Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Allan Streib via Mercedes]

Heaven in Europe is where

the English are the policemen
   
the French are the cooks

the German are the mechanics

the Italians are the lovers

and the Swiss organize everything


Hell in Europe is where

the Germans are the policemen

the English are the cooks

the French are the mechanics

the Swiss are the lovers

and the Italians organize everything



Curley McLain via Mercedes  writes:

> In germany, the trains are clean, well maintained, and run on time, with 
> efficient and courteous staff.
>
> In Italy, the trains run, mostly, except when they don't.  I am not 
> being critical,  It is a cultural difference, and I love both, because 
> they ARE different.
> One shortline haul, from Foggia to Metaponto and points eastward is a 
> case in point.   The train was late leaving, ran maybe 40-60 miles and 
> stopped.  Not at a station.   After a while, the train crew were 
> standing beside the cab of the engine, with a dirty (well used) manual 
> and having what I call an Italian conversation.  Each pointing to one or 
> the other, or the book, with other hands flailing, voices alternately 
> raised or lowered, each passionately arguing his point.   then one to 
> three would disappear, then they'd reconvene and carry on the 
> troubleshooting conversation.   Eventually they got the locomotive 
> started, and we arrived at dark.  were were 6-8 hours late on a 1.5 to 2 
> hour trainride.  The taxis had all gone home.   The van that was 
> supposed to meet us had left.  Nobody spoke english.   we could not call 
> because we did not have an italian phone card.  We had not been able to 
> get lire yet, we had only DM or Pounds.  Finally the last man left at 
> the station waiting for his ride took pity on us, and loaned us his 
> phone card.  He was not an Italian.   with his broken Italian and our 
> English we determined that he was an "Alb" and we figured out we knew 
> that as albanian.   We thanked him for his kindness and tried to offer 
> DM but he refused.    I absolutely love Italy and Italians, but they do 
> not think or act like Germans ot English or Americans.   Others have 
> already mentioned the interaction and closeness, but there are other 
> cultural differences too, as I have attempted to point out in this 
> experience.
>
> The week in Southern Italy is one of the highlights of my life.
>
>
> Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes wrote on 3/15/20 10:29 PM:
>> 2 reasons:
>> 1) The Chinese are lying about everything to do with this disease
>> 2) the disease has overwhelmed the ability of the medical system to deal 
>> with the afflicted
>>
>> --FT
>> Sent from iPhone
>>
>>> On Mar 15, 2020, at 10:01 PM, Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes 
>>>  wrote:
>>>
>>> What I don’t understand about Italy is why their mortality rate from this 
>>> disease is over 7%. I get how they have an older population but still. Very 
>>> scary.
>>>
>>>
>
>
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
>
> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
>
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
>

-- 
Allan Streib
Indiana University
Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering
Digital Science Center | Intelligent Systems Engineering | FutureSystems

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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes]

Good site for daily tracking of COV 19 testing.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking


On Mon, Mar 16, 2020 at 8:47 AM Rick Knoble via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> Max says:
>
> >I'm still trying to get my head around the reason for the extreme
> reactions
>
> It's political, so as such, not up for discussion on this particular forum.
>
> >I think we are being played.
>
> Ya think?
> Unfortunately, if/when we are in a recession because of the reaction (or
> overreaction) to this viral outbreak, a lot of people are going to suffer.
>
> BTW, Britain is following the exact opposite tack (tac?) They are letting
> the virus go uninhibited, so that they can get a "herd immunity" and not
> have annual outbreaks every year. Time will tell.
>
> Rick
>
> 
> From: Mercedes  on behalf of Meade Dillon
> via Mercedes 
> Sent: Monday, March 16, 2020 7:32:45 AM
> To: Mercedes Discussion List 
> Cc: Meade Dillon 
> Subject: Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real
>
> I'm still trying to get my head around the reason for the extreme reactions
> to COVID-19 vs. H1N1 back in 2009.
>
> Here in the US of A, H1N1 Swine flu caused 60.8 million illnesses, 273,304
> hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths.  Over 200,000 probably died
> worldwide.  Does anyone remember sealing off our borders, cancellation of
> all sporting events and concerts, stock market crash?
>
> The H1N1 flu primarily affected children and adults under 65.  COVID-19
> affects the almost the mirror image, those above 70; or those with
> underlying health conditions.  Which age group is more important to our
> economy?  No judgement here, but I'll bet that most economists would say
> that deaths and illness among the working age and future working age
> populations will have a greater impact on GDP than those retired in their
> 70s - 80s - 90s.  No stock market crash, no panic.  Barrack Hussein Obama
> was playing golf on the day his admin declared a national emergency.
> Congress under Democrat control was focused on passing Obama-care.
>
> China, where they completely botched their initial reaction by hiding the
> evidence and ignoring the threat for 2 or 3 months, allowing it to spread
> far and wide not only in their country but across the globe, has only lost
> a couple thousand people (if you believe their numbers) and the number of
> new cases is leveling off.  America is in a much stronger position than
> China, why the hell are we in such a panic?
>
> I think we are being played.
> -
> Max
> Charleston SC
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
>
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>
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
>
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>
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
>
>
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Rick Knoble via Mercedes]

Max says:

>I'm still trying to get my head around the reason for the extreme reactions

It's political, so as such, not up for discussion on this particular forum.

>I think we are being played.

Ya think?
Unfortunately, if/when we are in a recession because of the reaction (or 
overreaction) to this viral outbreak, a lot of people are going to suffer.

BTW, Britain is following the exact opposite tack (tac?) They are letting the 
virus go uninhibited, so that they can get a "herd immunity" and not have 
annual outbreaks every year. Time will tell.

Rick


From: Mercedes  on behalf of Meade Dillon via 
Mercedes 
Sent: Monday, March 16, 2020 7:32:45 AM
To: Mercedes Discussion List 
Cc: Meade Dillon 
Subject: Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

I'm still trying to get my head around the reason for the extreme reactions
to COVID-19 vs. H1N1 back in 2009.

Here in the US of A, H1N1 Swine flu caused 60.8 million illnesses, 273,304
hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths.  Over 200,000 probably died
worldwide.  Does anyone remember sealing off our borders, cancellation of
all sporting events and concerts, stock market crash?

The H1N1 flu primarily affected children and adults under 65.  COVID-19
affects the almost the mirror image, those above 70; or those with
underlying health conditions.  Which age group is more important to our
economy?  No judgement here, but I'll bet that most economists would say
that deaths and illness among the working age and future working age
populations will have a greater impact on GDP than those retired in their
70s - 80s - 90s.  No stock market crash, no panic.  Barrack Hussein Obama
was playing golf on the day his admin declared a national emergency.
Congress under Democrat control was focused on passing Obama-care.

China, where they completely botched their initial reaction by hiding the
evidence and ignoring the threat for 2 or 3 months, allowing it to spread
far and wide not only in their country but across the globe, has only lost
a couple thousand people (if you believe their numbers) and the number of
new cases is leveling off.  America is in a much stronger position than
China, why the hell are we in such a panic?

I think we are being played.
-
Max
Charleston SC
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Meade Dillon via Mercedes]

I'm still trying to get my head around the reason for the extreme reactions
to COVID-19 vs. H1N1 back in 2009.

Here in the US of A, H1N1 Swine flu caused 60.8 million illnesses, 273,304
hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths.  Over 200,000 probably died
worldwide.  Does anyone remember sealing off our borders, cancellation of
all sporting events and concerts, stock market crash?

The H1N1 flu primarily affected children and adults under 65.  COVID-19
affects the almost the mirror image, those above 70; or those with
underlying health conditions.  Which age group is more important to our
economy?  No judgement here, but I'll bet that most economists would say
that deaths and illness among the working age and future working age
populations will have a greater impact on GDP than those retired in their
70s - 80s - 90s.  No stock market crash, no panic.  Barrack Hussein Obama
was playing golf on the day his admin declared a national emergency.
Congress under Democrat control was focused on passing Obama-care.

China, where they completely botched their initial reaction by hiding the
evidence and ignoring the threat for 2 or 3 months, allowing it to spread
far and wide not only in their country but across the globe, has only lost
a couple thousand people (if you believe their numbers) and the number of
new cases is leveling off.  America is in a much stronger position than
China, why the hell are we in such a panic?

I think we are being played.
-
Max
Charleston SC
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Rick Knoble via Mercedes]

>NO vitamin C

I was in Costco for Vitamin C the other day. They had plenty.

Rick


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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Meade Dillon via Mercedes]

4) Smoking is more common, and air pollution in Italy was much worse than
the US until recently.  I think both have contributed to lung damage.
-
Max
Charleston SC


On Mon, Mar 16, 2020 at 5:31 AM fmiser via Mercedes 
wrote:

> > Buggered wrote:
>
> > 2 reasons:
> > 1) The Chinese are lying about everything to do with this
> > disease 2) the disease has overwhelmed the ability of the
> > medical system to deal with the afflicted
>
> 3) a lot of people are sick and not reporting it?
>
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>
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>
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[fmiser via Mercedes]

> Buggered wrote:

> 2 reasons:
> 1) The Chinese are lying about everything to do with this
> disease 2) the disease has overwhelmed the ability of the
> medical system to deal with the afflicted 

3) a lot of people are sick and not reporting it?

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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Curley McLain via Mercedes]

In germany, the trains are clean, well maintained, and run on time, with 
efficient and courteous staff.


In Italy, the trains run, mostly, except when they don't.  I am not 
being critical,  It is a cultural difference, and I love both, because 
they ARE different.
One shortline haul, from Foggia to Metaponto and points eastward is a 
case in point.   The train was late leaving, ran maybe 40-60 miles and 
stopped.  Not at a station.   After a while, the train crew were 
standing beside the cab of the engine, with a dirty (well used) manual 
and having what I call an Italian conversation.  Each pointing to one or 
the other, or the book, with other hands flailing, voices alternately 
raised or lowered, each passionately arguing his point.   then one to 
three would disappear, then they'd reconvene and carry on the 
troubleshooting conversation.   Eventually they got the locomotive 
started, and we arrived at dark.  were were 6-8 hours late on a 1.5 to 2 
hour trainride.  The taxis had all gone home.   The van that was 
supposed to meet us had left.  Nobody spoke english.   we could not call 
because we did not have an italian phone card.  We had not been able to 
get lire yet, we had only DM or Pounds.  Finally the last man left at 
the station waiting for his ride took pity on us, and loaned us his 
phone card.  He was not an Italian.   with his broken Italian and our 
English we determined that he was an "Alb" and we figured out we knew 
that as albanian.   We thanked him for his kindness and tried to offer 
DM but he refused.    I absolutely love Italy and Italians, but they do 
not think or act like Germans ot English or Americans.   Others have 
already mentioned the interaction and closeness, but there are other 
cultural differences too, as I have attempted to point out in this 
experience.


The week in Southern Italy is one of the highlights of my life.


Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes wrote on 3/15/20 10:29 PM:

2 reasons:
1) The Chinese are lying about everything to do with this disease
2) the disease has overwhelmed the ability of the medical system to deal with 
the afflicted

--FT
Sent from iPhone


On Mar 15, 2020, at 10:01 PM, Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes 
 wrote:

What I don’t understand about Italy is why their mortality rate from this 
disease is over 7%. I get how they have an older population but still. Very 
scary.





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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes]

2 reasons:
1) The Chinese are lying about everything to do with this disease 
2) the disease has overwhelmed the ability of the medical system to deal with 
the afflicted 

--FT
Sent from iPhone

> On Mar 15, 2020, at 10:01 PM, Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> What I don’t understand about Italy is why their mortality rate from this 
> disease is over 7%. I get how they have an older population but still. Very 
> scary.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone
> 
>> On Mar 15, 2020, at 8:43 PM, Max Dillon via Mercedes  
>> wrote:
>> 
>> You're exactly right Curt, Italians are much more affectionate, and their 
>> idea of personal space is much closer than ours.
>> 
>> Max Dillon
>> Charleston SC
>> 
>> Mar 15, 2020 8:22:51 PM Curt Raymond via Mercedes :
>> 
>>> Italy is a very different country from the USA and I find it difficult to 
>>> draw any conclusions on how things will be here based on there. They have 
>>> very little "country" or at least the way we think of it. Even out in the 
>>> hinterlands people are packed into villages and interact with each other 
>>> much more closely than we do here.
>>> 
>>> They also touch each other WAY more than we do. When we were there last 
>>> spring people we'd just met were hugging us and kissing our cheeks in a way 
>>> we'd only do for close family or friends here.
>>> 
>>> Interesting times anyway...
>>> -Curt
>>> 
 On Sunday, March 15, 2020, 6:56:07 PM EDT, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes 
  wrote:
>>> 
>>> I should say that I/we will be very happy to be proven incorrect, but Italy
>>> is up to 1800 deaths from 25000 cases, which is much higher than China's
>>> reported figures.
>>> 
>>> This guy is pretty close to the coal face:
>>> 
>>> https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE
>>> 
 On Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 10:12 AM Dan Penoff via Mercedes <
 mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
 
 
 Thanks, Karl. We appreciate your candor.
 
 Dan
 
 
> On Mar 15, 2020, at 1:07 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes <
> 
 mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
 
> 
> Dan asked me a couple of days ago to comment. This is the draft I had
> sitting in the outbox. It tracks pretty well with what your son is
> 
 saying.
 
> My hospital is preparing for an overload of infectious patients in
> respiratory failure. We have tents up outside the ER to triage patients
> without exposing other patients. We have a few cases in house but the
> tsunami has not really hit here yet. ER docs in Houston and Seattle are
> reporting heavy volume. The feeling it is only a matter of time.
> 
> The CDC bungle on diagnostic testing put us really far behind in putting
> appropriate measures in place to control transmission. One of the biggest
> failures was not immediately adopting the diagnostic tests already being
> used in other countries, in favor of developing our own, which then was
> flawed, and now has reagent shortages.
> 
> The key in South Korea was immediate free testing available on demand. It
> enabled them to rapidly quantify the scale of the problem and implement
> appropriate isolation policies. Here we have had several weeks where each
> public health dept lab could process perhaps 20 samples only. So there
> 
 has
 
> been virtually no community level testing. Docs have patients in ICU
> intubated with CT scans consistent with COVID and even this week it is
> taking 4 days to get a test result from quest after quest started
> processing tests Monday. If hospital docs cannot get patients tested, you
> know no one in the community is getting tested. Meanwhile the virus is
> spreading exponentially because social distancing is not being
> 
 implemented
 
> in a timely manner. We will have more testing available each day and the
> suspicion is we will uncover a large number of cases eventually. The
> severely ill have not hit the hospital in numbers yet because it is early
> and the numbers of infected people are building rapidly but not all of
> 
 the
 
> infected people who will get sick are sick yet. Basically there is no
> reason to suspect this will be any better than Italy, and there are good
> reasons to suspect the disease will spread further before appropriate
> containment measures are taken.
> 
> If it runs its course without intervention, or even with intervention,
> there could be a considerable amount of time during which hospitals may
> 
 be
 
> unable to care for all patients with respiratory failure, no matter the
> cause of the respiratory failure (trauma, heart attacks, strokes etc
> 
 would
 
> all be competing with covid 19 patients for hospital resources). Italy is
> in that situation now and the problem is still getting worse daily. We
> 
 are
 
> not accustomed to having to make tough , 

Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Dwight Giles via Mercedes]

Yes higher than China, & S. Korea

Dwight Giles Jr.
Wickford RI

On Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 10:01 PM Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> What I don’t understand about Italy is why their mortality rate from this
> disease is over 7%. I get how they have an older population but still. Very
> scary.
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> > On Mar 15, 2020, at 8:43 PM, Max Dillon via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> >
> > You're exactly right Curt, Italians are much more affectionate, and
> their idea of personal space is much closer than ours.
> >
> > Max Dillon
> > Charleston SC
> >
> > Mar 15, 2020 8:22:51 PM Curt Raymond via Mercedes  >:
> >
> >> Italy is a very different country from the USA and I find it difficult
> to draw any conclusions on how things will be here based on there. They
> have very little "country" or at least the way we think of it. Even out in
> the hinterlands people are packed into villages and interact with each
> other much more closely than we do here.
> >>
> >> They also touch each other WAY more than we do. When we were there
> last spring people we'd just met were hugging us and kissing our cheeks in
> a way we'd only do for close family or friends here.
> >>
> >> Interesting times anyway...
> >> -Curt
> >>
> >> On Sunday, March 15, 2020, 6:56:07 PM EDT, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> I should say that I/we will be very happy to be proven incorrect, but
> Italy
> >> is up to 1800 deaths from 25000 cases, which is much higher than China's
> >> reported figures.
> >>
> >> This guy is pretty close to the coal face:
> >>
> >> https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE
> >>
> >>> On Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 10:12 AM Dan Penoff via Mercedes <
> >>> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> Thanks, Karl. We appreciate your candor.
> >>>
> >>> Dan
> >>>
> >>>
>  On Mar 15, 2020, at 1:07 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes <
> 
> >>> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> >>>
> 
>  Dan asked me a couple of days ago to comment. This is the draft I had
>  sitting in the outbox. It tracks pretty well with what your son is
> 
> >>> saying.
> >>>
>  My hospital is preparing for an overload of infectious patients in
>  respiratory failure. We have tents up outside the ER to triage
> patients
>  without exposing other patients. We have a few cases in house but the
>  tsunami has not really hit here yet. ER docs in Houston and Seattle
> are
>  reporting heavy volume. The feeling it is only a matter of time.
> 
>  The CDC bungle on diagnostic testing put us really far behind in
> putting
>  appropriate measures in place to control transmission. One of the
> biggest
>  failures was not immediately adopting the diagnostic tests already
> being
>  used in other countries, in favor of developing our own, which then
> was
>  flawed, and now has reagent shortages.
> 
>  The key in South Korea was immediate free testing available on
> demand. It
>  enabled them to rapidly quantify the scale of the problem and
> implement
>  appropriate isolation policies. Here we have had several weeks where
> each
>  public health dept lab could process perhaps 20 samples only. So there
> 
> >>> has
> >>>
>  been virtually no community level testing. Docs have patients in ICU
>  intubated with CT scans consistent with COVID and even this week it is
>  taking 4 days to get a test result from quest after quest started
>  processing tests Monday. If hospital docs cannot get patients tested,
> you
>  know no one in the community is getting tested. Meanwhile the virus is
>  spreading exponentially because social distancing is not being
> 
> >>> implemented
> >>>
>  in a timely manner. We will have more testing available each day and
> the
>  suspicion is we will uncover a large number of cases eventually. The
>  severely ill have not hit the hospital in numbers yet because it is
> early
>  and the numbers of infected people are building rapidly but not all of
> 
> >>> the
> >>>
>  infected people who will get sick are sick yet. Basically there is no
>  reason to suspect this will be any better than Italy, and there are
> good
>  reasons to suspect the disease will spread further before appropriate
>  containment measures are taken.
> 
>  If it runs its course without intervention, or even with intervention,
>  there could be a considerable amount of time during which hospitals
> may
> 
> >>> be
> >>>
>  unable to care for all patients with respiratory failure, no matter
> the
>  cause of the respiratory failure (trauma, heart attacks, strokes etc
> 
> >>> would
> >>>
>  all be competing with covid 19 patients for hospital resources).
> Italy is
>  in that situation now and the problem is still getting worse daily. We
> 
> >>> are
> >>>
>  not accustomed to having to make tough , 

Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes]

What I don’t understand about Italy is why their mortality rate from this 
disease is over 7%. I get how they have an older population but still. Very 
scary.

Sent from my iPhone

> On Mar 15, 2020, at 8:43 PM, Max Dillon via Mercedes  
> wrote:
> 
> You're exactly right Curt, Italians are much more affectionate, and their 
> idea of personal space is much closer than ours.
> 
> Max Dillon
> Charleston SC
> 
> Mar 15, 2020 8:22:51 PM Curt Raymond via Mercedes :
> 
>> Italy is a very different country from the USA and I find it difficult to 
>> draw any conclusions on how things will be here based on there. They have 
>> very little "country" or at least the way we think of it. Even out in the 
>> hinterlands people are packed into villages and interact with each other 
>> much more closely than we do here.
>> 
>> They also touch each other WAY more than we do. When we were there last 
>> spring people we'd just met were hugging us and kissing our cheeks in a way 
>> we'd only do for close family or friends here.
>> 
>> Interesting times anyway...
>> -Curt
>> 
>> On Sunday, March 15, 2020, 6:56:07 PM EDT, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes 
>>  wrote:
>> 
>> I should say that I/we will be very happy to be proven incorrect, but Italy
>> is up to 1800 deaths from 25000 cases, which is much higher than China's
>> reported figures.
>> 
>> This guy is pretty close to the coal face:
>> 
>> https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE
>> 
>>> On Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 10:12 AM Dan Penoff via Mercedes <
>>> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
>>> 
>>> 
>>> Thanks, Karl. We appreciate your candor.
>>> 
>>> Dan
>>> 
>>> 
 On Mar 15, 2020, at 1:07 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes <
 
>>> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
>>> 
 
 Dan asked me a couple of days ago to comment. This is the draft I had
 sitting in the outbox. It tracks pretty well with what your son is
 
>>> saying.
>>> 
 My hospital is preparing for an overload of infectious patients in
 respiratory failure. We have tents up outside the ER to triage patients
 without exposing other patients. We have a few cases in house but the
 tsunami has not really hit here yet. ER docs in Houston and Seattle are
 reporting heavy volume. The feeling it is only a matter of time.
 
 The CDC bungle on diagnostic testing put us really far behind in putting
 appropriate measures in place to control transmission. One of the biggest
 failures was not immediately adopting the diagnostic tests already being
 used in other countries, in favor of developing our own, which then was
 flawed, and now has reagent shortages.
 
 The key in South Korea was immediate free testing available on demand. It
 enabled them to rapidly quantify the scale of the problem and implement
 appropriate isolation policies. Here we have had several weeks where each
 public health dept lab could process perhaps 20 samples only. So there
 
>>> has
>>> 
 been virtually no community level testing. Docs have patients in ICU
 intubated with CT scans consistent with COVID and even this week it is
 taking 4 days to get a test result from quest after quest started
 processing tests Monday. If hospital docs cannot get patients tested, you
 know no one in the community is getting tested. Meanwhile the virus is
 spreading exponentially because social distancing is not being
 
>>> implemented
>>> 
 in a timely manner. We will have more testing available each day and the
 suspicion is we will uncover a large number of cases eventually. The
 severely ill have not hit the hospital in numbers yet because it is early
 and the numbers of infected people are building rapidly but not all of
 
>>> the
>>> 
 infected people who will get sick are sick yet. Basically there is no
 reason to suspect this will be any better than Italy, and there are good
 reasons to suspect the disease will spread further before appropriate
 containment measures are taken.
 
 If it runs its course without intervention, or even with intervention,
 there could be a considerable amount of time during which hospitals may
 
>>> be
>>> 
 unable to care for all patients with respiratory failure, no matter the
 cause of the respiratory failure (trauma, heart attacks, strokes etc
 
>>> would
>>> 
 all be competing with covid 19 patients for hospital resources). Italy is
 in that situation now and the problem is still getting worse daily. We
 
>>> are
>>> 
 not accustomed to having to make tough , resource constrained decisions
 about which patient to save. Of course 80% of patients will be able to
 
>>> ride
>>> 
 it out without hospitalization, but that isnt setting a very high bar by
 any modern healthcare standard.
 
 Comparing annualized incidence numbers of influenza fatalities to a novel
 disease with an epidemic in its infancy is obviously not meaningful 

Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Max Dillon via Mercedes]

You're exactly right Curt, Italians are much more affectionate, and their idea 
of personal space is much closer than ours.

Max Dillon
Charleston SC

Mar 15, 2020 8:22:51 PM Curt Raymond via Mercedes :

> Italy is a very different country from the USA and I find it difficult to 
> draw any conclusions on how things will be here based on there. They have 
> very little "country" or at least the way we think of it. Even out in the 
> hinterlands people are packed into villages and interact with each other much 
> more closely than we do here.
> 
> They also touch each other WAY more than we do. When we were there last 
> spring people we'd just met were hugging us and kissing our cheeks in a way 
> we'd only do for close family or friends here.
> 
> Interesting times anyway...
> -Curt
> 
> On Sunday, March 15, 2020, 6:56:07 PM EDT, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> I should say that I/we will be very happy to be proven incorrect, but Italy
> is up to 1800 deaths from 25000 cases, which is much higher than China's
> reported figures.
> 
> This guy is pretty close to the coal face:
> 
> https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE
> 
> On Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 10:12 AM Dan Penoff via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> 
> 
> > Thanks, Karl. We appreciate your candor.
> > 
> > Dan
> > 
> > 
> > > On Mar 15, 2020, at 1:07 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes <
> > > 
> > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> > 
> > > 
> > > Dan asked me a couple of days ago to comment. This is the draft I had
> > > sitting in the outbox. It tracks pretty well with what your son is
> > > 
> > saying.
> > 
> > > My hospital is preparing for an overload of infectious patients in
> > > respiratory failure. We have tents up outside the ER to triage patients
> > > without exposing other patients. We have a few cases in house but the
> > > tsunami has not really hit here yet. ER docs in Houston and Seattle are
> > > reporting heavy volume. The feeling it is only a matter of time.
> > > 
> > > The CDC bungle on diagnostic testing put us really far behind in putting
> > > appropriate measures in place to control transmission. One of the biggest
> > > failures was not immediately adopting the diagnostic tests already being
> > > used in other countries, in favor of developing our own, which then was
> > > flawed, and now has reagent shortages.
> > > 
> > > The key in South Korea was immediate free testing available on demand. It
> > > enabled them to rapidly quantify the scale of the problem and implement
> > > appropriate isolation policies. Here we have had several weeks where each
> > > public health dept lab could process perhaps 20 samples only. So there
> > > 
> > has
> > 
> > > been virtually no community level testing. Docs have patients in ICU
> > > intubated with CT scans consistent with COVID and even this week it is
> > > taking 4 days to get a test result from quest after quest started
> > > processing tests Monday. If hospital docs cannot get patients tested, you
> > > know no one in the community is getting tested. Meanwhile the virus is
> > > spreading exponentially because social distancing is not being
> > > 
> > implemented
> > 
> > > in a timely manner. We will have more testing available each day and the
> > > suspicion is we will uncover a large number of cases eventually. The
> > > severely ill have not hit the hospital in numbers yet because it is early
> > > and the numbers of infected people are building rapidly but not all of
> > > 
> > the
> > 
> > > infected people who will get sick are sick yet. Basically there is no
> > > reason to suspect this will be any better than Italy, and there are good
> > > reasons to suspect the disease will spread further before appropriate
> > > containment measures are taken.
> > > 
> > > If it runs its course without intervention, or even with intervention,
> > > there could be a considerable amount of time during which hospitals may
> > > 
> > be
> > 
> > > unable to care for all patients with respiratory failure, no matter the
> > > cause of the respiratory failure (trauma, heart attacks, strokes etc
> > > 
> > would
> > 
> > > all be competing with covid 19 patients for hospital resources). Italy is
> > > in that situation now and the problem is still getting worse daily. We
> > > 
> > are
> > 
> > > not accustomed to having to make tough , resource constrained decisions
> > > about which patient to save. Of course 80% of patients will be able to
> > > 
> > ride
> > 
> > > it out without hospitalization, but that isnt setting a very high bar by
> > > any modern healthcare standard.
> > > 
> > > Comparing annualized incidence numbers of influenza fatalities to a novel
> > > disease with an epidemic in its infancy is obviously not meaningful due
> > > 
> > to
> > 
> > > the fact that this is only weeks old and good prevalence/incidence data
> > > 
> > for
> > 
> > > covid 19 is simply lacking in the general population. We do know that it
> > > can put enough people into respiratory 

Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Curt Raymond via Mercedes]

 I'm not allowing myself to give in and go to the shops repeatedly. We have 
"enough" in fact in some stuff we've probably got too much, Angie spent some 
time cleaning out stuff we don't eat recently.
Its easy to say "I'll just get a little more" and make yourself crazy...
-Curt

On Sunday, March 15, 2020, 8:19:39 PM EDT, Dan Penoff via Mercedes 
 wrote:  
 
 I’m giving some serious thought to going out early tomorrow morning and 
swinging by our local farmer’s market that opens at 4:30 am to see what’s there.

They have a massive cold section with tons of fresh and frozen meat. I’m 
wondering what they have, and if there are any shortages. These are the same 
guys that supply many of the local restaurants, too.

Hmm. May have to turn in shortly.

-D


  
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Curt Raymond via Mercedes]

 Italy is a very different country from the USA and I find it difficult to draw 
any conclusions on how things will be here based on there. They have very 
little "country" or at least the way we think of it. Even out in the 
hinterlands people are packed into villages and interact with each other much 
more closely than we do here. 

They also touch each other WAY more than we do. When we were there last 
spring people we'd just met were hugging us and kissing our cheeks in a way 
we'd only do for close family or friends here. 

Interesting times anyway...
-Curt

On Sunday, March 15, 2020, 6:56:07 PM EDT, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes 
 wrote:  
 
 I should say that I/we will be very happy to be proven incorrect, but Italy
is up to 1800 deaths from 25000 cases, which is much higher than China's
reported figures.

This guy is pretty close to the coal face:

https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE

On Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 10:12 AM Dan Penoff via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> Thanks, Karl. We appreciate your candor.
>
> Dan
>
> > On Mar 15, 2020, at 1:07 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> >
> > Dan asked me a couple of days ago to comment. This is the draft I had
> > sitting in the outbox. It tracks pretty well with what your son is
> saying.
> > My hospital is preparing for an overload of infectious patients in
> > respiratory failure. We have tents up outside the ER to triage patients
> > without exposing other patients. We have a few cases in house but the
> > tsunami has not really hit here yet. ER docs in Houston and Seattle are
> > reporting heavy volume. The feeling it is only a matter of time.
> >
> > The CDC bungle on diagnostic testing put us really far behind in putting
> > appropriate measures in place to control transmission. One of the biggest
> > failures was not immediately adopting the diagnostic tests already being
> > used in other countries, in favor of developing our own, which then was
> > flawed, and now has reagent shortages.
> >
> > The key in South Korea was immediate free testing available on demand. It
> > enabled them to rapidly quantify the scale of the problem and implement
> > appropriate isolation policies. Here we have had several weeks where each
> > public health dept lab could process perhaps 20 samples only. So there
> has
> > been virtually no community level testing. Docs have patients in ICU
> > intubated with CT scans consistent with COVID and even this week it is
> > taking 4 days to get a test result from quest after quest started
> > processing tests Monday. If hospital docs cannot get patients tested, you
> > know no one in the community is getting tested. Meanwhile the virus is
> > spreading exponentially because social distancing is not being
> implemented
> > in a timely manner. We will have more testing available each day and the
> > suspicion is we will uncover a large number of cases eventually. The
> > severely ill have not hit the hospital in numbers yet because it is early
> > and the numbers of infected people are building rapidly but not all of
> the
> > infected people who will get sick are sick yet. Basically there is no
> > reason to suspect this will be any better than Italy, and there are good
> > reasons to suspect the disease will spread further before appropriate
> > containment measures are taken.
> >
> > If it runs its course without intervention, or even with intervention,
> > there could be a considerable amount of time during which hospitals may
> be
> > unable to care for all patients with respiratory failure, no matter the
> > cause of the respiratory failure (trauma, heart attacks, strokes etc
> would
> > all be competing with covid 19 patients for hospital resources). Italy is
> > in that situation now and the problem is still getting worse daily. We
> are
> > not accustomed to having to make tough , resource constrained decisions
> > about which patient to save. Of course 80% of patients will be able to
> ride
> > it out without hospitalization, but that isnt setting a very high bar by
> > any modern healthcare standard.
> >
> > Comparing annualized incidence numbers of influenza fatalities to a novel
> > disease with an epidemic in its infancy is obviously not meaningful due
> to
> > the fact that this is only weeks old and good prevalence/incidence data
> for
> > covid 19 is simply lacking in the general population. We do know that it
> > can put enough people into respiratory failure rapidly enough to overload
> > the hospital system of a fairly advanced industrial democracy. How big a
> > problem that is depends upon whether you or your loved one are a patient
> or
> > not, and how many people have friends or family members who end up being
> > hospitalized or dying during this epidemic, for any reason. Your
> likelihood
> > of being in that group depends in part upon how long the system remains
> in
> > a resource constrained mode of operation, and upon how large the mismatch
> > is. The 

Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Dan Penoff via Mercedes]

I’m giving some serious thought to going out early tomorrow morning and 
swinging by our local farmer’s market that opens at 4:30 am to see what’s there.

They have a massive cold section with tons of fresh and frozen meat. I’m 
wondering what they have, and if there are any shortages. These are the same 
guys that supply many of the local restaurants, too.

Hmm. May have to turn in shortly.

-D

> On Mar 15, 2020, at 8:13 PM, Curt Raymond  wrote:
> 
> Which reminds me, we went to the food Co-op in Keene, NH last night. No 
> shortages of anything that I could see although I did forget to check on TP. 
> We did buy the only can of whipped cream but I think that was a "we're too 
> good for canned whip cream" thing. Not many people in there and the streets 
> of Keene were dead which is unsurprising in a college town where the college 
> is shut.
> Peeked at the grocery store this morning after breakfast, it was packed at 
> 9am, we just headed on by.
> 
> Next weekend is the "sausage party" where we turn last fall's accumulated 
> venison bits into sausage. The guys are already griping about "shortages". 
> They won't like what it costs to buy at the co-op but stuff is available...
> 
> -Curt
> 
> On Sunday, March 15, 2020, 9:06:45 AM EDT, Dan Penoff via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> 
> I’m like a lot of the group, barely on the fringe of the high risk tier. I 
> walk 2-3 miles daily at least and do a fair amount of physical activity, get 
> plenty of sleep and take 1000mg of C daily. I could eat better, but I think I 
> do fairly well in that area. I’m not concerned about myself at this point, 
> but I am concerned about others around me…
> 
> The neighborhood had a big gathering yesterday that went well into the 
> evening. I stayed away, but the wife, who is a social butterfly, was there 
> almost the whole time. I’m still trying to understand the logic behind food 
> anxiety one day and the inability to avoid crowds as directed by the CDC the 
> next. I’m not bringing up the topics unless they come up, as I’m sure it will 
> end poorly…
> 
> -D who just finished hauling and spreading 10 - 4 CF bags of cypress mulch 
> around the yard. And it’s only 9:00 am! Plenty of time for more fun!
> 
> > On Mar 15, 2020, at 2:00 AM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes 
> > mailto:mercedes@okiebenz.com>> wrote:
> > 
> > Andrew sez:
> > 
> >> since I am in the vulnerable age
> > 
> > I would suspect that you are in quite good aerobic health, Andrew. Racket 
> > ball would seem to be a good sport for athletic conditioning. 
> > 
> > Rick
> > ___
> > http://www.okiebenz.com 
> > 
> > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ 
> > 
> > 
> > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com 
> > 
> 
> > 
> 
> 
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com 
> 
> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ 
> 
> 
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com 
> 
> 

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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Dan Penoff via Mercedes]

Yikes. I like cats, but I only have one, and she’s 16 years old. A rescue the 
wife picked up on the side of the road in a thunderstorm. Weighed .8 lbs. when 
she was rescued, vet said she’d be unlikely to live more than a day or two.

16 years later, she’s still here. Feisty yet lovable. Used to give the other 
three purebred (Chartreux) cats we had pure hell as well as the wife’s former 
Shitzu. Definitely a cat raised on the streets, outlived the others and 
probably has another good 3-6 years.

-D

> On Mar 15, 2020, at 8:06 PM, Scott Ritchey via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> Unfortunately, I have no problem reaching the free shipping threshold.  I 
> have 5 house cats plus 12 rescues that live outside and in the "barn" (where 
> I have the mini split heat pump).
> 
>> -Original Message-
>> From: Mercedes [mailto:mercedes-boun...@okiebenz.com] On Behalf Of Dan
>> Penoff via Mercedes
>> Sent: Sunday, March 15, 2020 6:57 PM
>> To: Okie Benz 
>> Cc: Dan Penoff 
>> Subject: Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real
>> 
>> I didn’t find them to be competitive for cat related stuff, at least not by 
>> the
>> time I added in shipping. If I ordered enough to hit the free shipping nut I
>> would have been laying in six months of supplies.
>> 
>> -D
>> 
>>> On Mar 15, 2020, at 3:01 PM, Scott Ritchey via Mercedes
>>  wrote:
>>> 
>>> I've been ordering most pet supplies from Chewy (thanks for tip Andrew).  I
>> just checked on my next subscribed order (regular scheduled monthly
>> deliveries) and it showed delayed "out of stock."  So I ordered several 
>> cases of
>> other food that were "in stock."  Within hours I got an email saying to 
>> expect a
>> 3-5 day delay.  Chewy ALWAYS delivered in two days before this.  Not sure
>> what this means but glad I keep a couple weeks of critter food in reserve.
>>> 
>>> -Original Message-
>>> From:  Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes
>>> 
>>> Cat litter is scarce around here.
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> ___
>>> http://www.okiebenz.com
>>> 
>>> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
>>> 
>>> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
>>> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
>>> 
>> 
>> 
>> ___
>> http://www.okiebenz.com
>> 
>> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
>> 
>> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
>> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
> 
> 
> 
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
> 
> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
> 
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
> 


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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Curt Raymond via Mercedes]

 Which reminds me, we went to the food Co-op in Keene, NH last night. No 
shortages of anything that I could see although I did forget to check on TP. We 
did buy the only can of whipped cream but I think that was a "we're too good 
for canned whip cream" thing. Not many people in there and the streets of Keene 
were dead which is unsurprising in a college town where the college is 
shut.Peeked at the grocery store this morning after breakfast, it was packed at 
9am, we just headed on by.
Next weekend is the "sausage party" where we turn last fall's accumulated 
venison bits into sausage. The guys are already griping about "shortages". They 
won't like what it costs to buy at the co-op but stuff is available...

-Curt

On Sunday, March 15, 2020, 9:06:45 AM EDT, Dan Penoff via Mercedes 
 wrote:  
 
 I’m like a lot of the group, barely on the fringe of the high risk tier. I 
walk 2-3 miles daily at least and do a fair amount of physical activity, get 
plenty of sleep and take 1000mg of C daily. I could eat better, but I think I 
do fairly well in that area. I’m not concerned about myself at this point, but 
I am concerned about others around me…

The neighborhood had a big gathering yesterday that went well into the evening. 
I stayed away, but the wife, who is a social butterfly, was there almost the 
whole time. I’m still trying to understand the logic behind food anxiety one 
day and the inability to avoid crowds as directed by the CDC the next. I’m not 
bringing up the topics unless they come up, as I’m sure it will end poorly…

-D who just finished hauling and spreading 10 - 4 CF bags of cypress mulch 
around the yard. And it’s only 9:00 am! Plenty of time for more fun!

> On Mar 15, 2020, at 2:00 AM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes  
> wrote:
> 
> Andrew sez:
> 
>> since I am in the vulnerable age
> 
> I would suspect that you are in quite good aerobic health, Andrew. Racket 
> ball would seem to be a good sport for athletic conditioning. 
> 
> Rick
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
> 
> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
> 
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
> 


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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Curt Raymond via Mercedes]

 It is worth noting that the large majority of people infected have little to 
no problem at all. Symptoms reported are mostly a dry cough and they recover 
quickly.
Reported infection rates will of course rise as testing is done, there are 
probably lots of folks walking around "sick" that don't really know about it.
I think I'm in the minority here being fairly young but I'm really not worried. 
We neglected to go play cards with Angie's grandmother tonight to limit her 
exposure to us, not the other way around.
I'm thinking tomorrow if the weather is nice I might go try to shoot some 
crows. Going shooting on Mondays seems like a nice diversion.
I also have to help Angie work out how to give online tai-chi classes. She 
teaches at a cancer treatment center and, as most of those folks are immuno 
compromised they want to limit contact. She was just going to wing it, but as 
I've got some experience with online classes I suggested we at least try it her 
way first. Then I offered extra lights and a microphone. We'll see...

-Curt

On Saturday, March 14, 2020, 10:21:26 PM EDT, Dwight Giles via Mercedes 
 wrote:  
 
 Floyd,
You raised  a good Dr boy. I think his,advice squares with the best
research & policy i have read. Tinker one of those $500 MB's in the interim.

Dwight Giles Jr.
Wickford RI

On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 10:07 PM Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> I am not one to get too exercised about this Covid thing but that might
> have changed.
>
> Dr. Boy (Villanova, Georgetown University School of Medicine, Brown U
> resident Internal Medicine, currently Stanford U Fellow in Pulmonary
> Critical Care) called me a little while ago to check in on my situation. He
> is pretty low key but no bullsh*t. Tells it straight. And he’s pretty smart
> if I do say so...
>
> They have several covid patients at the hospital now. They are preparing
> for an onslaught of more patients the next week or two. Turning ORs and
> other spaces into ICUs right now.  The expectation is that his hospital, as
> well as every other hospital, will be completely overwhelmed before long.
>
> Apparently this is now happening in Italy and is rolling into other EU
> countries though that has not been widely reported. It’s bad. No one
> believes what China are reporting though their draconian measures to
> contain the contagion *might* have helped lower the fatalities. The view is
> that it is really bad there and will likely be so in other places.
>
> The limiting factor will be ventilators to deal with respiratory failure
> or compromise. If (and this could be a big if) you get to the hospital, and
> if they have room, and there are no ventilators and you need one you will
> be SOL. Reality as there is a limited supply of these things and it is not
> large.
>
> He strongly suggested, even though I am quite healthy, that I severely
> limit my interaction with the world.  Even being healthy the chances of
> catching this and having adverse effects are not trivial given the expected
> infection rate and effects.  I am situated as to where that would not be
> too difficult to do, save some occasional trips to the grocery and Lowe’s
> and such. I’m working on my house, getting it ready to sell, so can just
> focus on that rather than social intercourse.
>
> I am digesting this but strongly considering revising my view on all this
> given I absolutely trust the boy, and this is the first time he has been
> this serious about something.
>
> As always, YMMV...
>
> --FT
> Sent from iPhone
> ___
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>
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>
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>
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Scott Ritchey via Mercedes]

Unfortunately, I have no problem reaching the free shipping threshold.  I have 
5 house cats plus 12 rescues that live outside and in the "barn" (where I have 
the mini split heat pump).

> -Original Message-
> From: Mercedes [mailto:mercedes-boun...@okiebenz.com] On Behalf Of Dan
> Penoff via Mercedes
> Sent: Sunday, March 15, 2020 6:57 PM
> To: Okie Benz 
> Cc: Dan Penoff 
> Subject: Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real
> 
> I didn’t find them to be competitive for cat related stuff, at least not by 
> the
> time I added in shipping. If I ordered enough to hit the free shipping nut I
> would have been laying in six months of supplies.
> 
> -D
> 
> > On Mar 15, 2020, at 3:01 PM, Scott Ritchey via Mercedes
>  wrote:
> >
> > I've been ordering most pet supplies from Chewy (thanks for tip Andrew).  I
> just checked on my next subscribed order (regular scheduled monthly
> deliveries) and it showed delayed "out of stock."  So I ordered several cases 
> of
> other food that were "in stock."  Within hours I got an email saying to 
> expect a
> 3-5 day delay.  Chewy ALWAYS delivered in two days before this.  Not sure
> what this means but glad I keep a couple weeks of critter food in reserve.
> >
> > -Original Message-
> > From:  Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes
> >
> > Cat litter is scarce around here.
> >
> >
> >
> > ___
> > http://www.okiebenz.com
> >
> > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/
> >
> > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
> >
> 
> 
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
> 
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> 
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Floyd Thursby via Mercedes]

The boy says this is worth a listen.  this one is a coupla days old, 
there is a newer one he says.  This doc is a former Stanford surgeon, 
all business no bullshit


https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-attia-drive/id1400828889?i=1000468407666

the boy agrees on the Italy situation, and what is developing elsewhere.

-_FT

On 3/15/20 6:55 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes wrote:

I should say that I/we will be very happy to be proven incorrect, but Italy
is up to 1800 deaths from 25000 cases, which is much higher than China's
reported figures.

This guy is pretty close to the coal face:

https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE


--
--FT


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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Dan Penoff via Mercedes]

I didn’t find them to be competitive for cat related stuff, at least not by the 
time I added in shipping. If I ordered enough to hit the free shipping nut I 
would have been laying in six months of supplies.

-D

> On Mar 15, 2020, at 3:01 PM, Scott Ritchey via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> I've been ordering most pet supplies from Chewy (thanks for tip Andrew).  I 
> just checked on my next subscribed order (regular scheduled monthly 
> deliveries) and it showed delayed "out of stock."  So I ordered several cases 
> of other food that were "in stock."  Within hours I got an email saying to 
> expect a 3-5 day delay.  Chewy ALWAYS delivered in two days before this.  Not 
> sure what this means but glad I keep a couple weeks of critter food in 
> reserve.
> 
> -Original Message-
> From:  Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes
> 
> Cat litter is scarce around here.
> 
> 
> 
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> 
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> 
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes]

I should say that I/we will be very happy to be proven incorrect, but Italy
is up to 1800 deaths from 25000 cases, which is much higher than China's
reported figures.

This guy is pretty close to the coal face:

https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE

On Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 10:12 AM Dan Penoff via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> Thanks, Karl. We appreciate your candor.
>
> Dan
>
> > On Mar 15, 2020, at 1:07 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> >
> > Dan asked me a couple of days ago to comment. This is the draft I had
> > sitting in the outbox. It tracks pretty well with what your son is
> saying.
> > My hospital is preparing for an overload of infectious patients in
> > respiratory failure. We have tents up outside the ER to triage patients
> > without exposing other patients. We have a few cases in house but the
> > tsunami has not really hit here yet. ER docs in Houston and Seattle are
> > reporting heavy volume. The feeling it is only a matter of time.
> >
> > The CDC bungle on diagnostic testing put us really far behind in putting
> > appropriate measures in place to control transmission. One of the biggest
> > failures was not immediately adopting the diagnostic tests already being
> > used in other countries, in favor of developing our own, which then was
> > flawed, and now has reagent shortages.
> >
> > The key in South Korea was immediate free testing available on demand. It
> > enabled them to rapidly quantify the scale of the problem and implement
> > appropriate isolation policies. Here we have had several weeks where each
> > public health dept lab could process perhaps 20 samples only. So there
> has
> > been virtually no community level testing. Docs have patients in ICU
> > intubated with CT scans consistent with COVID and even this week it is
> > taking 4 days to get a test result from quest after quest started
> > processing tests Monday. If hospital docs cannot get patients tested, you
> > know no one in the community is getting tested. Meanwhile the virus is
> > spreading exponentially because social distancing is not being
> implemented
> > in a timely manner. We will have more testing available each day and the
> > suspicion is we will uncover a large number of cases eventually. The
> > severely ill have not hit the hospital in numbers yet because it is early
> > and the numbers of infected people are building rapidly but not all of
> the
> > infected people who will get sick are sick yet. Basically there is no
> > reason to suspect this will be any better than Italy, and there are good
> > reasons to suspect the disease will spread further before appropriate
> > containment measures are taken.
> >
> > If it runs its course without intervention, or even with intervention,
> > there could be a considerable amount of time during which hospitals may
> be
> > unable to care for all patients with respiratory failure, no matter the
> > cause of the respiratory failure (trauma, heart attacks, strokes etc
> would
> > all be competing with covid 19 patients for hospital resources). Italy is
> > in that situation now and the problem is still getting worse daily. We
> are
> > not accustomed to having to make tough , resource constrained decisions
> > about which patient to save. Of course 80% of patients will be able to
> ride
> > it out without hospitalization, but that isnt setting a very high bar by
> > any modern healthcare standard.
> >
> > Comparing annualized incidence numbers of influenza fatalities to a novel
> > disease with an epidemic in its infancy is obviously not meaningful due
> to
> > the fact that this is only weeks old and good prevalence/incidence data
> for
> > covid 19 is simply lacking in the general population. We do know that it
> > can put enough people into respiratory failure rapidly enough to overload
> > the hospital system of a fairly advanced industrial democracy. How big a
> > problem that is depends upon whether you or your loved one are a patient
> or
> > not, and how many people have friends or family members who end up being
> > hospitalized or dying during this epidemic, for any reason. Your
> likelihood
> > of being in that group depends in part upon how long the system remains
> in
> > a resource constrained mode of operation, and upon how large the mismatch
> > is. The mismatch between available resources and sick patients on any
> given
> > day depends in large part upon the incidence (new cases per day), which
> is
> > most effectively limited through early control of transmission.  People
> in
> > respiratory failure die fairly quickly, and it would be particularly
> tragic
> > to lose a large number of people due to critical care bed shortages when
> > many patients seem to be able to recover from it given proper supportive
> > measures. Social distancing is going to be a key part of limiting the
> > spread, because there are many cases with mild symptoms who still shed
> the
> > virus. Isolating very sick people is 

Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Scott Ritchey via Mercedes]

I've been ordering most pet supplies from Chewy (thanks for tip Andrew).  I 
just checked on my next subscribed order (regular scheduled monthly deliveries) 
and it showed delayed "out of stock."  So I ordered several cases of other food 
that were "in stock."  Within hours I got an email saying to expect a 3-5 day 
delay.  Chewy ALWAYS delivered in two days before this.  Not sure what this 
means but glad I keep a couple weeks of critter food in reserve.

-Original Message-
From:  Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes

Cat litter is scarce around here.



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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes]

Cat litter is scarce around here.

On Sun, Mar 15, 2020 at 1:37 PM Dan Penoff via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> I went to the World of Wally this morning much later than I usually do -
> around 7:30 am (I usually go around 5:30-6:00 am).
>
> It was packed for that hour on a Sunday.
>
> I wanted to stock up on some vitamin C, despite having a week or two left,
> and get some kitty food.
>
> NO vitamin C. The vitamin and supplement aisle was destroyed, shelves were
> empty. ???
>
> Kitty food was plentiful, so at least we can keep the cat well fed until
> we’re forced to eat her.
>
> -D
>
> > On Mar 15, 2020, at 1:20 PM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> >
> > yep, basically what the boy was saying with more detail.  I think I am
> just going to hunker in the bunker best I can, got plenty of food to
> minimize my need to go out (though I did go to the grocery store this
> morning for a few random things, it was quite busy, I think turistas and
> spring break time, oh boy...  well stocked except for pasta and rice, I did
> not check TP...)
> >
> > Stay well y'all...
> >
> > --FT
> >
>
>
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>
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>
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>
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Dan Penoff via Mercedes]

I went to the World of Wally this morning much later than I usually do - around 
7:30 am (I usually go around 5:30-6:00 am).

It was packed for that hour on a Sunday.

I wanted to stock up on some vitamin C, despite having a week or two left, and 
get some kitty food.

NO vitamin C. The vitamin and supplement aisle was destroyed, shelves were 
empty. ???

Kitty food was plentiful, so at least we can keep the cat well fed until we’re 
forced to eat her.

-D

> On Mar 15, 2020, at 1:20 PM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> yep, basically what the boy was saying with more detail.  I think I am just 
> going to hunker in the bunker best I can, got plenty of food to minimize my 
> need to go out (though I did go to the grocery store this morning for a few 
> random things, it was quite busy, I think turistas and spring break time, oh 
> boy...  well stocked except for pasta and rice, I did not check TP...)
> 
> Stay well y'all...
> 
> --FT
> 


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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Floyd Thursby via Mercedes]

yep, basically what the boy was saying with more detail.  I think I am 
just going to hunker in the bunker best I can, got plenty of food to 
minimize my need to go out (though I did go to the grocery store this 
morning for a few random things, it was quite busy, I think turistas and 
spring break time, oh boy...  well stocked except for pasta and rice, I 
did not check TP...)


Stay well y'all...

--FT

On 3/15/20 1:07 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes wrote:

Dan asked me a couple of days ago to comment. This is the draft I had
sitting in the outbox. It tracks pretty well with what your son is saying.
My hospital is preparing for an overload of infectious patients in
respiratory failure. We have tents up outside the ER to triage patients
without exposing other patients. We have a few cases in house but the
tsunami has not really hit here yet. ER docs in Houston and Seattle are
reporting heavy volume. The feeling it is only a matter of time.

The CDC bungle on diagnostic testing put us really far behind in putting
appropriate measures in place to control transmission. One of the biggest
failures was not immediately adopting the diagnostic tests already being
used in other countries, in favor of developing our own, which then was
flawed, and now has reagent shortages.

The key in South Korea was immediate free testing available on demand. It
enabled them to rapidly quantify the scale of the problem and implement
appropriate isolation policies. Here we have had several weeks where each
public health dept lab could process perhaps 20 samples only. So there has
been virtually no community level testing. Docs have patients in ICU
intubated with CT scans consistent with COVID and even this week it is
taking 4 days to get a test result from quest after quest started
processing tests Monday. If hospital docs cannot get patients tested, you
know no one in the community is getting tested. Meanwhile the virus is
spreading exponentially because social distancing is not being implemented
in a timely manner. We will have more testing available each day and the
suspicion is we will uncover a large number of cases eventually. The
severely ill have not hit the hospital in numbers yet because it is early
and the numbers of infected people are building rapidly but not all of the
infected people who will get sick are sick yet. Basically there is no
reason to suspect this will be any better than Italy, and there are good
reasons to suspect the disease will spread further before appropriate
containment measures are taken.

If it runs its course without intervention, or even with intervention,
there could be a considerable amount of time during which hospitals may be
unable to care for all patients with respiratory failure, no matter the
cause of the respiratory failure (trauma, heart attacks, strokes etc would
all be competing with covid 19 patients for hospital resources). Italy is
in that situation now and the problem is still getting worse daily. We are
not accustomed to having to make tough , resource constrained decisions
about which patient to save. Of course 80% of patients will be able to ride
it out without hospitalization, but that isnt setting a very high bar by
any modern healthcare standard.

Comparing annualized incidence numbers of influenza fatalities to a novel
disease with an epidemic in its infancy is obviously not meaningful due to
the fact that this is only weeks old and good prevalence/incidence data for
covid 19 is simply lacking in the general population. We do know that it
can put enough people into respiratory failure rapidly enough to overload
the hospital system of a fairly advanced industrial democracy. How big a
problem that is depends upon whether you or your loved one are a patient or
not, and how many people have friends or family members who end up being
hospitalized or dying during this epidemic, for any reason. Your likelihood
of being in that group depends in part upon how long the system remains in
a resource constrained mode of operation, and upon how large the mismatch
is. The mismatch between available resources and sick patients on any given
day depends in large part upon the incidence (new cases per day), which is
most effectively limited through early control of transmission.  People in
respiratory failure die fairly quickly, and it would be particularly tragic
to lose a large number of people due to critical care bed shortages when
many patients seem to be able to recover from it given proper supportive
measures. Social distancing is going to be a key part of limiting the
spread, because there are many cases with mild symptoms who still shed the
virus. Isolating very sick people is not enough.

Karl

On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:07 PM Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:


I am not one to get too exercised about this Covid thing but that might
have changed.

Dr. Boy (Villanova, Georgetown University School of Medicine, Brown U
resident Internal Medicine, 

Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Dan Penoff via Mercedes]

Thanks, Karl. We appreciate your candor.

Dan

> On Mar 15, 2020, at 1:07 PM, Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> Dan asked me a couple of days ago to comment. This is the draft I had
> sitting in the outbox. It tracks pretty well with what your son is saying.
> My hospital is preparing for an overload of infectious patients in
> respiratory failure. We have tents up outside the ER to triage patients
> without exposing other patients. We have a few cases in house but the
> tsunami has not really hit here yet. ER docs in Houston and Seattle are
> reporting heavy volume. The feeling it is only a matter of time.
> 
> The CDC bungle on diagnostic testing put us really far behind in putting
> appropriate measures in place to control transmission. One of the biggest
> failures was not immediately adopting the diagnostic tests already being
> used in other countries, in favor of developing our own, which then was
> flawed, and now has reagent shortages.
> 
> The key in South Korea was immediate free testing available on demand. It
> enabled them to rapidly quantify the scale of the problem and implement
> appropriate isolation policies. Here we have had several weeks where each
> public health dept lab could process perhaps 20 samples only. So there has
> been virtually no community level testing. Docs have patients in ICU
> intubated with CT scans consistent with COVID and even this week it is
> taking 4 days to get a test result from quest after quest started
> processing tests Monday. If hospital docs cannot get patients tested, you
> know no one in the community is getting tested. Meanwhile the virus is
> spreading exponentially because social distancing is not being implemented
> in a timely manner. We will have more testing available each day and the
> suspicion is we will uncover a large number of cases eventually. The
> severely ill have not hit the hospital in numbers yet because it is early
> and the numbers of infected people are building rapidly but not all of the
> infected people who will get sick are sick yet. Basically there is no
> reason to suspect this will be any better than Italy, and there are good
> reasons to suspect the disease will spread further before appropriate
> containment measures are taken.
> 
> If it runs its course without intervention, or even with intervention,
> there could be a considerable amount of time during which hospitals may be
> unable to care for all patients with respiratory failure, no matter the
> cause of the respiratory failure (trauma, heart attacks, strokes etc would
> all be competing with covid 19 patients for hospital resources). Italy is
> in that situation now and the problem is still getting worse daily. We are
> not accustomed to having to make tough , resource constrained decisions
> about which patient to save. Of course 80% of patients will be able to ride
> it out without hospitalization, but that isnt setting a very high bar by
> any modern healthcare standard.
> 
> Comparing annualized incidence numbers of influenza fatalities to a novel
> disease with an epidemic in its infancy is obviously not meaningful due to
> the fact that this is only weeks old and good prevalence/incidence data for
> covid 19 is simply lacking in the general population. We do know that it
> can put enough people into respiratory failure rapidly enough to overload
> the hospital system of a fairly advanced industrial democracy. How big a
> problem that is depends upon whether you or your loved one are a patient or
> not, and how many people have friends or family members who end up being
> hospitalized or dying during this epidemic, for any reason. Your likelihood
> of being in that group depends in part upon how long the system remains in
> a resource constrained mode of operation, and upon how large the mismatch
> is. The mismatch between available resources and sick patients on any given
> day depends in large part upon the incidence (new cases per day), which is
> most effectively limited through early control of transmission.  People in
> respiratory failure die fairly quickly, and it would be particularly tragic
> to lose a large number of people due to critical care bed shortages when
> many patients seem to be able to recover from it given proper supportive
> measures. Social distancing is going to be a key part of limiting the
> spread, because there are many cases with mild symptoms who still shed the
> virus. Isolating very sick people is not enough.
> 
> Karl
> 
> On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:07 PM Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> 
>> I am not one to get too exercised about this Covid thing but that might
>> have changed.
>> 
>> Dr. Boy (Villanova, Georgetown University School of Medicine, Brown U
>> resident Internal Medicine, currently Stanford U Fellow in Pulmonary
>> Critical Care) called me a little while ago to check in on my situation. He
>> is pretty low key but no bullsh*t. Tells it straight. And he’s pretty smart

Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes]

Dan asked me a couple of days ago to comment. This is the draft I had
sitting in the outbox. It tracks pretty well with what your son is saying.
My hospital is preparing for an overload of infectious patients in
respiratory failure. We have tents up outside the ER to triage patients
without exposing other patients. We have a few cases in house but the
tsunami has not really hit here yet. ER docs in Houston and Seattle are
reporting heavy volume. The feeling it is only a matter of time.

The CDC bungle on diagnostic testing put us really far behind in putting
appropriate measures in place to control transmission. One of the biggest
failures was not immediately adopting the diagnostic tests already being
used in other countries, in favor of developing our own, which then was
flawed, and now has reagent shortages.

The key in South Korea was immediate free testing available on demand. It
enabled them to rapidly quantify the scale of the problem and implement
appropriate isolation policies. Here we have had several weeks where each
public health dept lab could process perhaps 20 samples only. So there has
been virtually no community level testing. Docs have patients in ICU
intubated with CT scans consistent with COVID and even this week it is
taking 4 days to get a test result from quest after quest started
processing tests Monday. If hospital docs cannot get patients tested, you
know no one in the community is getting tested. Meanwhile the virus is
spreading exponentially because social distancing is not being implemented
in a timely manner. We will have more testing available each day and the
suspicion is we will uncover a large number of cases eventually. The
severely ill have not hit the hospital in numbers yet because it is early
and the numbers of infected people are building rapidly but not all of the
infected people who will get sick are sick yet. Basically there is no
reason to suspect this will be any better than Italy, and there are good
reasons to suspect the disease will spread further before appropriate
containment measures are taken.

If it runs its course without intervention, or even with intervention,
there could be a considerable amount of time during which hospitals may be
unable to care for all patients with respiratory failure, no matter the
cause of the respiratory failure (trauma, heart attacks, strokes etc would
all be competing with covid 19 patients for hospital resources). Italy is
in that situation now and the problem is still getting worse daily. We are
not accustomed to having to make tough , resource constrained decisions
about which patient to save. Of course 80% of patients will be able to ride
it out without hospitalization, but that isnt setting a very high bar by
any modern healthcare standard.

Comparing annualized incidence numbers of influenza fatalities to a novel
disease with an epidemic in its infancy is obviously not meaningful due to
the fact that this is only weeks old and good prevalence/incidence data for
covid 19 is simply lacking in the general population. We do know that it
can put enough people into respiratory failure rapidly enough to overload
the hospital system of a fairly advanced industrial democracy. How big a
problem that is depends upon whether you or your loved one are a patient or
not, and how many people have friends or family members who end up being
hospitalized or dying during this epidemic, for any reason. Your likelihood
of being in that group depends in part upon how long the system remains in
a resource constrained mode of operation, and upon how large the mismatch
is. The mismatch between available resources and sick patients on any given
day depends in large part upon the incidence (new cases per day), which is
most effectively limited through early control of transmission.  People in
respiratory failure die fairly quickly, and it would be particularly tragic
to lose a large number of people due to critical care bed shortages when
many patients seem to be able to recover from it given proper supportive
measures. Social distancing is going to be a key part of limiting the
spread, because there are many cases with mild symptoms who still shed the
virus. Isolating very sick people is not enough.

Karl

On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:07 PM Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> I am not one to get too exercised about this Covid thing but that might
> have changed.
>
> Dr. Boy (Villanova, Georgetown University School of Medicine, Brown U
> resident Internal Medicine, currently Stanford U Fellow in Pulmonary
> Critical Care) called me a little while ago to check in on my situation. He
> is pretty low key but no bullsh*t. Tells it straight. And he’s pretty smart
> if I do say so...
>
> They have several covid patients at the hospital now. They are preparing
> for an onslaught of more patients the next week or two. Turning ORs and
> other spaces into ICUs right now.  The expectation is that his hospital, as
> well as every 

Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Dan Penoff via Mercedes]

I’m like a lot of the group, barely on the fringe of the high risk tier. I walk 
2-3 miles daily at least and do a fair amount of physical activity, get plenty 
of sleep and take 1000mg of C daily. I could eat better, but I think I do 
fairly well in that area. I’m not concerned about myself at this point, but I 
am concerned about others around me…

The neighborhood had a big gathering yesterday that went well into the evening. 
I stayed away, but the wife, who is a social butterfly, was there almost the 
whole time. I’m still trying to understand the logic behind food anxiety one 
day and the inability to avoid crowds as directed by the CDC the next. I’m not 
bringing up the topics unless they come up, as I’m sure it will end poorly…

-D who just finished hauling and spreading 10 - 4 CF bags of cypress mulch 
around the yard. And it’s only 9:00 am! Plenty of time for more fun!

> On Mar 15, 2020, at 2:00 AM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes  
> wrote:
> 
> Andrew sez:
> 
>> since I am in the vulnerable age
> 
> I would suspect that you are in quite good aerobic health, Andrew. Racket 
> ball would seem to be a good sport for athletic conditioning. 
> 
> Rick
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> 
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Rick Knoble via Mercedes]

Andrew sez:

>since I am in the vulnerable age

I would suspect that you are in quite good aerobic health, Andrew. Racket ball 
would seem to be a good sport for athletic conditioning. 

Rick
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes]

My grown son just called from LA and threatened to move to MD to make sure
I did not expose myself to crowds, since I am in the vulnerable age
bracket.  He also shared this sobering article about asymptomatic spreading
of the virus.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html


On Sat, Mar 14, 2020 at 11:15 PM Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> No problem
>
> --FT
> Sent from iPhone
>
> > On Mar 14, 2020, at 11:03 PM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> >
> > Mind if I share this, if I don't attribute it to anyone specifically?
> I'll x out education and work stats.
> >
> > Rick
> >
> >
> > ___
> > http://www.okiebenz.com
> >
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> >
> > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
> >
>
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>
>
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes]

No problem 

--FT
Sent from iPhone

> On Mar 14, 2020, at 11:03 PM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> Mind if I share this, if I don't attribute it to anyone specifically? I'll x 
> out education and work stats. 
> 
> Rick
> 
> 
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> 
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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Rick Knoble via Mercedes]

Mind if I share this, if I don't attribute it to anyone specifically? I'll x 
out education and work stats. 

Rick


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Re: [MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Dwight Giles via Mercedes]

Floyd,
You raised  a good Dr boy. I think his,advice squares with the best
research & policy i have read. Tinker one of those $500 MB's in the interim.

Dwight Giles Jr.
Wickford RI

On Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 10:07 PM Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> I am not one to get too exercised about this Covid thing but that might
> have changed.
>
> Dr. Boy (Villanova, Georgetown University School of Medicine, Brown U
> resident Internal Medicine, currently Stanford U Fellow in Pulmonary
> Critical Care) called me a little while ago to check in on my situation. He
> is pretty low key but no bullsh*t. Tells it straight. And he’s pretty smart
> if I do say so...
>
> They have several covid patients at the hospital now. They are preparing
> for an onslaught of more patients the next week or two. Turning ORs and
> other spaces into ICUs right now.  The expectation is that his hospital, as
> well as every other hospital, will be completely overwhelmed before long.
>
> Apparently this is now happening in Italy and is rolling into other EU
> countries though that has not been widely reported. It’s bad. No one
> believes what China are reporting though their draconian measures to
> contain the contagion *might* have helped lower the fatalities. The view is
> that it is really bad there and will likely be so in other places.
>
> The limiting factor will be ventilators to deal with respiratory failure
> or compromise. If (and this could be a big if) you get to the hospital, and
> if they have room, and there are no ventilators and you need one you will
> be SOL. Reality as there is a limited supply of these things and it is not
> large.
>
> He strongly suggested, even though I am quite healthy, that I severely
> limit my interaction with the world.  Even being healthy the chances of
> catching this and having adverse effects are not trivial given the expected
> infection rate and effects.  I am situated as to where that would not be
> too difficult to do, save some occasional trips to the grocery and Lowe’s
> and such. I’m working on my house, getting it ready to sell, so can just
> focus on that rather than social intercourse.
>
> I am digesting this but strongly considering revising my view on all this
> given I absolutely trust the boy, and this is the first time he has been
> this serious about something.
>
> As always, YMMV...
>
> --FT
> Sent from iPhone
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
>
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>
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>
>
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[MBZ] Ok y’all **it just got real

[Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes]

I am not one to get too exercised about this Covid thing but that might have 
changed. 

Dr. Boy (Villanova, Georgetown University School of Medicine, Brown U resident 
Internal Medicine, currently Stanford U Fellow in Pulmonary Critical Care) 
called me a little while ago to check in on my situation. He is pretty low key 
but no bullsh*t. Tells it straight. And he’s pretty smart if I do say so...

They have several covid patients at the hospital now. They are preparing for an 
onslaught of more patients the next week or two. Turning ORs and other spaces 
into ICUs right now.  The expectation is that his hospital, as well as every 
other hospital, will be completely overwhelmed before long. 

Apparently this is now happening in Italy and is rolling into other EU 
countries though that has not been widely reported. It’s bad. No one believes 
what China are reporting though their draconian measures to contain the 
contagion *might* have helped lower the fatalities. The view is that it is 
really bad there and will likely be so in other places. 

The limiting factor will be ventilators to deal with respiratory failure or 
compromise. If (and this could be a big if) you get to the hospital, and if 
they have room, and there are no ventilators and you need one you will be SOL. 
Reality as there is a limited supply of these things and it is not large. 

He strongly suggested, even though I am quite healthy, that I severely limit my 
interaction with the world.  Even being healthy the chances of catching this 
and having adverse effects are not trivial given the expected infection rate 
and effects.  I am situated as to where that would not be too difficult to do, 
save some occasional trips to the grocery and Lowe’s and such. I’m working on 
my house, getting it ready to sell, so can just focus on that rather than 
social intercourse. 

I am digesting this but strongly considering revising my view on all this given 
I absolutely trust the boy, and this is the first time he has been this serious 
about something.

As always, YMMV...

--FT
Sent from iPhone
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