Re: [ob] Re: FW: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Property Sector: Eyeing mispricing opportunity
riel di lapangan ada peningkatan pembelian di deket akhir Q3 waktu banyak orang takut BI Rate akan naik terus.. Mungkin seperti ASII, orang-2 panic buying di akhir tahun karena semua salesman bilang 2009 harga akan melejit karena USD dan Yen vs. Rp. Mohon koreksi, pembelian seperti ini kadang dibukukan saat delivery mobil bukan saat pemesanan untuk mobil/motor karena harga selalu tidak mengikat, akan tetapi dibukukan saat pemesanan dan DP dibayar untuk property karena harga sudah fix di depan. Bener gak ya ? On Sun, Apr 12, 2009 at 12:09 PM, jsx_consultant < jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id> wrote: > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com , > "lie_yoseph" wrote: > > > > CTRA keuntungannya dari Bunga Deposito yg sangat besar. Jadi bukan dari > keuntungan operasional. > > > > Laba operasi Q3 20B dan Q4 104B, jadi ini keuntungan operasionil > yg jadi 'TANDA TANYA' > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com , > "jsx_consultant" wrote: > > > > > > Pada emiten property ada LONJAKAN keuntungan yg besar pada > > > kwartal 4 terutama pada group Ciputra. > > > > > > Apakah ini rekayasa keuangan dengan menggeser keuntungan dari > > > kwartal sebelumnya ke kwartal 4 ?. > > > > > > Ada yg tahu PERSISnya kenapa ? > > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, > "Vic" wrote: > > > > > > > > properti gerak lagi. bahkan asri n bksl. > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, > "Sanjaya" wrote: > > > > > > > > > > CTRA TP Rp. 505. > > > > > > > > > > ELTY TP Rp. 125. > > > > > > > > > > SMRA TP Rp. 400. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya > properti Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Salam, > > > > > > > > > > Sanjaya > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Eyeing mispricing opportunity > > > > > > > > > > 􀂄 Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite > > > > > > > > > > There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the > ground recently. > > > > > > > > > > Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps > from > > > > > > > > > > January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only > rates near 10% > > > > > > > > > > pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08. > > > > > > > > > > 􀂄 Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform > > > > > > > > > > The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage > rates is landedresidential > > > > > > > > > > especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials > earn > > > > > > > > > > lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for > developers although > > > > > > > > > > demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. > We are > > > > > > > > > > negative on investment properties this year. We believe a > meaningful increase in > > > > > > > > > > rental rates is unlikely. > > > > > > > > > > 􀂄 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive > > > > > > > > > > We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe > RNAV has been > > > > > > > > > > an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of > RNAV recovery may > > > > > > > > > > vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average > 4% discount. > > > > > > > > > > 􀂄 Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis > > > > > > > > > > We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, > and > > > > > > > > > > Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, > respectively. > > > > > > > > > > We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling > over our > > > > > > > > > > RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise > our price > > > > > > > > > > targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% > WACC > > > > > > > > > > for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for > investment > > > > > > > > > > properties. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
[ob] Re: FW: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Property Sector: Eyeing mispricing opportunity
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "lie_yoseph" wrote: > > CTRA keuntungannya dari Bunga Deposito yg sangat besar. Jadi bukan dari > keuntungan operasional. > Laba operasi Q3 20B dan Q4 104B, jadi ini keuntungan operasionil yg jadi 'TANDA TANYA' > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsx_consultant" > wrote: > > > > Pada emiten property ada LONJAKAN keuntungan yg besar pada > > kwartal 4 terutama pada group Ciputra. > > > > Apakah ini rekayasa keuangan dengan menggeser keuntungan dari > > kwartal sebelumnya ke kwartal 4 ?. > > > > Ada yg tahu PERSISnya kenapa ? > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Vic" wrote: > > > > > > properti gerak lagi. bahkan asri n bksl. > > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Sanjaya" wrote: > > > > > > > > CTRA TP Rp. 505. > > > > > > > > ELTY TP Rp. 125. > > > > > > > > SMRA TP Rp. 400. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya properti > > > > Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Salam, > > > > > > > > Sanjaya > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Eyeing mispricing opportunity > > > > > > > > ô Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite > > > > > > > > There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the ground > > > > recently. > > > > > > > > Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps from > > > > > > > > January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only rates > > > > near 10% > > > > > > > > pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08. > > > > > > > > ô Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform > > > > > > > > The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage rates > > > > is landedresidential > > > > > > > > especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials earn > > > > > > > > lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for developers > > > > although > > > > > > > > demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. We > > > > are > > > > > > > > negative on investment properties this year. We believe a meaningful > > > > increase in > > > > > > > > rental rates is unlikely. > > > > > > > > ô 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive > > > > > > > > We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe RNAV > > > > has been > > > > > > > > an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of RNAV > > > > recovery may > > > > > > > > vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average 4% > > > > discount. > > > > > > > > ô Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis > > > > > > > > We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, and > > > > > > > > Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, > > > > respectively. > > > > > > > > We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling > > > > over our > > > > > > > > RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise our > > > > price > > > > > > > > targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% WACC > > > > > > > > for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for investment > > > > > > > > properties. > > > > > > > > > >
[ob] Re: FW: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Property Sector: Eyeing mispricing opportunity
CTRA keuntungannya dari Bunga Deposito yg sangat besar. Jadi bukan dari keuntungan operasional. --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsx_consultant" wrote: > > Pada emiten property ada LONJAKAN keuntungan yg besar pada > kwartal 4 terutama pada group Ciputra. > > Apakah ini rekayasa keuangan dengan menggeser keuntungan dari > kwartal sebelumnya ke kwartal 4 ?. > > Ada yg tahu PERSISnya kenapa ? > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Vic" wrote: > > > > properti gerak lagi. bahkan asri n bksl. > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Sanjaya" wrote: > > > > > > CTRA TP Rp. 505. > > > > > > ELTY TP Rp. 125. > > > > > > SMRA TP Rp. 400. > > > > > > > > > > > > Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya properti > > > Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? > > > > > > > > > > > > Salam, > > > > > > Sanjaya > > > > > > > > > > > > Eyeing mispricing opportunity > > > > > > ô Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite > > > > > > There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the ground > > > recently. > > > > > > Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps from > > > > > > January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only rates > > > near 10% > > > > > > pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08. > > > > > > ô Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform > > > > > > The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage rates is > > > landedresidential > > > > > > especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials earn > > > > > > lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for developers > > > although > > > > > > demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. We are > > > > > > negative on investment properties this year. We believe a meaningful > > > increase in > > > > > > rental rates is unlikely. > > > > > > ô 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive > > > > > > We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe RNAV > > > has been > > > > > > an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of RNAV > > > recovery may > > > > > > vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average 4% > > > discount. > > > > > > ô Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis > > > > > > We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, and > > > > > > Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, > > > respectively. > > > > > > We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling over > > > our > > > > > > RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise our > > > price > > > > > > targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% WACC > > > > > > for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for investment > > > > > > properties. > > > > > >
[ob] Re: FW: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Property Sector: Eyeing mispricing opportunity
Pada emiten property ada LONJAKAN keuntungan yg besar pada kwartal 4 terutama pada group Ciputra. Apakah ini rekayasa keuangan dengan menggeser keuntungan dari kwartal sebelumnya ke kwartal 4 ?. Ada yg tahu PERSISnya kenapa ? --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Vic" wrote: > > properti gerak lagi. bahkan asri n bksl. > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Sanjaya" wrote: > > > > CTRA TP Rp. 505. > > > > ELTY TP Rp. 125. > > > > SMRA TP Rp. 400. > > > > > > > > Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya properti > > Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? > > > > > > > > Salam, > > > > Sanjaya > > > > > > > > Eyeing mispricing opportunity > > > > ô Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite > > > > There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the ground > > recently. > > > > Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps from > > > > January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only rates near > > 10% > > > > pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08. > > > > ô Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform > > > > The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage rates is > > landedresidential > > > > especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials earn > > > > lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for developers > > although > > > > demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. We are > > > > negative on investment properties this year. We believe a meaningful > > increase in > > > > rental rates is unlikely. > > > > ô 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive > > > > We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe RNAV has > > been > > > > an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of RNAV > > recovery may > > > > vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average 4% > > discount. > > > > ô Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis > > > > We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, and > > > > Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, respectively. > > > > We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling over our > > > > RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise our price > > > > targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% WACC > > > > for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for investment > > > > properties. > > >
[ob] Re: FW: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Property Sector: Eyeing mispricing opportunity
properti gerak lagi. bahkan asri n bksl. --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Sanjaya" wrote: > > CTRA TP Rp. 505. > > ELTY TP Rp. 125. > > SMRA TP Rp. 400. > > > > Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya properti > Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? > > > > Salam, > > Sanjaya > > > > Eyeing mispricing opportunity > > ô Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite > > There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the ground > recently. > > Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps from > > January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only rates near 10% > > pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08. > > ô Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform > > The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage rates is > landedresidential > > especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials earn > > lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for developers > although > > demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. We are > > negative on investment properties this year. We believe a meaningful increase > in > > rental rates is unlikely. > > ô 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive > > We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe RNAV has > been > > an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of RNAV recovery > may > > vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average 4% discount. > > ô Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis > > We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, and > > Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, respectively. > > We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling over our > > RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise our price > > targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% WACC > > for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for investment > > properties. >
[ob] Re: FW: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Property Sector: Eyeing mispricing opportunity
news n riset cc: Bakrieland: FY08 net income overpasses ours and consensus estimates (ELTY, Rp85 Buy, TP: 200) Bakrieland posted FY08 revenues of Rp1.05tn, which came in 4% higher than our estimates but fell short of consensus by 9%. Meanwhile due to rising costs, operating income of Rp226bn, came short of ours and consensus estimates accounting for some 81% of our and consensus full year estimates. The lower than expected results at operating level was compensated by the rise in net income to Rp272bn (+102%yoy), largely boosted by a net forex gain of Rp109bn (vs 0.09bn in 08), which came 48% and 46% above ours and consensus estimates. The company has some Rp1.2bn worth of sales backlog up for realization within the next 24 months, which should keep our FY09F EPS growth forecast intact at 21% yoy based on our previous forecast. We maintain buy as the stock trades at a 83% discount to our NAV09F. --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Sanjaya" wrote: > > CTRA TP Rp. 505. > > ELTY TP Rp. 125. > > SMRA TP Rp. 400. > > > > Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya properti > Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? > > > > Salam, > > Sanjaya > > > > Eyeing mispricing opportunity > > ô Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite > > There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the ground > recently. > > Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps from > > January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only rates near 10% > > pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08. > > ô Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform > > The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage rates is > landedresidential > > especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials earn > > lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for developers > although > > demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. We are > > negative on investment properties this year. We believe a meaningful increase > in > > rental rates is unlikely. > > ô 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive > > We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe RNAV has > been > > an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of RNAV recovery > may > > vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average 4% discount. > > ô Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis > > We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, and > > Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, respectively. > > We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling over our > > RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise our price > > targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% WACC > > for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for investment > > properties. >
Re: [ob] Re: FW: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Property Sector: Eyeing mispricing opportunity
hati hati sell on news, nanti seperti waktu bulan lalu SBI turun, saham perbankan malah turun. apalagi katanya dipaksa... segala sesuatu yang dipaksa itu tidak baik On Wed, Mar 25, 2009 at 11:09 AM, Vic wrote: > mulai bergerak kah? > awal april bank2 bumn kabarnya mulai turunin bunga kredit. > (katanya "dipaksa" gitu) > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com , > "Sanjaya" wrote: > > > > CTRA TP Rp. 505. > > > > ELTY TP Rp. 125. > > > > SMRA TP Rp. 400. > > > > > > > > Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya properti > Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? > > > > > > > > Salam, > > > > Sanjaya > > > > > > > > Eyeing mispricing opportunity > > > > 􀂄 Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite > > > > There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the ground > recently. > > > > Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps from > > > > January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only rates > near 10% > > > > pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08. > > > > 􀂄 Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform > > > > The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage rates is > landedresidential > > > > especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials earn > > > > lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for developers > although > > > > demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. We are > > > > negative on investment properties this year. We believe a meaningful > increase in > > > > rental rates is unlikely. > > > > 􀂄 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive > > > > We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe RNAV > has been > > > > an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of RNAV > recovery may > > > > vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average 4% > discount. > > > > 􀂄 Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis > > > > We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, and > > > > Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, > respectively. > > > > We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling over > our > > > > RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise our > price > > > > targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% WACC > > > > for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for investment > > > > properties. > > > > >
[ob] Re: FW: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Property Sector: Eyeing mispricing opportunity
mulai bergerak kah? awal april bank2 bumn kabarnya mulai turunin bunga kredit. (katanya "dipaksa" gitu) --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Sanjaya" wrote: > > CTRA TP Rp. 505. > > ELTY TP Rp. 125. > > SMRA TP Rp. 400. > > > > Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya properti > Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? > > > > Salam, > > Sanjaya > > > > Eyeing mispricing opportunity > > ô Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite > > There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the ground > recently. > > Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps from > > January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only rates near 10% > > pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08. > > ô Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform > > The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage rates is > landedresidential > > especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials earn > > lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for developers > although > > demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. We are > > negative on investment properties this year. We believe a meaningful increase > in > > rental rates is unlikely. > > ô 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive > > We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe RNAV has > been > > an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of RNAV recovery > may > > vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average 4% discount. > > ô Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis > > We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, and > > Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, respectively. > > We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling over our > > RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise our price > > targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% WACC > > for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for investment > > properties. >
