/business/wall_street_mood_1 > Cheers. >
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Rishikesh wrote: Kindly let readers know your qualifications and credentials - if you are professionally qualified. > Really sorry about, I should have posted a disclaimer. I am not having > any professional credentials re stock markets but I am a investor for > about 3 years now. Rishikesh, There is nothing to be sorry about. Those with 'professional credentials' trading in the stock market do not have any more insight to the vulgarities of the market than those who have not sat for the exams. That is why we now have thousands recently unemployed brokers. I few days ago they thought they has secure jobs at the major US brokerage houses. This morning, The United Socialist States of America, formerly known as the USA, came up with new regulations that bans the selling of stocks of 800 financial companies! Last week, the USSA nationalized insurance companies. The concept of lowering taxes, printing more money and borrowing to spend abroad, has a price. Those with money in the markets are now paying that price. The only govt that has printed more money than the current USSA adm has been the "Weimar Republic." BTW, you are right about gold. The liquidity the USSA has been forced to inject into its markets will have only one long term result. INFLATION. Mervyn3.0 On an "Question Everything Moment" a local paper today pointed out that when Manchester United plays Newcastle in the English Premier League, the match will essentially be USSA tax payers verses UK taxpayers. Manchester United is sponsored by the USSA govt owned AIG and Newcastle is sponsored by Northern Rock now owned by the UK Govt. Can you think or a more excellent way to waste taxpayers money? __ Looking for the perfect gift? Give the gift of Flickr! http://www.flickr.com/gift/
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Rishi, please have the courtesy to direct your question to a specific person, preferably by name. While you are at it, please tell us who you are and where you are posting from. Rishikesh is rather anonymous and I think contrary to Goanet rules. Roland On Thu, Sep 18, 2008 at 9:40 PM, Rishi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Kindly let readers know your qualifications and credentials - if you > are professionally qualified.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Kindly let readers know your qualifications and credentials - if you are professionally qualified. Really sorry about, I should have posted a disclaimer. I am not having any professional credentials re stock markets but I am a investor for about 3 years now. I posted about nifty at 2600-3000 based on a moneycontrol interview. (check below) Even Dow at 7200 is a technical report posted by some analyst. Also that is the reason why I suggested people interested in investing in indian stocks should do so based on a responsible advisory service like Equitymaster.com regards Rishikesh -- Q: Do you have a timeline drawn along those levels? What do you expect the markets to do when the Nifty reaches above the 4400 mark? A: If the Nifty goes below the 4400 levels, then in about six months we will see the 2600 level. We should bounce from there. There is a minimum target for the Nifty at around the 2750 mark. The Sensex is a little more bearish and the minimum target I set would be at around 9,200. http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/fii-view/sensex-not-to-fall-beyond-9k-levelsray-barros/19/08/347903 --- Also Dow at 7200 http://www.nysun.com/business/the-dow-at-7200-superbears-scary-roar/82182/ --- It seems target for Dow is around 7200 and for Indian stocks - nifty around 2600 and Sensex at 7500. Some tremors will be felt in india - mostly for real estate speculators. Interest rates should go up so would home loans, so less buying. Many who bought the second homes in Goa, might be interested in selling now. All that India growth story turned out to be Ambani growth story. Once Nifty goes to around 2600-3000, wait for a month or two for midcap and small caps to melt down and make long term investments in potential. Subscribe to a service like Equitymaster and invest in their recommended stocks. Also invest on monthly basis in a SIP (piecemeal) way. regards Rishikesh BTW Gold would really appreciate with all this problems.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
It seems target for Dow is around 7200 and for Indian stocks - nifty around 2600 and Sensex at 7500. Some tremors will be felt in india - mostly for real estate speculators. Interest rates should go up so would home loans, so less buying. Many who bought the second homes in Goa, might be interested in selling now. All that India growth story turned out to be Ambani growth story. Once Nifty goes to around 2600-3000, wait for a month or two for midcap and small caps to melt down and make long term investments in potential. Subscribe to a service like Equitymaster and invest in their recommended stocks. Also invest on monthly basis in a SIP (piecemeal) way. regards Rishikesh BTW Gold would really appreciate with all this problems.
Re: [Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Roland Francis wrote: > Never borrow to invest except for the long term (10 years or more) and > except in a strategy that has no margin call. I feel extremely sorry > for quite a few of the people I know who are being contacted by their > investment firm for margin calls on top of their current losses > running into the tens of thousands. Folks, Pay close attention to this one. Buying stocks on margin carries the same risk as a farmer drinking pesticide. > Also a professional portfolio manager knows much before you do > when things are going to happen. A professional money manager has no more ability than the rest of us have in looking into the future. A good professional money manager, however, will be able to stear you clear of the pitfalls that most novice investors fall into. On another note, most of you would know that the US is now using taxpayers money to support failing insurance companies. First the brokerage firms failed. Then the banks followed. Now its time for the insurance firms to ask for govt support. Next its going to be the US mutual fund firms. Why did this all happen? Well the US govt decided to print more money and lower interest rates. Banks started rounding up people who would never qualify for a mortgage and offered them loans. In California, office cleaners were getting loans to buy a $400,000 house. All they had to do was pay a $4,000.00 deposit and make a monthly mortgage payment of $1,000 per month. When interest rates went up, the monthly payment went to $4,000 per month. Most people had to default on their loans, which led to a glut of houses on the market and thus a collapse in prices for these houses. In the mean time, the local banks that had made these loans sold the loans to the big New York companies who then sold them to any international bank that wanted to hold US dollar assets. All US financial institutions and people who kept money in US financial institutions are now bearing the brunt of these bad loans. The US Govt response to the crises is to: 1) Print more money 2) Lower interest rates 3) Use tax payers money to support the losses of companies that are deemed "to important to fail." The last country to try these tactics was the good ol' USSR. Mervyn3.0 __ Connect with friends from any web browser - no download required. Try the new Yahoo! Canada Messenger for the Web BETA at http://ca.messenger.yahoo.com/webmessengerpromo.php
[Goanet] What To Do In Falling Markets - Off Topic
Free but useful advice, not all mine. We are in volatile markets. The steep fall of the past two days will not last much longer, but the ups and downs will, for the next 6 months. That presents buying opportunities, availed of with care and professional advice. Remember the old contrarian adage: sell when others buy and buy when others sell. Or, buy low and sell high. Now is low. Never borrow to invest except for the long term (10 years or more) and except in a strategy that has no margin call. I feel extremely sorry for quite a few of the people I know who are being contacted by their investment firm for margin calls on top of their current losses running into the tens of thousands. Be well diversified however much the temptation. Make sure your investment portfolio holds a mix of asset classes (equity, fixed income and real estate) across geographical boundaries. To do that, invest in mutual funds rather than directly in stocks. Less volatility and better sleep. Also a professional portfolio manager knows much before you do when things are going to happen. You can buy meaningful positions in at most 10 stocks. The average mutual fund holds 80 to 100 different investments. Don't sell in panic at this point in time. Just ride out the tumbling markets. The worst market decline in recent memory has been reversed within less than 2 years. If you have idle money, buy when it is clear that the sudden decline has stopped. You will have ample time to know this. Markets do not bounce back in mere days. Above all remember that people lose money because of only two emotions: FEAR and GREED. May you have the wisdom to avoid both. With regards from one who has ploughed through various market cycles, Roland. Toronto +1 (416) 453.3371
