Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[AntonMvs2005]

Hi,

 

Some extracts from an article pointed to by this URL :

 

http://news.com.com/IBM+works+to+make+mainframes+mainstream/2100-1010_3-1001
595.html?tag=nl

 

a)   A new machine, code-named T-Rex
 , boasts three times the performance of its predecessor, according
to Big Blue

 

b)   Farmers Insurance Group in Los Angeles. Berger is replacing five
z900
  mainframes with three z990s. He needed the new
systems' power as part of a project to consolidate the company's data center
with that of the Zurich Financial Services Group
 , which acquired Farmers. And he
needed their ability to run modern software--in this case IBM's WebSphere
package--to provide employees with a Web-based interface to
claims-processing software.

 

My Comments : We tried WebSphere on the mainframe and it is too slow and
complex.. WebSphere on the distributed platform is like IMS on the Mainframe
: Too many pieces that makes it complex because IBM build all these extra
add-on's/shells and then the mainframe shops go into their mode of many
different environments ex. Development, Test, Staging, Production. Causing
one huge piece of burocracy with Change Control etc.

What happened to providing quick solutions to the user ? That is service for
the user.. Never mind the "new" buzzword called SOA.

 

c)   but an IBM employee changed all the mainframe code names to names
of dinosaurs--carnivorous dinosaurs--after a March 2001 advertisement by
rival Sun Microsystems derided the machines as extinct beasts that should be
consigned to museums. The naming convention stuck, Zeitler said: "The next
one is called Pterodactyl."

 

d)   Big Blue describes the speed of mainframe processors not by the
clock rate--the familiar megahertz and gigahertz ratings found elsewhere in
the computing world--but rather by the length of one tick of a chip's clock.
The servers' computing ability is measured using the IBM-defined measurement
MIPS. And Big Blue refuses to subject its mainframes to the
industry-standard TPC-C
  test commonly used to compare
different systems, despite its concerted and recently successful effort to
push its Unix servers to
  the top of the list.

 

My Comment : Maybe it's the only way IBM can hide the cost per transaction ?

 

e)   The mainframe's software is also improving. Its flagship operating
system, z/OS
 , will improve in October with the release of version 1.5,
Lechner said. The new version will be able to handle 11,000 encrypted
transactions per second, compared with 7,400 for the current version 1.4,
Lechner said.

 

My Comment : People still do not get it , you have to make the supplier
(IBM) quote you on a transaction as defined  in your shop because a
transaction could be defined as anything to justify the cost of the upgrade.
Ex. They role in a new machine, they take your check for $10 million and
nothing changes for you but then IBM responds with "We did get those
improvements some where else. Ya right".

 

f) . Another speed increase will come with the new version 8 of
IBM's DB2 database software, due by the end of the year

 

My comments : AFAIK, this is mainly for the ODBC applications caused by
"peer pressure from SAP/PeopleSoft" and DB2 Version 8 burns up more CPU to
do this. The funny part here is that the ODBC users should have used "Stored
Procedures/RPC" in the first place in stead of treating the Mainframe as a
Database server. Does not say much for the software engineers at
SAP/PeopleSoft.

 

g)   "The Sun Fire 12K and Sun Fire 15K servers provide two to four
times the performance at less than half the cost, and we don't lock our
customers into expensive, complex services agreements,"

 

h)   "We continue to believe that the mainframe is a declining hardware
platform, limited by applications availability and lack of competitive
hardware offerings," "We estimate that in fiscal 2002, about a quarter of
IBM's revenues and 45 percent of its operating profits were somehow linked
to the mainframe,"

 

My Comment : Yes, but why does all the investors still keep their money in
IBM stock. All indicators points to a shrinking IBM. Is IBM doing an "Enron"
on us.

 

i) "In the time that z900 and z800 have been on the market, we've
shipped more capacity than the decade that preceded it,"

 

My Comment:

Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Craddock, Chris]

> Some extracts from an article pointed to by this URL :

These are very old articles (see my notes below.) Did you have a point
to make or are you just doing hardware archaeology 101?

>
http://news.com.com/IBM+works+to+make+mainframes+mainstream/2100-1010_3-
> 1001595.html?tag=nl

Published: May 14, 2003, 2:16 PM PDT

> a)   A new machine, code-named T-Rex
>  1000894.html?tag=nl> , boasts three times the performance of its
predecessor, according to Big Blue

Published: May 9, 2003, 5:15 PM PDT. By the way, the next generation
after T-Rex will be generally available next month. You're a lng way
behind the news.

> b) Farmers Insurance Group in Los Angeles. Berger is replacing five
>
z900

Published: October 3, 2000, 12:00 PM PDT (Now that's recent!!!)

> mainframes with three z990s. He needed the new systems' power as part
of
> a project to consolidate the company's data center with that of the
Zurich
> Financial Services Group
>
 Id
> =2100-1010-1001595&ontId=1001&lop=nl.ex> , which acquired Farmers. And
he
> needed their ability to run modern software--in this case IBM's
WebSphere
> package--to provide employees with a Web-based interface to 
> claims-processing software.

Old news. BTW, Mark Zelden (who posts here regularly) works for this
company and, knowing him personally, it seems things are going pretty
well for them with this configuration. He's not an unhappy camper at
all.

> My Comments : We tried WebSphere on the mainframe and it is too slow
and
> complex..

That's clearly in the eye of the beholder. There are quite a few big
customers out there running very high transaction rates through
Websphere. 

As for complexity... well I agree it's a bit more complex compared to
some other system's software on z/OS. From the applications side, the
tooling is a lot better than (say) CICS and IMS. And it's really just
getting off the ground. It will get a lot better, a lot faster than
either CICS or IMS are ever likely to. Compare the investments IBM is
making in those technologies and it's obvious who's getting ahead
faster.

> WebSphere on the distributed platform is like IMS on the
> Mainframe: Too many pieces that makes it complex because IBM build
> all these extra add-on's/shells and 

It doesn't seem to be too bad on Linux. I am not familiar with it on
other distributed platforms. On the positive side of things, it does
actually appear to work...

> then the mainframe shops go into their mode of many
> different environments ex. Development, Test, Staging, Production.
Causing
> one huge piece of burocracy with Change Control etc.

Perhaps, but whose fault is that? 

> What happened to providing quick solutions to the user ? That is
service
> for the user.. Never mind the "new" buzzword called SOA.

If history is any guide, WAS is a significant improvement in "quick"
relative to its direct competitors in the MF space. What's your point?

> c) but an IBM employee changed all the mainframe code names to names
> of dinosaurs--carnivorous dinosaurs--after a March 2001 advertisement
by
> rival Sun Microsystems derided the machines as extinct beasts that
should
> be consigned to museums. The naming convention stuck, Zeitler said:
"The next one is called Pterodactyl."

More ancient history. And BTW, have you checked out SUN's stock price
and market share lately? IBM and HP are eating SUN's lunch and looking
greedily at their dinner too.

> d) Big Blue describes the speed of mainframe processors not by the
> clock rate--the familiar megahertz and gigahertz ratings found
elsewhere
> in the computing world--but rather by the length of one tick of a
chip's
> clock.

Rubbish. Frequency = 1/Cycle time. Knowing either one yields the other.

> The servers' computing ability is measured using the IBM-defined
> measurement MIPS.

IBM-defined? You've gotta be kidding right? IBM has been trying to get
away from MIPS for decades. It's the customer base that clings to MIPS.

> And Big Blue refuses to subject its mainframes to the
industry-standard
> TPC-C   test commonly used to compare different systems, despite
> its concerted and recently successful effort to push its Unix servers
to
>  1000822.html?tag=nl>  the top of the list.
> My Comment: Maybe it's the only way IBM can hide the cost per
transaction

My comment; Baloney. TPC-C is as easily and frequently abused as any of
the earlier benchmarks and it's awfully expensive to run a legitimate
TPC-C at the real-world scale these systems are capable of. That's why
-EVERYONE- who runs a TPC-C benchmark fudges the hell out of it.

The customer base doesn't care about TPC numbers in the slightest. IBM
looks at that effort and legitimately asks "why bother?"

Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[AntonMvs2005]

Hi,

Chris, I would explain this "date" phenomena slowly for you :

a) Go here http://news.com.com/ for the latest news
b) Then you browse down this page to this article :

All CNET News.com blogs (Last updated: Sep 25, 2005 11:41 AM )

IBM: IBM at the Emmy's

c) Then you click on "IBM at the Emmy's"
d) Then you read this page dated September 23, 2005 5:44 PM PDT
e) Then you click on "IBM wants to rejuvenate the mainframe workforce"..
   dated August 22, 2005 4:54 PM PDT

Then you get to the article that was presented to you earlier on.

Note: Do not worry, for somebody that did English as a second language in
school, you are not doing to badly...

Anton

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Blaicher, Chris]

Anton,

No matter how you got to the article, you were pretty lax in checking
the content.

I can go to the most widely read book in the world, and quote passages
where the world is declared flat, but that does not make it so, or
relevant to today's knowledge.

I also find your tone in the note comment of your response to Chris
Craddock slightly offensive. And that has nothing to do with the fact
that we both work for the same company.  I don't think I have ever met
Chris.  I believe he is in Houston, while I am in Austin.

I am forced to repeat Chris' question.  Did you have a point, or did you
just want to blast away at IBM?  If you want to blast at IBM, I think
many of us have pet peeves with them, but we don't go back in time to
attempt to beat them up with out of date information.  Find something
current and relevant and have at it.


Christopher Y. Blaicher
BMC Software, Inc.
Personal opinion only

-Original Message-
From: IBM Mainframe Discussion List [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of AntonMvs2005
Sent: Sunday, September 25, 2005 3:16 PM
To: IBM-MAIN@BAMA.UA.EDU
Subject: Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

Hi,

Chris, I would explain this "date" phenomena slowly for you :

a) Go here http://news.com.com/ for the latest news
b) Then you browse down this page to this article :

All CNET News.com blogs (Last updated: Sep 25, 2005 11:41 AM )

IBM: IBM at the Emmy's

c) Then you click on "IBM at the Emmy's"
d) Then you read this page dated September 23, 2005 5:44 PM PDT
e) Then you click on "IBM wants to rejuvenate the mainframe workforce"..
   dated August 22, 2005 4:54 PM PDT

Then you get to the article that was presented to you earlier on.

Note: Do not worry, for somebody that did English as a second language
in
school, you are not doing to badly...

Anton

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Gibney, David Allen,Jr]

   Obviously, you folks don't follow SAG-L, where we've learned to
ignore most of Anton's flame bait :) 

-Original Message-
From: IBM Mainframe Discussion List [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Blaicher, Chris
Sent: Sunday, September 25, 2005 7:05 PM
To: IBM-MAIN@BAMA.UA.EDU
Subject: Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

Anton,

No matter how you got to the article, you were pretty lax in checking
the content.

I can go to the most widely read book in the world, and quote passages
where the world is declared flat, but that does not make it so, or
relevant to today's knowledge.

I also find your tone in the note comment of your response to Chris
Craddock slightly offensive. And that has nothing to do with the fact
that we both work for the same company.  I don't think I have ever met
Chris.  I believe he is in Houston, while I am in Austin.

I am forced to repeat Chris' question.  Did you have a point, or did you
just want to blast away at IBM?  If you want to blast at IBM, I think
many of us have pet peeves with them, but we don't go back in time to
attempt to beat them up with out of date information.  Find something
current and relevant and have at it.


Christopher Y. Blaicher
BMC Software, Inc.
Personal opinion only

-Original Message-
From: IBM Mainframe Discussion List [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of AntonMvs2005
Sent: Sunday, September 25, 2005 3:16 PM
To: IBM-MAIN@BAMA.UA.EDU
Subject: Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

Hi,

Chris, I would explain this "date" phenomena slowly for you :

a) Go here http://news.com.com/ for the latest news
b) Then you browse down this page to this article :

All CNET News.com blogs (Last updated: Sep 25, 2005 11:41 AM )

IBM: IBM at the Emmy's

c) Then you click on "IBM at the Emmy's"
d) Then you read this page dated September 23, 2005 5:44 PM PDT
e) Then you click on "IBM wants to rejuvenate the mainframe workforce"..
   dated August 22, 2005 4:54 PM PDT

Then you get to the article that was presented to you earlier on.

Note: Do not worry, for somebody that did English as a second language
in school, you are not doing to badly...

Anton

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Blaicher, Chris]

David,

Thanks for the info.  I will put his address in my junk mail list.

Most on this list are hard working people.  Some with strong opinions,
but basically all are for the betterment of all on the list.

Chris


-Original Message-
From: IBM Mainframe Discussion List [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Gibney, David Allen,Jr
Sent: Sunday, September 25, 2005 9:08 PM
To: IBM-MAIN@BAMA.UA.EDU
Subject: Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

   Obviously, you folks don't follow SAG-L, where we've learned to
ignore most of Anton's flame bait :) 

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Anton Britz]

Hi guys,

Just a few corrections just morning:

a) My initially email was not an intent to flame IBM or BMC
b) I do not know Chris Craddock, Chris Blaicher or David Allen Gibbey Jnr.

What was my intention?

I did read the local news as explained in a previous email and I then
extracted some of this article and added my experiences or comments in
between these articles. My experiences are recent, even if some of the
articles are old.
Some of the information that I am aware of was with-held because of obvious
reasons.

Conclusion:

So none of it was intent to "Flame" anybody. The fact that somebody working
for BMC could not see that I added my comments in between extracts from the
article, does not justify a war on IBM-MAIN.

I do know that BMC laid of many people which could be the reason why BMC is
a little touchy about my posting stating that the software companies are
bleeding.

I also know that the educational intuitions in the USA are "carrying" lots
of dead wood that contributes to the exorbitant cost of education in the
USA but please do not blame me for this because I did not ask Washington
State University to introduce me to any computer email list before.

David Jnr.: Search the archives and you will see that I have been active on
IBM-MAIN before. I love IBM because that is what I spent most of my life
doing and not once, did I speak for you or anybody else on this list.

Enjoy your day!!

Anton

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[AntonMvs2005]

Hi,

What I saw this week on this list is that most of us agrees with our view of
the IBM market place "On Earth". 

Needless to say , that is why I phrased the posting with "Is a Hurricane
about to hit IBM" and I ended the posting with the question :

"Why does the investors not see what I am seeing ?"

I am aware that IBM's Consulting section is still making a few dollars for
them but it only a matter of time for the American market to mature and
realize, these people are "kids".

I am also aware that IBM's PR/marketing section is paying for full page
adverts in the Wall Street journal but it is interesting to note the
targeted "potential growth sectors". 

Six month a 'go, I think it's 6 to 12 months, they tried to target the
medical sector. At the same time "W" also suddenly announced that he feels
the FEDS need to put more money into the IS departments of the Medical
sector in the US. Anybody else noticed this ?

This week, they decided their potential growth sectors are : 

Mid-range/Servers/On Demand and one big advert for IBM Consulting.

Note: No mainframe... Zippo... zero. That is why I ended my initial posting
with the question :

"Is the FEDS keeping IBM afloat just as they do with some of the American
Airlines"

Footnote: This is not an attempt to "knock" IBM. It's an attempt to try and
understand what the Captain of Ship is thinking.

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Edward E. Jaffe]

AntonMvs2005 wrote:


"Why does the investors not see what I am seeing ?"
 


[snip]


Six month a 'go, I think it's 6 to 12 months, they tried to target the
medical sector. At the same time "W" also suddenly announced that he feels
the FEDS need to put more money into the IS departments of the Medical
sector in the US. Anybody else noticed this ?
 


[snip]


"Is the FEDS keeping IBM afloat just as they do with some of the American
Airlines"
 



I don't believe T. J. Watson had anything whatsoever to do with JFK's 
assassination.


IBM-Main is hardly an appropriate place for discussing conspiracy theory.

- 
-

| Edward E. Jaffe||
| Mgr, Research & Development| [EMAIL PROTECTED]|
| Phoenix Software International | Tel: (310) 338-0400 x318   |
| 5200 W Century Blvd, Suite 800 | Fax: (310) 338-0801|
| Los Angeles, CA 90045  | http://www.phoenixsoftware.com |
-

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[AntonMvs2005]

Hi,

Most of us could be seen as "Sitting in a dark room reading IBM manuals for
a living", or that's what I have been doing for most of my life but I am
trying to think a little "wider".

So, you might say where are you going with this ?

Anybody remembers where JES comes from ... and by the way , for those that
do not read the newspapers, NASA also tried to cash in on the "NEW ORLEANS"
thing by saying "They need  101 Billion dollars to build a better and more
reliable shuttle". They claimed that , if it was not for NASA , then nobody
would have even seen the Hurricane coming because they provided the
satellite images to the National Hurricane centre.

Ok.. ok... let me get to the point because the people on this list want to
see the point :

Speculation : Because the FEDS are spending like a drunken sailor. What's
going to happen in the next 6 to 12 months is that there is going to be a
major backlash when the average American starts to understand the tremendous
deficit they are going to sit with. Then you are going to have a 
"over correction" with tremendous budget cuts.  Meaning lots of IBM
computers in Federal/State sites will be merged into single computer
centers. Even NASA will financially suffocate because lots of people are
starting to say "Why do we need to go to MARS if we have no jobs on EARTH".

SO we will have a "correction/downsizing" in the mainframe world. Just like
what happened in the "Credit Card" world in the last 6 months. This week the
American Car companies announced that they are forcing their suppliers to a
smaller group, to reduce costs. Meaning more people will lose their jobs.

Conclusion :

It's a sad day for those of us that made our living in the Mainframe World
because things are going to even get more tight.

That is why I called this thread "Is a Hurricane going to hit IBM" !!

Note: My apology to the open minded more intelligent participants of this
list but I unfortunately had to explain more much more for the lights to
come on for some.

Anton









Speculation : ( That's when something is not factual)

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Anne & Lynn Wheeler]

AntonMvs2005 wrote:
> Most of us could be seen as "Sitting in a dark room reading IBM manuals for
> a living", or that's what I have been doing for most of my life but I am
> trying to think a little "wider".
> 
> So, you might say where are you going with this ?
> 
> Anybody remembers where JES comes from ...

how many people know where the spring '68 SHARE meeting was held? How
many attended? Did you get to have a tour of the local large installation?

for some slight topic drift ... some posts x-posted to comp.arch, intel,
& ibm/pc hardware newsgroups ... strays into terminal emulation and the
point behind SAA?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#25 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#31 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#33 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#35 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#36 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#38 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#40 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#42 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#43 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#44 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#45 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#46 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#47 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005q.html#48 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005r.html#0 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005r.html#1 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005r.html#2 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005r.html#8 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005r.html#9 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005r.html#10 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005r.html#11 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2005r.html#12 Intel strikes back with a
parallel x86 design

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Craddock, Chris]

> So, you might say where are you going with this ?

I was kind of hoping you'd get to the point eventually.

> Anybody remembers where JES comes from ... and by the way , for those
that
> do not read the newspapers, NASA also tried to cash in on the "NEW
> ORLEANS"
> thing by saying "They need  101 Billion dollars to build a better and
more
> reliable shuttle". They claimed that , if it was not for NASA , then
> nobody
> would have even seen the Hurricane coming because they provided the
> satellite images to the National Hurricane centre.

It's largely true that without NASA we would not have satellite imaging.
And a few of those satellites have been launched from shuttle cargo
bays, but most are launched on conventional rocket boosters. It's also
possible that someone tried to link weather forecasting with the shuttle
program. I don't think anyone in the business takes that seriously, so
it's almost irrelevant what gets publicized in the press.
 
> Ok.. ok... let me get to the point because the people on this list
want to
> see the point :

Yep.

> Speculation : Because the FEDS are spending like a drunken sailor.
What's
> going to happen in the next 6 to 12 months is that there is going to
be a
> major backlash when the average American starts to understand the
> tremendous deficit they are going to sit with. Then you are going to
> have a "over correction" with tremendous budget cuts.

Quite possibly.

> Meaning lots of IBM computers in Federal/State sites will be merged
> into single computer centers.

Maybe and maybe not. Doing that typically costs real money. Combining
computer centers can make sense in terms of reduced overheads, but you
still need the iron to run the business and the people (and software) to
run the iron. Then there are the requirements for disaster recovery and
sox. Those are pushing the feds in the opposite direction. More iron,
not less. What's the net effect? I don't know, but I'd bet large that
IBM wins either way.

> SO we will have a "correction/downsizing" in the mainframe world. Just
> like what happened in the "Credit Card" world in the last 6 months.

The "downsizing" is real, but it has been going on for years and it's
not limited to mainframes. IT has lost it's grip on the purse-strings.
The economy is very large and IT spending is a tiny tiny percentage of
it. I would not expect to see much overall impact on IT. Prognosticators
have predicted Armageddon for years and it has not arrived. I would be a
lot more worried about the impact on federal contractors and other
service providers. 

> Conclusion :
> 
> It's a sad day for those of us that made our living in the Mainframe
World
> because things are going to even get more tight.

Perhaps it would be more accurate to say "the IT world". I know plenty
of people in the business who are having trouble finding/keeping jobs
who have never even seen a mainframe. That's a fact of life in these
times. 

For a really good laugh, see my friend Pat Helland singing "Bye Bye Mr
CIO Guy" here 

CC

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Ron and Jenny Hawkins]

An American making English as a second language criticisms??? That's
seriously lame... 

> 
> Note: Do not worry, for somebody that did English as a second language in
> school, you are not doing to badly...
> 
> Anton
> 

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Bill Fairchild]

 
In a message dated 10/2/2005 1:57:51 P.M. Central Daylight Time,  
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

>how many people know where the spring '68 SHARE meeting was  held?
I do for one.  Headquarters hotel was the Shamrock Hilton in  downtown 
Houston.
 
>How many attended?
I did, for one.
 
>Did you get to have a tour of the local large  installation?
Yes.  I think it was on Friday, which is typically a slow day at  SHARE.  A 
large bunch of us SHARE attendees were bused to the Manned  Spacecraft Center 
near Houston, where we saw a roomful of IBM 360/75s churning  out work and 
crunching numbers, all paid for by FEDS (also known as NASA)  under the Project 
Apollo program which was implementing the following  statement by the then late 
President JFK:  “I  believe this nation should commit itself to achieving the 
goal, before this  decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning 
him safely to  Earth.  ... in a very real sense,  it will not be one man going 
the moon ... it will be an entire nation.” [25  MAY 1961; speech to a special 
joint session of Congress]
 
This  project paid for a large number of full-time IBM programmers under 
their  Federal Systems Division who were working at this facility near Houston, 
among  whom were the two original developers of HASP, Tom Simpson and Bob  
Crabtree.  HASP evolved into JES2, recently discussed in another  thread.
 
I  don't think it is conspiratorial if you try accurately to predict the 
national  economy 6 to 12 months into the future.  I think it is better 
referred 
to  as realism.  If your predictions happen to be based on real facts  that are 
unknown to or disbelieved by the masses, then so be  it.
 
Real  fact:  almost all large American businesses are now the recipients  of 
large funding by various U.S. government programs as well as supported  
indirectly by special tax breaks.  I have no knowledge that IBM is  receiving 
any 
special treatment in this regard, but they have had a large  Federal Systems 
Division for many decades that does work under contracts that  are publicly and 
competitively bid on, just as many other large companies  do.
 
I  have read alternative news items discussing the [conspiratorial] idea that 
the  U.S. Federal Reserve System is intervening to support the U.S. stock 
markets,  but I have never read anything that claims the U.S. is supporting IBM 
 
disproportionally more than it supports all other big businesses, either  
directly through contracted work or indirectly through tax breaks or possible  
stock market manipulation.
 
Competitively  achieved contract awards are publicly documented (I think in 
Commerce  Business Daily).  Tax breaks are publicly documented in the 
Congressional  Record.  Stock market manipulation is a matter of  opinion.
 
Bill  Fairchild



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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Anne & Lynn Wheeler]

[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
> This project paid for a large number of full-time IBM programmers
> under their Federal Systems Division who were working at this
> facility near Houston, among whom were the two original developers
> of HASP, Tom Simpson and Bob Crabtree.  HASP evolved into JES2,
> recently discussed in another thread.
>
> I don't think it is conspiratorial if you try accurately to predict
> the national economy 6 to 12 months into the future.  I think it is
> better referred to as realism.  If your predictions happen to be
> based on real facts that are unknown to or disbelieved by the
> masses, then so be it.

my wife did a stint in jes group reporting to crabtree ... working on
architecture ... took a look at how to merge jes3 mutli-system operation
with jes2 multi-access spool (there was even a period where executive
direction that there would be no new jes2 development ... it would all
go into jes3). this was before she got con'ed into going to be pok to be
in charge of loosely-coupled architecture.

some past collected hasp-related postings
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/subtopic.html#hasp

there was a thread in a totally different n.g. in the mid-90s that was
looking at doing economic predictions for 2020 (25 years out). a shorter
term item looked at as part of this was that y2k remediation work was
looming with requirements for significant additional resources. however,
it happened to correspond to the internet bubble ... which was
siphoning off all available resources into high flying internet jobs.
not a lot of people were paying attention that somewhat as a result, a
lot of legacy bread & butter work was going offshore (at least not until
much later after it was already a fait accompli).

i had the misfortune to predict that the company would go into the red
... about the time the corporate committee was predicting world-wide
revenues were going to double from $60b to $120b ... and were spending
enormous amounts on adding additional manufacturing capacity. i don't
think they really understood the shift going on in computing processing
to open & commodity priced hardware.

the scenario was somewhat a continuation of the economic analysis that
had been behind some of the justification for future system ... some
collected fs postings
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/subtopic.html#futuresys

... note, i hadn't faired much better with FS ... at the time, i would
periodically draw analogies between the FS project and a cult film that
had been playing continuously for several years down in central sq
(which didn't exactly make friends with enormous number of people
backing FS).

one reference mentioning FS
http://www.ecole.org/Crisis_and_change_1995_1.htm

from above:

IBM tried to react by launching a major project called the 'Future
System' (FS) in the early 1970's. The idea was to get so far ahead
that the competition would never be able to keep up, and to have such
a high level of integration that it would be impossible for
competitors to follow a compatible niche strategy. However, the
project failed because the objectives were too ambitious for the
available technology.  Many of the ideas that were developed were
nevertheless adapted for later generations. Once IBM had acknowledged
this failure, it launched its 'box strategy', which called for
competitiveness with all the different types of compatible
sub-systems. But this proved to be difficult because of IBM's cost
structure and its R&D spending, and the strategy only resulted in a
partial narrowing of the price gap between IBM and its rivals.

... snip ...

part of the subject was the advent of clone controllers. when i was an
undergraudate ... i got involved in project to reverse engineer the ibm
channel interface and build our own controller ... someplace there was a
write-up blaiming us for inception of clone controller business
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/subtopic.html#360pcm

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Bill Fairchild]

 
In a message dated 10/16/2005 4:14:06 P.M. Central Daylight Time,  
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

when i  was an
undergraudate ... i got involved in project to reverse engineer the  ibm
channel interface and build our own controller ... someplace there was  a
write-up blaiming us for inception of clone controller  business



Reminds me of this oft-encountered sequence:
The  six phases of a project:
1.  Initial excitement
2.  Confusion
3.  Disillusionment
4.  Search for the guilty
5.  Punishment for the innocent
6.  Praise and honor for the  non-participants
Bill  Fairchild

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Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Shmuel Metz (Seymour J.)]

In <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, on 10/16/2005
   at 03:13 PM, Anne & Lynn Wheeler <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> said:

>IBM tried to react by launching a major project called the 'Future
>System' (FS) in the early 1970's. 

I remember getting a chuckle when it surfaced; the Hebrew word "efes"
means "nothing". That was IBM's opening OCO push, AFAIK.
 
-- 
 Shmuel (Seymour J.) Metz, SysProg and JOAT
 ISO position; see  
We don't care. We don't have to care, we're Congress.
(S877: The Shut up and Eat Your spam act of 2003)

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(fwd) Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?

[Clark Morris]

On Sat, 1 Oct 2005 15:14:47 -0700, in bit.listserv.ibm-main "Edward E.
Jaffe" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

>AntonMvs2005 wrote:
>
>>"Why does the investors not see what I am seeing ?"
>>
>>
>[snip]
>
>>Six month a 'go, I think it's 6 to 12 months, they tried to target the
>>medical sector. At the same time "W" also suddenly announced that he feels
>>the FEDS need to put more money into the IS departments of the Medical
>>sector in the US. Anybody else noticed this ?
>>
>>
>[snip]
>
>>"Is the FEDS keeping IBM afloat just as they do with some of the American
>>Airlines"
>>
>>
>
>I don't believe T. J. Watson had anything whatsoever to do with JFK's
>assassination.

I don't understand Ed's comment.  My reading of the original poster
was that IBM seems to be following wherever the latest Washington wind
is blowing.  The most conspiracy I see in the posting is that
Washington may be creating some of the markets and maybe trying to
prop up the old line computer makers.  

I am skeptical about the long term health of the mainframe.  A large
percentage of the COBOL applications I worked on were overripe for
replacement or drastic overhaul.  The market for COBOL programmers
stinks.  Companies and other organizations still are operating on the
delusion that since they haven't figured out how to communicate
requirements to their IT staff they can cure the problem by
outsourcing.I am amazed that outsourcing seems to work as well as
it does.  
>
>IBM-Main is hardly an appropriate place for discussing conspiracy theory.
>
>-
> -
>| Edward E. Jaffe||
>| Mgr, Research & Development| [EMAIL PROTECTED]|
>| Phoenix Software International | Tel: (310) 338-0400 x318   |
>| 5200 W Century Blvd, Suite 800 | Fax: (310) 338-0801|
>| Los Angeles, CA 90045  | http://www.phoenixsoftware.com |
> -
>
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