[www.niftyviews.com:23694] Fwd: Voltas: 310-315 May Be A Good Supply Zone
Forwarded Message Subject:Voltas: 310-315 May Be A Good Supply Zone Date: Wed, 23 Dec 2015 09:10:20 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com CMP: 304 Either Sell below 298 or on rise around 310-315: TGT: 277-260-250-242 (1-3M) TSL>323 Note: Consecutive closing above 323 for any reason, Voltas may further rally to 331-348*-360 & 380 in the near term. Voltas rallied by over 27% since last Sep'15 on the back of festival season sale, expected 7-th Pay Comm induced liquidity in the low/medium ticket consumer durable goods like AC, hope for GST etc. Overall, the stock outperformed the broader market quite well. Looking ahead, some analysts are concerned over likely intensified competition in AC market and that can lead to margin squeeze and some loss of market share for Voltas. In any way, Voltas is a good company for portfolio investment having a great brand & strong distribution network. But recent price action suggests that 310-315 is a strong supply zone and technically its has to sustain above this zone for further rally up to 360-380 zone in the mid to long term. On the downside, 298 zone is now acting as a decent support and sustain below that it can again fall towards 277-250 area. Considering the risk reward ratio, thus buy on dips around this level may be good for portfolio investment. *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6NsJyJyeF1c/VnoU7d2KsaI/FZo/QSO483yENes/s1600/Voltas-22-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iZ8oWwOL-rc/VnoVJRXHwII/FZw/MIq26s_E4s4/s1600/Voltas-FIBB-22-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-joL--HzsxY0/VnoVMCgdoVI/FZ4/Fko5WT6X5Ws/s1600/Voltas-WK-22-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IL1YN_h8jdI/VnoVO4wLtcI/FaA/AfSx-tfV0Hs/s1600/Voltas-TL-22-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IZTX7KDFwHc/VnoVRWaHQzI/FaI/2R8Y9LSYIlo/s1600/Voltas-Pattern-22-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PoLsV6znbxw/VnoVXXY6bjI/FaQ/lwZCi8IImwk/s1600/Voltas-PATTERN-MT-22-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23709] Fwd: Market Mantra: Nifty Fut (Dec) Update
Forwarded Message Subject:Market Mantra: Nifty Fut (Dec) Update Date: Tue, 29 Dec 2015 09:07:35 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com SGX NF:7926 NSE NF: 7904 As par early morning SGX indication, NSE NF may open around 7925 area after steady overnight US market amid initial China & oil woes. There were some market buzz of Chinese corporate debt defaults yesterday and Chinese as well as global market dipped initially amid low volumes. *Technically, NF need to sustain over 7950-7980 zone for an immediate target of 8005-8055.* *On the downside, sustain below 7915-7880 it may fall towards 7855-7820 and 7780-7725 in the next few trading days.* It appears that absence of FII selling is helping a lot in the "Santa" rally for our market along with year end NAV window dressing; still we are down around 7% YOY in Nifty. Going forward, Oil may be the one the biggest headwinds for global markets as well as EM for 2016. Some analysts believe that although lower oil prices are beneficial for major oil importing economies (such as India/China/EU), it has its darker side too. Not only that, lower oil prices already shelving projects worth billion of dollars, but it may also accelerate out flow of surplus cash from EM equities, bonds portfolio by the oil producing economies. In the past, these oil producing economies has invested huge amount of their surplus cash into EM countries for better yield and and that has helped to finance the current account deficit of may EM countries too. In short, oil producing economies are provider of trillion dollar liquidity in the global financial system and if oil goes down to $30-25 for any reason and stay there for prolonged time (demand supply mismatch and increasing global green initiatives), we may see serious outflow of petro dollar and panic in the global as well as EM financial system in 2016. Already various OPEC countries including Saudi Arabia are in some turmoil. Also, due to lower oil prices, Canada's (G6 country) economy was not in great shape in 2015 and 2016 is also not looking brighter at this moment. For our market, investors may wait for another three months up to March budget session to see the outcome of GST passage and possibility of any "dream" budget apart from Q3 results in Jan-Feb. Till then, 7500-8000 may be the broad Nifty range. * * *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Hcdqc9BPc8I/VoH9bJHV1xI/Fc8/YL1dqI8-dR8/s1600/NF-28-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j3uZjUDMXIA/VoH9dSQglVI/FdE/f_0ieTHL1Vw/s1600/NF-FIBB-28-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23696] Fwd: TATA STEEL : Another Example Of India's Failed Globalisation Effort ?
Forwarded Message Subject: TATA STEEL : Another Example Of India's Failed Globalisation Effort ? Date: Thu, 24 Dec 2015 09:49:44 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For TS, 268-282 may be a good resistance zone* * * *Although the proposed UK deal may help the Co in reducing cash burn, * *its too small amount for any significance deleverage for TS* *CMP: 264* * * *Sell either break below 262 or on rise around 268-282;* * * *TGT: 236-223-215 (1-3M)* * * *TSL>285* *Note: Technically, for TS, consecutive closing above 285 for any reason, the stock can further rally towards 295-300 & 320-340 area in the near term. This is purely a technical trading idea, based on price action for some recent new flow.* TS and all the other metal/steel sectors are in news for the last few weeks due to Govt's initiative to provide adequate protection of domestic steel manufactures from Chinese aggression. Moreover, TS came to the limelight amid news flow of its UK long products division sale negotiation to Greybull Capital. Though the negotiation is not finalized and a LOI has been executed, as par reports, the deal value may be near GBP 500 mln. In consolidated BS of TS, this long products div has zero BV and as par some estimates, this is causing around $160 mln annualized loss for TS. Thus the deal amount is too small wrt TS's huge consolidated debt of around Rs.72000 cr as on Q2FY16, which is double its NW. Although, there is some uncertainty about whether the deal goes through and what price, the proposed sale of this loss making long products units may help TS certainly to reduce its current cash burn. But the deal amount is not so significant for overall deleveraging effort of the company. As par analysts at Jefferies, most EU steel companies are trading around 0.2-0.5 x P/B, the turnaround investor (Greybull) is unlikely to pay a strategic premium for this long steel products assets of TS in UK. Also, there are many headwinds for steel industry in EU/UK for currency volatility, unfavorable demand supply situation and Chinese imports. Analysts are also of the opinion that although, the above potential deal could help curtail loses at TSE partly, there are other UK units, which continue to weigh on its EBITDA. Over the years many Indian corporates, went into globalisation spree at 2007-08 recession price, but even that is now causing headwinds for its BS as most of these overseas assets are either making loses or negligible profits and ROE is far less than standard in the domestic market. Thus the Indian companies are trying to exit at any cost, even in loss to repay massive debt. For TS, this UK deal news was there in the market for the last few days even before official announcement and that's why the stock broke the previous strong resistance zone of 250 and now trading around 265. Still this is more than 32% rally in the last three months from its recent bottom of around 200. *Technically, if TS fails to sustain above 268-282 zone, it may consolidate and a fall below 262, it may again come down to 223-215 zone in the near term, from where one can again buy for portfolio investment, considering the favorable risk reward ratio.* *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-u3WysVmXLrY/Vntm-2Def7I/Fak/mI7QU2prTus/s1600/TS-23-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oEoW5Mb9s78/VntnAxtCSeI/Fas/VH-D5ZAHK_U/s1600/TS-FIBB-23-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3VMm0WubSSI/VntnD5v5CcI/Fa0/PnbhK97LUDg/s1600/TS-WK-23-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YK4Lu7k1WG4/VntnFP0VuHI/Fa8/hfyV7ZU-01w/s1600/TS-PATTERN-23-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bfOharTXvUw/VntnMI_74AI/FbE/ttwdwzJMLVg/s1600/TS-TL-ST-23-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3leT2Vv2DSI/VntnWiWIC0I/FbU/lqT7uBSxRCY/s1600/TS-TL-23-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To uns
[www.niftyviews.com:23715] Fwd: Reliance Capital: Nearly 75% Rally In Last 4 Months---Is It Time For Sale ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Reliance Capital: Nearly 75% Rally In Last 4 Months---Is It Time For Sale ? Date: Wed, 30 Dec 2015 09:35:03 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *CMP: 432* * * *Sell either below 437-442 or on rise around 450-470;* *TGT: 414*-402-384 (1-3M) * * * *TSL > 480* *Note: Consecutive closing above 480 for any reason, R-Capital may further rally up to 500-515-535 & 580-605 and further to 652-670 in the medium to long term.* R-Capital is another story of deleveraging in 2015 and consecutively since late Aug'15, it rallied almost 75%. Considering all the positive news flows including Insurance Bill (FDI) last year and price action on the scrip, 450-470 may be a stiff resistance zone for the scrip. It may come down again to 414-402 level, if it fails to sustain above this zone and one may accumulate the same from around 400 level for better risk reward ratio. To be cont for more news and analytics input--- *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7CIZegVvPA0/VoNRVCO2roI/FdY/d9PgcYYD4Lk/s1600/RC-29-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WLqrOQdAVwQ/VoNRXmRVnjI/Fdg/YWVEmfPH99k/s1600/RC-FIBB-29-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m_ntMlsFK50/VoNRZs3NqII/Fdo/-pAdQJcIZAU/s1600/RC-WK-29-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-v7vHFq7AJ-I/VoNRb7RH62I/Fdw/bjmG-iNRwKQ/s1600/RC-PATTERN-29-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-v_aRv4XVGu8/VoNRd0qhBWI/Fd4/4xUDOqGMS-w/s1600/RC-TL-29-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cC3H45w698k/VoNRfZ517LI/FeA/hRu9fRiLPXI/s1600/RC-TL-MT-29-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23676] Fwd: JSW Steel: 30% Rally In Last Six Months---Is It Time For Sale ?
Forwarded Message Subject:JSW Steel: 30% Rally In Last Six Months---Is It Time For Sale ? Date: Fri, 18 Dec 2015 09:18:14 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For JSW, 1060-1075 may be a good supply zone* *CMP: 1048* *Sell on rise around: 1060-1075-1090* *TGT: 1005-970*-935 (1-3M)* * * *TSL>1100* *Note: Consecutive closing above 1100 for any reason, JSW may scale up to 1135-1175-1230 area in the mid to long term.* JSW ran a dream rally of over 30% in the last six months and more importantly rallied by over 20% in the last few weeks alone. The rally was fulled primarily by the Govt's clampdown initiative on imported steels from China & other CIS countries. Beside imposition of huge import duties, there is a market buzz of MSP (minimum support price to be considered for imported steels). Also BIS approval will be needed for exporting steel to India (as majority of the China steel factories don't have any BIS approval from India). Thus, Govt is extending all types of possible support to protect domestic steel manufactures from aggression of China steel industry. But is it sufficient enough for a stupendous jump in their net bottom line (earnings) in the days ahead ? JSW is now quoting around 29 P/E against average industry P/E of around 6. Present TTM EPS of JSW is around 36.21 (stand-alone) & 16.61 (consolidated). Analysts are expecting an EPS of 60.80 & 84.50 on an average for FY:17-18; i.e a jump of around 68-133% in 1-2 year !! Considering even the projected demand & supply, Chinese import factor, the above jump in EPS is looking quite stretched and may be on the higher side. *Technically, JSW may be in the 5-th Wave of daily EW cycle and the extended target of the same may be around 1062. In that scenario, corrective target of A-Wave may be around 995-980 & 935. * *As par BG metrics & current market scenario:* (on stand alone TTM & FWD EPS) Present median valuation of JSW may be around : 800-840 (FY:15-16/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around : 1025-1210 (FY:17-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA JSWSTEEL36.21 1030.07 18 781.21 801.92 791.57 936.34 986.65 JSWSTEEL40.51092.55 18 826.19 848.10 837.14 936.34 986.65 JSWSTEEL60.81162.95 18 1012.29 1039.13 1025.71 936.34 986.65 JSWSTEEL84.51244.25 18 1193.39 1225.03 1209.21 936.34 986.65 *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7DpqNKF5sPg/VnN-gPCE42I/FWo/yk9K9JE10PQ/s1600/JSW-17-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GUSR71EFCKE/VnN-mg285PI/FWw/Ei3BbLNaUvI/s1600/JSW-FIBB-17-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XHfWC20HXwc/VnN-oVmeDII/FW4/uNm75PG04Ac/s1600/JSW-WK-17-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tPW4VSmDhK4/VnN-qHbvvRI/FXA/WfQ_46w1Ap8/s1600/JSW-TL-RSI-17-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gEvhJytasQw/VnN-rrG43RI/FXI/ZGuG76xW4QQ/s1600/JSW-PATTERN-17-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8FUcFYvQe5k/VnN-tWdqoKI/AAAAFXQ/x1-zggN75x8/s1600/JSW-EW-17-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23588] Fwd: Yes Bank: Transforming Itself From Corp. To Retail Lender ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Yes Bank: Transforming Itself From Corp. To Retail Lender ? Date: Fri, 27 Nov 2015 08:56:38 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For Yes Bk, 730-710 area may be a good buying zone* *Near term target may be 780-800 * Decreasing fresh corporate exposoure and increasing retail lending may help in the near term *CMP: 750* * * *Either buy on sustained break out above 760 or wait for dips around: 730-720-710* * * *TGT: 780-800* (1-3M)* * * *TGT: 855-905-1025-1065 (12-24M)* * * *TSL<690* Note: Consecutive closing below 690 for any reason, Yes Bk can fall up to 674-640-620-595* and 560-520 zone in the alternative worst case scenario. But, time & price action suggests that 620-595 may be a very good demand zone for the stock in that scenario and one can again accumulate from there for better investment buying average. Q2FY16 result was above street estimates but lagged asset quality concerns. Q2 PAT was around Rs.610 cr against median expectation of Rs.593 cr, registered a growth of around 26% (YOY-482 & QOQ-551). Q2 EPS was at 14.25 against consensus of 13.66 (YOY-11.38 & QOQ-12.85). Q2 NII was at Rs.1108.5 cr against estimate of Rs.1085.80 cr; up by almost 29.5% YOY. Although NII margin was expanded by 0.10% to 3.3% on YOY basis, sequentially it was almost flat. In Q2FY16, net NPA of Yes Bk shot up by around 49% sequentially and 194% on YOY basis to Rs.159 cr. Thus in Q2, strong NII, other income (fees etc) and operating profit (leverage) helped Yes Bk, but higher provisions and tax liability limited its overall profitability. The bank has also cut down overall corporate loan exposoure amid increasingly stretched corporate balance sheets and trying to diversify and expand into high margin, low risk retail lending. The management is quite confident of retaining its NII margin of around 3.3% in the coming quarters on the back of increase in low cost CASA and cut in its deposit rates (due to base rate cut transmissions) in the coming quarters. To be cont for more news and analytics inputs- *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* (Based on TTM & FWD EPS) Present median valuation of Yes Bank may be around: 835(FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations of Yes Bank might be around : 870-945-1005 (FY:16-18/FWD) (It is now available at comparatively lower PE of around 14 against industry average of around 20). SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA YESBANK 51.57 278.69 18 838.08 830.89 834.48 756.66 743.73 YESBANK 55.75 367.95 18 871.38 863.91 867.64 756.66 743.73 YESBANK 65.55 485.75 18 944.87 936.76 940.82 756.66 743.73 YESBANK 74.35 641.95 18 1006.30 997.66 1001.98 756.66 743.73 * Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wBKoXc395Qg/VlfKFXyaS-I/FBc/gJo-sVthpmM/s1600/Yes-26-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_bViLeT3YXQ/VlfKHfRW76I/FBk/9m-lnCrACnA/s1600/Yes-Fibb-26-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-W2CZ3RBNoP0/VlfKKZ07qjI/FBs/VQLNnrtT42o/s1600/Yes-WK-26-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pD5FCiuuK3g/VlfKOYWXdgI/FB0/kF1IPTryBq0/s1600/Yes-Pattern-26-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yuCo8lACSLw/VlfKR3WIKMI/FB8/Xrp7YPHm3XM/s1600/Yes-TL-26-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IooTd-TUKyo/VlfKULZljCI/FCE/ryapMyMMF28/s1600/Yes-PATTERN-LT-26-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23584] Fwd: UPL: After Advanta Merger Induced Correction, 430-420 May Be A Good Buying Zone
Forwarded Message Subject: UPL: After Advanta Merger Induced Correction, 430-420 May Be A Good Buying Zone Date: Thu, 26 Nov 2015 08:32:22 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Near term target might be 490-525* Though the Advanta merger may be an overhang in the short term, it is good (EPS accretive) over medium to long term *CMP: 437* * * *Buy on dips around: 430-420* * * *TGT: 465-476-490-525 (1-6M)* * * *TGT: 551-575-610-640 (12-24M)* * * *TSL< 415* Note: Consecutive closing below 415 for any reason. UPL can fall up to 397-372, followed by 344-320 & 300-270 zone. But considering the time & price action on the technical chart, 397-372 might be a major demand zone for the stock and one may again accumulate there for better investment buying average. Market was expecting UPL-Advanta merger ratio of 1:1, but the 30/- extra sweetener (in the form of three convertible preference share for every one Advanta share) surprised the street and consequently the stock corrected by around 8% post merger announcement high. Basically, both these two companies are like sister (associate) concerns and belong to the same promoter group (Shroff Family) and the merger was expected for a long time. The merger process is expected to be complete by the next 6-8 months. As par the management, the merger ratio was worked out with great care (DCF method) keeping in mind the potential growth & synergy benefit of both the companies. UPL will benefit from Advanta's international presence and Advanta will also benefit from UPL's rich customer base. The merged entity will grow modestly by around 10-15% amid hopes of better export from India and the full synergy benefit will be visible in the next 2-3 years. UPL has strong customer base in Brazil, US, EU & Mexico, where as Advanta has stronghold in Australia & Thailand. UPL will also benefit because of having complete value chain, right from seeds to plant protection technology and post harvest, where UPL is one of the world leader in post harvest technology to reduce corp losses. As par the company, all the major agri players are looking for a complete value chain and post merger UPL will bring tremendous values to its partners and customers. The management has also indicated some cost & synergetic benefit of around Rs.90 cr annually (tax & loan interest benefit) and another Rs.240 cr (Advanta's expected profit by FY:16-17) respectively. In the process, UPL has also guided to reduce net combined debt to Rs.3400 cr from current level of around Rs.4530 cr by FY-16. Thus the motto of this UPL-Advanta merger is to provide all-agri solutions through one single entity and enhance share holder value. Analysts are bullish on the stock in the mid to long term as the synergy benefit may take couple of years for reflection in earnings, operational efficiency, improvement in growth prospects, cash flow and return ratios etc. In the near term, analysts are some how skeptical as due to expansion in equity by around 19% after merger, there may be dilution of EPS in UPL by around 6-10%. For the deal valuations & merger ratio to be justified, the net profit of Advanta division is expected to be nearly treble from the FY-14 level of Rs.86 cr to around Rs.240 cr (excluding the Rs.90 cr in savings). The UPL management expects that for Advanta (NP to Rs.240 cr by FY-17) on the back of margin expansion and restructuring benefits. In the last five years, UPL registered an average net profit growth of around 16.8%, while Advanta clocked it as 25.29%. The street seems to be less confident about Advanta's sharp profitability projection in the near term and that will be an overhang on the UPL's earnings and thus this merger may be EPS dilutive in the short term. But, globally the seeds business (Advanta) got a higher PE than agri chemical (UPL) and thus there is some hope. Q2FY16 consolidated PAT of UPL was at around Rs.166 cr, up by 11% (YOY) against expectation of Rs.241 cr. The below estimate result may be due to cross currency headwinds, Brazil market factor and erratic & deficient monsoon in India. Q2 EPS of UPL was at 4.50 against consensus of 5.45. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* (On consolidated UPL only TTM & FWD EPS) Present median valuation of UPL may be around: 570 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations of UPL might be around: 600-660-720 (FY:16-18/FWD) *Thus 585 may be a near term median valuation of UPL and if we deduct even 10% EPS for Advanta merger factor as short term headwind, then the fair value of the combined entity might come to around 500-525.* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA UPL 27.97 136.73 25 570.24 560.43 565.33 465.03 449.17 UPL 31 324.25 25 6
[www.niftyviews.com:23595] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Dec): Expect Further Strength Only Abv 17585-17635 Zone For 18050-18950; Otherwise 17065-17625 May Be Again On The Card
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty (Dec): Expect Further Strength Only Abv 17585-17635 Zone For 18050-18950; Otherwise 17065-17625 May Be Again On The Card Date: Mon, 30 Nov 2015 09:13:16 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *RBI will be on "hold" mode till Jan/Mar'16; * *But expect some PSB moves on FDI* Trading Levels: BNF-DEC BNF-Dec LTP 17425 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 17585 17635-752 17850 18050-135* 18210-300 18485-950 <17535 Weak < 17535 17485-368 17317-250 17161-065* 16950-830 16750-625 >17585 There is no hope for any action on the part of RBI this time as the "job" was already done for the year in the previous occasion on Sep meet. Some may expect/think about any CRR/SLR/MSF tweaking for the liquidity factor among various PSBS; although very remote possibility. RBI may throw some definitive clues about 49% FDI market buzz for PSBS in order to improve their capital structure and running them as professional corporate/entity. Thus some buying may be happening in PSBS ahead of the RBI policy tomorrow. All eyes will be on to the Q2 GDP, which will be published in the evening today and RBI stance on inflation (hawkish/dovish). Depending upon the actual implementation of 7-th Pay Comm (possible wage inflation in the system) and Fed decision on Dec-16, RBI may be quite cautious this time. RBI may only start to act in Jan/March'16 for an overall expected cut of another 0.50-0.75% in FY-17, depending upon the inflation curve and need for extra stimulus for overall economy as real rate of interest in India is still quite high wrt to WPI (which matters the industry) and corporates are still struggling with their earnings. *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DL6SBHCTzTU/VlvCt_DWCJI/FDY/yaeUVbH7EnY/s1600/BNF-27-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tVE5oG0wu_g/VlvCvnsFmRI/FDg/ajjud5M-uSI/s1600/BNF-FIBB-27-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KACe7SY37Fo/VlvCyCZSHAI/FDo/7Tfr3Il-g84/s1600/BNF-WK-27-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DPeGtp9GP-k/VlvC0f6en1I/FDw/TtRvMppOjSw/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-27-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LhnTSigNWzo/VlvC26BFBoI/FD4/h8nV3j9jchM/s1600/BNF-TL-27-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UCYzlZk6lqU/VlvC5NjtlJI/FEA/Ic2Vw5_EihI/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-ST-27-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23599] Fwd: Cadila Health Care: 390-380 Might Be A Good Demand Zone
Forwarded Message Subject:Cadila Health Care: 390-380 Might Be A Good Demand Zone Date: Tue, 1 Dec 2015 08:42:13 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Sustaining above 420, near term target may be 453-485* *CMP: 400* * * *Either buy on breakout above 408 or in dips around 390-385-380:* * * *TGT: 420-437-453 (1-3M)* * * *TGT: 485-500 (12-24M)* * * *TSL<375-368* Note: Time & Price action suggests that, consecutive closing below 368 zone for any reason, CHC can fall up to 355-345* & 322-311 and 300-295 area and one can accumulate there around 355-345, which may a major support zone for the same in the near term. More news & analytical inputs will be cont- *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YlC21xVkdLw/Vl0Nk81FXnI/FEY/2V5VhQ1Og6k/s1600/Cadila-30-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yrGIZbSfXCA/Vl0NmAlmm9I/FEg/f5w0sEn0B0Y/s1600/Cadila-Fibb-30-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Y2U8qbq91mk/Vl0NpGCnfSI/FEo/gxfIjgpH3Ug/s1600/Cadila-WK-30-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pnxTw1j_Bwk/Vl0Nq2AyKUI/FEw/VdY11JWfhDo/s1600/Cadila-Pattern-30-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QePibolbg8c/Vl0NtK15zoI/FE4/eNCDoPKIUkA/s1600/Cadila-TL-30-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_NLMRoca_Uo/Vl0Nw3QdSoI/FFA/ERwN2KnQJrM/s1600/Cadila-TL-LT-30-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23561] Fwd: Maruti: May Be The Biggest Beneficiary Of 7-th Pay Comm----
Forwarded Message Subject:Maruti: May Be The Biggest Beneficiary Of 7-th Pay Comm Date: Fri, 20 Nov 2015 08:52:20 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *But 4700-4800 might be proved as strong supply zone;* *Expect 5000-5400 only sustaining above 4860 * Possible effect of 7-th Pay Comm may be already discounted to a great extent By the recent surge in the stock price; Pay Comm' proposal may poses some fiscal headwinds also !! *CMP: 4650* * * *Sell on rise around: 4750-4800* * * *TGT: 4590-4500*-4440-4314* (1-2M)* * * *TGT:4000-3900 (3M)* * * *TSL>4860* Note: Consecutive closing above 4860 for any reason, Maruti may scale up to 4950-5045-5125 & 5235-5400 in the short to medium term and in that alternative scenario, Sell position may be reversed to take advantage of the upside with 4750-4690 as TSL. Maruti is a great stock for portfolio investment, but considering the recent time & price action and some favorable news flow including the Pay Comm's report, which might be already discounted by the market to a great extent, the stock may be retraced to some extent and buying in major dips around 4300-4000 may be good, considering the decent risk reward ratio. To be cont for more news & analytics inputs- *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rh0DPPByGFc/Vk6NjuQHtYI/E9E/18qDZ2-Oiy4/s1600/Maruti-19-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-luhogBengig/Vk6NlDRbLNI/E9M/VYgOPTFbpds/s1600/Maruti-Fibb-19-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k21QNKHIiyw/Vk6NnWK9bXI/E9U/Giid6hgAC-M/s1600/Maruti-WK-19-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-06npLTjoM14/Vk6Nq7LHf6I/E9c/mO_HGmJDNgU/s1600/Maruti-Pattern-19-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RJeE3uEIy8c/Vk6NsiPl25I/E9k/YbJ31_ZyeEo/s1600/Maruti-TL-19-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tzRTnYGUpcM/Vk6N5KcOiKI/E9s/CSMWh2mMkhI/s1600/Maruti-Pattern-ST-19-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23571] Fwd: HDFC Bank: 1040-1030 Might Be A Good Demand Zone---
Forwarded Message Subject:HDFC Bank: 1040-1030 Might Be A Good Demand Zone--- Date: Mon, 23 Nov 2015 08:41:29 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Near/Mid term target may be 1115-1130* Strong retail loan growth may help in the coming days. *CMP: 1070* *Buy either on breakout above 1090 or in dips around 1040-1030:* *TGT: 1115-1130 (1-3M)* *TGT:1185-1280 (12-24M)* *TSL<1010* Note: Consecutive closing below 1010-998 zone for any reason HDFC Bk can fall up to 975-944 & 930-915 area, where it may be again accumulated for better portfolio investment average. Some more news inputs and analytics will be cont *As par BG metrics & current market parameters: * (Based on standalone TTM & FWD EPS) Current median valuation of HDFC Bk may be around: 1040 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 1090-1185-1300 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA HDFCBANK44.6246.68 23 1029.27 1045.06 1037.16 1032.75 1064.68 HDFCBANK49.28 324.25 23 1081.92 1098.52 1090.22 1032.75 HDFCBANK58.25 426.75 23 1176.28 1194.32 1185.30 1032.75 HDFCBANK69.55 561.55 23 1285.32 1305.03 1295.18 1032.75 Analytical Charts: <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-C5E2_xHkNTw/VlKCFgWzCEI/E-M/MJYHJciAoaI/s1600/HDFC%2BBK-20-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_ZZXTZSvehA/VlKCIoksVXI/E-U/xFI4VoKKIkU/s1600/HDFC%2BBK-FIBB-20-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-x7IOB1FhEds/VlKCKuKByhI/E-c/dTFXuJfVm3o/s1600/HDFC-BK-WK-20-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KbOGypjXdrk/VlKCPTPgTKI/E-k/MD9c_exVnTc/s1600/HDFC%2BBK-TL-20-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-i9zM9XVhISU/VlKCS4ewe0I/E-s/6B35J3Dk_X4/s1600/HDFC%2BBK-PATTERN-20-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R5zIt3D2gGA/VlKCVs3OaTI/E-0/QOC8JKO1o_k/s1600/HDFC%2BBK-TL-LT-20-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:23568] Fwd: Nifty Fut: Expect 8200-8400 By FY16 & 9200-9400 By FY17
Hopefully, but for professional management, you have to take some intra live advise too !! >From My Lava On Nov 22, 2015 8:02 AM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com> wrote: > Sir. evry day up and last me down ho jata he . kya expiry tak 8050+ > ayega nfty ? > > On 11/12/15, dipak panchal <dipak.197...@gmail.com> wrote: > > ji. mera position clear hote hi me apko call karunga sir. > > > > On 11/12/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> If tomorrow NF open G/D below 7750 due to the ongoing Fed drama---then > >> buy on dips with SLR<7680 (my 2-nd level of NF support) might help--- > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> On 12/11/2015 08:38 PM, Sayeeram Trikannad wrote: > >>> > >>> SGX is down 7750 > >>> > >>> On 12-Nov-2015 8:35 pm, "Asis Ghosh" <asis...@gmail.com > >>> <mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> wrote: > >>> > >>> Expect it by Monday > >>> > >>> From My Lava > >>> > >>> On Nov 12, 2015 8:29 PM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com > >>> <mailto:dipak.197...@gmail.com>> wrote: > >>> > >>> to morrow posible 7900 ? > >>> > >>> On 11/11/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com > >>> <mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> wrote: > >>> > Exp probability at around 8055-8205; SL<7680/7540 > >>> > > >>> > From My Lava > >>> > On Nov 11, 2015 9:36 PM, "dipak panchal" > >>> <dipak.197...@gmail.com <mailto:dipak.197...@gmail.com>> > wrote: > >>> > > >>> >> Sir. this expiry view in nfty ? > >>> >> > >>> >> On 11/11/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com > >>> <mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> wrote: > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > Forwarded Message > >>> >> > Subject: Nifty Fut: Expect 8200-8400 By FY16 & > >>> 9200-9400 By FY17 > >>> >> > Date: Wed, 11 Nov 2015 11:41:35 +0530 > >>> >> > From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com > >>> <mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> > >>> >> > Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com <mailto:asis...@gmail.com> > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > *For NF (Nov), 7750-7680 is big support now followed by > >>> 7540-7500 zone; > >>> >> > * > >>> >> > *Near term target 8055* > >>> >> > > >>> >> > *After Bihar "debacle", Govt's pro-active reform > >>> initiatives * > >>> >> > *& dovish RBI may help,* > >>> >> > *Despite Fed lift off "risk" in Dec'15* > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > SGX NF: 7790 (CMP) > >>> >> > > >>> >> > NSE NF: 7800 (LTP) > >>> >> > > >>> >> > Trading Levels: NF-Nov > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>> >> > For Intraday Swing Trader > >>> >> > > >>> >> > > >>>
[www.niftyviews.com:23576] Fwd: Adani Ports: 270-260 May Be A Good Buying Zone For The Time Being----
Forwarded Message Subject: Adani Ports: 270-260 May Be A Good Buying Zone For The Time Being Date: Tue, 24 Nov 2015 08:51:22 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Near term target may be 293-320* *CMP: 276* * * *Buy on dips around: 270-260* * * *TGT: 293-300-320-331 (1-6M)* * * *TGT: 375-400-430 (12-24M)* * * *TSL<255* Note: Consecutive closing below 255 for any reason, AP can fall up to 244-234-225-205 and in that scenario, it may be again accumulated for better investment buying average. Technically, now the stock may be in the 4-th Wave in daily EW pattern and the target of the same may be around 293-300-320. Some more news inputs & analytics will be cont *Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7v-bzbyu-zg/VlPU8z4JC6I/E_Q/U7cWE8_zTNc/s1600/AP-23-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DsOLIj07rL0/VlPU_Jzpk1I/E_Y/PRcMne8u9VU/s1600/AP-FIBB-23-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hDdgA3zFELY/VlPVBSwGdeI/E_g/65xMSk-ypl8/s1600/AP-WK-23-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kydn33f8ST0/VlPVFvu9BMI/E_o/yQqkOjSLjj4/s1600/AP-TL-23-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aAjeQEucAaY/VlPVKXa85YI/E_w/IRs68rYtoQc/s1600/AP-PATTERN-23-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-71wdwwzPclw/VlPVOt3uUhI/E_4/6m-bfk6YH0E/s1600/AP-EW-23-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23787] Fwd: TCS: Sustain Below 2295, May Fall Up To 2000-1825
Forwarded Message Subject:TCS: Sustain Below 2295, May Fall Up To 2000-1825 Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 08:55:58 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Q3FY16 result lags estimates in CC (USD) terms* *Impacted by seasonality & Chennai floods !!* *CMP: 2327* * * *Sell either sustain below 2295 or on rise around 2365-2385;* * * *TGT: 2295-2200-2073-2000 (1-3M)* * * *TSL>2410* *Warning Note:* *Consecutive closing above 2410 for any reason, whatsoever, TCS may rally up to 2467-2495 & 2525-2546 and 2750-2840 in the short to long term (alternative bullish case scenario).* For TCS, Q3FY16 EPS at 30.88 against consensus of 30.79 (QOQ-30.88; YOY-27.20) TCS lags CC USD revenue growth as it clocked only 0.5% on QOQ basis against analyst's expectations of 2%. Although, TCS has already issued profit warning for Q3 after Chennai floods and the scrip already corrected to some extent, technically, 2295 is a strong support area and consecutive closing below that, it may further fall towards 2200-2000 zone in the near term. In the alternative scenario, TCS need to close consecutively above 2385-2410 area for any up movement up to 2467-2546 area in the short to medium term. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters, median valuation of TCS:* (Based on consolidated TTM & FWD EPS) Present valuation may be near: 2425 (FY-16/TTM) Projected fair valuation might be around:2550-2750 (FY:17-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA TCS 120.25 256.98 20 2447.67 2392.95 2420.31 2491.1 2380.97 TCS 120.85 309.1 20 2453.77 2398.92 2426.34 2491.1 2380.97 TCS 133.95 369.25 20 2583.34 2525.59 2554.47 2491.1 2380.97 TCS 154.25 441.25 20 2772.19 2710.22 2741.21 2491.1 2380.97 *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YphJs-O2siE/VpXBcks6FYI/Fpw/XIq3WaAEiY8/s1600/TCS-12-01-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hzjHmDkAqRU/VpXBfXwYAWI/Fp4/7LbJpjJP7F0/s1600/TCS-FIBB-12-01-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sa2qNrEZ1mE/VpXBhCHJDzI/FqA/UQYlp4L__fU/s1600/TCS-WK-12-01-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0LwgAlUbp5o/VpXBlJZJBYI/FqI/5cCNRfTU3EE/s1600/TCS-PATTERN-12-01-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GsjxNV4dLs8/VpXBmLF6IoI/FqQ/aGtBWzfCq2o/s1600/TCS-TL-12-01-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AWle8yIX308/VpXBomCpo3I/FqY/LQj_jB34qcY/s1600/TCS-TL-ST-12-01-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23776] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Jan): Sustain Below 15900-780, Expect 15000 Zone In The Near Term
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty (Jan): Sustain Below 15900-780, Expect 15000 Zone In The Near Term Date: Mon, 11 Jan 2016 09:09:36 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For any recovery, BNF need to trade above 16125---* * * *Trading Levels:* BNF: 16163 (LTP) SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 16125 16255-392 16465-593 16625-705* 16830-950 17050-180 <16075 Weak < 16075 15950-915 15880-850 15780-730* 15550-390 15325-175 >16125 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 16125 16392 16593 16705* 16950 17180-250 <16075 Weak < 16075 15915 15850 15730* 15390 15175-040 >16125 *Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AWsCE7rAsVU/VpMjC_nYzaI/FoA/Pl_DkqEnv1Q/s1600/BNF-08-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_MKRxfw3nAY/VpMjE-W5hPI/FoI/ePX_JfRLEEo/s1600/BNF-FIBB-08-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dPbo_rUzCW0/VpMjHMZECwI/FoQ/XFJlt_cK6UY/s1600/BNF-WK-08-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--76pipWwr7k/VpMjJO1xNPI/FoY/wGWeCnkgapY/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-08-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24386] Fwd: Jubilant Foods: 995-975 May Be A Good Support Despite Weak SSSG & Adverse CSE Report (Another Example Of Buying Good A Business In Temporary Distress ?)
Forwarded Message Subject: Jubilant Foods: 995-975 May Be A Good Support Despite Weak SSSG & Adverse CSE Report (Another Example Of Buying Good A Business In Temporary Distress ?) Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2016 09:26:34 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: JFL* * * *CMP: 1018* * * *Either buy around 995-975 OR on dips around 945-925* * * *TGT: 1050-1095*-1130-1170-1220-1252-1315*-1372-1435*-1535 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL< 960 OR < 915* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) below 915, JFL may further fall towards 885*-840-790-745* and 675-640*-590 in the near to long term (alternative bear case scenario from the current trading level). *For JFL:* Q4FY16 TTM RPS: 17.36 (FY:16/Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 19.50-22.25-26.05 (FY:17-19/Estimated) (If there is good monsoon and growth in Indian consumption story amid 7PC.OROP induced liquidity based growth in actual consumption apart from discretionary spending) Average PE: 65 (Actual average PE 75; now trading around 53 after below expected Q4FY16 result amid fall in SSSG; historically, JFL enjoyed abnormal higher PE because of its business model, debt free BS and scarcity premium) *As par BG metrics & current market volatility:* Present median value may be around: 1165 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair value might be around: 1235-1325-1425 (FY:17-19/FWD) JUBLFOODEPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA 10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 17.36 102.03 65 1218.13 1107.76 1162.95 13151087.5 FY17/FWD19.5120.25 65 1291.03 1174.06 1232.54 13151087.5 FY18/FWD22.25 143.75 65 1379.06 1254.11 1316.59 13151087.5 FY19/FWD26.05 168.95 65 1492.19 1356.99 1424.59 13151087.5 *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Sel515_aGlQ/V1D-ODkopYI/HVs/GXFSQi8e7k0uDKdB7EeSB4DAuIhey6pHwCKgB/s1600/JFL-02-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t4UnHjKswk0/V1D-QOElG8I/HV0/VDeQel7WkJcOBSSL8TN3SlBT_DZ4UXDXwCKgB/s1600/JFL-FIBB-02-06-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YszCoqalewY/V1D-SQvbnQI/HV8/p6d0lUR-rhMC1QV_mnV1lzZcZe-moye1wCKgB/s1600/JFL-WK-02-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6W9rsFcoKZw/V1D-VPMjjuI/HWE/oXEjb2SQukQ1sWml5QvIb1EVTxWAkXx7QCKgB/s1600/JFL-TL-02-06-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iXqQc2V0UAc/V1D-XTkbpGI/HWI/ddxBJBqgftYeJqL83UbwTq9fZYChuodDACKgB/s1600/JFL-PATTERN-02-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ttrh0e0X4FM/V1D-ZVC-NzI/HWQ/MwDUSG5hGkwkZk5EP5yzmYXcXoE5-4nCgCKgB/s1600/JFL-EW-02-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24405] Fwd: Cipla: 455-435 May Be A Good Support Despite Worst Q4FY16 Result Amid Various Restructuring Costs & US FDA Woes
Forwarded Message Subject: Cipla: 455-435 May Be A Good Support Despite Worst Q4FY16 Result Amid Various Restructuring Costs & US FDA Woes Date: Tue, 7 Jun 2016 09:07:47 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: Cipla* * * *CMP: 467* *Either buy around 460-455 OR in dips around 440-430;* *TGT: 481*-515-526-538-550*-575-600*-660 (1-3/6M)* *TSL< 450 OR < 425* *Note*: Consecutive closing (3 days) below 425 for any reason, Cipla may further fall towards 410*-395 and 385-365* in the near to long term (alternative worst bear case scenario). Cipla reported a 69% fall in Q4FY16 PAT (YOY), much below analysts expectations primarily on account of fall in consolidated revenue and various one-off restructuring charges in EU and some emerging markets. Its also facing WL for its Indore plant from US FDA back in Oct'15. Cipla has around 78 ANDA(s) in the pipeline for US market and 20 to be added in FY-17 and the management is confident for a 15-20% EBITDA growth over the next three years. Considering the recession proof nature of pharma companies (defensive sector) and favourable risk reward ratio, investment buying from around 455-435 zone may not be a bad idea. *For Cipla: Consolidated* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 18.69 (FY:16/Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 21.75-24.95-28.55 (FY:17-19/Estimated) Average PE: 25 *Median Value: 467-544-624-714 (FY:16/Actual & FY:17-19/Estimated) * *As par BG metrics & current market volatility:* Present median valuation may be around: 495 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair value might be around: 535-575-615 (FY:17-19/FWD) BVPS: 134.17 Average P/BV: 4.15 *Median fair value: 557 * CIPLA EPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 18.69 134.17 25 516.79 472.26 494.52 571.58 477.32 FY17/FWD21.75 150.15 25 557.49 509.45 533.47 571.58 477.32 FY18/FWD24.95 166.85 25 597.10 545.64 571.37 571.58 477.32 FY19/FWD28.55 186.05 25 638.72 583.68 611.20 571.58 477.32 *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-48xv1uQnoKo/V1Y_D4YEx1I/HYg/krB50Wovqwoec1O0udEMbIKEt4NTJuWaACLcB/s1600/Cipla-06-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-abR-llkcMiM/V1Y_Fl7zMjI/HYo/-27NlEVRlr8pSYKvCVFb9jP4u1UFJEdmwCLcB/s1600/Cipla-FIBB-06-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Q0n6OHQNtA0/V1Y_ICm-HxI/HYw/4nGXxlWyGbIPpEifIWSf2PoMaLyzADEKACLcB/s1600/Cipla-WK-06-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sOo2mEMk_uY/V1Y_KEHYaLI/HY0/C6ddnK4AkzAap7n-ymIasMXfGV9ucJQmgCLcB/s1600/Cipla-TL-06-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1LUxts3dTn0/V1Y_MX4xLWI/HY8/ZmMUtN5MryYoqb09WgzZKONw_uoGMFBdwCLcB/s1600/Cipla-Pattern-06-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-k7gtctpVWOQ/V1Y_PMdDKBI/HZE/lWCpqVJFz8sBcFRlonRLquKQMZ0l3izCACLcB/s1600/Cipla-Pattern-MT-06-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24408] Fwd: Sun Pharma: 700-680 May Be A Good Demand Zone Despite Oil & Gas Foray By The Promoter; US FDA Resolution Of "Ghost Of Halol" May Be The Key Drivers In The Near Term
Forwarded Message Subject: Sun Pharma: 700-680 May Be A Good Demand Zone Despite Oil & Gas Foray By The Promoter; US FDA Resolution Of "Ghost Of Halol" May Be The Key Drivers In The Near Term Date: Wed, 8 Jun 2016 09:22:25 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: Sun Pharma* * * *CMP: 738* * * *Either buy around 720-710 OR in dips 690-680* * * *TGT: 780*-802-841*-871-900-965*-995-1020-1055*-1075 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL< 700 OR < 670* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) below 670 zone for any reason, Sun Pharma may further fall up to 650*-630-610-580*-555-515 & 500*-475 in the near to long term (alternative worst bear case scenario). *For Sun Pharma: Consolidated Basis* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 19.60 (Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 23.75-28.45-33.95 (FY:17-19/Estimated) Average PE: 30 Median value: 588-712-853-1018 (FY:16-19) (keeping in mind the proposed oil & gas venture by the promoter in his personal capacity-Sun Petro and US FDA issues; although worst may be over for this chapter as Indian companies are taking serious resolution to fix this "never ending" fiasco) *As par BG metrics & current market volatility:* Present median valuation may be around: 685 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair value might be around: 755-825-900 (FY:17-19/TTM) SUNPHARMA EPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA 10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 19.6106.45 30 696.50 668.93 682.72 825.03 761.01 FY17/FWD23.75 117.25 30 766.70 736.36 751.53 825.03 761.01 FY18/FWD28.45 128.95 30 839.14 805.93 822.54 825.03 761.01 FY19/FWD33.95 141.85 30 916.67 880.39 898.53 825.03 761.01 *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UIb8f1ITeUU/V1eUVFN5tmI/HZ0/pNUu5To05dEoAV3-2LeAuhBbx1EDipxwQCLcB/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-07-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aM-ZXzol1d0/V1eUYUHookI/HZ8/bNAaernBdDYMM9zHGjzWTrLvOaMq0nwdgCLcB/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-FIBB-07-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cg9jZ0M-r3Y/V1eUaokYcTI/HaA/dPo9le_pFFgvNQWvFH3mdM4HGlSBomBXwCLcB/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-WK-07-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-z3iQVHPOT0U/V1eUcy6or5I/HaI/LiLDqaE3cswUePCMuxy0kVsr_-BVsWp2gCLcB/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-TL-07-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-S29FmaFfWBY/V1eUfcpAvVI/HaQ/xz_-rGiYpf0yaLS2lL7lHXjMx_3ZbfOFwCLcB/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-Pattern-07-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wnTxLJ7t2Oo/V1eUioRo1GI/HaU/7Klyf270cfkwKVYECaFHS0IP2gnBfmxDACLcB/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-Pattern-MT-07-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24428] Fwd: Arvind:320-330 May Be A Good Hurdle
Forwarded Message Subject:Arvind:320-330 May Be A Good Hurdle Date: Fri, 10 Jun 2016 09:20:08 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: Arvind* * * *CMP: 311* * * *Either sell below 310-320 or on rise around 330-348* * * *TGT: 300*-288-278-258-245*-235 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 325 OR > 352* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 352 for any reason, Arvind may further rally up to 366*-377-388-405* & 425-435* in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level). *For Arvind (Consolidated):* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 14.04 (FY:16/Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 16.65-19.75-23.25 (FY:17-19/Estimated) Average PE: 18 Q4FY16 BVPS: 109.12 Average P/B: 2.5 Intrinsic Fair Value: 273 (FY:16/TTM) * * *As par BG metrics & current market volatility:* Present median value: 276 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair value: 300-330-355 (FY:17-19/FWD) ARVIND EPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 14.04 109.12 18 270.32 280.81 275.57 289.14 312.03 FY17/FWD16.65 119.05 18 294.37 305.80 300.09 289.14 312.03 FY18/FWD19.75 129.75 18 320.61 333.06 326.83 289.14 312.03 FY19/FWD23.25 141.55 18 347.86 361.36 354.61 289.14 312.03 *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DRdFvi5NKaM/V1o3F_GUQgI/HcQ/jOzwhhcyDLwkbM6vAfFedSLH3aPrHtJHwCKgB/s1600/Arvind-09-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Ay9v9QYQVFs/V1o3H-dtpkI/HcY/uHRR-54Dh1IOudbqaqll3FmhCUqHVx2EACKgB/s1600/Arvind-FIBB-09-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aiTMlTMUY2I/V1o3KHZ9VjI/Hcc/rn_nZ8IVh7Y8snZyuaFRITDtSI1OT_k6wCKgB/s1600/Arvind-WK-09-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hzFkE_sjJiE/V1o3NGsoFpI/Hco/EuH10kfjgCk5FGTP2DiPw__Qied47uFpgCKgB/s1600/Arvind-TL-09-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Y66k367L9Kw/V1o3PDp00MI/Hcw/F0-THWPbEvosfXazMxaRJC0OCELQQdlyQCKgB/s1600/Arvind-TL-MT-09-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Oy99DNY0YoY/V1o3RW0wauI/Hc4/Uk5mo7BOD_0oNbKuMTUfqcEDL95l7i04gCKgB/s1600/Arvind-Pattern-09-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:24324] VRL-BUY at Rs 400; Sell At Rs 250?
Buy it around 250 instead of sellinglike "buying a good business model in an unusual temporary condition/distress"--- On 25/05/2016 09:40 AM, Rajiv Handa wrote: FYI -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com <mailto:stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com>. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24335] Fwd: Tata Steel: Has To Sustain Above 340-370-385 For Any Further Rally Despite Improved Q4 EBITDA; Huge Debt & UK Pension Liability May Hurt
Forwarded Message Subject: Tata Steel: Has To Sustain Above 340-370-385 For Any Further Rally Despite Improved Q4 EBITDA; Huge Debt & UK Pension Liability May Hurt Date: Thu, 26 May 2016 09:17:20 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Levels: Tata Steel* * * *CMP: 325* * * *Either sell around 330-340-350 or on rise around 375-385;* * * *TGT: 305*-287-260-240*-220-210*-199-185 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 365-395* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 395 for any reason, Tata Steel may further rally up to 418*-445-480 & 500-535-580 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). *For Tata Steel (Standalone):* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 48.67 (FY:16/Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 37.50-43.12-49.65 (FY:17-19/Estimated) (**Q2 & Q1FY16 higher EPS was supported by one time exceptional other income) Average PE: 6 (until steel demand supply dynamics improved significantly and headwinds of UK asset sales/pension liability & huge debt headwinds are over despite MIP support). *As par BG metrics and current market parameters:* Present median value may be around: 300 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair value might be around: 265-285-305 (FY:17-19/FWD) TATASTEEL EPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA 10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 48.67 751.6 6 291.83 307.74 299.79 291.65 324.31 FY17/FWD37.5823.05 6 256.17 270.13 263.15 291.65 324.31 FY18/FWD43.12 901.95 6 274.69 289.66 282.18 291.65 324.31 FY19/FWD49.65 986.85 6 294.76 310.82 302.79 291.65 324.31 Analytical Charts: <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-78TwupH7KW0/V0ZwVzB7zyI/HQA/hRKkdzW1NvIi3zjXW92mb8s15_TPpcflgCLcB/s1600/TS-25-05-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eBcgxEqtkCE/V0ZwXq0nQ3I/HQE/tSWdoiVQvKorVDAxLDhda8YzZkKdpi9ngCLcB/s1600/TS-FIBB-25-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BS0Q_cUiafU/V0ZwZ1nKCWI/HQI/QeX6TkTIWbcG4BubSJT5OxRDrKXrNrUDACLcB/s1600/TS-WK-25-05-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q6T4u8nrntc/V0Zwd1V0IqI/HQM/dLT6CTQSiocfGDXNOJOKjYeTjWYlfjj0QCLcB/s1600/TS-TL-25-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yiRbqkggOcE/V0ZwfyYQ8JI/HQQ/34DBB0uzZ-A_VKtnIkQyttORzKUV6DzjACLcB/s1600/TS-PATTERN-25-05-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SGCwXDGyvMI/V0ZwkpyBj_I/HQU/N9ZGKOQJN2ohrYkGP5qPj7GbBJAw4eHawCLcB/s1600/TS-PATTERN-MT-25-05-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24518] Fwd: Nifty Fut (June): 8060-7940 May Give Some Interim Support Amid China's Continuing MSCI Pain And India's Gain (?) Ahead Of Fed & Brexit Drama
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut (June): 8060-7940 May Give Some Interim Support Amid China's Continuing MSCI Pain And India's Gain (?) Ahead Of Fed & Brexit Drama Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2016 08:15:04 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com SGX-NF: 8120 (CMP) NSE-NF: 8122 (LTP) *Technically, NF has to sustain above 8165-8205 zone for any strength towards 8275-8335/8350 & 8405 area. * * * *On the downside, sustain below 8060 zone, NF will fall towards 8000-7940/7920 area. Fall below 7920 may invite 7840-7775 & 7720-7675 area in the near term* Although, we may see some support of NF around 8060 area on the back of China's MSCI woes (India may be benefited for FII flows), there will be also some pressure on the market for tepid IIP and higher inflation trajectory and weak global cues (Brexit/plunging bond yields/Fed woes) and Rexit (Rajan's possible exit from RBI). Passage of GST and actual monsoon & its distribution may be also the near term triggers of the market along with trend of Q1FY17 result. Overall, technical outlook is still "Sell On Rise", until NF close consecutively above 8200 zone. *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NRitentOGsE/V2C_VVr8-jI/HgE/iNUKpsqp2Y0M47anwsWQNZWS4TUUpbwWgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-15-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cosPlqBqUSA/V2C_XiX79QI/HgM/PJOjFNQs6dECnIUHtVK1CfZF7mVTVqYZwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-15-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dduYBTIcaUE/V2C_asE1XjI/HgU/5HJXIPkLxNAAE3f2OasyDWDageAZ3sT4gCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-TL-15-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24501] Fwd: Hindalco: 120-130 May Be A Big Hurdle Despite Improving Outlook & At Around 40 PE, It May Be Quite Expensive Too !!
Forwarded Message Subject: Hindalco: 120-130 May Be A Big Hurdle Despite Improving Outlook & At Around 40 PE, It May Be Quite Expensive Too !! Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2016 09:15:28 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: Hindalco* * * *CMP: 115* * * *Either sell around 118-123 OR on rise around 130-135* * * *TGT: 109*-105-100-95-90-82*-67-58*-50-38 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 125 OR >140* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 140 for any reason, Hindalco may further rally up to 150*-158-166-177 & 192-200 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario) *For Hindalco: Standalone Basis* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 2.94 (FY-16/Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 3.45-3.95-4.55 (FY:17-19/Estimated) Average PE: 25 *As par BG metrics and current market volatility:* Present median valuation may be around: 85 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair valuation might be around: 95-100-106 (FY:17-19/FWD) HINDALCOEPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA 10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 2.94183.35 25 82.20 88.85 85.52 91.92 107.41 FY17/FWD3.45193.5 25 89.04 96.25 92.65 91.92 107.41 FY18/FWD3.95204.25 25 95.27 102.99 99.13 91.92 107.41 FY19/FWD4.55215.35 25 102.25 110.53 106.39 91.92 107.41 *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d4zFD2Dly0I/V198B7ukAOI/HfE/1TNyEM8tDPUZG-ZTsGf0kaBqGtZY0U6qQCKgB/s1600/Hindalco-wk-13-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-34zwwcpOAjw/V198EAl_YFI/HfM/ctyFRWxwD3MA293oDtiwQ2QIygNylByJwCKgB/s1600/Hindalco-FIBB-13-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Mtwg3bybWQ8/V198Gm2NHfI/HfU/_JuEIyhvnakXmWejGf4pJKlBsWX4u-hwQCKgB/s1600/Hindalco-WK-MA-13-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OLj6tkAg0zY/V198Jf1262I/Hfc/W0eyYrRpnfka3JcZuMpKoHa5zswd4k1yQCKgB/s1600/Hindalco-TL-13-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FPaWNe2bsCc/V198L87_TbI/Hfk/rLklCbug85EG6wddNeGIMWr_vdqPcRStACKgB/s1600/Hindalco-Pattern-13-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Iw3FCZ9Y6RM/V198N4BsgSI/Hfs/0alo8lg7BakYBEXzeaBGl_veg7eV3n5MwCKgB/s1600/Hindalco-EW-13-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24401] Fwd: RIL: 945-925 May Be A Good Demand Zone; Apparent Withdrawal Of Arbitration Against Govt May Help Along With Operating Leverages & Expected 4G Roll Outs
Forwarded Message Subject: RIL: 945-925 May Be A Good Demand Zone; Apparent Withdrawal Of Arbitration Against Govt May Help Along With Operating Leverages & Expected 4G Roll Outs Date: Mon, 6 Jun 2016 09:16:24 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: RIL* * * *CMP: 960* * * *Either buy above 970-995 or in dips around 945-925 OR 885-865;* * * *TGT: 1015*-1070-1095*-1150 & 1165-1215-1250*-1290-1340-1410 (1-3M & 6-12M)* * * *TSL< 905 OR < 845* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) below 845, RIL may further fall towards 815*-795-770 and 715-600 in the near to long term (alternative bear/worst case scenario). *For RIL (Standalone):* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 84.70 (FY:16/Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 97-111.15-127.25 (FY:17-19/Estimated) Average PE: 12 (Keeping in mind likely cash burn out for R-Jio for the first few years after commercial launch). *Median fair value: 1015-1165-1335-1530 (FY:16/TTM & FY:17-19/FWD; if EPS delivered as par estimates).* *As par BG metrics & current market volatility:* Current median valuation may be around: 995 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair valuation might be around: 1065-1135-1215 (FY:17-19/FWD) RELIANCEEPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA 10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 84.7667.09 12 995.15 987.15 991.15 974.34 958.74 FY17/FWD97 730.55 12 1064.96 1056.40 1060.68 974.34 958.74 FY18/FWD111.15 800.5 12 1139.99 1130.83 1135.41 974.34 958.74 FY19/FWD127.25 876.25 12 1219.76 1209.96 1214.86 974.34 958.74 *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iCn5LsmrGW8/V1Twb-qZyII/HXQ/rzr0L-NDJPwvQaB6-32zh6C_yUyIPbbLgCKgB/s1600/RIL-03-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uzpTt3sdQVw/V1Twl2HwrYI/HXY/a9h9GzO6ciY2K11oImjX2VmuDp16b3dUACKgB/s1600/RIL-FIBB-03-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rwfcmdHP5uk/V1TwnjWYGEI/HXg/UG6J6JOB71soTMsqifCWSnTCKcQTeWsrgCKgB/s1600/RIL-WK-03-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ur67MvE1N6o/V1Twpd0v4PI/HXo/ba8iiuYPbEQ084pm6hm_R-OEzFoxYYW2gCKgB/s1600/RIL-PATTERN-03-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Om8qbWIsOtg/V1Twq6BKmBI/HXs/ynygs1gukscXJVZ9RLX-HStPUU0fDYKhwCKgB/s1600/RIL-TL-03-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-B8o69Op2pjM/V1Tws5aWI2I/HX0/yRKC7fxaUvoHNkAimgfsEDI3B1iVgbY2wCKgB/s1600/RIL-EW-03-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24420] Fwd: Biocon: 750-775 May Be A Big Hurdle After 85% Rally In The Last 10 Months Amid Hopes Of Biosimilars & Supported By Exceptional Income
Forwarded Message Subject: Biocon: 750-775 May Be A Big Hurdle After 85% Rally In The Last 10 Months Amid Hopes Of Biosimilars & Supported By Exceptional Income Date: Thu, 9 Jun 2016 09:17:14 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: Biocon* *CMP: 732* *Either sell around 740-755 OR on rise around 775-790* * * *TGT: 712*-695-675-635*-609-565*-535-520-499*-575-430-410* (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 765 OR > 795* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 795 for any reason, Biocon may further rally up to 815*-840-885 & 915-935* in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level). *For Biocon: Consolidated basis* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 44.81 (FY:16/Actual; but without exceptional income, it may be around 16.05) Projected FWD EPS without any exceptional income: 18.75-21.55-24.85 (FY:17-19/Estimated) Average PE: 20 *As par BG metrics & current market volatility:* Present median value may be around: 740 (FY:16/TTM with exceptional income) Projected fair value might be around: 480-515-555 (FY:17-19/FWD without any exceptional income) BIOCON EPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 44.81 202.74 20 684.84 794.36 739.60 523.33 704.1 FY17/FWD18.75 233.75 20 443.00 513.85 478.42 523.33 704.1 FY18/FWD21.55 268.55 20 474.93 550.88 512.90 523.33 704.1 FY19/FWD24.85 308.75 20 510.00 591.56 550.78 523.33 704.1 *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yFE7QhEV9Mw/V1jlA7Yl1qI/Ha4/MmQPQvxWSBErJwEdT9X6TwigCru_rIlvwCLcB/s1600/Biocon-08-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zX3xDldM3zU/V1jlDY6w7iI/HbA/bLsS0yW8qi4zCs9zVpdeQS-HQQVtxveMwCLcB/s1600/Biocon-FIBB-08-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pSkpAl2_dmQ/V1jlF0BNmBI/HbE/2dnhFkoQ23coGXBH3QFvgm18ZMmWlYbHQCLcB/s1600/BIOCON-WK-08-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WOrS026fsek/V1jlJGsQedI/HbM/-rYX8_eC24U4jsPymvxYP8eOcl8DUTCVgCLcB/s1600/BIOCON-TL-08-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sIoKTbMANd4/V1jlLRfnO-I/HbY/92tf9j86qwM0xkkhhZQgquAI-bRsDiM2QCLcB/s1600/BIOCON-PATTERN-08-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7FwSYC7hI_I/V1jlNkNJv8I/Hbg/kDFT_XfF4jQrMgVgA4Y6SdrmmSSeFs7qgCLcB/s1600/BIOCON-EW-08-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24360] Fwd: TATAMOTORS: Need To Sustain Above 435-455 For Further Rally Despite Better Than Expected Q4FY16 Result Pushed By JLR
Forwarded Message Subject: TATAMOTORS: Need To Sustain Above 435-455 For Further Rally Despite Better Than Expected Q4FY16 Result Pushed By JLR Date: Tue, 31 May 2016 09:14:05 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: TATAMOTORS* * * *CMP: 421* * * *Either sell around 440-450 OR 475-485;* * * *TGT: 405*-385-375-360*-345-328-299-279-260*-240 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 460 OR > 495* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 495 for any reason, TM may further rally up to 515-535* and 560-595* & 615*-635 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). *For TATAMOTORS (Consolidated): * Q4FY16 EPS of TM reported as 15.33 which beat consensus EPS of 10.60 by around 45% (QOQ: 10.41; YOY: 8.43). Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 32.70 (FY:16/Actual) Earlier street estimate was at 34.15 (lagged by around 4.25%). Projected FWD EPS: 37.75-43.45-49.95 (FY:17-19/Estimates) Last 5 QTRS average EPS : 7.66 Last 5 YLY average EPS: 38.30 Average PE: 15 *As par BG metrics & current market volatility:* Present median valuation may be around: 440 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair valuation might be around: 475-510-545 (FY:17-19/FWD) TATAMOTORS EPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA 10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 32.7215.28 15 434.50 441.28 437.89 384.89 397 FY17/FWD37.75 244.45 15 466.84 474.13 470.49 384.89 397 FY18/FWD43.45 277.55 15 500.85 508.67 504.76 384.89 397 FY19/FWD49.95 314.95 15 537.01 545.39 541.20 384.89 397 *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-uxOsfgHGLTg/V00Gho9t39I/HTE/bC0XAtDIFy4RJknH3zJHegQOnRxQ9p0vwCKgB/s1600/TM-WK-30-05-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ur6KDqVehGQ/V00Gbvbn_6I/HS8/gpx1D0xHgE8XMcRGhheANM_YUJJC_giwgCKgB/s1600/TM-30-05-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TqlbY1mjUh8/V00Gd_IiHvI/HTA/_D9XITz6gYA9NKXyhUe-1EkUdjvBEHY0ACKgB/s1600/TM-FIBB-30-05-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T-FSlHXkuAU/V00Gj4TOoUI/HTI/kpMcOjXn-gQSWddHsjxFrQvQXeAaDPVCgCKgB/s1600/TM-TL-30-05-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WEk5qw7DxhM/V00GmCis_KI/HTM/Q514KQvVbUAIZonjIgngCrqPbk4cMr6YgCKgB/s1600/TM-PATTERN-30-05-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TuvpKRpR-TI/V00Go3LMYvI/HTQ/TCAUoPwMGWYRCejv_MEYwVQChGFZ0wTsQCKgB/s1600/TM-EW-30-05-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA CERTIFIED -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24370] Fwd: Ambuja Cements: 240-260 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle & At Current PE Of Around 45, May Be Quite Expensive Too Despite Growth Story Of Cement
Forwarded Message Subject: Ambuja Cements: 240-260 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle & At Current PE Of Around 45, May Be Quite Expensive Too Despite Growth Story Of Cement Date: Wed, 1 Jun 2016 09:17:47 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: Ambuja Cements* * * *CMP: 228* * * *Either sell around 235-245 OR on rise around 255-265;* * * *TGT: 224*-214-205-195-180*-170-160*-150* * * *TSL> 248 OR > 275* *Note: *Consecutive closing (3 days) above 275 for any reason, Ambuja Cements may further rally up to 287-295* & 335-350 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level). *For Ambuja Cements: As par Indian FY (APR-MAR); it maintained JAN-DEC FY* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 5.12 (Q1FY17 TTM/Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 6.75-8.85-11.25 (FY:17-19/Estimated) Average PE: 28 Last 5 yrs average PE : 25 Ideal PE should be around :25-30 (keeping in mind the expected infra spending & growth potential of cement sector). Last 5 QTRS average EPS: 1.45 Last 5 yrs average EPS: 7.95 *As par BG metrics and current market volatility:* Present fair value may be around: 180 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair value might be around: 205-235-265 (FY:17-19/FWD) AMBUJACEM EPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA 10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 5.1266.41 28 175.16 178.85 177.01 214.02 223.12 FY17/FWD6.7572.75 28 201.12 205.35 203.24 214.02 223.12 FY18/FWD8.8579.85 28 230.29 235.14 232.71 214.02 223.12 FY19/FWD11.25 87.25 28 259.65 265.11 262.38 214.02 223.12 *Analytical Charts:* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wJIIstEveZE/V05ZLKOJDEI/HTs/SXN-WyBeqyIjHPzewGeIcnTwy1gCbMqDwCKgB/s1600/Ambuja-21-05-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MbuaQRe34NM/V05ZOBTcY3I/HTw/MHdt-Ggvyuk25J10pbFuNUs_dnVVnmyiwCKgB/s1600/Ambuja-FIBB-31-05-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZJUr6b2g0RA/V05ZRLSoBdI/HT0/TTTkvVmabXQ721BK5WiJllXVmNMIo4w_gCKgB/s1600/Ambuja-WK-31-05-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dwS4Fwp180E/V05ZTAddooI/HT4/bPAVmNfc2n0SDuo9DTB3GxOsrJ5cZDS0wCKgB/s1600/Ambuja-TL-31-05-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EgEHF1gw9OI/V05ZVqtM7_I/HT8/7lk2zjpY2poRNWYZLXNc4hBTm0EwZXL7QCKgB/s1600/Ambuja-Pattern-31-05-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WA9OnPzQGRk/V05ZXtg_YqI/HUA/KZGFVVa6hwIRUajkjhs0v5tnRpzTz2GggCKgB/s1600/Ambuja-EW-31-05-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24342] Fwd: Nifty Fut(June): 8125-8185 Zone Will Be Vital For This NAMO Inspired Rally To Continue (2-nd Anniversary)
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut(June): 8125-8185 Zone Will Be Vital For This NAMO Inspired Rally To Continue (2-nd Anniversary) Date: Fri, 27 May 2016 09:13:12 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: Nifty Fut (June)* * * *SGX-NF: 8100 (CMP)* * * *NSE-NF: 8070 (LTP)* * * *Either sell around 8125-8165 OR on rise around 8210-8250;* * * *TGT: 7999*-7905-7845-7775-7690*-7655-7585-7525*-7480-7440 (5-15 days)* * * *TSL> 8185 OR > 8295* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 8185-8295 zone for any reason, NF may further rally up to 8350-8405*-8520-8685 in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level). NF made a smart rally from the vital positional support zone of 7700 almost in a T-20 style on the back of some global market "risk on", "upgrade" of Indian market from previous "downgrade" by some institutions (a gift to the nation amid NAMO-2-nd year anniversary ??), better monsoon prediction by Skymet (although delayed and probability of 87% of normal rain in June) and better than expected earnings by some of the blue chips. Now going forward, immediate drivers of the market will be Fed & RBI stance and passage of GST in the forthcoming monsoon session along with recapitalization of the PSBS amid record NPA provisions. Going by the current inflation trajectory, intensive drought situation in major parts of India and its effect on food inflation, RBI may not oblige for a 0.25% rate cut on 6-th June and may wait for actual Fed stance on 16-th June, Brexit vote outcome, actual progress & distribution of monsoon and may wait for August for any possible rate cut. It will be also very unusual for RBI to cut rates in two successive meets and instead it may focus more on the present liquidity situation and full transmission of the previous 1.50% rate cuts (as only 0.60-0.75% was transmitted by the banks so far). Although INC suffered a major set back in the recent state elections, BJP is also neither a major beneficiary of that except some consolation in Assam. BJP+ has got total seats of around 90 this time which was around 285 in the last 2014 Parliament election. Clearly, various regional political parties will influence more in the days ahead and that is also negative for the overall reform & its implementation process in our country. As of now, it will be very difficult for the Govt to pass GST in the RS without Cong's support and even if there is vote on this, it will be also difficult to gather all the other "opposition" votes to defeat Cong in the RS. Even if, GST will pass in by FY-17, its actual implementation may happen only after 2019 election as it seems that BJP/RSS too are not sure about its inflationary effect on the economy/common people because of increase in service & some other taxes. If Govt is very serious about GST, it may pass that in the last year itself by calling joint session of parliament without seeking for Cong's help. In any way, a faulty & doubtful GST is not good for our economy too !!. Regarding present ongoing Fed drama, all eyes will be on Yellen speech today & on 6-th June and Fed has a hard time to convince market that every meeting is "live" including June/July. Nobody is believing in Fed now and its credibility seems to be at stake. China credit bubble may be another serious risk for the global market in the days ahead. *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XtNTwvLjyr8/V0fAKZgaIrI/HQ0/h3JC7BY8IPICB0FyhWOz-TADeb2J8RMAgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-27-05-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NWx9PwvoZW0/V0fAMXLNUTI/HQ4/fnDSWPJeu7AWIdfOP5fr7NcW-AwkCibOACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-27-05-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NJYLlvvdgSk/V0fAO42-XGI/HQ8/OdIWoijXkIoJnBJ4nKyHgHu5hXUanL0YwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-MA-27-05-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gBMw9saY7ac/V0fAS-bqBhI/HRA/PISgtGMwsHwZAPe83GuwCWX1FBZoIq3rgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-TL-27-05-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-17XgVAfSEow/V0fAWt0XICI/HRE/RHMq_0LbupI92UOLq6Jrqo7-H3nZ97UowCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-27-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7tc7XjKqTm4/V0fAat7ennI/HRI/1gXJTqCAfGwvGnSrrmgrP-ZYW3VV3LspgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-ST-27-05-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is
[www.niftyviews.com:24374] Fwd: DLF: 135-145 May Be A Good Hurdle Despite DT Cinema Deals & Expected Stake Sale In DCCDL; Current PE Of Around 43 May Be Quite Expensive
Forwarded Message Subject: DLF: 135-145 May Be A Good Hurdle Despite DT Cinema Deals & Expected Stake Sale In DCCDL; Current PE Of Around 43 May Be Quite Expensive Date: Thu, 2 Jun 2016 09:26:59 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: DLF* * * *CMP: 133* * * *Either sell around 135-145 OR on rise around 165-175;* * * *TGT: 125*-114-109*-105-93*-85-70*-60 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 148 OR > 180* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 148-152 zone DLF may further rally up to 165-175 area, which is again a strong supply zone where fresh sales may be again initiated. Further consecutive closing (3 days) above 180, DLF may further rally up to 190-205* and 220-233* & 245*-270 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). Despite expected stake sale in DCCDL, turnaround of RE market is vital for DLF (specially in the NCR) for a positive cash flow to cover its debt (around Rs.22000 cr) servicing. *For DLF (Consolidated basis):* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 3.08 (FY:16/Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 3.45-3.85-4.30 (FY:17-19/Estimated; if there is significant turnaround in RE market) Average PE: 35 Current BVPS: 153.44 Average P/B: 0.75 Fair Value: 115 *As par BG metrics and current market volatility:* Present median valuation may be around: 115 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair value might be around: 121-128-136 (FY:17-19/FWD) DLF EPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 3.08153.44 35 112.51 117.02 114.77 117.43 127.03 FY17/FWD3.45155.65 35 119.08 123.85 121.46 117.43 127.03 FY18/FWD3.85158.15 35 125.79 130.83 128.31 117.43 127.03 FY19/FWD4.3 160.45 35 132.94 138.27 135.60 117.43 127.03 *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wqrcp0vF-ps/V0-rkn6CAGI/HUc/EEWsRGN0xf4toBf95hz5NYkKpDiyJpnBwCKgB/s1600/DLF-01-06-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SFvo-b8aGkE/V0-rmfdKolI/HUg/h6OnrFQEoJwWECQrBPLs_yCKo-wgOs7gACKgB/s1600/DLF-FIBB-01-06-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_tBw4eFpi-0/V0-roTCDSvI/HUk/fBda2xYlSf885uUAtwBcuCAeZwaEpaPtwCKgB/s1600/DLF-WK-01-06-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3-HKWgUltU4/V0-rp_cZpPI/HUo/lmLYYc2xQIACJ1OKRZtnaCZM_KqjF4YZQCKgB/s1600/DLF-TL-01-06-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kOD7jtYtNEc/V0-rsOMlCPI/HUs/lPBvYW-0apcQ8xKOeZ3ryJb5oOtuZhhfQCKgB/s1600/DLF-PATTERN-01-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iMxLEwxviXg/V0-rtxpxgHI/HUw/HisVWEsF9Z85uIvDe339jtUQQ3e7dkESgCKgB/s1600/DLF-TL-ST-01-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24354] Fwd: SBI: 205-215 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle; At Less Than 2% Recovery Of GNPA In March QTR, NPL May Be Likely To Surge Further
Forwarded Message Subject: SBI: 205-215 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle; At Less Than 2% Recovery Of GNPA In March QTR, NPL May Be Likely To Surge Further Date: Mon, 30 May 2016 08:42:03 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: SBI* * * *CMP: 196* * * *Either sell around 205-210 OR on rise around 220-225;* * * *TGT: 190*-184-174-166*-159-151-145-140*-134-125 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 215 OR > 230* * * *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 230 for any reason, SBI may further rally up to 240*-250-260* and 275-295* & 305-325*-337 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). *For SBI (Standalone):* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 12.98 (FY:16/Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 15.05-17.50-19.95 (FY:17-19/Estimated) Last five years average EPS is around 16.60. Average PE: 12 As par BG metrics and current market volatility: Present median valuation may be around: 175 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair value might be around: 190-202-215 (FY:17-19/FWD) Present BVPS: 178.31 Average PB: 1.15 Present fair value: 205 SBINEPS BV P/E Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 12.98 178.31 12 180.46 167.12 173.79 209.07 179.3 FY17/FWD15.05 196.25 12 194.31 179.95 187.13 209.07 179.3 FY18/FWD17.5215.95 12 209.53 194.04 201.79 209.07 179.3 FY19/FWD19.95 237.55 12 223.72 207.18 215.45 209.07 179.3 The above incremental growth in EPS is assumed keeping in mind that the stressed assets of SBI may be at its peak at around 6.5% GNPA (Rs.98172.80) of total loan book of around Rs.1509500 cr. In Q4FY16, the total watch list (doubtful loans) is around Rs.61663 cr and as par the management, 70-30% may be turned into future NPA, depending upon the actual economic recovery in India. Even if, 50% of that turned sour, it may translate another GNPA of around Rs.30830 cr and total GNPA figure may touch around Rs.13 cr in the coming quarters. SBI reported a loan recovery of Rs.1724 cr (actual recovery 1627 cr & upgradation of 97 cr) in March quarter despite all the efforts and its around 1.76% of GNPA amount. On the other side, the bank added around 4% of total loan book into fresh NPL/watch list; i.e. total stressed assets for SBI may stands now around 10.5% of the loan book. As par various reports, PSBS may have around 15% stressed assets on an average (depending upon the size of the bank/loan book) and SBI may not be an exception. Now the big question is pace of recovery of our economy and NPAS of the banking system. If there is uneven or tepid recovery in the real economy, then a substantial portion of the present "standard assets" may also fall into future NPAS. Along with the recovery of economy, some more cuts of the repo rate to a competitive level with other advanced economies is necessary along with full rate cut transmission benefits to the borrowers, specially MSME & corporates. They should get fund from the Indian banking system at around 4-6% instead of present 10-12% and can compete with their global peers in a viable way. As long as we do not have competitive global bank interest rate and our real rate of interest is high, doing business in India with Indian bank funds may not be viable and the present NPA mess may also be continued. But for drastic cut in repo rate, current inflation trajectory may not be supportive (specially for food and FMCG and house rent/school fees etc affecting the common people) and structural reform by the Govt is necessary apart from RBI. In Q4FY16, actual EPS of SBI was reported as 1.63 against street estimates of 2.47 (lagged by over 34%). Although SBI has reported EBITDA/NII better than consensus, it came on the back of other income and its core banking operations is not very bright apart from retail banking. *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VqO0D-PdnXQ/V0urGVLQyOI/HRo/3O8bHqTK8MALJRsVGLxGWPA7zxXG7hvAwCKgB/s1600/SBI-27-05-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bDxcitbxAfE/V0urId-hwrI/HRs/dzegGbsoCpsu_ff65zT80H3gR2chKDLywCKgB/s1600/SBI-FIBB-27-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CAGxA6yp7vQ/V0urKJki0ZI/HRw/ZoSEWb0H0UA3Uh8RZtG40ZGhHSVNqyUrwCKgB/s1600/SBI-WK-27-05-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qyXizHESo8Q/V0urQug5EdI/HR0/fhi91nCpElUpzrxA0U5DAie4Oc4dVaBcwCKgB/s1600/SBI-PATTERN-MT-27-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BuAP9ZpzJYg/V0urSuXD3dI/HR4/thoeNRuNUKkEcXeJVUx0YWHdYizZh9M9QCKgB/s1600/SBI-TL-27-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-c4qrekGO7P0/V0urU9G7e2I/HR8/u_3bc_T_iN0pf0Ar-FMpcvVgvfi4v30gACKgB/s1600/SBI-PATTERN-27-05-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email st
[www.niftyviews.com:24567] Fwd: Nifty & Bank Nifty (Fut): Combination Of Rexit & Fears Of Brexit Can Be Fatal--Nifty May Fall Towards 7525-7295 In The Days Ahead
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty & Bank Nifty (Fut): Combination Of Rexit & Fears Of Brexit Can Be Fatal--Nifty May Fall Towards 7525-7295 In The Days Ahead Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2016 06:16:12 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com In a surprised move just ahead of Brexit referendum, Rajan made it clear on Saturday afternoon that he is not interested for a 2-nd term as RBI Gov. Though it was not unexpected at all, the timing of the same my be quite unexpected for our market and may jolt the confidence of institutional investors, specially FPIS and there may be massive outflow from the bond market, INR may depreciate quite significantly and ultimately there may be also significant downtrend in the equity market in the near term. *Technically, looking at the chart: * *USDINR-I (LTP: 67.17) may rally towards 68.25-69.50 & 70.05-72.80 levels in the near to mid term. * *Consequently, NF-I (LTP:8163) may fall towards 8000-7675 & 7525-7295 zone in the near to short term.* *Similarly, BNF-I (LTP: 17690) may fall towards 17300-16300 & 15900-15200 in the near to short term.* The political game behind this "untimely Rexit" may be also an indication that Govt is not serious about maintaining integrity & professionalism of an institution like RBI and may be more interested to appoint an "Yes man" as RBI Gov. There may be debate about Rajan's (RBI) policy, but personal attack and black lashing by SS & Co is not at all desirable. The total game plan may also be an indication that SS is not alone and without active/passive support of higher leaderships of BJP/RSS it was not possible and PM's silence about it may be another point also. There may be other "suitable" person for RBI Gov post and the same policy may continue, but it will be very difficult for the FPIS to have the same "trust" as on Rajan, at least in the short to medium term. India may be one of the few stable economies and democratic countries in the world today which offer substantial bond yields (10Y: 7.5% at present) in the age of ZIRP/NIRP. As Rajan is not a believer/supporter of "Helicopter Money" (QQE) and does not believe in the game of competitive currency devaluation, institutional investors/FPIS has tremendous trust on him & INR. So, any significant deviation from the current "hawkish" stance may result in massive sell in the bond markets and subsequent weakening of INR and EQ market sell off too. Its almost certain that after tomorrow's early gap down opening of Nifty (as par SGX level), there may be massive "buying support"/short covering by some of the institutions on the back drop of "easing of fear" about Brexit as the referendum may be also postponed. As par some reports, there is growing online petition against this vote scheduled on 23-rd June and instead of a public vote (referendum), UK parliament may debate and vote it in due course of time, though it may be too later now. If that happen (no Brexit referendum), then we may see some relief rally globally and locally also. Even if Brexit referendum took place (because its now may be too late to postpone it) and "leave" votes outnumbered "remain", after initial whipsaw movement, we may see also some relief rally as UK will not "leave" EU ultimately and any Brexit referendum, will force EU to offer "better package" to UK for "remain" in EU. After this "Brexit Drama", market will concentrate on other real issues such as Fed stance, BOJ/Yen appreciation and China Yuan devaluation and growing credit bubbles, possibility of another US/EU recession. Nifty may also found some "buying support" on the perception that "Rexit" may pave the way for more quick rate cuts. But, considering the present inflationary uptrend trajectory and rate differential between USD & INR, any dramatic rate cut may also be counterproductive and may be viewed as Govt is acting in "panic" and this may also help to loose the trust of the FPIS more quick. At the end of the day, this dramatic "Rexit" may be also an indication that India is not so much changed in its "political game of football" despite massive "marketing initiatives" by the NAMO Govt and this may be one of the reasons for the FPIS, who will be not so much "amused" in the months ahead. Also, the recent state elections may be also an indication that there is growing influence of the regional political parties rather than the two main central political party (BJP & CONG) and that may be more counterproductive in the years ahead in 2019 election. There may also be a doubt about BJP/RSS's real intention/seriousness about passage of GST and its actual implemen
[www.niftyviews.com:24606] Fwd: Nifty Settles Almost Flat (-0.28%) Amid Brexit Fears & Pessimistic/Cautious Fed
Forwarded Message
Subject: Nifty Settles Almost Flat (-0.28%) Amid Brexit Fears &
Pessimistic/Cautious Fed
Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2016 06:17:26 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
Nifty Fut (June) closed around 8202 after making a low of 8154 and high
of 8253 today.
*Technically, NF has to sustain above 8280-8295 for target of 8335-8350
& 8410-8510 in the near term (in the event of Bremain)*
*
*
*On the downside, sustain below 8180-8140, NF will target 8110-8060 &
7995-7860 and 7780-7695 by the next few trading sessions (in the event
of Brexit).*
Although, most of the polls in UK indicating "Bremain" by over 6%
majority, this is may not be a foregone conclusion. Yesterday, there was
some "big" TV debate in Wembley Stadium (UK) and majority of the
audience mood was in favour of "Brexit".
Market is quite confident that "Remain" vote will outnumber "Leave" as
majority of the undecided voters and even the current "Brexit"
supporters will vote for stability ("Bremain") on the D-Day.
Still there is some element of uncertainty in this "Brexit" drama and
market does not like such "uncertainty". Now, as on day, the price
action suggests that market may have already discounted the "Bremain"
scenario by a great extent and we may see only 3-5% rally across the
risk assets classes.
On the other side, in the terrible scenario of "Brexit", market may sold
off by around 10-20% over the next few days as it is not priced in or
prepared for that scenario. As par various reports, FTSE can fall by
around 20%, Stoxx-500 by around 25%, S by around 10% in the "dooms
day" scenario of "Brexit", similar to 2008 Lehman Brothers shock.
We personally feel that "Brexit" will not happen and after "Bremain", we
may see some relief rally across various "risk" & commodity assets; but
precious metals may fall and Gold may dip to 1200-1180 level as appeal
of "hard assets" will loose to some extent after this "Brexit" anxiety
is over.
Yesterday's Yellen testimony/script has nothing new, but Fed is clearly
concerned about US growth and "Brexit" event. Market now looking for US
growth & confidence Fed rather than any rate pause action by Yellen.
After all, there is no visible growth in G-3 universe (US/EU/Japan)
despite so much QQE over the last decade or so and more over, its the
"easy helicopter money" which may be responsible for the present
mismatch in supply demand dynamics of certain commodities like oil,steel
and may cause next wave of crisis until there is a significant
re-balancing. If the major central bankers will indulge in continuation
of such "helicopter money", productions & supplies of various
commodities will be increased, while there may not be any significant
increase in the corresponding demand without any structural reform. This
will cause a significant credit defaults and banking crisis.
Apart from the global issues, our market was under some pressure today
as Subaramanian Swamy strikes again and this time against CEA Arvind
Subramanian, accusing him as an "American Agent" too !!.
Though market was relieved to some extent after FM stated that BJP/Govt
is not sharing the comments of SS and its his personal view. But, again
this was the same case with "Rexit" and clearly SS could not make this
adverse comment about an important Govt policy maker and eminent
economist like AS without active/passive support of top leaders of BJP/RSS.
Thus, if SS continues his attack on AS like he did on Rajan, it may also
be very difficult for AS to "stay in India" too !! There are also some
market reports that SS may be the chosen as the next RBI Gov or FM and
that's why the internal politics of BJP/RSS is playing this game of
football. If this happens, then it may be a big negative for our market,
at least in the short term.
Announcement of the name of next RBI Gov (Urjit Patel/Arundhati
Bhattacharya/Subramanian Swamy) before monsoon session of Parliament,
passage of GST, full implementation of 7PC & its liquidity oriented
consumption demand, visibility of continuous economic recovery, success
of telecom auction. PSBS mergers and NPA recovery may be some of the
triggers for our market in the coming days.
Today, there was some report from UNCTAD that FDI to India may cross $60
bln on the back of favourable policy environments and fresh green field
projects in manufacturing sector.
Notably, today Govt/cabinet cleared the textile policy to boost the
sector, but the textile companies retraced to some extent as it was
already priced in yesterday itself and this may be another example of
"Buy the rumour and sell the news&qu
[www.niftyviews.com:24607] Fwd: GBPUSD: What's The Chart Is Saying Amid Confusion Of "Brexit/Bremain" ?
Forwarded Message Subject: GBPUSD: What's The Chart Is Saying Amid Confusion Of "Brexit/Bremain" ? Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2016 07:36:42 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *GBPUSD: 1.4812 (CMP)* * * *Sell around 1.49-1.51* * * *TGT: 1.45-1.40*-1.35-1.30 (5-15 days & 3-6 months)* * * *TSL> 1.5150 OR > 1.5250* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1.5250 for any reason, GBPUSD may further rally up to 1.56-1.62*-1.65 & 1.72 zone in the near to mid term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level). After the last week's tragic incident, though the "Remain" camp was getting some edge, the "leave" side is now apparently getting some traction after yesterday's Wembley TV debate. Till few hours ago, various combinations & permutations of opinion poll still have "remain" camp leading by around 5%, after last night's two polls, which highlighted "leave" campaign leading by 1%. Rainy weather is another factor for the "soft minded" "remain" & "neutral/undecided" voters to go ahead out to cast their votes. As of now various betting side also indicating almost 75% of implied probability of "Bremain". But, going by the price action, this higher probability of "Bremain" may be discounted to a large extent and except some whipsaw movement for about 6 hours after the favourable result, sellers may creep in after US opens. Considering the risk/reward ratio, this may be again turned into another example of "Buy the rumour and sell the news". *Among all these "Brexit" drama, UK has fulfilled its objective to devalue its currency (GBP) without any "helicopter money". Its a great idea of another form of "QQE". * *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MOB1CTqiCX8/V2tCaxrjHjI/Hkw/59rgM839rMwtR296zCI8helC2uiOGP5XwCLcB/s1600/GBPUSD-23-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IjezjDtfQBE/V2tCdW3wz0I/Hk4/h00BcOXSn4AWuWPMOsNdnKulnoV3yO3uQCLcB/s1600/GBPUSD-FIBB-23-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4VBdawXNSlY/V2tCf8-uHKI/Hk8/8fe2QObLWssPRFuE9PhMBWWYqPkfo8fbgCLcB/s1600/GBPUSD-WK-23-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lz-ooEQlFRk/V2tCi4OOC1I/HlI/_UlBQ6Kv4MUS9C18RxG3k9dXb_zXIVqwwCLcB/s1600/GBPUSD-PATTERN-23-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xaWaR45rRFI/V2tCmDDhxcI/HlQ/MDF52dhubD85VXmshIPL7dNpt6H8ujPSACLcB/s1600/GBPUSD-TL-23-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EifFjXIhDow/V2tCpAG5w4I/HlU/ApFkD-gY6mYfTzuUtkmYu1H3kDkMZbA9wCLcB/s1600/GBPUSD-TL-ST-23-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24578] Fwd: Bank Nifty Fut(June): 17300-17100 Zone Is Vital For Stability After "Rexit" Amid Confusion Of "Brexit/Bremain"
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty Fut(June): 17300-17100 Zone Is Vital For Stability After "Rexit" Amid Confusion Of "Brexit/Bremain" Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2016 07:26:11 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *BNF: 17715 (LTP)* * * *Sell around 17800-18000* OR on rise around 18200-18400;* * * *TGT: 17240*-17000-16800-16600-16300*-16000-15800-15700*-15500-15200*-14900-14600 (5-15 days)* * * *TSL> 18100 OR > 18500* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 18500 for any reason, BNF may further rally up to 18600*-19200-19600 in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level). After yesterday's institution supported market following "Rexit", we may see real concern and price action in the coming days. Also, going by the price action of global risk assets and recent rally of GBPUSD (CMP:1.4650), "Beremain" may be already priced in to a great extent. SPF yesterday was not able to sustain above 2100 zone and that may be an indication that market is quite anxious about "Brexit" referendum to be scheduled on 23-rd June. After this "Brexit" drama, all eyes will be shifted to Fed, US economy and China again and today's Yellen testimony may provide some cues about thinking of Fed about the "strength" of the US economy. In the event of "Beremain", concern of Fed about disorderly market for "Brexit" will reduce and implied rate hike probability in Sep'16 may increase quite dramatically; although chances of any Fed hike just before US election is quite low, but market may also focus on inherent strength of US economy and next US president & any drastic change in Fed's stance going ahead. *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OVScKwOKBHk/V2ic9Yqo6aI/HjE/_gz6USTIaP4ibmxkjYoreT_1MlAH5Q0AACLcB/s1600/BNF-20-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4cbK2TfKWKQ/V2idA9rPgdI/HjM/10_k9r70gMwmIH1V6KVZ5hRHcJ-K-dYCwCLcB/s1600/BNF-FIBB-20-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cQPg0bXIYPs/V2idJ42rosI/HjU/w5UZpR2MSAY79GDchllEEX4QBVK9fTxGgCLcB/s1600/BNF-WK-20-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6xo-39LuhBw/V2idNB-AtnI/Hjc/GaT4W5IlbQ8PFz7dYW9O6rrx7YOxFvQ0ACLcB/s1600/BNF-TL-20-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--rbU0GHkYD0/V2idRZSn6II/Hjk/Xw1h9inTDw8FlzhndT3mscQXHjsZucGrwCLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-20-06-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DJ1PTmv88Mk/V2idTjpd0cI/Hjs/tx1-lJBGOyoFoMokmVEwrbx32x0Bw1tSQCLcB/s1600/BNF-EW-20-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24624] Fwd: Black Friday: But Nifty Recovered Quite Smartly After "Brexit" Jitters Amid BOE & RBI Assurances And Closed The Week 1.2% Lower
Forwarded Message Subject: Black Friday: But Nifty Recovered Quite Smartly After "Brexit" Jitters Amid BOE & RBI Assurances And Closed The Week 1.2% Lower Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2016 18:23:14 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Nifty Fut (June) made a opening high of 8125 today (gap down by 157 points) and closed around 8075 after made a low of 7927 amid unexpected "Brexit jitters". *Looking ahead, technically, NF has to sustain above 8105-8145 for an immediate target of 8180-8215 and 8295-8335 zone.* ** *On the flip side, sustaining below 8060-8000 zone, NF may again fall towards 7925-7870 & 7780-7710 and 7610-7525 area in the near term.* The market recovered quite smartly today after EU spot market opened and BOE (Bank Of England) Gov Carney's pledge of liquidity support along with ECB's & BOJ's renewed commitment of unlimited QQE. Also, ECB started fresh round of another LTRO. Meanwhile, our own RBI Gov (Rajan) who is also termed as "Rock star of Dalal Street" also kept his cool about this whole "Brexit" event and assured the market for any type of appropriate liquidity support to avert the imminent crisis. Rajan also commented that "Sun does not fall from the sky" as of now for this "Brexit" referendum alone & there will be prolonged negotiations between UK & various stake holders in the next two years before any actual "Brexit". This is very true as market will keenly watch the developments of any "Real Brexit" and I personally doubt, it will really happen at all. Eventually, UK will be offered much more better terms & deal to "stay" in EU at any cost, because in the scenario of real exit of Britain from EU may open a Pandora's box and many more EU countries will be in the line for similar referendum of "Leave" or "Remain", which will have a catastrophic effect on the whole concept of "EURO" itself and will proved to be a "failed idea". But there will be ample uncertainties during next two years of negotiations between UK & EU and market does not like any prolonged uncertainty. Subsequently many Indian companies who has considerable business & manpower in UK may be also affected to a great extent. There are also some talk of central bankers intervention in the market today (SNB/BOJ) to stabilize the market and G7 central bankers may also take some co-ordinated monetary action for an "orderly" market. Its almost sure that there will be some stability/bounce back of the market in the next few days after the initial dust settles, but this effect of "Brexit" will be a long one. As UK PM Cameron will step down, it may be much more difficult for the new PM to deal with the EU despite the fact that resignation of the UK PM by Oct will delay the "Real Brexit" as its the new PM will will now do the "next process". Among all the global markets, India outperformed the others quite smartly today as it fall by around 4% against 8-10% for others (at lowest point of the day). Some of the reasons for this out-performance despite fatal combination of "Rexit" & "Brexit" may be: 1. Strong DII support unlike the era of 2008; Govt is also getting some big FII support too in time of such abnormal situation in the market. 2. Strong domestic consumption story of Indian economy and less reliance on export. But, most of the Nifty companies are related to global market also. 3. Comparatively less FII flow dependent from EU. 4. Fall in oil & other commodities are helpful for Indian economy. 5. Stable macros for Indian economy. Going forward, BOE may cut by 0.25% in Aug or before, Fed will postpone any Sep'16 hike plan because of this "Brexit" excuse (actually may never hike again!), but there will renewed concern about China & US slow down and Yuan devaluation. But despite all the factors, its almost certain that there will be huge volatility in the global as well as Indian market in the months ahead and as a trader or investor, we should take this volatility as an opportunity and as such technical levels might help us quite a lot as price discounted everything. So, stay tuned and have a great weekend <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7HJegqjupXQ/V20qLJpGaTI/HmI/EC3j1KOmRkUMzQJVobjGHpq9XPjtfaaxQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-24-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VFIkWZhh8vE/V20qNxiSc5I/HmQ/vZNQQhYhMOM2reUxfvX9exO3sKQD7yUUACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-24-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EeMEeMwgyww/V20qRPSdpfI/HmY/928OyQnoD_45GjWeRAhq-yOLyCCaghv8gCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-24-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
[www.niftyviews.com:24547] Fwd: Nifty Fut (June): Need To Sustain Over 8260-8295 For Any Type Of Relief Rally Amid Talk Of "Brexit Referendum Postponement"
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut (June): Need To Sustain Over 8260-8295 For Any Type Of Relief Rally Amid Talk Of "Brexit Referendum Postponement" Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2016 08:57:58 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: NSE-NF* * * *SGX-NF: 8212 (CMP)* * * *NSE-NF: 8153 (LTP)* * * *Sell on rise around 8260-8295 OR 8335-8355 OR 8410-8430* * * *TGT: 8150*-8105-8060*-8035-7950-7820-7780-7675-7595-7525-7410-7295 (5-15 days)* * * *TSL> 8320 OR > 8375 OR > 8475* *Note:* Consecutive closing above (3 days) 8335 zone for any reason, NF may further rally towards 8410-8475* and 8690-8910 zone in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level). Till yesterday evening there was virtually "risk off" trade on the global front as a result of confused and not so confident Fed, some BOJ hawkish stance & the Brexit fear. Global market dramatically went into "risk on" mode again in the late night after sad assassination of a pro-EU British MP and an unconfirmed market talk that in this terrible scenerio, Brexit referendum may be put off and all types of campaigns will be hold until the vote on 23-rd June (??). But its not confirmed that the attacker was indeed shouted "Britain Only" at the time of this terrible incident and it was related to his Brexit drama at all, but the implied probability of the "remain" scenario increased dramatically as a result of this sad incident. But, on the other side, if there is no Brexit,then market will concentrate on the other real issues and probability of hawkish Fed may return again in July-Sep'16. Apart from this, concern over China jitters may again be in the forefront amid continuous Yuan devaluation and debt bubble. *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2vZ1iamN6QQ/V2Ngrx2OVwI/HhI/yk-fq7G7L9QM-cyiGLTPqkOyRfZIPNiPACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-17-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-t3p8C07ZXkQ/V2NiECFKYcI/HhY/Hsi48zCBeHA8RjO3rfQjE36WjDWb6e3WgCLcB/s1600/NF-TL-16-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uMH9EuVzySE/V2NgQEAQNgI/Hg4/WUmZzUSXA5Ijq8umDwY20gpDSCpY1nDHACKgB/s1600/SGX-NF-17-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24619] Fwd: Market Wrap: Nifty "Surged" By Around 1% As UK Poll Started Amid Hopes Of "Bremain"
Forwarded Message Subject: Market Wrap: Nifty "Surged" By Around 1% As UK Poll Started Amid Hopes Of "Bremain" Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2016 06:18:10 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Today Nifty Fut (June) opened cautiously and gained momentum after Europe market opens and the latest pre-voting poll indicated 48% for "Leave" against 52% for "Remain". Another betting portal also confirmed that there is 74% probability of the "Bremain". In any way, this"Brexit" episode may encourage some other EU nations to go for such referendum in future and this may be marked as a precedent. NF made a low of around 8190 after opening at 8206 and surged to the high of 8307 before settling the day around 8289. *Looking ahead, NF has to sustain over 8335-8375 zone for 8410-8510 in the scenario of "Bremain".* *On the other side, sustaining below 8260, NF will loose some of its strength and will fall towards 8190-8140 and below that 8060-7980 & 7870-7780-7695 area in the "horror" scenario of "Brexit".* One point is that market is not prepared for "Brexit" and already discounted the likely scenario of "Bremain" by a large extent. So, it may be another example of "Buy the rumour and sell the news" event. Also the bond market rallied today on the back of good demand from corporate buyers and this also supported our market. At 8400-8500 Nifty in the "Bremain" scenario, PE of our market will be well above 23 and historically 23-24 PE always invite heavy long profit booking. Thus, we should maintain technical level more closely to avoid buying around the recent highest point. *Some of the scrips, which moved the market today:* 1. Tata Motors gained in the hope of "Bremain". 2. Yes bank gained to life time high today after fund raising plan (QIP). 3. Sun Pharma gained after report of "buy back" of its shares. 4. RCOM gained after ICRA upgraded its debt ratings and imminent merger talks with Aircel. The company will also start 4G services shortly by using R-Jio's network. 5. Lupin gained after it got some ANDA approval from US FDA. 6. NTPC fall today after reports that it will offer 5% of its stake to its employees at 5% discount (which may dilute its EPS). <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nVJ00xibLwQ/V2yBkr61R7I/Hl0/MS1nhWD0uhMkURgvMOdmZ9bbYgianwudgCLcB/s1600/NF-PATTERN-23-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23797] Fwd: Market Mantra: Indian & Global Market Update
Forwarded Message Subject:Market Mantra: Indian & Global Market Update Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 09:08:21 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For NF, 7425-7325 & for SPF, 1875-1850 zone may be the bottom for the time being * SGX NF: 7460 (CMP) NSE NF: 7572 (LTP) As par early SGX indication, NSE NF may open around 7460 after US market cracked by over 2% overnight. After yesterday's "soothing & above expected" China trade data, global market (US/EU) showed some sign of stabilization/dead cat bounce initially, but after US traders jumps in, the market got a thought of "highly manipulated" China trade data probably managed/messaged by the authorities to calm down the market as the trade data is actually (-)4.9% YOY EX Hong Kong. Along this with continuing Oil woes, global market tanked. *For NF, technically, 7425-7400 zone is now strong support and below that came 7325. As par EW cycle, for NF, 7425-7325 may be the low for the time being. Consecutive closing below 7325, for any reason, NF may further goes down towards 7240-6900 area in the near term.* *On the other hand, NF need to settle consecutively above 7560 (for NS its 7540) for an immediate target of 7605-7650. In the near term, NF need to sustain above 7650-7675 area for any change in trend and in that scenario, it may rally up to 7715-7785 in the next cycle under normal scenario. * For NF, any further movement above 8000-8200, we may need some structural improvement in both global (China jitters & Oil woes) and domestic issues. Hope of dream/good budget and GST in forthcoming budget session of Parliament may give some support to our market, but tepid earnings might be a great concern. Also, with the forthcoming state elections and fiscal constraints, scope of "dream" budget may be limited and Govt may indulge in some sort of popularism/social welfare spending. Thus, 8000-8200 zone may be tough for the NF to conquer in 2016 which was the base for large part of 2015. The new base for 2016 may be 7400-7300 & 6900. *If China & Oil deteriorates further and there is not any significant structural improvement or reforms (for India), 6300 for NF can't be ruled out too, from where this "hope rally" actually started.* *For, S Fut (CMP:1884), trend change only happens sustaining above 1920-1965 zone and in that scenario, 1992-2030-2045-2075 may be the target. * *On the downside, consecutive closing below 1920, it may fall up to 1875 (already achieved) & 1860-1850 and below that 1825-1805 may be the target in the near term. * *For BNF (CMP: 15854), immediate support is around 15500 & below that 15390 may be the bottom for the time being. Sustain below 15390 for any reason, target may be up to 15175-15000 & 14600 area in the near term.* *For any trend change, BNF need to close consecutively above 15780-15915 zone for an near term target of 16050-16125-16255-16350 in the short term.* *Analytical Charts: * <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3I0TROBu3Uc/VpcVSrageiI/Fqw/MBjDj9XF1So/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-14-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bEmSQYo2Eyg/VpcVUqHvOHI/Fq4/GOP8S9I0b-Q/s1600/S%2526P-500-PATTERN-LT-14-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HXMHtiFHcmk/VpcVY4eQnzI/FrA/H2TJ2X3jrg8/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-13-01-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA CERTIFIED -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23809] Fwd: Nifty Fut (Jan): 7425-7325 Zone May Be The Bottom For The Time Being
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut (Jan): 7425-7325 Zone May Be The Bottom For The Time Being Date: Mon, 18 Jan 2016 09:03:36 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com * NF has to sustain at least 7560-7650 for 7850-8000 in the near term* Trading Levels: SGX NF: 7425 (CMP) NSE NF: 7443 (LTP) *Either buy around 7400 with TSL<7380 * *Or in dips around 7325 with TSL<7300* * * *TGT: 7485/7510-7560/7585*-7620/7675*-7705/7761-7800/7850** Time frame: 5-10 trading days/Exp SL=(+/-) 10 points from TSL *Alternative bearish scenario:* *Consecutive below 7300 for any reason, NF may further fall towards 7240-7135 & 7000-6900 zone in the near term.* *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-s0m1fCa_PM0/Vpxbm8Y84NI/FtU/eGWmlfGdw4w/s1600/SGX-NF-18-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zDKWYFFtiUY/Vpxbp-VjCpI/Ftc/2TLi29cPjKg/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-18-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iklMUqvbpz4/VpxbsquWGBI/Ftk/n2vw5umVvxI/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-MT-18-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23800] Fwd: Infy: Has To Sustain Abv 1170 For 1225-1285-1350-1400 in FY:16-17
Forwarded Message Subject:Infy: Has To Sustain Abv 1170 For 1225-1285-1350-1400 in FY:16-17 Date: Fri, 15 Jan 2016 09:39:27 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Above expected Q3FY16 result may be largely discounted by the market *CMP: 1133* * * *Either sell below 1110-1095 or on rise around 1160-1170;* * * *TGT: 1075-1047-1030*-1011-996 (1-3M)* * * *TSL>1190* Warning Note: Consecutive closing above 1190 for any reason, Infy may further rally up to 1225-1285-1350-1400 in the near term. To be cont for some more analytical inputs--- *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* (Based on consolidated TTM & FWD EPS) Current median valuation of Infy may be around: 1120 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 1200-1280 (FY:17-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA INFY56.84 220.89 20 1101.50 1105.88 1103.69 1067.3 1075.81 INFY59.75 260.45 20 1129.35 1133.84 1131.59 1067.3 1075.81 INFY66.75 305.95 20 1193.67 1198.42 1196.04 1067.3 1075.81 INFY75.95 360.65 20 *1273.27* 1278.34 1275.81 1067.3 1075.81 Analytical Charts: <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wYx3PxlRw7U/VphnxifirxI/FrU/xmgRzSb_vYM/s1600/Infy-14-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Jt1QqQmPnk0/Vphn2uHn7YI/Frc/TP0HGPmMZ8g/s1600/Infy-wk-14-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wrHoFWLW3I8/Vphn5y72M_I/Frk/X9OYW6uWmwM/s1600/Infy-FIBB-14-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FMZ9ZrLWX30/Vphn-M_sMQI/Frs/ClDZ3hyieBc/s1600/Infy-TL-14-01-2016%2527.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kXq7TVLIGbk/VphoB5wt_uI/Fr0/9tKKbaIhExk/s1600/Infy-Pattern-14-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TCH5v6TUf5w/VphoGOWI2zI/Fr8/yrk5_D8Nx_o/s1600/Infy-TL-MT-14-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23817] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Jan): 14800-14600 May Be The Bottom For The Time Being
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty (Jan): 14800-14600 May Be The Bottom For The Time Being Date: Tue, 19 Jan 2016 09:04:23 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For, BNF 16300-17100 may be the hurdle in 2016* *Trading levels (BNF-Jan):* LTP: 15075 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 14950 15030-175 15280-380* 15455-550 15860-995 16205-300 <14900 Weak < 14900 14850-800 14750-670 14550-425 14325-250 14000-945 >14950 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 14950 15175 15380* 15550 15995 16300 <14900 Weak < 14900 14800 14670* 14425 14250 13945 >14950 Note: SL=(+/-) 25 points from SLR *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6pYCN-7bYtQ/Vp2tfyOrguI/FuE/r2VXZoUCck0/s1600/BNF-WK-18-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AUWmPV_3_vk/Vp2thBJIYCI/FuM/zBRFumGJFYM/s1600/BNF-FIBB-18-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Wxm9K62vxVo/Vp2tiweDM6I/FuU/Xh7XSnFwamg/s1600/BNF-WK-MA-18-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OjFHMh7wJrU/Vp2tkfeu38I/Fuc/f_Bnq0WMTYA/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-18-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8zkfFOT9ibk/Vp2tmlzdYeI/Fuk/gw3jTbx-tmA/s1600/BNF-TL-18-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-abrBRzyQ_60/Vp2toK5F7QI/Fus/0ByfB4MoSss/s1600/BNF-EW-18-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24640] Fwd: Nifty Settled Flat, But Below 10DEMA (8155) Amid Political Turmoil In UK/Brexit And Hopes Of Extended Monsoon & GST
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Settled Flat, But Below 10DEMA (8155) Amid Political Turmoil In UK/Brexit And Hopes Of Extended Monsoon & GST Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2016 06:29:29 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Nifty Fut(June) closed the day around 8104 after making an opening low of 8048 and high of around 8130. *Looking the the technical chart, NF need to close above at least 8155-8200 zone for an immediate target of 8335-8350 & 8410-8510 area.* *On the flip side, consecutive closing below 8075-8010 area, NF may further fall up to 7925-7870 & 7785-7720 territory in the near term.* After "Brexit" referendum in UK, all eyes are on the ongoing political turmoil there which is adding more uncertainty in the financial market. As par the rule, Article-50 need to be invoked in UK Parliament to initiate the process of "Real Brexit". But, as of now, it seemed that the "Leave" campaigners are not too much enthusiastic about that and various prominent "Remain" camp politicians/leaders are tendering their resignations along with the UK PM. As the thing stands today, Article-50 may be invoked (if at all !!) only after Oct'16 (after Cameron exit and a new PM took the office). There are also some strong online petition by the "Remain" camp for a 2-nd referendum. All these political game of football may also be indicating that UK may hold an early general election after Cameron leaves the office. On the other side, EU authority, specially Germany are putting immense pressure on UK to hasten the process of "Real Brexit" as soon as possible and apparently are not interested to offer any better package for UK to remain in EU as of now. Any formal negotiation will only happen after UK officially invoke Article-50. Clearly, all these "Brexit Drama" are creating lots of confusions & uncertainties among market participants and both "Wall Street" & "Real Street" does not like so much uncertainty, which may continue for the next two years. There are also some market talk that BOE will cut by 0.25% shortly and FED may also cut by 0.25% to return to ZRIP again in the July-Sep'16 meet in order to keep the market stable after post "Brexit" scenario. But market is not paying any attention to those scenario right now and even to the Chinese Yuan, which is devalued today against USD to record 6.68 level. *We have some sector specific movement today as:* 1. Shares of IT cos (software service export) declined today for their hefty exposoure on EU market. 2. Scrips of FMCG and rural economy oriented cos rallied today by some extent after IMD predicted extended monsoon this year. 3. Oil marketing & Airline cos rallied today decently amid continuous decline of Crude oil as a fall out of "Brexit". 4. Pharma also rallied today after HC stayed the price controlling order of NPPA. 5. Some metal counters rallied today amid strength in copper prices. 5 Bharti Airtel declined today modestly after deferment of its Bangladesh JV. Going forward, apart from GST & actual progress of monsoon, market will look into the June CPI number, Auto sales figure and appointment of next RBI Gov, which may be the next drivers of our market. So far, as par various report, Gov may appoint an economist of Rajan's caliber for the post and currently there are four names (Urjit Patel, Kaushik Basu, Rakesh Mohan, Subir Gokran). Present SBI Chairwoman (Arundhati Bhattacharya), who is also a strong contender for the post, may be granted another year for SBI instead of RBI. <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Z1XeGXoyAyk/V3HKcWWhd3I/Hm0/QDHVPeOnUtcJnj3VTemSd8FiMBFK68XMwCLcB/s1600/NF-PATTERN-27-06-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24642] Apollo Hospitals: 1290-1260 May Be A Good Demand Zone--Expansion & Pharmacy Division Deleverage Plan May Help
*Trading/Investing Idea: Apollo Hospital* * * *CMP: 1303* * * *Buy on dips around 1290-1275* * * *TGT: 1336*-1355-1378*-1395-1418*-1480-1500*-1545 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL< 1260* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) below 1260 for any reason, Apollo Hospital may further fall up to 1235-1205-1180 & 1130 in the near to long term (alternative bear case scenario). *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U9mb3s0lU70/V3HwfvACkpI/HnU/CP-6h42sB6wFbfX9We6v5h_g4Po0xHwwgCLcB/s1600/AH-27-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aZFpnO5_pt0/V3Hwhf0aS8I/HnY/tMhv2cvoldwyl8fNmvcQ9PaQ0c8QZu8YgCLcB/s1600/AH-FIBB-27-06-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vaDL9rJrH3o/V3HwmJas94I/Hnk/gx6pE3uX-kkz9RHSpOnzKiIDPFTDqQHAgCLcB/s1600/AH-TL-27-06-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-guUUV-cfLT4/V3HwokNocuI/Hns/hjUnr8vHDroCC87Erq_5sACc_tcvlmgYgCLcB/s1600/AH-PATTERN-27-06-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-01vDsQk089I/V3HwsL0xmUI/Hn8/9i9FdBtTyXgn3cpxjaP4e246OA-rNhlXgCLcB/s1600/AH-EW-27-06-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2crWmrBVEz8/V3HwveejtvI/HoA/fXmm66hKx2sd2o8XpWODJG2A2ARUUXpDACLcB/s1600/AH-WK-27-06-016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23912] Fwd: Motherson Sumi: Ahead Of Result--What's The Chart Is Saying ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Motherson Sumi: Ahead Of Result--What's The Chart Is Saying ? Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 10:32:22 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Further upside only sustaining above 280-285 till 305-322-335;* *Otherwise 255-245-235 may be on the card again* Q3FY16 expected PAT (consolidated) around Rs.355 cr Against Rs.400.68 cr (YOY) & Rs.382.48 cr (QOQ) (Before minority interest & share of associates) *CMP: 272* *Sell around 276-280;* *TGT1: 262-255-245-235 (1-30 days)* * * *TGT2: 223-215-200 (1-12M)* * * *TSL> 285* Note: Consecutive three days closing above 285 zone for any reason, MS may further rally towards 305-322-335 & 360-385-396 area in the mid to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present level). Expected Q3FY16 EBITDA is around Rs.1010 cr with margin expansion 9.5%. All eyes will be on the EU & China operations for expected surge in demand and 20% increase in EU revenue. Q3FY16 expected revenue (consolidated) is around Rs.9400 cr against Rs.9149 cr (YOY) & Rs.9198 cr (QOQ). *Technically, MS may be in A-wave in the daily EW cycle (corrective) and sustaining below 278-280, the corrective B-wave target may be around 257-245.* *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m_li_I2xm1U/VrlbVdPT-DI/GDo/CUKVAYN1BdE/s1600/MS-08-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eot9OnPaW6g/VrlbXJ2shpI/GDs/aCH1Swx44zI/s1600/MS-FIBB-08-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4Eu2KcXzx6U/VrlbYsC36-I/GDw/HLUBqF8xxIc/s1600/MS-WK-08-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RtwUSoEpbYY/VrlbaH1y-HI/GD0/jzb2Q0n7_-Q/s1600/MS-PATTERN-08-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dRbQyVS4XVA/Vrlbb0AidKI/GD4/VUpXKaV5J4c/s1600/MS-TL-08-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rUhXlo_L6LI/Vrlbd0RP-OI/GD8/dykXi1QIo94/s1600/MS-EW-08-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23887] Fwd: Jubiliant Food : Sustaining Below 1300 Zone, Don't Expect Any "Pizza Party"---
Forwarded Message Subject: Jubiliant Food : Sustaining Below 1300 Zone, Don't Expect Any "Pizza Party"--- Date: Fri, 5 Feb 2016 09:05:35 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For JFL, 1130-1090 is a strong support zone * *And consecutive closing below that, it may fall up to 1000-925 zone* *Persistent decline in SSSG for Yum (KFC/Pizza Hut) may also weigh on JFL;* *Falling sales in QSR industry may also indicating tepid consumer mood in India also* *CMP: 1180* * * *Sell either below 1140-1130 or on rise around 1250-1300;* * * *TGT: 1090*-1000-940-925 (1-3M)* * * *TSL> 1330* Note: Consecutive three days closing above 1330 for any reason, JFL may rally up to 1368-1400* and 1460-1500-1550-1580 zone in the short to mid term (alternative bullish scenario) *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QcLYaermjn0/VrQWb2hR3_I/GBw/rnIGkM2e_Oo/s1600/JFL-04-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--Fqu_lZAccI/VrQWd9d-VOI/GB0/T6GXdhGGBV4/s1600/JFL-FIBB-04-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aQO3WIdfS0k/VrQWgE6f4-I/GB4/eg6tPymVrkc/s1600/JFL-WK-04-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vWRP2rXYZDg/VrQWhzIgQEI/GB8/bQXhtF6y9F0/s1600/JFL-TL-04-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ELrtulvwhEY/VrQWk5xz2sI/GCA/eQNOxaxT6Us/s1600/JFL-PATTERN-04-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LKO90soP7jY/VrQWnvIq4hI/GCE/lB9UbdEuOIw/s1600/JFL-EW-04-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23913] Fwd: Nifty Fut (Feb): 7215-7110 Zone Very Crucial---
Forwarded Message Subject:Nifty Fut (Feb): 7215-7110 Zone Very Crucial--- Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2016 09:05:13 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *NF has to sustain above 7370-7410 zone for any strength up to 7590-7685* *Otherwise, 7110-6850 may be on the card* Apart from Oil & China, probable US recession And EU credit problem is now the prime concern for the global market Yellen testimony (likely to be dovish) may provide some temporary relief But, forthcoming budget session may be another washout except passage of budget as probability of political consensus for passage of crucial reform bills including GST is very little *Trading Levels: Nifty Fut (Feb)* SGX-NF: 7250 (CMP) NSE-NF: 7330 (LTP) SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR For Intraday Swing Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 72157235-285* 7305-3457385-411* 7445-4907540-590* <7195 Weak < 71957160-110* 7040-7000 6940-885* 6835-7806745-700>7215 FOR ConservativePositional Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 72157285* 73457411* 74907590-685 <7195 Weak < 71957110* 70006885* 67456700-550 >7215 Technically, NF may be in the 2-nd wave (daily EW cycle) and the extended target of the same is around 7215. Consecutive closing below this 7215 zone, NF may further fall to 7110-7000-6850 level. In the alternative scenario, if NF failed to sustain below 7215, we may see some relief rally up to 7370-7410* and 7540-7590 & 7685 zone. *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jBb0Lo58Gj4/Vrqt38-pjxI/GEc/q5oSUd6SnMU/s1600/NF-WK-09-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6t8kCZQAk4I/Vrqt5zosMrI/GEg/P88DNdIV1EQ/s1600/NF-FIBB-09-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7aUPfWX8lig/Vrqt7332mvI/GEk/0SZj4SCoK08/s1600/NF-WK-MA-09-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KkfIfSC-XaQ/Vrqt-QJsovI/GEo/C8b9cMIZjns/s1600/NF-PATTERN-09-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-F4gSWUFfe-M/VrquAE0G1UI/GEs/0u1CvcukCCs/s1600/NF-TL-09-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-y0cTVK35Dxw/VrquCdwUImI/GEw/D2VBbcyyLtQ/s1600/NF-EW-09-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23928] Fwd: Global & Indian Mkt Update: Is BOJ & Others Major CB Intervention (Fx) Imminent ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Global & Indian Mkt Update: Is BOJ & Others Major CB Intervention (Fx) Imminent ? Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 10:21:33 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Vital technical support levels for market:* *USDJPY: 110; below this 107-103 possible and more global panic.* * * *SPF: 1800; below that 1790-1780 strong positional support.* * * *NF: 6940-6885*-6745; sustain below 6885 it may fall further towards 6550-6350 zone; otherwise bounce back up to 7225-7410 is possible in the short term.* As global markets melt down and running towards a virtual capitulation stage for various factors originating primarily from massive slump in Oil & other commodities prices, risk trade is off and there is a flight of safety towards Japanese Yen. As a result, USDJPY was dangerously close to 110 level yesterday, which may be an "intolerance" zone for the BOJ as all the QQE policy is designed by it for the last few years is to keep the USDJPY above 115 level (preference range 115-125) for an edge on the Japanese exports. There is some market chatters of "real" BOJ intervention and we are already hearing some Japanese comments about the Fx market (verbal intervention). On the other side, although weak USD is beneficial for US exports, the overall global market turmoil is not good for US economy too and FED's "script" is slowly changing too !! There is virtually no chance for any further US rate hike before Dec'16 and that too seems most doubtful now, considering the China slowdown and global market turbulence. Although Yellen is trying to keep a "brave face" for the real economy of US and the Dec'15 rate hike stance, she is slowly changing her "script" and now thinking about legal possibility of negative interest rate (NIRP) in US or even revert back to previous zero rate. ECB is ready with its "bazooka" and may even buy back bank shares (DB ??) from the market as a part of its QQE. China, on their part has now virtually no option but to allow its Yuan to devalue, preferably in an orderly manner. USD reserve of China is depleting fast in their effort to fight against "evil Yuan speculators" (various big US hedge funds, who took massive Yuan short positions for a probability of Yuan target of around 6.95-7.05 in the near term). PBOC certainly wants to devalue its currency to give more thrust on the Chinese exports, but not at the present "speculative" way. But, it has now virtually no option, but to allow further Yuan devaluation to ramp up its exports and reduce import bills to shore up the USD reserve, which is dangerously near the alarm zone and now stands around $3.1 trillion with an average $100 bln outflow for the last few months. *Bottom line: * We may see immediate BOJ intervention backed by other major central bankers of the world including G7 countries to avert a possible "dooms day" in the global financial market. Although, effectiveness of further real QQE is doubtful, but its necessary to keep the "Wall Street" in stable condition and then attempt for any structural changes/policy for the "real street". Its the "easy money" (QQE), which is largely responsible for reckless capacity addition in commodity space (for example Oil, Steel etc) and has created the present huge imbalance in demand/supply imbalance. Effectively, QQE was not able to create so much demand for Oil in comparison for its over production (supply glut). Now, even there is storage problem surfacing for the Oil and its not so much easy to have an universal cut (even 5%) for Oil production as various types of contradictory geo-political factors involved here. As par some reports, we may see Oil demand/supply re-balancing only by CY-2017 as by then, a large numbers of Oil firms may be forced to shut down because around $30-35 Oil, most of non-OPEC Oil firms are running below their break even. Even for OPEC, which has cost of production anything between $10-20, the present average price of $30-35 is causing a serious strain on their finances and domestic economy and various SWF are selling their equity/bond holdings in the global market to make up the possible budget short fall. This is the primary reason for global market melt down and China, DB is just acting as a catalyst. The growing fear of full blown bankruptcies of may Oil firms and its effect on bank exposoure & jobs is the prime concern for the market. *For Indian market, nothing will work, until global sentiment improves and the present NPA issues is indicating towards a full blown banking crisis here.* Next week Monday/Tuesday will be interesting for the market as China will return on Monday and there is also US holiday on that day. *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blo
[www.niftyviews.com:23902] Fwd: Jet Airways: Sustaining Above 550-600 Can Fly Up To 800-1050
Forwarded Message Subject:Jet Airways: Sustaining Above 550-600 Can Fly Up To 800-1050 Date: Mon, 8 Feb 2016 10:20:26 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Q3FY16 result surprised the street aided by lower fuel costs & higher ASKM* *CMP: 570* * * *Buy either above 550-585 or in dips around 515-505;* * * *TGT1: 615-650-685*-730-770-800 (1-6M)* * * *TGT2: 925-1000-1040*-1100 (12-24M)* * * *TSL< 490* Note: Consecutive closing below 490 zone, Jet may crash towards 470*-448 & 425-400 area in the alternative bear case scenario. Q3FY16 PAT of Jet was reported at around Rs.468 cr against street estimates of around Rs.334 cr (YOY-63.11 and QOQ-87.59 including exceptional item); i.e a jump of nearly 640% and 435% on YOY & QOQ basis !! Q3FY16 total revenue was at around Rs.5444 cr against Rs.5051 cr, increased by 7.7% (YOY) and by 3.5% QOQ (Rs.5258 cr). Q3 reported EPS was at 41.11 against consensus of 29.45 (YOY-5.56; QOQ-7.71). Interestingly, in all the last five quarters, there was an exceptional item and total accumulated loss in Jet since FY:11-15 was around Rs.7193 cr. If Jet posted comparable PAT as in Q3FY16 in the forthcoming quarters, and with some expected growth, the company may wipe out all the previous accumulated losses as indicated above by FY-19. QOQ Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Exceptional Item305.01 69.78 -1172.39127.95 -45.56 ?? PAT 69.82 63.11 -1728.99221.7 87.59 467 YOY FY-11 FY-12 FY-13 FY-14 FY-15 FY-16 (EXP) Accumulated Loss(FY-16) NET P/L(PAT)9.69-1236.1 -485.5 -3667.85-1813.71 1292-5901.47 ACCUMULATED LOSS-7193.47 (UP TO FY-15) As par published P/L statement for Jet, there was no mention of any exceptional item for Q3FY16 and it will be interesting to see, if any such exceptional item helped for sudden jump in Q3 PAT !! Q3FY16 EBITDA was at around Rs.693 cr against Rs.229 cr (YOY) with margin stood around 12.7% Vs 4.5%. Q3FY16 other operating income (leasing of aircraft & engine) was at around Rs.420 cr against Rs.370 cr (YOY) and Rs.402 cr (QOQ). Q3FY16 total expenses was at around Rs.4947 cr against Rs.5014 cr (YOY). Notably. Jet's fuel expenses dropped by almost 27% to Rs.1235 cr against Rs.1701 cr (YOY) and 8% QOQ (Rs.1337 cr). Clearly, Q3 result of Jet was supported by lower fuel (ATF) cost, higher traffic and increased aircraft utilization. Thus the growth in ASKM (available seat per KM) helped Jet quite a lot in improving its operating and financial performance in Q3. As par the management, in-depth focus on cost reduction initiatives has resulted in around 5% & 15% lower cost in non-fuel and total ASKM. Notably, OCT-Dec quarter (Q3) is traditionally strong/peak season for airlines because of increased travel during festivals and year-end holidays. Passenger revenue grew by 4.8% (YOY) for Jet in Q3. In 2014-15, price of Brent crude oil fall by over 80%. In India, fuel costs count for almost 50% of expenses of domestic airlines and a 4% movement of fuel costs affects around 2% operating margin of the airlines on either side. However, crude is near its multiyear low around $27 and the short term range may be around $25-36, considering various techno funda parameters; i.e. crude may stabilize around $30 in the near term. Only by late 2016-17, we may see some re-balancing in demand/supply dynamics and in that scenario, crude may hover around $45-50. For domestic airlines, thus incremental benefit of lower fuel costs may be at its peak and we may not see the Q3 like jumps (YOY-640% & QOQ-435%) in earnings for domestic airlines including Jet in the months ahead. Also, benefit of lower ATF prices may be passed on to the consumers to a great extent by other domestic airlines to grab the market share; i.e. we may see incrementally higher competition among the airlines in India, which may affect operating margin in the days ahead. As India is highly under penetrated in air travel compared to its peers, there will be huge scope for growth in the months ahead, considering the expected overall economic recovery, GDP growth, higher income aspirations of the young demography, implementation of 7-PC etc. But, higher regulatory charges, predatory ticket pricing for airline industry in India may be some of the headwinds. ATF prices in India is now at multi year low (35-41/- par lt) and much below petrol price (around 60/- par lt), thanks to the Govt for not increasing any ED on ATF for developing infra purpose !! This is a huge boost for domestic airlines and over the years, a significant proportion of AC travelers
[www.niftyviews.com:23848] Fwd: China-A-50: Near Term Bottom May Be 8500-8250 Zone
Forwarded Message Subject:China-A-50: Near Term Bottom May Be 8500-8250 Zone Date: Thu, 28 Jan 2016 08:17:52 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Consecutive closing below 8250 zone, more panic may come And CA-50 can fall up to 8030 & 6450-6250 in the near term (i.e. up to 25% from the present level) For any stability, CA-50 need to sustain at least above 8750-9060 zone Dovish Fed may bring USD lower and help China to stabilize its currency in the near future, But in the long term, structural reform is required for the real economy in both EM & DM* * *CMP: 8655* * * *Buy:8500-8400* *TGT: 8750*-8900-9060*-9220-9350-9585-9865 (1-3M)* * * *TSL<8330/8250** Note: Sustain below 8500, CA-50 can fall to 8415-8330-8250 zone, which is again a strong technical support area. *Only consecutive closing below 8250 zone, more panic may come and in that scenario, it can fall up to 8150-8030* and 7570-6800-6450 to 6250 zone in the foreseeable future (i.e. up to nearly 25% from the present level).* *Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7NT7NsE4GjQ/VqkR-Vh4MUI/F4I/PsptsYm_Fys/s1600/CA-50-27-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-52HfFtWshFU/VqkSAC3PGVI/F4Q/1gORkF0WCrw/s1600/CA-50-FIBB-27-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cSynYuluXRY/VqkSCGwhNnI/F4Y/kY0i1Q9XCSY/s1600/CA-50-WK-27-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nMaRzPCNrcs/VqkSE9BH68I/F4g/Hv8Aw3EOUFU/s1600/CA-50-PATTERN-27-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XyzAGZZb0Ok/VqkSHIWDFoI/F4o/Kduw2j57E4I/s1600/CA-50-TL-27-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QTGQlrHSWic/VqkSJrZepsI/F4w/39MgvlNYrpI/s1600/CA-50-TL-MT-27-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23849] Fwd: HDFC: Need To Sustain Over 1200 For 1250-1275 In The Near Term
Forwarded Message Subject:HDFC: Need To Sustain Over 1200 For 1250-1275 In The Near Term Date: Thu, 28 Jan 2016 09:00:48 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Sustain below 1144, expect 1090-1055 in the days ahead Q3FY16 result is below street estimates with higher provisions for bad loans But less pressure from RBI on NPA disclosure issue may provide some support to HDFC *CMP: 1170* * * *Sell on rise around: 1180-1200* * * *TGT1: 1144*-1120-1090*-1055 (1-3M)* * * *TGT2: 1025-1000-965-945*-915-880 (6-12M)* * * *TSL>1220* *Note: Consecutive closing above 1220 for any reason, HDFC may rally up to 1250-1275 & 1300-1350-1400 in the mid to long term* *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-caBR4OeubqY/VqmJi48FgPI/F5o/u97LqyUs9ss/s1600/HDFC-27-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-npBjZFOzOR0/VqmJlapxQfI/F5w/M_P8A-MyNyk/s1600/HDFC-FIBB-27-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-N7RxRKp0Hbg/VqmJnTXQduI/F54/V6Gg6neZLdU/s1600/HDFC-WK-27-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-uXAhGHFeE0w/VqmJpUay28I/F6A/6uOPq95WZmg/s1600/HDFC-PATTERN-27-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DdNbgbUmf9E/VqmJs1lIWUI/F6I/XrYhxP4s6Ww/s1600/HDFC-TL-27-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z2u8mOwXabA/VqmJvZojkEI/F6Q/u8intrmy8hI/s1600/HDFC-PATTERN-MT-27-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23842] Fwd: HDFC Bank: Need To Sustain Over 1070-1080 Zone For Further Rally
Forwarded Message Subject:HDFC Bank: Need To Sustain Over 1070-1080 Zone For Further Rally Date: Wed, 27 Jan 2016 09:36:31 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Although Q3FY16 result is inline with street estimates, * *But, NPA remains a concern and RBI's pressure to come clean * *And tepid NIM & other fee income may drag the stock* *CMP: 1041* * * *Sell either below 1035 or on rise around: 1060-1070* * * *TGT: 1005*-976-955 (1-3M)* * * *TSL>1085* Note: Consecutive closing above 1085 for any reason, HDFC Bk may further rally up to 1128*-1180 & 1205-1250 in the mid to long term. *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-N-QIj-tvHnY/Vqg7LtF9BiI/F3M/PW2qE1zTWxA/s1600/HDFCBK-25-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fpwnmweYLW8/Vqg7NYsg_sI/F3U/EoVPOUAtL8o/s1600/HDFCBK-FIBB-25-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DfzH9EAvsjw/Vqg7QevHSmI/F3c/gp7TKDQYHA4/s1600/HDFCBK-WK-25-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-96IZTYmUNXs/Vqg7S12nPpI/F3k/Tli7Q-tbcbI/s1600/HDFCBK-PATTERN-25-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Csa2rY_Gv5A/Vqg7VOMuXUI/F3s/KcA_Wmz-HkY/s1600/HDFCBK-PATTERN-LT-25-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7b6krfPQmkg/Vqg7XLENdpI/F30/qihyXcv-V_s/s1600/HDFCBK-TL-25-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23856] Fwd: ICICI Bank:Sustaining Abv 243-253 Zone May Be Very Tough Under The Changed Scenario--
Forwarded Message Subject: ICICI Bank:Sustaining Abv 243-253 Zone May Be Very Tough Under The Changed Scenario-- Date: Fri, 29 Jan 2016 09:09:10 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Immediate downside target may be 213-203* Q3FY16 PAT is slightly below estimates supported by other income And NII beats consensus by around 1% But provisions rise 190% (YOY) and 202%(QOQ), Which may be beyond any street estimates--- Thanks to RBI rule of early recognition of stressed assets This trend may continue for the next few quarters--- *CMP: 233* *Either sell below 230-227 or on rise around: 243-253;* *TGT1: 217-213*-203* (1-3M)* * * *TGT2:188*-180 & 160-151*-145 (6-12M)* *TSL > 257/265* * Note: For ICICI Bk, 213 & 203 is a strong support and sustain below 203, more pain come come up to 188-151 zone. Consecutive closing above 265 for any reason, ICICI Bk may rally up to 278-285 & 300-320 in the mid to long term (alternative bullish scenario). * * *As par BG metrics and current market parameters:* (based on TTM & FWD EPS) Present median valuation of ICICI Bk may be around: 280 (FY:15-16/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 300-315 (FY:17-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA ICICIBANK 20.43 138.37 15 292.09 268.13 280.11 278.41 234.6 ICICIBANK 20.45 151.25 15 292.24 268.26 280.25 278.41 234.6 ICICIBANK 22.95 165.65 15 309.58 284.18 296.88 278.41 234.6 ICICIBANK 25.75 183.25 15 327.93 301.02 314.47 278.41 234.6 *Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NU1vw994lzo/VqrcnsoUieI/F60/FnZ-P0IEqDE/s1600/ICICI-MON-28-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fc0A99qdJ7Q/VqrcpSPu2BI/F68/n7mOqFvhr6M/s1600/ICICI-FIBB-28-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h9a1AgVy-88/VqrcrA2Z6PI/F7E/ulUZa3MqQMY/s1600/ICICI-28-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TNTVU4oHeso/Vqrcsrdp1tI/F7M/rKebMNstgPU/s1600/ICICI-TL-RSI-28-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZM9a0WRsIIo/VqrcwGbgGWI/F7U/sR3QwZZ34Xs/s1600/ICICI-TL-28-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-a57xAM95Tpo/Vqrcy7AT29I/F7c/oF87ylWJDaY/s1600/ICICI-PATTERN-28-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23976] Fwd: Ambuja Cements: Will Gain Strength Only Sustaining Above 202-206
Forwarded Message Subject:Ambuja Cements: Will Gain Strength Only Sustaining Above 202-206 Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 09:03:44 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com For Ambuja Cements, only consecutive closing above 202-206 zone, Near term target may be 221-231; Otherwise, it can fall to 188-185 zone; And sustaining below that 170-150 may be the near term target With actual TTM EPS at 5.21 and average yearly EPS for the last five years at 7.95 The fair value of the stock may be 165-175 (at PE of 25) in the current market scenario *Trading idea:* CMP: 194 Either sell below 198 or on rise around 202-206; TGT: 185*-170-150*-140 (1-12M) TSL> 210 Note: Consecutive (3 days) closing above 210 for any reason, Ambuja may rally up to 215/221-231 and 250-275-295 in the short to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading levels). For Ambuja, current TTM EPS is now 5.21 and going by the previous quarterly trend Q4FY16 TTM EPS may be reported at around 4.50. Average yearly EPS for the last five years is at 7.95. There are some forward projections of its EPS at around 8.75-11.45 (FY:16-18), which may be too much optimistic and on the higher side, even if there is a sudden miracle of overall economic recovery in India and massive spending by the Govt into infra and affordable housing push. In that case, projected EPS of 8.75-11.45 will be 95-150% higher from the likely Q4FY16 TTM EPS of around 4.50 too !! *As par BG metrics & current market scenario:* (based on actual TTM & projected FWD EPS) Current median valuation of Ambuja may be around: 160 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 165-175 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA AMBUJACEM 5.2170.31 25 165.37 159.36 162.36 209.95 194.98 AMBUJACEM 4.5 74.95 25 153.69 148.11 150.90 209.95 194.98 AMBUJACEM 5.2 79.55 25 165.21 159.21 162.21 209.95 194.98 AMBUJACEM 6.0184.75 25 177.61 171.16 174.38 209.95 194.98 *Analytical Charts:* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kKtY5W8Bj3g/Vs0hXzsfmJI/GPQ/wu0IkHv7B78/s1600/Ambuja-23-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U--yIQK17V8/Vs0ha5yV3FI/GPU/Dv2zyIQwfJ4/s1600/Ambuja-Fibb-23-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Xy7tmjsZAgw/Vs0hdP1AblI/GPY/eUVLg_FJ7PY/s1600/Ambuja-WK-23-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6FNnPrVY9E4/Vs0hfi88XPI/GPc/TXS4km2C2eE/s1600/Ambuja-Pattern-23-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Jwz6BIhS2cE/Vs0hiHe23tI/GPg/xv27FKZFjoA/s1600/Ambuja-TL-23-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nn0UMkk0ROE/Vs0hlrG_R5I/GPk/451exll0jIU/s1600/Ambuja-TL-LT-23-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23997] Fwd: Nifty Fut (Mar): What's The Tech Saying Ahead Of Budget?
Forwarded Message Subject:Nifty Fut (Mar): What's The Tech Saying Ahead Of Budget? Date: Mon, 29 Feb 2016 08:54:49 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *NF need to sustain over 7215-7295 zone for any rally towards 7560-7595; * *Otherwise, it may be weak and below 7015-6960 zone, * *may again fall towards 6875-6775 area.* *7-PC based consumption boost may be not sacrosanct * *as previously expected overall economic recovery magic !!* *Trading Levels: Nifty Fut (Mar)* SGX-NF: 7040 (LTP) NSE-NF: 7061 (LTP) SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR For Intraday Swing Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 71707215-260* 7295-3507375-435* 7475-4907560-595* <7150 Weak < 71507115-090* 7055-0156990-940* 6905-8756850-775* >7170 FOR ConservativePositional Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 71707295* 73757435* 75607640-750* <7150 Weak < 71507090* 70156940* 68756775-570* >7170 After no G-20 co-ordinated CB action on Saturday, global markets are trading somewhat lower as various statements by G-20 leaders apparently showed that they are not so much "concerned" about the current global market turmoil and they will continue to keep "close watch" on the FX world/market. Back to home, as par our PM, today may be an "exam day" for him/his Govt, being the budget day. Some of the important highlights, market will watch for this budget: FY-16 actual fiscal deficit figure, which is likely to be between 3.7-3.9% of GDP. FY:17-18-19 FRBM road map, which is expected between 3.5-3% of GDP. Too much deviation from the previously announced FRBM targets, may attract rating agencies action/downgrade. FY-17 gross borrowing targets & capex for the Govt. A strong dose of infra spending is expected to compensate for the poor private sector investment, even at the cost of some fiscal consolidation. 7-PC/OROP implementation road map, which is expected to stagger over three years. Some measure to boost consumption through direct tax concessions, like SD increased from Rs.2 lakhs to Rs.3 lakhs and few more sops are expected. 1% cut in corporate tax as par plan of 25 to 20% within 2019 with exemptions withdrawal (revenue neutral for Govt, but overall some net higher tax outgo for some corporates also). Hike in service tax from present 14.5% to around 18% as par GST road map (negative for overall economy as it may result in somehow higher inflation, with virtually no hope for GST implementation even by FY-17; in the back drop of current political scenario and forthcoming state elections, there is little hope for any consensus regarding passage of important bills like GST in the RS). PSBS recapitalization road map apart from the present "Indradhanush". Higher lock in period for LTCG from present 1 to 3 year is expected; but in the present scenario of weak market sentiment, Govt may not choose to tinker with these. Govt is expected to abolish DDT & STT; but taking into the revenue angle, Govt may not oblige for any STT cut. Some Budgetary steps to boost rural economy & social sector spending aiming for the coming five state elections (in which BJP is expected to loose in all the states !!). FY-17 divestment plan, strategic sales of Govt assets (non-core PSUS to fund PSBS) Road map for "Start Up" & "Make In India" funding. Road map for subsidy rationalization. After no such economic recovery as highly expected in the last two years, market is now keeping hope on 7-PC based demand & consumption growth. But, given the staggered nature of the implementation and the current subdued market condition and tepid confidence of the Indian consumers, no big-bang consumption may actually happen apart from some low ticket ones. Its not sacrosanct that people will start into buying spree as soon as they got the 7-PC arrears; instead they may go into savings mode for their future generations. *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FgSLCzpSwok/VtO32sP6klI/GSo/S0vOvNmgnD8/s1600/NF
[www.niftyviews.com:23987] Fwd: Global & Indian Market Update : Can G-20 Meet Help A Bit ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Global & Indian Market Update : Can G-20 Meet Help A Bit ? Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 09:14:42 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: NSE NF (Mar)* SGX NF: 7080 (CMP) NSE-NF: 7001 (LIP-ADJ) Either sell below 7115 or on rise around 7150; TGT: 7050-7025*-6960*-6925-6900-6860 (1-5 days) TSL> 7170-7195 Note: Consecutive closing above 7195 zone, NF may further rally towards 7225-7295 & 7315-7375 area in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level). In the near term, NF has to sustain over 7375-7410 zone for further rally up to 7580-7655 zone. On the downside, consecutive closing below 6860, NF may further fall towards 6775-6565 & 6480-6335 zone in the days ahead, depending upon the budget news flow. Yesterday's railway budget may be indicating that Govt may present a rural economy oriented budget on Monday aiming at the forthcoming state elections. With little hope of any "dream budget" this time, all eyes will be on fiscal deficit road map, Govt's capex & borrowings to stimulate our economy and tax/LTCG treatment. Going by the current global & local/domestic market turmoil, Govt may not choose to tinker with LTCG this time as this may cause more market meltdown at our end. Unless and until, global sentiment improves and there are some visible structural improvement, nothing will work for our market. Also, our market may likely to see some actual earnings improvement and policy reform (GST etc) and an road map for the PSBS recapitalization amid the ongoing NPA mess. Yesterday's announcement in the SDR mechanism by the RBI may help some PSBS in the short term, but huge capital and interest rate policy reform may be required for a long term solution. India's real rate of interest is too high & its an expensive economy & cost of doing business is also high (as incremental benefit of lower oil prices was not transmitted to the consumers/economy and there are various high regulatory charges). Also, political landscape is fast changing and people are loosing faith in NAMO/Modinomics amid various socio political issues. Recent, Jat vandalism in Haryana may caused significant loss of confidence among investors of doing business in India. After yesterday's late oil rally ($0.82~2.5%) amid speculation of yet another production cut meeting between OPEC & Non-OPEC members in March as told by Russian Oil minister, SPF reversed the direction and now trading around 1950. *Technically, SPF has to now sustain over 1950-1960 zone for any strength and in that scenario, it may rally up to 1975-2000 & 2035-2075 and 2095-2110 zone. On the flip side, unable to sustain over 1960 area, it may again fall towards 1910-1867 & 1824-1804 zone in the near term.* *For Crude (CMP: $33), formidable technical hurdle is 34-35.50 zone and only consecutive closing above that it may further rally up to 38-41. On the flip side, sustain below 30.40, it may again fall towards 26-25 zone in the near term.* Globally all eyes will be on the G-20 meet currently going on in China and comments by various Central bankers/FM(s). There are some market talk that, after this summit, China may announce significant Yuan devaluation road map as a part of co-ordinated policy action by the major global CB(s). Apart from China, Oil, probable EU/US recession, there will be also Brexit issues and all this may be an ideal landscape for the Fed to take an wait & watch stance in 2016, with out any rate hike and probability of an US NIRP will also be there. Analytical Charts: <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-j-uJH1WKFrw/Vs_Hy1xVr3I/GQ8/7Hl-KQlyJnw/s1600/SGX-NF-26-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y10dXE23hAE/Vs_H0qlGv0I/GRA/RKH-FgYBd_U/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-26-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Tp_PDIUpVWU/Vs_H2z2v6rI/GRE/KIItMB91mAY/s1600/SPF-26-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eJf5beAhPB0/Vs_H4o7suII/AAAAGRI/SYUEalPqwgI/s1600/Crude-26-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. prov
[www.niftyviews.com:23971] Fwd: ACC: Avg PE Now Ard 40 Against 20 Of Nifty--Is Such Higher Valuations Justifiable For Cement Cos ?
Forwarded Message Subject: ACC: Avg PE Now Ard 40 Against 20 Of Nifty--Is Such Higher Valuations Justifiable For Cement Cos ? Date: Tue, 23 Feb 2016 09:06:07 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *ACC has to sustain above 1315-1340 zone for any rally towards 1400-1500;* *Otherwise, it may fall towards 1200-1180 in the near term. * Any increase in railway goods freight and disappointment in expected higher capex in the budget may be negative for the cement cos including ACC In the current market scenario, 25 may be more reasonable PE for cement cos instead of 40 TTM EPS of ACC : 31.22 *Trading idea:* CMP: 1281 Either sell below 1290 or on rise around 1315-1330; TGT1: 1250-1200-1180*-1140 (1-3M) TGT2: 1080-1025*-945-911 & 885-850*-810 (12-24M) TSL> 1345 Note: Consecutive (3 days) closing above 1345 zone, ACC may further rally towards 1380-1400 & 1430-1530 area in the short to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level). To be cont for more analytical inputs As par BG metrics & current market scenario: (based on actual TTM & projected FWD EPS) Current median valuation of ACC may be around: 1010 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 930-980-1030 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA ACC 31.22 437.23 25 1029.98 989.83 1009.90 1359.21 1255.29 ACC 26.5461.3 25 948.93 911.94 930.44 1359.21 1255.29 ACC 29.25 486.85 25 996.96 958.09 977.52 1359.21 1255.29 ACC 32.25 513.55 25 1046.83 1006.02 1026.43 1359.21 1255.29 *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hWFO51eVGzM/VsvRkezeAdI/GOg/Lmc2-DINTdw/s1600/ACC-22-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-smOVxB_VQ-s/VsvRmgx7mtI/GOk/ZXLu1QGIFjY/s1600/ACC-FIBB-19-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pAvSaf8dmdA/VsvRn9uuXpI/GOo/W5F_p-9pgac/s1600/ACC-WK-19-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ulw9IeNz1cE/VsvRpcv1yLI/GOs/dUaTNF61fAA/s1600/ACC-TL-19-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JbmCHiYchmM/VsvRrQY9ZGI/GOw/Zo0vhcaXFtc/s1600/ACC-PATTERN-19-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kbRhHr-zMGk/VsvRtrrZCNI/GO0/YV5Jg9EjUoY/s1600/ACC-TL-LT-19-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23830] Fwd: Exide Inds: India Will Move On, If It Holds 117-113
Forwarded Message Subject:Exide Inds: India Will Move On, If It Holds 117-113 Date: Fri, 22 Jan 2016 10:19:58 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Subdued raw material costs and hope of economic revival & GST may help* *CMP:120* * * *Buy on dips around 120-113;* * * *TGT: 138-153*-161-175 & 195-205 (1-3 & 12-24M) * * * *TSL<108* Note: Consecutive closing below 108 for any reason or overall market meltdown, Exide may further fall towards 99-85 zone in the near term. As par BG metrics & current market parameters: (based on standalone TTM & FWD EPS) Current median valuation of Exide may be around: 140 (FY:15-16/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 155-170 (FY:17-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA EXIDEIND6.8547.44 20 143.98 134.93 139.46 151.32 132.9 EXIDEIND7.1551.75 20 147.10 137.86 142.48 151.32 132.9 EXIDEIND8.4556.45 20 159.92 149.87 154.89 151.32 132.9 EXIDEIND10.05 61.55 20 174.40 163.44 168.92 151.32 132.9 Analytical Charts: <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EYHPffLgbsg/VqGjp6ewisI/Fzo/sJxeETyz2gs/s1600/Exide-Month-21-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hILoji7qXas/VqGj6OO6RbI/Fzw/MwNHdsN0dqg/s1600/Exide-Fibb-21-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DYFTe44-x8Q/VqGj8_VeWfI/Fz4/PYh7DiFK5_Q/s1600/Exide-21-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kYDtUY2Kk60/VqGj_LjnuEI/F0A/pIDShnuvN4k/s1600/Exide-TL-21-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vQ1WQheaHMM/VqGkB-uSd1I/F0I/YUWVtEN956I/s1600/Exide-Pattern-21-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Sw2yadTxWoU/VqGkD1hg7-I/F0Q/oV0jULN1-_Y/s1600/Exide-TL-LT-21-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23820] Fwd: Wipro: Sustain Below 525, Expect Some Blood Bath Up To 475
Forwarded Message Subject:Wipro: Sustain Below 525, Expect Some Blood Bath Up To 475 Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 09:09:06 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For any meaningful rally, Wipro has to sustain over 560-575 for 615-650* * * *Muted results and oil woes may be the laggards-- * *The Trade:* * * *CMP: 542* * * *Sell on rise around 555-570;* * * *TGT: 525-505*-490-475 (1-3M)* * * *TSL>575* Note: Consecutive closing above 575 for any reason Wipro may rally up to 585-600-615 & 650 area in the short/mid to long term. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* (based on consolidated TTM & FWD EPS) Present median value of Wipro may be around: 605 (FY:15-16/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 640-675 (FY:17-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA WIPRO 36.25 150.16 18 608.64 597.43 603.03 567.72 547.01 WIPRO 36.85 178.05 18 613.65 602.36 608.00 567.72 547.01 WIPRO 40.95 211.25 18 646.89 634.98 640.94 567.72 547.01 WIPRO 45.5250.35 18 681.88 669.33 675.61 567.72 547.01 *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fcH9PncRkrY/Vp7_s9T8fII/Fvw/tUbiizsVEEk/s1600/Wipro-WK-19-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Qnr0i6HXNBM/Vp7_uwdmvMI/Fv4/L0midPIL5Xc/s1600/Wipro-Fibb-19-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UZip1g9KpMY/Vp7_xfbpksI/FwA/VJwgkLkDZrc/s1600/Wipro-WK-MA-19-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mpvnzy4Cvac/Vp7_zr269eI/FwI/K_MPJJCkHlE/s1600/Wipro-TL-RSI-19-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hRA4I4hYwbU/Vp7_1-Us6fI/FwQ/M9BzFCN9cKk/s1600/Wipro-Pattern-19-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wcZCm7IgXMc/Vp7_3nTrw2I/FwY/-nhBIbBR68Q/s1600/Wipro-EW-19-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23826] Fwd: USD/JPY: Time To Buy ?
Forwarded Message Subject:USD/JPY: Time To Buy ? Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 18:57:17 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *CMP: 116.55* * * *Buy either above 116.75 or in dips around 116-115:* * * *TGT: 118-121-124-126 (1-3M)* * * *TSL<114* Note: Consecutive closing below 114 for any reason, technically USD/JPY may fall up to 110-107 in the near term (although its unthinkable right now as BOJ will not let it fall so much). Its all started on last Friday, when Kuroda somewhat sounded like a dovish and commented surprisingly that further QQE may be damaging for Japanese economy. Consequently JPY soared and the follow up China/oil woes and severe equity market out flows firmed up JPY further as smart money took the cover of safety of JPY. But in reality, BOJ will not let the JPY so strong as it will further undermine their years long QQE effort and a relatively stronger Yen could hurt Japan's export edge, which will further push the country towards recession and stagflation/deflation. It seems that now BOJ is coming out of "sleep" and they are "watching" FX market quite closely. Be it verbal intervention or real one, USD/JPY bounced back along with "risk" trade. Technically, sustain below 118, exaggerated the selling of USD/JPY and the pair fall below 116. Now looking at the chart, 116-114 is a strong support zone and if it does not close below 114, then expect bounce back to wards 118-121 and sustaining above that it may gradually move around 124 zone around March'16. Again, the current global turmoil in financial world including China/Oil woes, Fed may not prefer to hike again in March'16, which may push USDJPY towards another key resistance level of 126 by March'16 on the back of "risk on" trade. *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9Pbow8aVO4E/Vp-HcW4DouI/Fwo/91pjbHsOA1w/s1600/USDJPY-20-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nQELylmKP4I/Vp-HgRZ44eI/Fww/Jng5jokaphc/s1600/USDJPY-FIBB-19-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DagD_hvRSQg/Vp-HjC0Zi9I/Fw4/hVq6Q2p5Nuc/s1600/USDJPY-WK-20-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LWYT070nX8o/Vp-Hl8MvoWI/FxA/sqpxpHNV-mg/s1600/USDJPY-TL-20-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VMmbWpQ1bQM/Vp-HrdfBhJI/FxI/w2heWOB6U7U/s1600/USDJPY-PATTERN-20-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wQCchn1hOqs/Vp-HuLK4upI/AAAAFxQ/wDmNSGWfqYI/s1600/USDJPY-PATTERN-MT-20-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23936] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Feb): 13780-730 Zone Is Big Support For A Relief Rally Up To 14500-800 Area
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty (Feb): 13780-730 Zone Is Big Support For A Relief Rally Up To 14500-800 Area Date: Mon, 15 Feb 2016 09:04:08 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Expect some pre-budget relief rally supported by positive global cues; Sustaining above 13730-14000 area, BNF may scale 14500-14800 zone But keep in mind that consecutive closing below 13730 zone for any reason, BNF may also fall up to 13275-12800 zone *Trading Levels: BNF (Feb)* LTP: 13930 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROMSLR For Intraday Swing Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 13780-990 14050-165 14275-350 14405-510* 14585-615 14675-800* <13730 Weak < 13730 13630-580 13535-385 13315-275* 13200-115 12875-800* >13780 FOR ConservativePositional Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 13780-990 14165 14350 14510* 14615 14800 <13730 Weak < 13730 13580 13385 13275* 13115 12800* >13780 * * *Analytical Charts:* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-B61xIJlmKKQ/VsFFrLZZkcI/GHo/axbGEV_J2eI/s1600/BNF-WK-12-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6X78UnFJZB8/VsFFtYjn_JI/GHs/0pmos5Y6oME/s1600/BNF-FIBB-12-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-exO_X8yse2c/VsFFvahxX6I/GHw/xGn1lmqBD_g/s1600/BNF-WK-MA-12-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W3Fa0iAQYeY/VsFFxrXm8-I/GH0/SzkegcACh-4/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-12-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LhLRneoJ1uw/VsFFzkiiCYI/GH4/6ML4GFz5DXg/s1600/BNF-TL-12-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uUf8Kbo65XU/VsFF1hnrewI/GH8/PtFL6D7nzZk/s1600/BNF-EW-12-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23944] Fwd: Bank Of Baroda: Has To Sustain Over 140-145 Zone For Further Rally
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Of Baroda: Has To Sustsian Over 140-145 Zone For Further Rally Date: Tue, 16 Feb 2016 09:09:55 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Consecutive closing (3 days) above 140-145 zone, BOB may further rally (dead cat bounce ?) towards 162-182; Otherwise it may again fall towards 118-110 area Q3FY16 EPS at (-) 14.50 and it may take another 12 months for the bank to return to break even with Q2FY16 EPS (TTM) at 15.89 even if we presumed that "all is fine" with BOB after full disclosure of RBI-AQR *CMP: 139* *Sell either below 140-145 or on rise around 152-162;* *TGT: 129-118*-102-93-85-78 (1-12M)* * * *TSL> 167* Note: Consecutive closing above 167 for any reason, BOB may further rally towards 182*-191 and 207-216-230 area in the mid to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present level). As we all know, BOB posted a horror Q3 result on last Saturday and reported a loss around Rs.3342 cr (after adjusting tax write back of Rs.1118 cr). This loss is the highest ever quarterly loss for any lender in the history of Indian Banking system. This loss was driven by 225% surge (YOY) in the Q3FY16 provisions to Rs.6164 cr from Rs.1891 cr; thanks to the RBI-AQR. But the stock zoomed by almost 20% on Monday to 142 from intraday opening low of 118 on the back of some positive commentary from the BOB management, hopes of some banking sector reforms in the forthcoming budget and RBI Gov's soft stance on further AQR. Analysts were also positive for the fact that BOB has cleaned/disclosed all its stressed assets in the Q3 itself, rather than spreading it over Q4 (as all other banks are doing). But some analysts are also skeptical about BOB, because its provision coverage ratio (PCR) is declining steadily on QOQ basis (from 65-58-52.7% in the last three quarters). This is an indication that the bank may have to take more provisions in the months ahead. That may hurt profits and there will be limited PAT growth in FY-17. *Analytical Charts:* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rsFWNtHJCWE/VsKYki4CS3I/GIc/CApys-jUmjI/s1600/BOB-15-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mj3l3w1QWIk/VsKYmTrRrLI/GIg/CFJ3o5uho30/s1600/BOB-FIBB-15-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-85O1aD_gfLw/VsKYo4AckuI/GIk/Mtv8cJXg2RY/s1600/BOB-MA-15-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KMpDR7uwG4M/VsKYq3mzeLI/GIo/EgJ74w28kdQ/s1600/BOB-TL-15-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VF-gE02_mCE/VsKYs2pWd3I/GIs/rxFN_tE34aI/s1600/BOB-TL-LT-15-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eQ9HAGNS1uQ/VsKYvKqSe3I/GIw/OAF653uZaLE/s1600/BOB-PATTERN-15-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23953] Fwd: Maruti: Further Rally Only Sustaining Abv 3800-3850 zone
Forwarded Message Subject:Maruti: Further Rally Only Sustaining Abv 3800-3850 zone Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 09:07:06 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For Maruti, consecutive closing below 3450-3380, * *It may fall up to 3000-2600 zone * Capacity constraints and Yen appreciation may be some of the headwinds despite hopes of demand revival & 7-PC *CMP: 3749* * * *Sell either below 3775 or on rise around 3800-3830;* * * *TGT1: 3620-3518-3450*-3380* (1-3M)* * * *TGT2: 3180-2990*-2840-2600* (12-24M)* * * *TSL> 3850* Note: Consecutive (3 days) closing above 3850, Maruti may rally up to 3970-4140-4290-4350 & 4500-4800 in the alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level. *As pat BG metrics and current market scenario:* *(based on TTM & FWD EPS)* Current median valuation of Maruti may be around: 3500 (TTM/FY-16) Projected fair valuations might be around: 3725-4000 (FWD/FY:17-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA MARUTI 156.31 784.7 20 3590.41 3410.88 3500.64 4123.54 3721.49 MARUTI 152.85 865.15 20 3550.45 3372.92 3461.68 4123.54 3721.49 MARUTI 175.95 950.5 20 3809.30 3618.83 3714.06 4123.54 3721.49 MARUTI 202.35 1045.45 20 4085.09 3880.83 3982.96 4123.54 3721.49 *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-y3IIjxlMQY0/VsU6xazAePI/GK8/2a5Q8t8i0tA/s1600/Maruti-17-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-n7obzgr3mW4/VsU6zehxsvI/GLA/-UrUAyyhiRs/s1600/Maruti-FIBB-17-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-au3xK59nAdw/VsU614EM_bI/GLE/8LABrQL1LQI/s1600/Maruti-WK-17-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UezOcX29KYY/VsU63ejKBQI/GLI/z9JTqxEge9k/s1600/Maruti-Pattern-17-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NMDAfrSS3t0/VsU65Tu98aI/GLM/5kqvd1SFRG4/s1600/Maruti-TL-17-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JvZJdBO3D7A/VsU67GiepcI/GLU/FSHapJiA_wQ/s1600/Maruti-EW-17-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23956] Fwd: Just Dial: Sustain Blw 585-605, may dial again 445-375
Forwarded Message Subject:Just Dial: Sustain Blw 585-605, may dial again 445-375 Date: Fri, 19 Feb 2016 10:27:41 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Consecutive closing below 445-375 zone, JD may fall up to 295-235* Buy back not so much attractive as it apparently seems; Such buy back also proves that the company has no viable business plan to deploy its cash And its returning its cash to the big shareholders. *CMP: 552* *Sell either below 585 or on rise around 605-625-650;* *TGT1: 491-445*-425-375 (1-3 M)* *TGT2: 345-315-295*-235 (12-24M)* *TSL> 670* Note: Consecutive (3 days) closing above 670 for any reason, JD may further rally towards 715-760 & 800-840* and 885-950-1105-1250 zone in the alternative bullish case scenario. With actual TTM EPS of 21.80, JD is quoting at around 25 PE against Google's average PE of 30.Comparison to Google's free search popularity and ad revenue JD is nothing and paid search concept may be a fiction. Reasonable PE of JD may be around 20-15, even after considering their "Search Plus" and planned "JD-OMNI" application (which is also dubbed as "Mother of all application" by the management !!). JD's proposed buy back of shares at price up to 1550 per share for around 11 lac shares (record date 04/12/2015) translates that the company will buy back only 2-3% from the market ( i.e. on average 2-3 shares per 100 shares). As on 02/12/2015 (T+2), closing price of JD was around 915. Clearly, big investors, who sold some of their holdings after that, may now covering that for tendering the same for buy back by the company, which will start from 25/02/2016. Investors has to pay also 10% capital gain tax for such offline buy back process. Thus the buy back is not looked so rosy as it apparently seems. *As par BG metrics and current market scenario:* (based on actual TTM & projected FWD EPS) Present median valuation of JD may be around: 485 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuation might be around: 455-485-520 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA JUSTDIAL21.895.46 15 552.69 411.68 482.19 934.16 518.3 JUSTDIAL19.25 114.5 15 519.36 386.86 453.11 934.16 518.3 JUSTDIAL21.75 137.75 15 552.06 411.21 481.64 934.16 518.3 JUSTDIAL25.05 165.85 15 592.46 441.31 516.88 934.16 518.3 *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vqL5BKL-DzI/VsaMRZv7EmI/GL4/_fwHirWnDcQ/s1600/JD-18-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ss5hu8PwLxs/VsaMTB8JfZI/GL8/tW12_dTAg0o/s1600/JD-FIBB-18-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2TVyCAefcC0/VsaMVHecrsI/GMA/CvDfSxLQeW4/s1600/JD-WK-18-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jiWz2vJmA5A/VsaMXaBt0_I/GME/6qhSQ0qjGxA/s1600/JD-TL-18-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6O7JgJ2qxrM/VsaMZY7nlBI/GMI/w7eLzATpuIw/s1600/JD-PATTERN-18-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2sC7bBVfgYY/VsaMbVQAhAI/AAAAGMM/JtAvl-n2MUU/s1600/JD-PATTERN-MT-18-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA CERTIFIED -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23968] Fwd: Nifty Fut(Feb): Need To Sustain Abv 7285-7375 For Further Rally
Forwarded Message Subject:Nifty Fut(Feb): Need To Sustain Abv 7285-7375 For Further Rally Date: Mon, 22 Feb 2016 08:52:23 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For NF, only consecutive closing above 7375, expect 7625-7700 zone;* *Otherwise, may again fall towards 6940-6855 area * We may see a lackluster budget (non-event ??) in the coming week And current parliament session may be another wash out for high political drama Globally, all eyes will be on the actual action of the CB(s) And any co-ordinated approach in the forthcoming G-20 meet in China *Trading Levels: Nifty Fut (Feb)* SGX-NF: 7215 (CMP) NSE-NF: 7205 (LTP) SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR For Intraday Swing Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 72857305-335* 7375-4107435-495* 7545-5657590-625* <7265 Weak < 72657245-225* 7195-1507135-100* 7075-0206975-940>7285 FOR ConservativePositional Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 72857335* 74107495* 75657625-700* <7265 Weak < 72657225* 71507100* 70206940-855* >7285 *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Zi3SHAwbF3U/Vsp9r5gIhFI/GNs/Qch7nChZeLY/s1600/NF-19-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EugaS0kBunQ/Vsp9tfx2P7I/GNw/yzyPUI5N5oY/s1600/NF-FIBB-19-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OxXa8HWkt3Y/Vsp9wf-hKaI/GN4/zC3F_1VpMjo/s1600/NF-TL-19-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nEiEHlMeU_Y/Vsp9yb6HsOI/GN8/zWqpngc-18U/s1600/NF-PATTERN-19-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sJKIS5uri8c/Vsp9z_qdmAI/GOA/ddbGMAS8keU/s1600/NF-EW-19-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mr0ziL9u7xs/Vsp9vO-CQ1I/GN0/nDHigR6Gtz4/s1600/NF-WK-19-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23921] Fwd: SBI: Ahead Of Result---145-135 Zone Will Be Vital In The Nr. Term
Forwarded Message Subject:SBI: Ahead Of Result---145-135 Zone Will Be Vital In The Nr. Term Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 08:18:18 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com For any strength, SBI need to stay above 168-178; Otherwise it may fall towards 145-135 zone; And consecutive closing below 145-135 area, can crash towards 100 zone *CMP: 159* * * *Either sell below 162-158 or on rise around 168-178;* * * *TGT1: 145-135* (1-30 days)* * * *TGT2: 120-100*-85-79 (12-24M)* * * *TSL> 181/190* Note: Consecutive three days closing above 181-190 zone for any reason, SBI may further rally towards 210-220*-245 zone (alternative bullish case scenario). All eyes will be on the Q3FY16 result of SBI today amid capitulation of PSBS for RBI's AQR stance. RBI may change its stance in the forthcoming policy review after Q4FY16 balance sheet clean up of the Indian banking system. Street is estimating Q3FY16 PAT for SBI at around Rs.3250 cr against Rs.2910 cr (YOY) and Rs.3879 cr (QOQ). Analysts are estimating that net NPA may fall by 0.3% to around Rs.28592 cr (QOQ). Most importantly, fresh slippages may be higher due to ongoing RBI's AQR and consensus figure is around Rs.5750 cr against Rs.5875 cr (QOQ). But there is some market talk that SBI may report an astounding figure of around Rs.25000 cr for fresh slippages as par the present RBI AQR in Q3 & Q4FY16. Interestingly, for the last two day, SBI's CD swap jumped by nearly 0.2% and reached highest level since Aug'2014. Technically, for SBI, 145-135 zone is a strong support zone for any rebound and consecutive closing below this zone for any reason, it may fall towards 100 area in the mid to long term. *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dfnk8LQG8Mo/VrvykSk8GQI/GFU/yIvi1QiRDEw/s1600/SBI-M-10-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LbuDnsB4pB4/VrvymjScazI/GFY/9n9mrEqk57o/s1600/SBI-FIBB-10-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VWzujzzxbtg/VrvyoZtt-0I/GFc/kh_YQ1k9pTw/s1600/SBI-MA-M-10-02-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8iSSdWeha3c/VrvytG2FhGI/GFg/U-Lsvy2bdlQ/s1600/SBI-PATTERN-10-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qYDkPxbe89w/VrvyvHMW4eI/GFk/BN_antzhZaE/s1600/SBI-TL-10-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_6QPz-PPNFA/Vrvywy29GtI/GFo/E4KAaFEyNUM/s1600/SBI-EW-10-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24008] Fwd: Ultratech Cem: Need To Stay Abv 2875-2930 For Further Strength
Forwarded Message Subject:Ultratech Cem: Need To Stay Abv 2875-2930 For Further Strength Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2016 09:09:31 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For Ultratech, only consecutive closing above 2875-2930, expect 3300-3400;* * Otherwise, it will be weak and sustaining below 2745-2660 zone, * *may fall up to 2580-2385* Recent cement deal with JP for Rs.16500 cr may face various regulatory hurdle And may also be EPS dilutive in the initial years due to interest pay out for the assumed debt Actual consolidated TTM EPS is at 80.94 and present PE of around 34 may be bit expensive; Whereas 25 may be a ideal PE for the cement industry under the current market scenario *Trading Idea:* CMP: 2769 Sell either below 2745 or on rise around 2850-2875-2905; TGT1: 2660-2580*-2460-2385 (1-3M) TGT2: 2320-2275-2195-1950 (12-24M) TSL> 2930 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 2930 zone, Ultratech may rally up to 3015-3105-3145 & 3200-3255 and 3280/3300-3400 in the short/mid to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). Although cement & steel industry apparently benefited form the yesterday's (2016) "Rural" budget due to some infra push, but lots will depend up on the actual implementation and its effect of the earnings on the beneficiary companies. The 2016 budget may be termed as "Political" budget aimed at wooing the rural voters in the series of forthcoming state elections and even eyeing the groundwork for the 2019 parliament election. The only positive & surprising thing is the FRBM roadmap & reported fiscal deficit figure amid projected unrealistic tax & telecom spectrum revenue expectations. As balance sheet of telecos are already stretched quite significantly and PSBS may be not in a position to fund those ambitious telecom spectrum auction target (around Rs.92000 cr), it may be quite difficult for the Govt to meet the revenue target. The only immediate driver for the market may be the expected rate cut (0.25-0.50) by the RBI in the near future (another Holi Gift to the nation ?). But given the current tepid sentiment of the global as well as the local market, it is very doubtful, how its going to help our market significantly. Also there will be question of proper transmissions by the banks as only 60% of previous rate cut actually transmitted to the borrowing consumers/economy. In the present scenario, 7000 may be the new normal of the Nifty (6300-7000-7700) in the near term. *As par BG metrics & current market scenario:* (based on actual TTM & projected FWD EPS with average PE of 25) Current median valuation of Ultratech may be around: 2390 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 2335-2470-2650 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA ULTRACEMCO 80.94 693.85 25 2390.17 2382.30 2386.23 2823.29 2804.71 ULTRACEMCO 77.25 766.7 25 2335.05 2327.36 2331.21 2823.29 2804.71 ULTRACEMCO 86.44 847.25 25 2470.05 2461.91 2465.98 2823.29 2804.71 ULTRACEMCO 99.45 936.15 25 2649.42 2640.68 2645.05 2823.29 2804.71 *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-53U_RgNsMBA/VtUM9SX4oBI/GTg/qD2RIwoV55c/s1600/UT-29-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-01UCnPEL_qY/VtUM_E2X_iI/GTk/LQ9FlPPoOuU/s1600/UT-FIBB-29-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-acFInkRoqLk/VtUNBKJKGeI/GTo/qbJdDTeGAok/s1600/UT-WK-29-02-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KxzIc54NPx8/VtUNDiUXldI/GTs/rdWaxedOuEc/s1600/UT-PATTERN-29-02-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-21Kzq0Ha5uA/VtUNH5XF8sI/GTw/Qx9YWs_Vpew/s1600/UT-TL-LT-29-02-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QfG9lGKh1cs/VtUNTOnqZvI/GT0/72x0kKqxd-g/s1600/UL-TL-29-02-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendatio
[www.niftyviews.com:24072] Fwd: EURUSD: Can A Hawkish FED Sent The EUR Towards Parity in 2016 ?
Forwarded Message Subject:EURUSD: Can A Hawkish FED Sent The EUR Towards Parity in 2016 ? Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2016 21:11:16 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Looking at the chart. consecutive closing below 1.09-1.07 zone, EURUSD may fall towards 1.04-0.98 ( to fulfill Draghi's dream !!). On the other side, only sustaining above 1.13, the pair can rally up to 1.18-1.25 (although this is possible technically, but in reality, Draghi, the man behind the ECB's stance of "everything but the kitchen sink" will simply not allow it, because the whole QQE policy is designed for keeping EURUSD in the range of 1.15-1.05 or lower towards parity-1.00 to stimulate EU exports/economy). *Trading Idea: EURUSD* CMP: 1.1074 Either sell below 1.10 or on rise around 1.11042-1.1220 TGT1: 1.0825-1.0715-1.05235-1.04 (1-3M) TGT2: 1.00-0.98 (6-12M) TSL> 1.1375-1.15 *Note*: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1.1375-1.15 zone for any reason, EURUSD may further rally up to 1.18-1.25 in the near to long term. Today there is virtually no probability of FED rate hike and all attention will on the language of FED statement (hawkish/dovish/neutral), latest economic projection, Dot Plot forecast, forward guidance/Q by Yellen. In order to justify the FED's Dec'15 rate hike, Yellen may take some hawkish stance amid improving job data, CPI but wage growth and consumer sentiment may deter the FED with ultra hawkish script. FED may indicate that barring some "unforeseen" circumstances (like global/ China market turmoil in Jan-Feb), it may hike by 0.25% in June'16, just before the forthcoming US presidential election time. Traditionally, FED will be in the hibernation mood in election time and after June, it may think of some action only in Dec'16, depending up on the next Govt's economic policy (Trump seems like more hawkish and Clinton on the dovish side). But, in reality, in US, such economic policy matter is highly dependent on FED/ US Senate/Cong and there may not be any big directional change, even if Trump wins. FED basically may project only two hike (June/Dec'16) instead of four hikes in earlier dot plots, which may be seen as slightly hawkish (USD will gain strength for 1/2 hours/days and then come down). On the other side, FED may choose not to experiment with the market before the election time as ultimately the last hike in Dec'15 (after nearly ten years) caused the global market turmoil in Jan-Feb'16 (although triggered by slump in Oil and China jitters/Yuan devaluation). No Govt will like to face a presidential election with a market turmoil !! Also, too much strong USD will not be good for US economy also and some other economic data may be pointing towards a "mini/luxury-recession" in US too !! In the days ahead, apart from the above factors of Oil/Commodity and China, Brexit may be a real threat for FED to take a "wait & watch" stance rather than taking any real action (verbal intervention). China/PBOC will also continue their mini/targeted stimulus frequently and this may also increase the probability of more Yuan devaluation apart from USD outflow fears and Chinese banks NPA/NPL/recapitalization issues. On the other side, ECB/BOJ are ready with "anything" to stimulate their economy (QQE), but it seems that central bankers are increasingly "out of ideas" for more unconventional economic policy and ultimately some appropriate "structural reform" is required to stimulate the "real street" rather than the "buy back" rally in "Wall Street" on the back of "easy money". Thus the divergent monetary policy between FED & ECB/BOJ/PBOC will make the USD stronger wrt to almost all the G-6 currency and consequently EURUSD may drift to near parity by the end of 2016 (1.07-1.04-0.98). If Oil is stabilized between $30-40, the present inverse correlation between EQ/Oil & safety of Yen may change and old inverse correlation of USD & EQ (i.e. strong USD may be bad for EQ in the days ahead after a temporary EQ rally). *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-i7dwdCUIUfY/Vul5wpEsL0I/GgQ/DG11MGw-xHEDJujuh-7MmMj_7xqdGaKgA/s1600/EURUSD-16-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wMIcvYRURkM/Vul508ApBzI/GgU/oEzxY4PEcf8jh3w3fawXPNomwmQ20rPTw/s1600/EURUSD-FIBB-16-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-i4NIgHRzDt4/Vul53PWILII/GgY/7GaD4VC15Q8FBsc1dm6xnZY-6zwr_Q_WA/s1600/EURUSD-WK-16-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wZ8BrOnobRo/Vul57H-gFtI/Ggc/I3A0_aGb-hY-G-keNeXEPbrWu19PHwEmw/s1600/EURUSD-PATTERN-16-03-3016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PN0fJ7xxHWg/Vul58hDuvFI/Ggg/ALSLrZwY0KErXBxF67GyqtFD6iXtj2xog/s1600/EURUSD-TL-16-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-z7uLk7Q59B8/V
[www.niftyviews.com:24059] Fwd: Gold: Ahead Of BOJ & FED, What's The Chart Is Saying ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Gold: Ahead Of BOJ & FED, What's The Chart Is Saying ? Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2016 07:25:21 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Gold need to sustain above 1285-1295-1310 for further rally up to 1345-1392-1435; otherwise it will come down and sustain below 1250-1235 zone, it may fall up to 1190-1135-1039 zone again.* *Trading Idea: Gold* CMP: 1250 Either sell below 1250 or on rise around 1285-1300; TGT1: 1225-1190*-1163-1135 (1M) TGT2: 1095-1075-1050-1039* (3M) TSL> 1310 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1310 for any reason, Gold may further rally up to 1345-1360-1392 & 1435 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level). March may be called the month of the central bankers and in the coming week, apart from BOJ & FED, there will be SNB and BOE: *BOJ*: Expected to maintain the statusco as it just lowered the rate to negative zone in Jan'16 to (-) 0.01%. BOJ is under immense pressure domestically for this sudden NIRP and may revise the the cut off CA balance above $90 bln and no fresh QQE until July'16. *FED*: Expected to be on "Hold" with a "slightly hawkish" script and keep probability of another rate hike @0.25% in July & Dec'16. FFR is now indicating 50% & 70% probability of a hike in July and Dec'16 on the back of recovery in stock market ( S rallied by around 12% from the recent bottom), decline in $ index (USD), blockbuster job data (although quality of jobs may be debatable), rise in oil prices (which may stimulate overall inflation towards 2%). But as ECB already eased in an unexpected and extraordinary manner, FED may keep its "wait & watch" policy with a "hawkish" stance in order to justify its previous hike. Crude Oil is expected to be in the $40-30 zone in the near term as there will be frequent talk of production cuts, but near $40, more supplies (specially US shale) can come to the market also. Thus there will be no real improvement in demand-supply dynamics and all round production cuts, even by 5% may be a dream and stable Oil around $35 is a less cause of concern for the equity market as it may de-link itself with the present co-relationship. Thus the present divergent QQE/monetary policy between FED and other major central bankers (ECB/BOJ/PBOC) may keep the differential between the cross currencies intact and USD is expected to be remain in strength wrt to EUR & JPY. This will make the Gold relatively weak in USD terms in the near term. But, in this era of competitive currency devaluation and negative yields, thanks to QQE/ZIRP/NIRP etc, appeal of Gold will be there as a physical asset for at least positive yield/return in the mid to long term. *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lx1RG5kdm3w/VuYWUig2fhI/Gdg/WrU2QdKSL3o2839MJ0VYzPkFLtC_d-Y5w/s1600/Gold-11-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Plr817XVxok/VuYWXGA-DOI/Gdk/rQ1L7NQKFcQSzR5BecmeIH2T47a6gnhwQ/s1600/Gold-Fibb-13-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BtpX5L_3uAQ/VuYWZTkLTKI/Gdo/xaVpzfHAIbY67Cw1N8nfuW-CAlVP5Iebg/s1600/Gold-WK-13-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8gdZFYNI8Xg/VuYWa38I9TI/Gds/nDK6C4Ku9FA1spN6P_ad6DfOLbx3jNixg/s1600/Gold-TL-11-03-3016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ReMlI6-yufk/VuYWdBLZbRI/Gdw/3LnyUPLSfFk4VHZ17aOzEoCMZvbmq0aMg/s1600/Gold-Pattern-11-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-f_y9EEDVwGo/VuYWfEn6MqI/Gd0/jNAw3PVK1mgoYII7Ngka0LMBioVwBKlFg/s1600/Gold-EW-11-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24060] Fwd: Yes Bank: Need To Sustain Above 820-835 Zone For Further Rally
Forwarded Message Subject:Yes Bank: Need To Sustain Above 820-835 Zone For Further Rally Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2016 09:28:13 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, Yes bank need to sustain above 820-835 zone for further rally up to 910-930-101; Otherwise it may face selling pressure and sustain below 805-790 may fall again towards 710-665 area. * * *Trading Idea: Yes Bank* CMP: 800 Either sell below 805 or on rise around: 820-835; TGT: 770-728-710*-691-665*-631 (1-3M) TSL> 850 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 850, for any reason, Yes Bank may further rally up to 910-930 & 1015 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). Although Yes Bank performed quite well on the back of its retail strength and below expected stressed assets (RBI-AQR), going ahead, incremental average PAT growth around 25% YOY may be difficult to maintain on the retail franchise only and deterioration of corporate loan accounts with lack of corporate loan growth may hurt. Retail loan volumes can't be a substitute for corporate credit growth in the long run and when corporates are in severe stress, retail will bound to follow it later. As par BG metrics and current market parameters: TTM EPS: 57.11 (FY:15) Projected FWD EPS: 59.40-65.50-71.80 (FY:16-18) Avg PE: 15 Present median valuation of Yes Bank may be around: 805 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 820-860-900 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA YESBANK 57.11 277.93 15 795.34 805.48 800.41 738.42 757.36 YESBANK 59.4375.05 15 811.13 821.47 816.30 738.42 757.36 YESBANK 65.5450.5 15 851.76 862.62 857.19 738.42 757.36 YESBANK 71.8540.25 15 891.78 903.15 897.47 738.42 757.36 Analytical Charts: <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YmB-SWgVn9o/VuYyLvOWOkI/GeE/A3n-_WE-fPocUG5nVETtGPOQH2FPrM_Wg/s1600/Yes-11-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8M0QO1RT-O0/VuYyN0TcERI/GeI/nlZ0WjEfNLI39Nu6IYQrc_5weN-nuuiyg/s1600/Yes-FIBB-11-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HgN8uluYNno/VuYyPRA_Q8I/GeM/oPAu1qw4NyYy8lg9SsqVuLQEXAA836WXw/s1600/Yes-WK-11-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3dWP6FM_ELE/VuYyRp00SPI/GeQ/n48vZPal4ZkhIPaVj_7DzO1VIob95IOhA/s1600/Yes-TL-11-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dMmahmfxY64/VuYyUPUKQLI/GeU/4MDQrI8wECsbvFTG4Eb098jO7s_uNApcg/s1600/Yes-Pattern-11-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RDzQ1zWYcRY/VuYyWV-rc0I/GeY/O_0H3jm5m1wmk_2oL3pyj7S0LCmcYyQXA/s1600/Yes-EW-11-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24036] Fwd: Hindalco: Dead Cat Bounce Is Over For Metals ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Hindalco: Dead Cat Bounce Is Over For Metals ? Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2016 09:10:36 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Hindalco has to stay over 86-96 for any further strength;* *Otherwise it will be weak and below 83-77 may fall towards 55-40 area* Last two month's Chinese trade data may be an indication of more pain in the metals, despite Chinese Lunar New Year holiday factor On the ground, there is no visible improvements of demands in steel/metals despite hopes of more Chinese stimulus With TTM EPS at 1.99, Hindalco may be quoting at an exorbitant PE of 40; whereas 15-20 may be more reasonable PE in the current situation despite protection by the Govt *Trading Idea:* LTP: 83 Either sell below 83 or on rise around 86-90; TGT: 77-68-55*-40 (1-3M) TSL> 93-96 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 96 for any reason, Hindalco may further rally up to 112*-120-130-142 in the mid to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). *As par BG metrics & current market scenario:* (based on standalone TTM & FWD EPS) Current median valuation of Hindalco may be around: 58 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuation might be around: 46-50-55 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA HINDALCO1.99180.41 20 59.75 54.35 57.05 89.69 74.21 HINDALCO1.72184.05 15 48.10 43.76 45.93 89.69 74.21 HINDALCO1.98187.75 15 51.61 46.95 49.28 89.69 74.21 HINDALCO2.4 191.5 15 56.82 51.69 54.26 89.69 74.21 *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OZX99bMwSQw/Vt-ZaxCg87I/GZI/_-E_DNJjFEY/s1600/Hindalco-08-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0EbmYyMOo3A/Vt-ZdHHCHzI/GZM/8DEQ6gFAeLg/s1600/Hindalco-Fibb-08-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DBz4HLqkuew/Vt-ZfVYGN1I/GZQ/F-5uhra1RgM/s1600/Hindalco-WK-08-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4eemZzZgBOI/Vt-Zj7SCPHI/GZU/GM3_8IZ9BoQ/s1600/Hindalco-TL-08-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oNLhkkRh9p8/Vt-ZmDQLDdI/GZY/SKmdZjCvb3U/s1600/Hindalco-Pattern-08-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3cmV0EtPzWY/Vt-ZoEccLRI/GZc/bGMs8ddXhpI/s1600/Hindalco-TL-LT-08-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24054] Fwd: S Fut: Has To Sustain Over 2020-2030 For Further Rally
Forwarded Message Subject:S Fut: Has To Sustain Over 2020-2030 For Further Rally Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2016 23:13:09 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea:(SPF)* CMP: 2016 Sell around 2020-2030; TGT: 2005-1980*-1920-1885-1845-1790* (1-3M) TSL> 2040 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 2040 zone for any reason, SPF may further rally up to 2075-2095 and 2110-2135 in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario) Draghi came out with a "Bazooka" and eventually fired all the shots, but in the epic press conference admitted that he may be fast out of further ammunition (with a caveat that till conditions/inflation did not pick up). Now, with oil stabilizing between $40-30 in the near term, lower base effect may not be there on the inflation and we may see a hawkish Fed with "hold" stance to keep the differential between USD & EUR. In this way Fed may manage the divergent monetary policy between it and ECB/BOJ/PBOC. Despite all these, SPF rallied by only 1% so far from yesterday's Pre-ECB level (1995), but it has already rallied around 12% from the recent bottom (1804), which is showing that all the recent central bank's action (FED/ECB/BOJ/PBOC) may be already discounted by the market to a great extent. On the other side, yesterday's ECB and recent BOJ action prove that Central Bankers are increasingly in a panic & desperate state of mood and may be soon out of ammunition. Ultimately, recent commodity"boom & bust"indicating that its the "easy money" (QQE), which is largely responsible for reckless addition in production without the corresponding real demandand further QQEor even NIRP/ZIRPmay not help the "real street"as expected. *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lUnWgQdz_gg/VuL7E_DkcjI/GcY/um-DFExZyg4Khk5Iz_6hLhzdjX1NKAWrA/s1600/SPF-11-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TN0dhrBPU4Y/VuL7HqyB9uI/Gcc/LnjosQk5ta08KYkVJjyDx3kFUm6DFSsoQ/s1600/SPF-FIBB-11-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zPF8SPW6qFg/VuL7KKZvplI/Gcg/wxQziDpKIWUhTyfb-qeDMtj3YvQdlM2vQ/s1600/SPF-WK-11-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eAl0U8aWsH0/VuL7PMFrKsI/Gck/BkrUB1nm080cvQVTqy8DJkKO09M4WcxOw/s1600/SPF-PATTERN-11-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3x_eNBM2tLY/VuL7RHt9QUI/Gco/OziLXjYR0ZgXP4tnUoRXiUu4y2CdOH8VQ/s1600/SPF-TL-11-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3OBxnLFJHfY/VuL7TGT56RI/Gcs/T9z9GzB9UbEAg2e6CdbrYOu7lqHoFGX1w/s1600/SPF-EW-11-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24076] Fwd: Tata Steel: World's Most Indebted Steel Co With Cons Debt of Around Rs.70000 cr ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Tata Steel: World's Most Indebted Steel Co With Cons Debt of Around Rs.7 cr ? Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2016 09:24:11 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, TS need to sustain over 310-320 for further rally up to 360-385; otherwise it will face selling pressure and sustain below 294-285 may fall again to 270-255 zone. *Trading Idea: Tata Steel* CMP: 296 Either sell below 294 or on rise around: 306/310-320/326; TGT: 270-255-238*-222-211-200 (1-3M) TSL> 335 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 335 for any reason, TS may further rally up to 360-385* and 450*-475-530*-580 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). There may be counter reaction by the consumers/importers of steel against MIP and they have already approached HC in this issue, which may ultimately dragged to the SC level. MSME and other consumers of steel are also complaining of raw materials (steel) price hike which is affecting their business profitability/export etc and are demanding similar stimulus for their own industry also. Going by the present & projected domestic demand supply dynamics, India has an excess capacity in steel without the import factor and in the near future may be continue to be in that state as various Govt & Pvt expansion plan is indicating a projected supply of 300 MT by 2025 from present level of around 100 MT.. Even if, all the budgetary proposal for infra/housing push will be actually implemented demand of steel is projected to grow around 5.5-7.5% CAGR, which may be far lower than the projected capacity by 2025. Last five years total accumulated loss of TS is around Rs.6552 cr (cons). *Analytical Charts:* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9qqQT-Siph8/Vut45lx5I9I/Ghw/mco8os9vND4oFXdsT_-SqaMS-syUSersg/s1600/TS-17-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aAMkq2UNVeU/Vut48oQElXI/Gh0/EbaAutliu-wxUcbSwhiluF0Hn4KgPEFNw/s1600/TS-FIBB-17-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3EExs3qTiJI/Vut5B_M_ayI/Gh8/kNjFNaagHtElOvJqD6z9yKjuaFPT6_wIA/s1600/TS-PATTERN-17-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AAu6PFRwAXI/Vut5DE4smVI/GiA/XKbT_KvhAxAllutwqgijvGUiVlZmayu5g/s1600/TS-TL-17-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W79n9v_nNSM/Vut5Fu4aniI/GiE/3DWtIJ-bvvszY0U1uk9zq_s56KQCVPqsg/s1600/TS-TL-MT-17-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-N_yNfSSnAEY/Vut5AvOz01I/Gh4/19vpSqIqfAATt6tV41eczvmMsV6LjDh0w/s1600/TS-WK-17-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24073] Fwd: Nifty Fut (Mar): Need To Sustain Abv 7650-7710 Zone For Further Rally
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut (Mar): Need To Sustain Abv 7650-7710 Zone For Further Rally Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2016 09:12:30 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, NF need to sustain over 7650-7710 zone for further rally up to 7750-7800-7930-8005 zone. Otherwise, selling pressure may come and sustain below 7590-7540, it may fall towards 7485-7400-7290 zone again. *Trading Idea: NF-MAR* SGX-NF: 7605 Either sell below 7625 or on rise around 7650-7680-7710; TGT: 7540-7485-7400*-7290 (1-5 days) TSL> 7750 *Note*: Consecutive closing(3 days) above 7750 zone for any reason, NF may further rally up to 7800*-7930-8005*-8055 in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level). As par early morning SGX indication NSE-NF may open gap up around 7620-7600 area after FED indicated that it may hike only twice instead of four as par previous dot plot. Although, it was widely expected, the overall tone of Yellen was somewhat more dovish than market expectation as FED lowered US economic projection (projected 2016 US GDP from 2.6% to 2.2% and inflation from 1.6% to 1.2% which may be increased above 2% by 2018). Overall FED is worried about US wage & global growth (China/Canada/Mexico/EU). As par Yellen's own admission in the Q, FED's rate projections (dot-plots) are merely an indication/probability and not a promise for action. Yellen is also worried about US exports, business investments, drilling activity and not overly worried about effect of higher oil prices on inflation. Now, all the above FED stands are already discounted by the market including the projected two hikes in 2016 instead of four. Frankly speaking, no one expected FED to hike four times in 2016 and majority of the market participants are expecting either a June hike (before US election) or in Dec'16 (after US election), if FED sticks to its own script and there is no major market turmoil. Still, FED is talking about two more hikes in 2016, while no other major central bank is talking about it and BOJ/ECB/PBOC may actually lower the rate (QQE/NIRP/ZIRP). Thus the talk of policy divergence between FED and other G-10 universe may make the USD stronger in the days ahead and old inverse correlation of strong USD & weak EQ (risk assets) may return instead of flying to the safety of Yen. After all, even after dovish FED, SPF rallied by only around 1% and now trading around 2020. It need to sustain above 2030-2040 for further strength, otherwise it will come down. For our market, RBI may be more dovish after FED stance and may cut 0.25-0.50% either before Holi or on 5-th Apr. But going by the price action, a rate cut of 0.50% may be largely discounted by the market already. Looking ahead, actual rate cut transmissions by the banks, Q4 results and ability of the Govt to carry forward vital economic reform in an effective way will be the keys. Twin balance sheet issues (PSBS and some of the highly indebted corporate groups) and falling popularity of NAMO may be some of the concerns for our market in the days ahead. *Analytical Charts:* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vDTpEW6RYFM/Vuol0cOI8-I/GhA/lq12wFoak7YZUxLGUhwqj1TxQ6RNQslsQ/s1600/SGX-NF-17-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QcNFfWnaJoQ/Vuol17rryPI/GhE/P2-XW5m6fbYOH5WeeM3eftFc5qKKeKpIA/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-17-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Lwfkt7ybmQ0/Vuol4xhfTSI/GhI/AxykktWeTy4ODoS7w_nD1tiKYACp18P3Q/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-17-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KydGRodj1xQ/Vuol7K_npdI/GhM/uM5QqsRwqBQmr3jPvysxLaOki51DEH8MA/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-17-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TRGTaMKX9EE/Vuol9P8QOQI/GhQ/bGnqWzBnK4oWyK5gZu3lreAIDlMBvZ6Ww/s1600/SGX-NF-TL-17-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nPiAvCKSG2w/Vuol_K7U_7I/GhU/PQcKF81E4ScmIgMsAUS3E_gQnyK-jQ3ZA/s1600/SGX-NF-EW-17-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message bec
[www.niftyviews.com:24067] Fwd: JSW Steel: Group Debt Bomb Ticking---Another Prospective KFA ?
Forwarded Message Subject:JSW Steel: Group Debt Bomb Ticking---Another Prospective KFA ? Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2016 09:25:26 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Cons. Debt At Around Rs.35000 cr With Yr. Intt Liability Rs.3500 Cr And Last Five Yrs Avg. Profit Rs.1652 cr. Technically, JSW has to sustain over 1210-1230 zone for further rally up to 1275-1365 area; otherwise it may face selling pressure and sustain below 1160-1140 may fall again towards 1075-1030 zone. *Trading Idea: JSW Steel* CMP: 1195 Either sell below 1210 or on rise around 1230-1250; TGT1: 1160*-1110-1075-1030-998-950* (1-3M) TGT2: 935-870-835-800*-770-740* (6-12M) TSL> 1280 *Note*: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1280 area for any reason, JSW may further rally up to 1365-1400* & 1470 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level). Some interesting data about JSW: TTM EPS: (-) 36.59 NET P/L (AVG FOR LAST 5 QTRS): (-) 104.38 cr Even after the actual implementation of all the budget proposal for infra & housing in India, steel demand is expected to grow around 5.5%, whereas production may grow around 7.5% CAGR. Present (2014-15) production of steel is 92.16 MT & demand is around 76.99 MT; i.e. domestic supply/demand gap is around 15 MT (excluding imports). With out China import factor, India may soon have excess capacity in Steel, if there will be no significant economic recovery. Govt is now planning extra duty on the MIP & landed cost (CIF) differential for suspected over invoicing. But, this type of protection will be counter reproductive and consumers of steel & so called "Make In India" initiative may suffer. MSME & other steel consumers may also want similar stimulus package from the Govt for their own survival. *Analytical Charts*: <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YFUqqnEUSXY/VujVBxpkWfI/Gfg/RKyq1mIv0REBCAuAQvk6HnxRkNLmZfsVQ/s1600/JSW-15-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mSQqkFm1yx8/VujVDTS_NfI/Gfk/K7KC9b8yuR0BstYqnBXtwf2EbgVyLIPzg/s1600/JSW-FIBB-15-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fllF1_aY9Kg/VujVFRvIWSI/Gfo/1rAXDHQ6Mfw01OrVKAyxRTLWxXXTaidIw/s1600/JSW-WK-15-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Vm9nGCQ0Y98/VujVInG-tRI/Gfs/Q60JwIwn4Jgjg6XP-3Zh4A-NgHOovVw_Q/s1600/JSW-PATTERN-15-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xiJ3PG4rRoA/VujVKxuhw4I/Gfw/KDENndCVZKsjoAK8ivjA4V2_vns7J1pEA/s1600/JSW-TL-15-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-INNLwb-qVAw/VujVNSBEN-I/Gf0/tUlWUHy14l4sKbYFNPj_DXyCiErFG_4sg/s1600/JSW-EW-15-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24048] Fwd: Indusind Bank: Will It Be Able To Keep 30% YOY PAT Growth In The Days Ahead ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Indusind Bank: Will It Be Able To Keep 30% YOY PAT Growth In The Days Ahead ? Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2016 09:09:42 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, IIB need to sustain over 940-975 zone for 990 & 1015-1080; Otherwise it will be weak and sustaining below 898-880 may again fall towards 815-800 in the near term In this era of "greed & fear" regarding the present NPA issues of Banks, both borrowers and lenders may "shy away" from large loans; Retail loan growth may also suffer along with Corporate/SME loans in the months ahead *Trading Idea:* CMP: 927 Either sell below 940 or on rise around: 960-975; TGT: 880-855-815-799*-785-750-735-700 (1-3/6M) TSL> 995 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 990 for any reason, IIB may further rally up to 1015*-1030 & 1050-1080 and 1100-1150 in the short to long term (under alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level). *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* TTM EPS: 38.02 (FY:15) FWD EPS: 38.75-41.55-49.65 (FY:16-18) AVG PE: 20 Current median valuation of IIB may be around: 825 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 830-860-940 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA INDUSINDBK 38.02 173.2 20 820.22 822.58 821.40 884.75 889.84 INDUSINDBK 38.75 204.35 20 828.06 830.44 829.25 884.75 889.84 INDUSINDBK 41.55 241.25 20 857.45 859.92 858.69 884.75 889.84 INDUSINDBK 49.65 277.35 20 937.31 940.01 938.66 884.75 889.84 *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-31urwnxyyh8/VuI6TzqPuXI/Gbc/AoYg44ueiF8bUU5n9b50s9_5dAE7yuMWw/s1600/IIB-10-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-s1zctgkaY5k/VuI6Wld48pI/Gbg/ZLavqIr3n14TPk7senemkaEKnd6OzSz_Q/s1600/IIB-FIBB-10-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_DZDzHHaf_Y/VuI6cW8MakI/Gbk/dSpLcnyOWrkg5yspzOjKrtl8c4sU3Dhlg/s1600/IIB-WK-10-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RewivhykOXo/VuI6e2pQe8I/Gbo/AZNQUkU-7kY_vqrhTQVVhe2tR-6rjT8ww/s1600/IIB-TL-10-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c4bPzgBXswg/VuI6hBnJHhI/Gbs/NUHxLIyPv-g3bao0LYk-ZC0oP_0ifs8cA/s1600/IIB-PATTERN-10-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8RX2YEo4L4M/VuI6kQMtrNI/Gbw/1x--oCrtHbQul90FXFNbQl7wObgikqUxQ/s1600/IIB-TL-LT-10-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6__clRaRqwU/VuI6vtdehTI/Gb0/AfjWfAjaeRIkWIdWK-nMzfmmVyiq_wYSg/s1600/IIB-TL-10-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24040] Fwd: Crude Oil: 38.50-40.50 May Be Proved As A Big Hurdle In The Days Ahead
Forwarded Message Subject: Crude Oil: 38.50-40.50 May Be Proved As A Big Hurdle In The Days Ahead Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2016 20:50:37 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Only sustaining above 38.50-40.50 Crude oil can rally up to 46.50-57.50 zone; Otherwise it can again fall towards 29-26 area. All round co-ordinated production cut talk may be a fantasy and basic dynamics of supply demand situation may not be changed by 2016-17. For Crude, 40-30 range may be the new normal in 2016. *Trading Idea:* CMP: 37 Either sell below 38.50 or on rise around: 39.50-40.50; TGT: 33.45-29.10-26.05-24 TSL> 44-46.50 Note: Consecutive (3 days) closing above 46.50 for any reason,Crude may further rally up to 58*-63-70-79 in the mid to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level) * Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cTTmSV3UKWg/VuA7pjSkQQI/GZ0/-ZstpdL48fI/s1600/Crude-09-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RH3j16fvdik/VuA7sKgy0wI/GZ4/6L9IwXxAszA/s1600/Crude-Fibb-09-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nQ__TTLa3mY/VuA7uNLI9gI/GZ8/8l-W5HNh2_Y/s1600/Crude-WK-09-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-B7_sSjLcNM8/VuA7xSfTriI/GaA/hA1R0QGGtW4/s1600/Crude-Pattern-09-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xAzfyDogJz8/VuA77XKTPfI/GaE/6Caq1wGuz6s/s1600/Crude-TL-09-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-91hwp3n__5M/VuA79N_XphI/GaI/5SnV6UwczxQ/s1600/Crude-EW-09-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24126] Fwd: Axis Bank: Need To Stay Above 450-470 Zone For More Rally
Forwarded Message Subject:Axis Bank: Need To Stay Above 450-470 Zone For More Rally Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2016 09:19:19 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, Axis Bank has to sustain above 450-470 zone for more rally up to 490-535 zone; otherwise it may face selling pressure and sustain below 437-427 may again fall up to 411-374 area in the near term. *Trading Idea: Axis Bank** ** **CMP: 444** ** **Either sell below 450-460 or in rise around 470-490;** ** **TGT1: 427-411*-405-387-374-365* (1-3/6M)** ** **TGT2: 348-325*-310-290*-275-265 (12M)** ** **TSL>500** ** **Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 500 for any reason, Axis Bank may further rally up to 520-535* & 570-625*-655 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level).** * Although there may be no disclosure issue about Q4FY16 asset quality issues this time (stressed assets provisions-RBI- AQR), some analysts are expecting incremental higher provision and consequent higher credit costs by around 20-25%. For Axis Bank: Q3FY16 TTM EPS: 34.49 Projected FWD EPS: 34.65-40.50-46.75 (FY:16-18) Average PE: 15 As par BG metrics & current market scenario: Present median valuation may be around: 480 (Q4FY16/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 481-520-560 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median 200-DEMA 10-DEMA AXISBANK 34.49 187.54 15 486.93 471.92 479.43 458.3 430.48 AXISBANK 34.65 217.75 15 488.06 473.01 480.54 458.3 430.48 AXISBANK 40.5 252.55 15 527.65 511.39 519.52 458.3 430.48 AXISBANK 46.75 295.75 15 566.91 549.43 558.17 458.3 430.48 Analytical Charts: -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24177] Fwd: Crude Oil: 42-45 May Be A Big Hurdle Even If Doha Agreed To Some Kind Of Production Freeze
Forwarded Message Subject: Crude Oil: 42-45 May Be A Big Hurdle Even If Doha Agreed To Some Kind Of Production Freeze Date: Tue, 12 Apr 2016 22:10:00 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: Crude* CMP: 41.70 Either Sell below 42-42.60 or on rise around 43.50-45.50; TGT:38.35 - 35.35* - 32.25 - 29.35 - 26.00* - 22.65 (5-30/90 days) TSL> 48.50 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 48 for any reason, Crude may further rally up to 58-60* & 69-78 in the near to mid term. *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3yHJDk3AGw8/Vw0jAdC4EHI/G0s/leGTdByygV4u-0jkIOyyEWCUKorRzz-igCLcB/s1600/Crude-12-04-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2rn7lvy2-QY/Vw0jCDYEuhI/G0w/gMHR0oTOtmE6sA40lpk9GdDJduwExoWgACLcB/s1600/Crude-FIBB-12-04-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TLXejISNzco/Vw0jEVpvtgI/G00/nma_cczsywkqiK_TboByf_O_QMQKgYrEgCLcB/s1600/Crude-WK-12-04-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_SDqU_K_XeU/Vw0jFyBHtkI/G04/-MGkpbR43RYTBfpsRJXAvDDd3SNzuVchACLcB/s1600/Crude-TL-12-04-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HDYthW59E74/Vw0jISLr9AI/G08/cxPNJ59ip7wwT8xe8gnnwREowzIa_nB8gCLcB/s1600/Crude-Pattern-12-04-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8UZ55JO16Vc/Vw0jK2NhqzI/G1A/El3uCVTuJR0Sq5RYne8u59REykYtQE2eACLcB/s1600/Crude-EW-12-04-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24180] Fwd: Infy: Technical Out Look Ahead Of Q4 Result
Forwarded Message Subject:Infy: Technical Out Look Ahead Of Q4 Result Date: Wed, 13 Apr 2016 11:43:12 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Time & Price action indicates that Infy (CMP: 1182) has to sustain above 1195-1210 for 1240-1250 and only consecutive closing above 1260-1285 area, it may rally further towards 1315-1400 zone in the near term. On the flip side, sustain below 1170-1135 area, it may fall towards 1120-1100-1090 & 1055-1030-1010 zone in the short to mid term. *Trading Idea: Infy* ** ** CMP: 1182 Either sell below 1195-1210 or on rise around 1250-1260; TGT: 1135*-1090-1055-1010*-975-930 (1-3/6M) TSL> 1285 *Note*: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1285 for any reason, Infy may further rally up to 1315-1352*-1400 & 1660 in the short to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-38KCy7DlgNI/Vw29c2Gg7HI/G1Y/qc90SJHCW7YAF5bFr54svdz9iaZ858BbwCLcB/s1600/Infy-12-04-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pArB0sxnI2I/Vw29fPmLC9I/G1c/fmQCp9JhVzIkbdVzaGBo8le3Yeh_yUJ-ACLcB/s1600/Infy-Fibb-13-04-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-l56oL_3QozY/Vw29iyPO9_I/G1g/RAAGSe1nTvIl0brT-IeNKaxHSNotWS7VQCLcB/s1600/Infy-MA-12-04-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Y5_hjYbKnJI/Vw29mIPAjQI/G1k/DytBEHWYcZI95C7NduMZLreJcUpeYdc-wCLcB/s1600/Infy-Pattern-12-04-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ddPVct4ObR4/Vw29oGA6mMI/G1o/KsQJu9trnbMDr_raN-ev5mTfQKDA8F07wCLcB/s1600/Infy-TL-12-04-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8kyB1Zoe7qw/Vw29q_OAp2I/G1s/20UkKzgAgSA1Im8JnE0EshXgiAwgxX9uACLcB/s1600/Infy-EW-12-04-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24168] Fwd: Nifty Fut(Apr) Update: Sustaining Below 7540 Zone, Expect 7400-7200 Area In The Near Term
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut(Apr) Update: Sustaining Below 7540 Zone, Expect 7400-7200 Area In The Near Term Date: Mon, 11 Apr 2016 09:34:02 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com SGX-NF: 7568 (CMP) NSE-NF: 7583 (LTP) *Consecutive closing below 7540, NF may further fall towards 7400-7305-7200-7145 (5-15 days).** ** **NF will gain some strength only sustaining above 7600-7645-7680 area.** ** **The above updated view on the NF is based upon the trading idea posted on 1-st Apr as:** ** **Either sell below 7780 or on rise around 7825-7875-7890;** ** **TGT: 7720-7680*-7590-7540*-7400-7345-7305-7275 (5-15 days)** ** **TSL> 7915 ** ** **( SL +/- 25 points from TSL)** ** **Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 7915 for any reason, NF may further rally up to 7980-8015* & 8050-8080 in the short term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level).** * As par early morning SGX-NF indication , NSE-NF may open around 7570 after gaining some support from the 7540 zone following better than expected CPI data in China, which came around 2.3% against estimate of 2.5%. Market is expecting that lower inflation data may pave the way for more rate cuts/stimulus by PBOC in the near future, although another 0.25-50% cut may be already discounted. Looking ahead, China's Q1 GDP, trade balance and IIP, retail sales data may dictate the global market as Fed is overly concerned about China and any positive data (better than expected), may influence the Fed's stance (dovish/hawkish) in the near term (June'16 Fed meeting). Also, any positive China data may influence commodity currencies and base metals to a great extent. There is not so much important US data this week for any change in Fed's dovish stance till its April meeting and the list of Fed speakers (jokers ?) is also not impressive to influence the FX/global market (USD). So, all eyes will be on the China data along with USDJPY, which broke the year long support of 110 last week following Abe's comments that BOJ will not intervene actively in the FX market as par G-20 commitment and Japan being the host country of the forthcoming G-7 meeting. This stance was then corrected by Abe's advisor/spokesperson Suga that G-20 commitment does not mean to overlook "one sided" currency movement. In any way, USDJPY is now eyeing 107-105 level, which is also a strong technical support zone, BOJ may wait for some time in order to complete the capitulation and then intervene physically rather than verbally. So, after G-7 meeting, we may see some real BOJ action, but Fed's dovish stance is causing a concern on JPY and other G-10 currencies and this may be a real catch-22 situation for the major G-10 central bankers going ahead. Back home, although RBI's 0.25% cut is below expected, but there was some silver lining too in the form of liquidity management of banks and ultimate lowering of cost of funds for proper transmission of rate cuts, which may the most important aspect. So far, banks has transmitted only 0.6-0.7% of the total 1.50% repo rate cuts by the RBI and there is all round pressure on them to transmit at least the previous full 1.25% cumulative rate cuts in FY-16. But, going by the NPA/provisioning issues, banks may not be in a position to do that in the near term as this will impact its NII/NIM heavily. Apart from rate transmission issues by banks, all eyes will be on the forthcoming Q4 results and although expectations are very timid, further guidance may dictate the next market movement to a great extent. Also prediction and actual happenings of monsoon this year will influence the rural economy and RBI's mind about inflation (specially food) and before Aug, we can't expect any real RBI action to cut rate further. Market will also watch any possibility of passage of GST & bankruptcy bills in the forthcoming Parliament session and results of the ongoing state elections. Going by the present political tug of wars between the main parties (BJP/INC), hopes of any consensus on GST passage are looking very thin at this stage. Although, some BJP leaders and our FM is also claiming that after June, Govt may be in a position to pass the GST bill in RS without Cong's support because of better permutations & combinations of RS seats then, but in reality, its going to be a tall order for the Govt. Cong may change its mind to let the GST pass in the RS because of some thinking that GST may aggravate inflation in our economy by 2019 mainly because of impact of enhanced service tax from the present 15% to 18%. As in 2019, there will be Parliament election, any increased inflationary impact on the Indian economy may help the Cong and put the BJP in the back foot !! So, we have to see, if the Govt/BJP is truly serious about GST passage & implementation at this stage and also in
[www.niftyviews.com:24079] Fwd: Bank Nifty Fut(Mar): May Be Already Discounted More Than 0.25% Probable RBI Rate Cut !!
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty Fut(Mar): May Be Already Discounted More Than 0.25% Probable RBI Rate Cut !! Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2016 09:33:07 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, BNF need to sustain over 15800-16000 zone for further rally up to 16500-17150; otherwise, more sellers may creep in and it may fall 15200-14600 zone in the near term. Trading Idea: BNF-MAR CMP: 15685 Either sell below 15750 or on rise around 15800-15850-16000; TGT1: 15600-15480-15212*-15011-14919-14830 TGT2: 14700-14619*-14499-14370-14130-14000 TGT3: 13812-13541-13405*-13345 TSL> 16100 (+/- 50 Points) Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 16100 for any reason, BNF may further rally up to 16210*-16350-16475*-16615-16965-17150* in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario). Going by the deposit rate cuts in various saving instruments by the Govt on last Friday, it seems that RBI is gearing for 0.25% rate cut on or before policy date and banks has to transmit the total 1.50% of rate cut to the borrowers/economy in a phased manner. On an average, Banks has transmitted around 60% of the previous rate cut of 1.25%. As there are significant balance sheet stress and NPA issues, it may be very difficult for the banks to pass on the entire rate cut benefit to the borrowers, especially for the PSBS. Present NPA recovery issues may also deter fresh normal lending and business activities in future as there will be an element of fear on both sides (banks & borrowers), if a loan repayment is failed for any unforeseen circumstances. As par some reports, Govt may merge twenty eight PSBS in to 4-6 major PSBS with SBI/BOB/PNB as some of the "lead banks". But, considering the strong political unions in the banking sector, such M activity may not be so smooth and may take considerable time. Already, bank unions are blaming higher management and political connections for the present NPA situation. Also, Govt's proposal to bring down the savings rate at one go will not be taken good by the savers and there may be black lash against it like the previous PF issues. Govt need to start this lowering of deposit rates at least two years ago in an incremental manner. India need to have a lower real rate of borrowing costs (max 4-5% bank loan interest) for the survival of the industry/MSME as the traditional higher rate of interest for decades may be one of the reason for the present state of stressed assets in the banking sector and corporates/MSME are also in significant stress (dilemma of twin balance sheet issues). Globally, after the G-20 inspired rally (BOJ/ECB/PBOC/FED), there will be "Buy Back" blackout period from today till next six weeks, which may keep the SPF in pressure. Analytical Charts: -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24083] Fwd: Apollo Tyres:Victim Of Chinese Imports & Cross Currency Headwinds ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Apollo Tyres:Victim Of Chinese Imports & Cross Currency Headwinds ? Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2016 09:23:34 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, ATL need to sustain above 185-190 & 200-210 zone for further rally up to 250-270 area; otherwise it may face selling pressure and sustain below 177-167 will again fall towards 151-127 zone in the near term. Trading Idea: Apollo Tyres CMP: 178 Either sell below 185-190 or on rise around: 198-205; TGT: 172/167*-151-143-137-127 (1-3M) TSL> 210 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 210 for any reason, ATL may further rally up to 230-250 & 270 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). As par BG metrics and current market scenario : Cons. TTM EPS: 22.71 (FY:15/TTM) Projected FWD EPS: 22.35-25.80-29.90 (FY:16-18) Avg PE:10 Current median valuation may be around: 195 (FY:15-16) Projected fair valuation might be around: 210-225 (FY:17-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median 200-DEMA 10-DEMA APOLLOTYRE 22.71 99 10 194.87 196.92 195.90 167.22 170.75 APOLLOTYRE 22.35 117.35 10 193.32 195.35 194.34 167.22 170.75 APOLLOTYRE 25.8 139.05 10 207.71 209.89 208.80 167.22 170.75 APOLLOTYRE 29.9 164.85 10 223.60 225.95 224.78 167.22 170.75 Analytical Charts: -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCF,-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24092] Fwd: TVS Motors: At PE Of Around 40, May Be Running Much Ahead Of Fundamentals
Forwarded Message Subject: TVS Motors: At PE Of Around 40, May Be Running Much Ahead Of Fundamentals Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2016 09:25:22 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, TVS has to sustain over 325-335 zone for further rally up to 350-365; otherwise, selling pressure may intensify and below 322-309 may again fall towards 280-255 zone in the near term. Trading Idea: TVS Motors CMP: 317 Either sell below 322-325 or on rise around 335-345; TGT: 309-295*-280-267-255*-240 (1-3M) TSL> 355 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 350 zone for any reason, TVS may further rally up to 365-375-386-402 & 422-450 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level). For TVS, recent deal with SNAPDEAL to sell its bikes/scooters on its online platform and launching of new models along with hopes of revival in rural spending (favourable budget) & OROP disbursements may be some of the triggers. TVS may also launch an entry level BMW-TVS bike (G-310R) for an expected price tag of around Rs.2 laks. But there may be some doubt about the success of SNAPDEAL platform as majority of the 2-W customers will prefer to try a bike/scooter off line (physically) at the dealer space and then go for a buying decision. In any way, the recent surge in price may have discounted the above sets of good news for the scrip and 325-335-345 may be a good supply zone for the scrip. Valuation as par BG metrics & current market scenario: Actual TTM EPS: 8.53 Projected FWD EPS: 8.80-9.70-11.75 (FY:16-18) Average ideal PE:20-25 Current median valuation may be around: 245 (FY:15) Projected fair valuations might be around: 250-260-290 (FY:16-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median 200-DEMA 10-DEMA TVSMOTOR 8.53 34.63 25 238.68 249.40 244.04 267.15 291.67 TVSMOTOR 8.8 40.05 25 242.43 253.31 247.87 267.15 291.67 TVSMOTOR 9.7 46.25 25 254.53 265.95 260.24 267.15 291.67 TVSMOTOR 11.75 55.85 25 280.13 292.71 286.42 267.15 291.67 Analytical Charts: -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24028] Fwd: India's 2016 Budget And The Fiscal Math (Myth) Behind 3.5% Fiscal Deficit Projection
Forwarded Message Subject: India's 2016 Budget And The Fiscal Math (Myth) Behind 3.5% Fiscal Deficit Projection Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2016 17:56:37 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *The "most important" fiscal deficit is projected as 3.5% of nominal GDP;* ** *But in real terms, it may be 3.9-4.6% * In 2016 budget, apart from the projected fiscal deficit figure, there are absolutely nothing new, which may be unknown to our market. *Projected Fiscal Math of the Govt for FY:17 (approx in Rs. cr) * Total receipts: ** Divestment in PSUS: 36000.00 Divestment in SUTTI: 20500.00 --- Total divestment target: 56500.00 (up by 123% against FY-16 figure of Rs. 25312 helped by LICI) Tel/Spectrum auction: 99000.00 ( up by 125% against FY:15-16 average figure of Rs.44000) Gross tax revenue:1221522.00 (up by 11.7% against FY-16 RE) Capital receipts:601038.00 (up by 3.8% against FY-16 RE) -- Total receipts: 1978060.00 (up by around 10.8% against FY-16 RE of Rs.1785391) Revenue deficit:354015.00 ( against FY-16 RE of Rs.341589 and FY-15 actual Rs.365519) Fiscal deficit:533904.00 (against FY-16 RE of Rs.535090 and FY-15 actual Rs.510725) Absolute nominal GDP: 15065010.00 (assuming 11% growth over FY-16 number against 8.6% RE) FD/Nominal GDP: 3.5% (Approx projected for FY-17 against FY-16 RE of 3.9%) *Add: 7-PC impact: * 102000.00 (For FY-17 Rs.73650 + Arrears Rs.18412 + OROP Rs.1) *Less: Govt BE* :(-)4.00 ( Govt allocated Rs.225000 cr against FY-16 RE of Rs.185000 cr) --- *Net 7-PC/OROP*: 62000.00 ( under allocated for FY-17 7-PC/OROP impact excluding railways) *Pending FF subsidy*: 10.00 (approx amount of pending food & fertilizer subsidy bill) --- *Approx unaccounted*:162000.00 ( pending expenses for cash accounting system instead of accrual) * * *Actual total FD*:695904.00 (reported fiscal deficit figure of Rs.533904 + Rs.162000 approx) *Actual FD/GDP*: 4.6% ( after accounting the full 7-PC impact for FY-17 & FF subsidy burden) 3.9% (if only 7-PC impact is accounted properly for FY-17) As par various reports, total states & central gross/consolidated fiscal deficit may be above 8% of the gross GDP for India. For China, its may be around 2.4% for 2015 (which they are planning to increase to 3.5% over the years to stimulate its economy). Now, from the above math, its clear that some of the revenue and expenditure projections are made on the higher and lower side: *1. Divestment in PSUS/SUTTI: * Govt projected a 123% hike from the actual figure of Rs.25312 cr to Rs.56500 cr. In the last year, Govt had assumed Rs.69500 cr through disinvestment proceeds, but so far may have collected only Rs 25312 cr (with the last minute NTPC OFS of Rs.5000 cr). But in this regard, LICI came to the rescue of the Govt time to time in a major way and effectively, its can't be called a disinvestment, because in true sense, LICI money is moving from one arm of the Govt to another (i.e. transfer of assets). Given the present condition of the market, the projected disinvestment figure is looking too ambitious and if the Govt resorts to distress selling, it may lead to more price erosion in the market for the PSUS (say Coal India, ONGC etc) and even for the SUTTIS ( like ITC, Axis Bk, L etc). Govt should have thought of massive disinvestment, when market was around 8500-9000 and sentiment was good and not in the current state of "gloom & doom" scenarios, where 7000 may be the new normal of the market in the foreseeable future. Another point that, some of the analysts are pointing out is the accounting treatment of disinvestment proceeds (asset sales). As par IMF rules, any kind of assets sales by a Govt needs to be treated as a "financing item" rather than "revenue receipt" as the Indian Govt is doing now to come up with a lower fiscal deficit figure. Its like a company selling its assets/stakes and accounting the total proceeds into its revenue/PL, rather than considering only the capital gain/loss portion. Any way, any kind of receipt is a "revenue receipt", whatever be its origin and that's the way the Indian Govt is accounting it for the years. *2. Ambitious telecom spectrum auction projection:* GOI projected around Rs.99000 cr for FY-17 on this account against the actual figure of Rs.57384 cr for FY-16 and Rs.30616 cr for FY-15 (total collected for around Rs.88000 cr with an average of Rs.44000 cr in CY:2015-16). Thus GOI projected an increase of around 74% from the actual FY-16 figure and a whooping 125% from the average
[www.niftyviews.com:24033] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Mar): Has To Sustain Over 15650-800 Zone For Further Strength
Forwarded Message
Subject: Bank Nifty (Mar): Has To Sustain Over 15650-800 Zone For
Further Strength
Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2016 09:08:44 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
BNF need to stay above 15650-800 zone for further rally up to
16055-16580-17150;
Otherwise, it will face selling pressure and sustain below 15600-460 area,
It may again fall towards 15215-14750-13800
Going by the price action, expected rate cut by RBI (0.25-0.50%)
may be already discounted to a great extent
In the near term, too little recapitalization issue may drag the banks
despite talk of mergers of PSBS ("Gyan Sangam") and recent RBI measures
of T1 capital
*Trading Levels: BNF-Mar*
LTP: 15392
SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROMSLR
For Intraday Swing Trader
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 15650 15750-800* 15865-900 15975-055* 16125-235
16300-350 <15600
Weak < 15600 15500-460* 15435-300 15250-215* 15150-125
15030-810 >15650
FOR ConservativePositional Trader
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 15650 15800* 15900 16055* 16235 16350-580
<15600
Weak < 15600 15460* 15300 15215* 15125 14810-750
>15650
Analytical Charts:
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yUfmaiRTz1c/Vt5H1-3AXtI/GYY/6OFXKxuoE3E/s1600/BNF-FIBB-04-03-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JrJvko4JJpQ/Vt5H39Fo2hI/GYc/iSHboUfsC9E/s1600/BNF-WK-04-03-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yqBg7mRpv_8/Vt5H6J9h8-I/GYg/yYx8djmpBfM/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-04-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AYn3POyDJHY/Vt5H8al6jUI/GYk/bvnzjWnw7BI/s1600/BNF-TL-04-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QCFNfLYkBto/Vt5H-BeEezI/GYo/DiMFYfwn5Kw/s1600/BNF-EW-04-03-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2w140uiTMn0/Vt5H0lIb7NI/AAAAGYU/mfr7OiALulU/s1600/BNF-04-03-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
http://www.niftyviews.com/
Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of
www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion
and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum
doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or
iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target;
---
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[www.niftyviews.com:24019] Fwd: Adani Ports: Has To Sustain Abv 230-240 Zone For Further Strength
Forwarded Message Subject:Adani Ports: Has To Sustain Abv 230-240 Zone For Further Strength Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2016 09:09:15 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com For APSEZ, consecutive closing above 235-240 area, it may rally further towards 280-300 zone; Otherwise it will be weak and sustain below 215-211 zone, may again fall to 195-170 area Continued global & India slowdown may hurt cargo movements and earnings; Q3FY16 result indicated that the much expected conversion from bulk-dry cargo to liquid and container cargo is not happening With TTM EPS at 12.61, the more reasonable PE may be around 15 instead of 20 in the current and expected overall weak trade scenario (Risk: Fast changing political scenario; probable absence of NAMO wave in 2019 election; and huge consolidated debt on the Adani group) *Trading Idea:* CMP: 228 Sell either below 230 or on rise around 235-240; TGT: 211*-195-170-150 (1-3M) TSL> 246 *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 246 for any reason, APSEZ may further rally up to 270*-280-290* & 300-320*-375 zone in the short to long term (alternative bullish case scenario for the current trading level). *As par BG metrics & current market scenario:* (based on consolidated TTM & projected FWD EPS) Current median valuation of APSEZ may be around: 215 (FY:15-16/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 225-240 (FY:17-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA ADANIPORTS 12.61 51.98 15 225.59 198.42 212.00 269.05 208.14 ADANIPORTS 12.75 62.415 226.84 199.52 213.18 269.05 208.14 ADANIPORTS 14.05 74.95 15 238.12 209.44 223.78 269.05 208.14 ADANIPORTS 16.25 89.915 256.09 225.24 240.67 269.05 208.14 *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9M-V9KlfO5o/VtkAMLvpMvI/GWQ/86L4N0WPCIs/s1600/AP-03-03-3016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UQtF1Dvzi2U/VtkAOObEljI/GWQ/0KhJHsYn4Y8/s1600/AP-FIBB-03-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UMzK3XWSeR0/VtkAP0Q6pvI/GWQ/p_TgGQ8dxXk/s1600/AP-WK-03-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_lhNig4CerI/VtkAR2jOykI/GWQ/Ma2T_QyoyKM/s1600/AP-PATTERN-03-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UDhwjhqSqjE/VtkAVKSeDwI/GWI/-0YMtPwU-M8/s1600/AP-TL-03-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4hO3lxH-wD0/VtkAYrgdmeI/GWM/u1zp2yes_Qk/s1600/AP-TL-MT-03-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24014] Fwd: M : Dilemma Of Reality In Infra Cess/EV Concern And Hopes Of Rural Economy/Agri Push
Forwarded Message Subject: M : Dilemma Of Reality In Infra Cess/EV Concern And Hopes Of Rural Economy/Agri Push Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2016 09:11:24 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com M will gain more strength only sustaining above 1285-1335 for targets of 1382-1445 Otherwise, may be turned weak and will again fall towards 1210-1090 Near term impact of infra cess and EV concern may outweigh Hopes of future (long term) benefit in rural/agri push. (There may be big concerns regarding good/even distribution of monsoon this year too !!) Actual TTM EPS (Standalone) of M is at 52.99 And its quoting at an average PE of 25, whereas 20 may be a more reasonable PE for the auto sector under the increasing regulatory and tax concern (sales may be affected despite 7-PC & rate cut hope) *Trading Idea:* CMP: 1268 Sell either below 1285 or in rise around: 1315-1335; TGT: 1240-1210*-1150-1090* (1-3M) TSL> 1360-1385 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1385 for any reason, M can further rally up to 1405-1445*-1480 zone in the short to mid term (alternative bullish case scenario). *As par BG metrics & current market scenario:* (based on actual standalone TTM & projected FWD EPS) Current median valuation of M may be around: 1150 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 1185-1250-1325 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA M 52.99 310.09 20 1145.95 1139.08 1142.52 1239.11 1224.3 M 56.95 353.5 20 1188.00 1180.88 1184.44 1239.11 1224.3 M 63.5403.25 20 1254.46 1246.94 1250.70 1239.11 1224.3 M 70.85 459.55 20 1325.07 1317.13 1321.10 1239.11 1224.3 *Analytical Charts:* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JWmGoSYR6WA/VtZfGNT8kII/GUU/rjKfqQEL0zI/s1600/M%2526M-01-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Pg3CgOCJf6M/VtZfHzLUnlI/GUY/XOLmV285ABg/s1600/M%2526M-FIBB-01-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3K7TEq5U0M0/VtZfKQ3UeJI/GUc/p8VfQBtwtiI/s1600/M%2526M-WK-01-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qlHBbkRO9C4/VtZfMNa-tDI/GUg/eygECUNkauc/s1600/M%2526M-TL-01-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-i8Jpo0JNAWs/VtZfPyobmhI/GUk/n46rr_Mwcwc/s1600/M%2526M-TL-MT-01-03-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RDVrDS02dN8/VtZfRqYaX7I/GUo/Vcf1fR5MlrQ/s1600/M%2526M-PATTERN-01-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24018] Fwd: Hero Motors: Will Be "Hero" By Only Sustaining Abv 2870-2910
Forwarded Message Subject:Hero Motors: Will Be "Hero" By Only Sustaining Abv 2870-2910 Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2016 10:22:06 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For HM, consecutive closing above 2870-2910 zone, * *target may be around 3300-3500;* *Otherwise, it will be weak and below 2800, * *can fall towards 2725-2450 area* Staggered nature of 7-PC and tepid consumer mood may affect highly expected incremental sales growth, despite hopes of rural push (Any possibility of bad monsoon this year will also affect sentiment) *Trading Idea:* CMP: 2806 Sell either below 2800 Or on rise around 2870-2910; TGT: 2725*-2625-2570-2470*-2450 (1-3M) TSL> 2940 Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 2940 for any reason, HM may further rally up to 3020-3110-3180-3270 & 3500 zone in the short to long term (alternative bullish case scenario) *As par BG metrics & current market scenario:* (based on TTM & projected FWD EPS with avg PE at 20) Current median valuation of HM may be around: 2700 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 2860-3075-3315 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA HEROMOTOCO 139.95 327.58 20 2686.53 2709.97 2698.25 2578.58 2623.77 HEROMOTOCO 157.15 370.25 20 2846.84 2871.67 2859.25 2578.58 2623.77 HEROMOTOCO 180.75 418.45 20 3053.12 3079.76 3066.44 2578.58 2623.77 HEROMOTOCO 210.85 475.85 20 3297.56 3326.33 3311.94 2578.58 2623.77 *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XH0v8_wxNPU/Vte6j15c7YI/GVI/EWIciS4NBvg/s1600/HM-02-03-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z5qzRh5fxGc/Vte6lrwCU-I/GVM/CXoV8zWEkMI/s1600/HM-FIBB-02-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JujSf5IGpck/Vte6rYoGVSI/GVQ/y4ma7uB7LcY/s1600/HM-WK-02-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-due--NiRT2k/Vte6tD9ipuI/GVU/XML2syah3Ow/s1600/HM-TL-02-03-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-llggzbf2Bi8/Vte6vEX3JbI/GVY/ph7Y2JjWNmI/s1600/HM-PATTERN-02-03-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8Lk0KnxoMQc/Vte6x_NAxoI/GVc/OnxZZpqmDpU/s1600/HM-TL-MT-02-03-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24137] Fwd: Bank Nifty(Apr): Need To Sustain Abv 16350-550 For Further Rally, Even If RBI Cut By 0.50%
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty(Apr): Need To Sustain Abv 16350-550 For Further Rally, Even If RBI Cut By 0.50% Date: Mon, 4 Apr 2016 09:28:09 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, for BNF, sustaining above 16350-16550 zone, we may see 16700-16900*-17150 zone in the short term On the other side, sustaining below 16315-16140 zone, BNF might face intense selling pressure and may fall towards 15750-15205-14600 area in the near term. Trading Idea: BNF-Apr *CMP: 16244** ** **Either sell below 16350 or in rise around 16450-500;** ** **TGT: 16060-15950-15750*-15445-15205-15050-14800-14600 (5-15 days)** ** **TSL> 16550** ** **(SL=+/- 50 points from TSL)** ** **Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 16550 for any reason, BNF may further rally up to 16700-16800-16900*-17150 & 17350-17580*-17750-17805 in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level).* As par some calculations, CPI may reached around 4.5% by March'16 and based on that assumptions and other tepid macro data and good fiscal management by the Govt, RBI may try to kick start the economy/investment cycle by lowering rate by 0.50% to 6.25% (in that case RRI would be around 1.75%, which will be in the preferred range of RBI at 1.5-2%). In contrast to the above view, some other analysts are apprehending that RBI will wait for monsoon forecast and actual distribution of the same along with effect of 7PC on the wage inflation till Aug'16. Only then it may cut by another 0.25%, if actual CPI hovered around 4.5% till then. So, going by the recent price action, BNF may be already discounted for RBI rate cut of 0.25% and even by 0.50% to a great extent. If, RBI cut only by 0.25%, then market/BNF will be sold off and even it cut by 0.50%, then after a brief rally of around 200 points, it may again sold off (Another "Buy on rumour and sell on news" ?). If RBI cut by 0.50%, market may take this as end of rate cut cycle in FY-17 unless CPI drastically fall below 4%. Also there will be issues of rate cut transmissions by banks and this time banks can't complain about relatively higher interest rate in small saving instruments as an issue for passing of rate cut benefits to the borrowers. The main issue will be the ability of the stressed corporates/MSME to borrow further and bank's (specially PSBS) ability to extend credit further too amid huge NPAS and liquidity problem. Any action by RBI to enhance the immediate liquidity issues ( CRR/SLR/MSF cut ?) may also help the BNF to some extent. BNF rallied by more than 22% since budget day low in the last one month and technically may be in an extreme overbought zone. In the daily EW cycle, BNF may be in the 5-th wave (impulsive) and already rallied by over 300% of the length of 1-st wave and if it does not sustain above 16350, then the next corrective A-wave may bring it to around 14500 zone. Sustaining above 16350, the above scenario may be invalidate and BNF may further rally up to 16550-16800 zone where it may face some good resistance. Analytical Charts: -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blgspt.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24102] Fwd: Nifty Fut(Mar): Rallied More Than 13% In The Last 30 days---What's Next ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut(Mar): Rallied More Than 13% In The Last 30 days---What's Next ? Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2016 09:06:51 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, NF need to sustain above 7760-7825 zone for further rally up to 7915-8005; otherwise we may see some selling pressure and sustain below 7672-7632 it may fall towards 7560-7415 zone again. *Trading Idea: Nifty Fut (Mar)** ** **SGX-NF: 7690 (LTP)** ** **NSE-NF: 7728** ** **Either sell below 7710-7760 or on rise around 7800-7825;** ** **TGT: 7672-7632*-7560-7485-7415*-7365-7300-7240 (1-5 days)** ** **TSL> 7860** ** **Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 7860 for any reason, NF may further rally up to 7915-8005 & 8055-8100 zone in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level).** * NF made a smart rally of more than 900 points (13%) from the budget day low in a span of less than 30 trading days. As the budget delivered not so much negativity as feared by the market ( specially no change in LTCGT and service tax), market recovered on the back of massive short covering/some value buying. Global market (SPF) also recovered by more than 13% from the Feb'16 low after G-20 meeting and some apparent co-ordinated action by 4 major central bankers of the world (PBOC/BOJ/ECB/Fed) in the last few weeks. Fed was more than dovish than the market expected and FFR is now basically indicating only 1 rate hike probability in Dec'16. But, in the last week, after series of Fed speakers (drama), USD gained some strength as talk of April "live meeting" or June hike possibility again resurfaced. Also, Fed transcript of press conference after March Fed meet is causing some confusion regarding the possibility of every meeting being "live or dead" !! Last Friday's data of US GDP (Q4 revision) was at 1.4% against expectation of 1%. Though this GDP is pointing towards no apparent recession in US as feared by the market, but falling corporate profitability (core) may be a concern. Apart from China, Oil, Brexit, possibility of Trump being the next US president may be a major headwind for the "risk on" rally as USD will gain more strength. Thus Fed may wait till outcome of US election for its next step and in that scenario, Dec'16 may be an ideal time. Back home, after budget 2016 projected a fiscal deficit of 3.5%, market has already discounted 0.50% rate cut by RBI on 5-th Apr'16. So, even if RBI cut by 0.50%, the repo rate will be 6.25% and the RRR will be around 1.25% (Avg CPI 5%), which may be in the lower range of comfort zone for RBI (preferred range of RRR 1.5-2%). In that scenario, market will take that rate cut cycle is over in the near term and will focus again on the fundamentals ( deteriorating corporate earnings and huge NPA of PSBS; i.e. twin balance sheet issues of India) and we may see selling/long unwinding. Market will also watch forthcoming state elections & BJP's prospect there along with Govt's ability to pass the GST & other important reform bills in the RS. But, going by the present political situation and falling popularity of NAMO, it may looks tough. Analytical Charts: -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24116] Fwd: Cipla: 490-460 May Be A Very Good Demand Zone--Are US FDA Issues Are Peaking ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Cipla: 490-460 May Be A Very Good Demand Zone--Are US FDA Issues Are Peaking ? Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2016 09:42:38 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Price & time action on the technical chart suggests that Cipla has very good support around 490-480-460 zone and sustaining above 495-505, it mat target 530-555 in the near term. On the flip side, consecutive closing below 460, it may further fall up to 405-365 in the worst case scenario. *Trading Idea: Cipla** ** **CMP: 503** ** **Either buy above 495 or in dips around 480-470;** ** **TGT: 530-555*-582-605*-630-660 (1-3-6 M)** ** **TSL< 460** ** **Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) below 460 for any reason, Cipla may further fall towards 430-415-405*-380-365* in the near to mid term (alternative bear case scenario from the current trading level).** * In the last few months several plants of Indian pharma cos (DRL/Lupin/Cipla/Sun/Cadila/Natco) has come under US FDA scanner. It seems that Indian pharma cos are increasingly making themselves as "soft targets" of US FDA and even drug regulators of other countries, such as UK are targeting them. Apart from quality, raw material, GMP, the main issues are involved here is data integrity and going forward, its highly expected that pharma cos will get their act together and resolve these recurring issues. There may also be a political angle to it, specially in the US election year (from affordable quality drugs, local employment to political donation). Thus, if Indian pharma cos will able to resolve these US FDA issues by being more serious about US quality standard and data integrity, the current US FDA fiasco may be termed as "peaking". For Cipla (Consolidated): Current Q3FY16 TTM EPS: 20.99 Projected FWD EPS: 23.00-26.75-30.45 (FY:16-18) Average PE: 20 (Current PE around 25 against industry average 30) As par BG metrics & current market scenario: Present median valuation may be around: 490 (Q3FY16/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 515-555-590 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median 200-DEMA 10-DEMA CIPLA 20.99 134.19 20 504.83 470.63 487.73 607.08 527.62 CIPLA 23 148.35 20 528.45 492.65 510.55 607.08 CIPLA 26.75 163.95 20 569.90 531.30 550.60 607.08 CIPLA 30.45 181.25 20 608.04 566.85 587.45 607.08 527.62 As par DCF/EV method, current valuation of Cipla may be around 710 and projected (FY:17) value may be around 850. EV NET DEBT EV TO EQ NO OF EQ SHARES O/S PROJ.FAIR VALUE 58403.65 1701.76 56701.89 802960440.00 706.16 70084.38 2382.50 67701.88 802960440.00 843.15 Analytical Charts: -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24127] Fwd: Nifty Fut (Aprl): 7825-7890 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle After Best Monthly Rally In The Last 4 Years
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut (Aprl): 7825-7890 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle After Best Monthly Rally In The Last 4 Years Date: Fri, 1 Apr 2016 09:31:36 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Looking at the chart, NF (LTP:7784) has to sustain above 7825-7875-7890 zone for further rally up to 7980-8015 & 8050-8080 in the short term. On the other side, sustain below 7780-7720, NF will be weak and may further fall towards 7680-7590 & 7540-7400 in the next few trading sessions. *Trading Idea: NF-Apr** ** **SGX-NF: 7746 (CMP)** ** **NSE-NF: 7784 (LTP)** ** **Either sell below 7780 or on rise around 7825-7875-7890;** ** **TGT: 7720-7680*-7590-7540*-7400-7345-7305-7275 (5-15 days)** ** **TSL> 7915 ** ** **( SL +/- 25 points from TSL)** ** **Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 7915 for any reason, NF may further rally up to 7980-8015* & 8050-8080 in the short term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level).* Nifty rallied by over 13% in the last one month on the back of "above expected" budget and apparent G-10 co-ordinated monetary easing/stimulus (BOJ/ECB/PBOC) or "above expected" dovish stance/speech by Fed. Now analysts are debating that whether Fed is "Federal Bank Of America" or "Federal Bank Of China" as the current Fed stance clearly undermines all the Fed projections/dot plots etc and market should only look the China/Oil jitters for any further clue. By intentionally deprecating the USD against all the major G-10 currency and specially Chinese Yuan, Fed is basically trying to give China more time to adjust its monetary policy/USD out flow concern and at the same time weak USD also help US business/export. Clearly, Fed is very nervous about the global market stability or the recent turmoil after its Dec'15 token hike and is in no mood to hike further, at least till Dec'16, after the new US Govt will form. All the recent Fed drama may be indicating that Fed will never hike again and may again return to the ZRIP, if not NRIP (like Japan hiked once around 1975 (?) and then revert back) !! But all the dovish talks may be also indicating that Fed is not at all confident on the global economy (China/Oil/metals/EU/Brexit etc) and US growth is also not so strong to return to the targeted 2% inflation in the US. Also, there is virtually no wage inflation in US, which may translate into much bigger consumer spending. Now, even after too much dovish talk, SPF rallied less than 1% and it may be also an indication that market is not interested for more QE, but looking for actual economical growth. Back to our market, its almost anticipated that RBI may cut by 0.50% this time and looking ahead, Q4 earnings, prediction & progress of monsoon, forthcoming state election results and ability of the govt to pass the important reform bills in the RS will dictate the trend. Analytical Charts: -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asighosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24216] Fwd: Indusind Bank: 1055-1085 May Be A Big Hurdle
Forwarded Message Subject:Indusind Bank: 1055-1085 May Be A Big Hurdle Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2016 09:27:49 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: Indusind Bank* *CMP: 1040* * * *Either sell around 1045-1055 or on rise 1085-1100;* * * *TGT: 994*-970-949-935*-895-855*-832-799* (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 1110* *Note*: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1110 zone for any reason, IIB may further rally up to 1150*-1200 & 1280 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). Q4FY16 PAT of IIB printed at Rs.620.35 cr against consensus of 629.20 (YOY: 495.27; QOQ: 581.02). Q4FY16 diluted EPS was at 10.33 against estimate of 10.47 (lagged by 1.35%). Previous median forecast of EPS was at 11.13 (YOY: 9.20; QOQ: 9.68). In short Q4FY16 result of IIB was slightly below street estimate and provision also raised by 20.65% from Rs.177 cr to Rs.213.6 cr (QOQ). But, retail loan momentum is picking up and many analysts are banking up on it with 28% CAGR in EPS and giving a TP of around 1175 in 12 months. *For IIB:* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 39.15 (FY16/Actual-Diluted) Projected FWD EPS: 46.45-55.05-65.25 (FY:17-19/Estimated) Average PE: 22 *As par BG metrics and current market parameters:* Present median valuation of IIB may be around: 905 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair value might be around: 985-1075-1170 (FY:17-19/FWD) INDUSINDBK EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median 200-DEMA 10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 39.15 193.4 22 881.58 922.00 901.79 902.33 986.98 FY17/FWD46.45 215.75 22 960.26 1004.29 982.27 902.33 986.98 FY18/FWD55.05 240.55 22 1045.38 1093.31 1069.34 902.33 986.98 FY19/FWD65.25 268.15 22 1138.11 1190.30 1164.20 902.33 986.98 *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VT-Lh30yC8U/VyGFde5u3qI/G-4/6-ldIgG55AkukG67gdTzOrxy1cZpVqs3wCLcB/s1600/IIB-27-04-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y02NCBArMgI/VyGFe0ZegpI/G-8/Hb0b1yYwT2wfrpREwEkiW58SG-mCAyRKgCLcB/s1600/IIB-FIBB-27-04-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YY_0I15UvGI/VyGFhNgTZfI/G_A/LZTfbqnis64tTaVdsBV9V0THA6gvwX4PwCLcB/s1600/IIB-MA-27-04-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JlYB4ZDJj6k/VyGFkXeijbI/G_E/E_j0hcLbhb4RaFx3JFZI6VAIP63v0khZACLcB/s1600/IIB-TL-27-04-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RpzESx9j_UM/VyGFnE71JCI/G_I/WqN6UTO25ts_lTZJXPMeAh-iVX4R-0glACLcB/s1600/IIB-TL-MT-27-04-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3HycSCo_CgU/VyGFpJ8O0XI/G_M/lPHW-4fVAcsLBJGGyFBExBm7_-Kta-a7QCLcB/s1600/IIB-PATTERN-27-04-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:24214] Fwd: Bharti Airtel: Ahead Of Q4 Result; May Face Strong Resistance Around 366-375 Zone
Simple---Sell Bharti Fut or buy puts as par spot level given below (Sell
366-370 with TSL>376)
On 27/04/2016 10:31 AM, Chandrasekar Raghavan wrote:
how can this be done in futures or options? or day trading
On Wed, Apr 27, 2016 at 7:35 AM, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com
<mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Forwarded Message
Subject:Bharti Airtel: Ahead Of Q4 Result; May Face Strong
Resistance Around 366-375 Zone
Date: Wed, 27 Apr 2016 09:04:53 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> <mailto:asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com <mailto:asis...@gmail.com>
*Trading Idea: Bharti Airtel*
*CMP: 360*
*
*
*Either sell around 366-370 or on rise around 376-386-396;*
*
*
*TGT: 355-345*-325-314*-303-290-280*-260 (1-3/6M)*
*
*
*TSL> 400*
*Note*: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 400 for any reason,
Bharti may further rally up to 420-435* and 453*-470 & 520*-720 in
the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario).
Q4FY16 result and buy back details will be published today.
Consolidated Q3FY16 TTM EPS: 13.63
Consensus Q4FY16 PAT: Rs.995 cr (YOY: 1255.30; QOQ: 1116.90)
Estimated Q4FY16 EPS: 2.49 (YOY: 3.14; QOQ: 2.79)
Estimated Q4FY16 TTM/FY16 EPS: 12.98 (YOY/FY15: 12.97)
Average PE: 20 (Industry PE: 10)
Some analysts are also estimating significantly higher Q4 PAT of
around Rs.1179 cr with some pressure on operating margin/EBITDA
level amid incremental opex for upgradation of network.
All eyes will be also on the ARPU and plan to counter the forth
coming R-Jio aggression along with its ongoing de-leveraging plans
(specially African assets) to prune its massive debt of around
Rs.66367 cr stands as on FY15.
*Analytical Charts:*
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5vPzBieQ8Ak/VyAxSQ_hhAI/G-I/VEptde011Zs8DBSu1K3IWnbEE4-uZUi9wCLcB/s1600/Bharti-26-04-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0bHyLBMi4js/VyAxUPPLxCI/G-M/CA_BVCZ-y7g-z9bSRARMAIwMZHFrlVoWQCLcB/s1600/Bharti-FIBB-26-04-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-45JiHI4Khck/VyAxWYMBFuI/G-Q/_f5MMOLeBS0Bw9GWWnQTiG_BOvTr8mdxwCLcB/s1600/Bharti-WK-26-04-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Mxm8xonkuiU/VyAxY1ImC-I/G-U/tSzvrSYAoGwwg7feqELGKqxfcv03NLD_ACLcB/s1600/Bharti-TL-26-04-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oE_Ra1rNscg/VyAxbUR1WGI/G-Y/qyW4pdNhrBcOElYowt9UGIrhAO2OGSmUQCLcB/s1600/Bharti-TL-LT-26-04-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XCHzL4Zcnjk/VyAxgQgMIPI/G-c/UX2Di5AtSVUawzb0geRt04ci_KIysEIrACLcB/s1600/Bharti-EW-26-04-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com <http://asisghosh.blogspot.com>)
NCFM-TA Certified
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
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<http://www.Niftyviews.com> just provide a platform for the
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STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
http://www.niftyviews.com/
Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The
administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the
authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the
genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or
publish any research re
[www.niftyviews.com:24211] Fwd: Bharti Airtel: Ahead Of Q4 Result; May Face Strong Resistance Around 366-375 Zone
Forwarded Message Subject: Bharti Airtel: Ahead Of Q4 Result; May Face Strong Resistance Around 366-375 Zone Date: Wed, 27 Apr 2016 09:04:53 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: Bharti Airtel* *CMP: 360* * * *Either sell around 366-370 or on rise around 376-386-396;* * * *TGT: 355-345*-325-314*-303-290-280*-260 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 400* *Note*: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 400 for any reason, Bharti may further rally up to 420-435* and 453*-470 & 520*-720 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). Q4FY16 result and buy back details will be published today. Consolidated Q3FY16 TTM EPS: 13.63 Consensus Q4FY16 PAT: Rs.995 cr (YOY: 1255.30; QOQ: 1116.90) Estimated Q4FY16 EPS: 2.49 (YOY: 3.14; QOQ: 2.79) Estimated Q4FY16 TTM/FY16 EPS: 12.98 (YOY/FY15: 12.97) Average PE: 20 (Industry PE: 10) Some analysts are also estimating significantly higher Q4 PAT of around Rs.1179 cr with some pressure on operating margin/EBITDA level amid incremental opex for upgradation of network. All eyes will be also on the ARPU and plan to counter the forth coming R-Jio aggression along with its ongoing de-leveraging plans (specially African assets) to prune its massive debt of around Rs.66367 cr stands as on FY15. *Analytical Charts:* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5vPzBieQ8Ak/VyAxSQ_hhAI/G-I/VEptde011Zs8DBSu1K3IWnbEE4-uZUi9wCLcB/s1600/Bharti-26-04-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0bHyLBMi4js/VyAxUPPLxCI/G-M/CA_BVCZ-y7g-z9bSRARMAIwMZHFrlVoWQCLcB/s1600/Bharti-FIBB-26-04-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-45JiHI4Khck/VyAxWYMBFuI/G-Q/_f5MMOLeBS0Bw9GWWnQTiG_BOvTr8mdxwCLcB/s1600/Bharti-WK-26-04-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Mxm8xonkuiU/VyAxY1ImC-I/G-U/tSzvrSYAoGwwg7feqELGKqxfcv03NLD_ACLcB/s1600/Bharti-TL-26-04-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oE_Ra1rNscg/VyAxbUR1WGI/G-Y/qyW4pdNhrBcOElYowt9UGIrhAO2OGSmUQCLcB/s1600/Bharti-TL-LT-26-04-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XCHzL4Zcnjk/VyAxgQgMIPI/G-c/UX2Di5AtSVUawzb0geRt04ci_KIysEIrACLcB/s1600/Bharti-EW-26-04-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24206] Fwd: HDFC: 1175-1205 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle Despite De-Leveraging Push
Forwarded Message Subject: HDFC: 1175-1205 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle Despite De-Leveraging Push Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2016 09:05:52 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Technically, HDFC (CMP:1132) need to stay above 1160-1175-1205 zone for any rally up to 1250-1275 and 1295-1325 & 1380-1405 in the near to long term. On the other side, inability to sustain above 1160, it may face selling pressure and fall below 1120-1095 zone, it may further drift towards 1065-1045-1010 zone in the near term. *Trading Idea: HDFC* * * *CMP: 1132* * * *Either sell below 1160 or on rise around 1175-1205;* * * *TGT: 1120-1095*-1065-1045-1010*-975*-960-940* (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 1220* *Note*: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1220 zone for any reason, HDFC may further rally up to 1250-1275*-1295-1325-1350* & 1380-1405 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). Some analysts are expecting somewhat muted result from HDFC in Q4FY16 which will include one time exceptional gain of Rs.1220 cr from a 9% stake sale to Standard Life in Aug'15. All eyes will be also on any potential pressure on developer loans in Q4FY16 and as par some news, HDFC may provide around Rs.450 cr as additional provisioning for stressed assets. As par MAQ, valuation of HDFC under SOTP may be around 1168 as below: HDFC core business:685 HDFC Bank: 338 HDFC Standard Life: 60 HDFC Asset Management:34 HDFC Non-Life Insurance:13 Gruh Finance:37 Alternate Assets: 1 Target Price: 1168 *Analytical Charts:* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Baz3mm-yEEQ/Vx2M9yFsPjI/G8s/Ox9rJPoQ7Mcn6cnnkl-TmOPFqL5kZUInACLcB/s1600/HDFC-22-04-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Sq4-XkzbReg/Vx2NAbRq0dI/G8w/RnzpeLS6F7ErU5FHnJCttznIA-fJij38ACLcB/s1600/HDFC-FIBB-22-04-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Q4gufrTDWQI/Vx2NCFUIBSI/G80/khWX5sJoNUErLqJwzHG7eG5nsduFLa00gCLcB/s1600/HDFC-WK-22-04-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Fr6oX2wP1gs/Vx2NF6JZqaI/G84/WdPrsVP1mIQjag1z6jcbjJ0VNzoAuBJLACLcB/s1600/HDFC-PATTERN-22-04-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-odSwK_Ot-0Y/Vx2NIIYjuaI/G88/WTK5sGZ4bKwKSUAXPpv2yw-KUImZ0SR6gCLcB/s1600/HDFC-TL-22-04-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Qc7wW_64x2Q/Vx2NKczj6KI/G9A/9_eAFGXhhkkcxz3RhJujD9cQIpknj0m9QCLcB/s1600/HDFC-TL-ST-22-04-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) RIL Result update:http://asisghosh.blogspot.in/2016/04/ril-ahead-of-result-big-hurdle-may-be.html -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24209] Fwd: HDFC Bank:Sequential Flat EPS Growth (QOQ); 1110-1135 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle
Forwarded Message Subject: HDFC Bank:Sequential Flat EPS Growth (QOQ); 1110-1135 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2016 09:28:23 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: HDFC Bank* * * *CMP: 1093* * * *Either sell around 1100-1110 or on rise around 1135-1155;* * * *TGT: 1075*-1040-1025-1005-990*-960-925*-900 (1-3/6M)* * * *TSL> 1185* *Note*: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1185 for any reason, HDFC Bank may further rally up to 1210*-1230-1255*-1290 & 1330-1350 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario). Q4FY16 EPS of HDFC Bank came at 13.20 against consensus of 13.30 (lagged by 0.75%). *For HDFC Bank:* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 48.20 (FY16/Actual) Projected FWD EPS: 56.95-67.25-79.45 (FY:17-19/Estimated) Average PE: 21 * * *As par BG metrics and current market scenario:* Present median valuation of HDFC Bank may be around: 1035 (FY:16/TTM) Projected fair value might be around: 1130-1225-1330 (FY:17-19/FWD) HDFCBANKEPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low High Median 200-DEMA10-DEMA Q4FY16/TTM 48.2245.29 21 1025.42 1046.28 1035.85 1038.82 1081.5 FY17/FWD56.95 320.9 21 1114.62 1137.29 1125.95 1038.82 1081.5 FY18/FWD67.25 415.55 21 1211.23 1235.86 1223.54 1038.82 1081.5 FY19/FWD79.45 540.95 21 1316.52 1343.29 1329.90 1038.82 1081.5 Analytical Charts: <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Uw4hDBc5qJY/Vx7i03FIdkI/G9Y/jNdes30OIlowp7PUvlFQ8V9HGtIeKHEFQCKgB/s1600/HDFC%2BBK-25-04-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-021cOgmNVoE/Vx7i8JCysYI/G9c/rDtxsORJNYogokT7UxYLyrQEnmn0zfBaACKgB/s1600/HDFC-BK-FIBB-25-04-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wRw6jjszu5Y/Vx7i-U65kdI/G9g/ChxGMLro3fkdhJpTvIu_dBvXDVgBUN_awCKgB/s1600/HDFC%2BBK-WK-25-04-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZqrsROvu3oQ/Vx7jBHH0IKI/G9k/jiBzqfCHedUQNRF-wd_61yrcK2lNfpEqgCKgB/s1600/HDFC%2BBK-TL-25-04-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q6sEFg0Xalk/Vx7jDGu5dOI/G9o/wgHtVYdzh_w0wnoetycAvt-VuyGVaERogCKgB/s1600/HDFC%2BBK-PATTERN-25-04-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q-3ZRnyyDpQ/Vx7jGGmOv9I/G9s/UP5bJuugZFIK2kCJb0d6d6J7LuJD2DpuQCKgB/s1600/HDFC%2BBK-EW-25-04-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24203] Fwd: RIL: Ahead Of Result, Big Hurdle May Be 1090-1110 And Need To Sustain 1030-1010 Zone
Forwarded Message Subject: RIL: Ahead Of Result, Big Hurdle May Be 1090-1110 And Need To Sustain 1030-1010 Zone Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2016 09:08:55 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: RIL* CMP: 1041 Either sell below 1060-1070 or on rise around 1090-1110; TGT: 1030*-1010-998-*965**-945-930-910-*885** (1-3/6M) TSL> 1120 *Note*: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1120 for any reason, RIL may further rally up to *1150**-1165-*1190** and 1215-1250-*1275** & 1290-1340-*1410** in the near to long term (under alternative bullish case scenario). RIL will publish its Q4FY16 result today and the consensus figures are (standalone): PAT: Rs.7022 cr (YOY-6243; QOQ-7218) EPS: 21.68 (YOY-19.30; QOQ-20.30) FY16 PAT: Rs.27119 cr (FY15: 22719) FY16 EPS: 83.78 (FY15 EPS: 70.20) Expected YOY Growth: 19.37% (on the back of superior refining margin and improvement in petrochemical segment) Expected Q4 GRM: 10.8 (QOQ-11.5) All eyes will be also on the telecom ventures (R-Jio) and as par some estimates (SOTP), it may burn cash for RIL for the fast few years and may have negative impact of around 250/- per share. *Analytical Charts:* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qp2SNqckMF0/VxmbMck4D2I/G74/Fn2p9JCe6FkI6SOkW4IEiryCsC94kqtkQCLcB/s1600/RIL-21-04-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4G0I7-Kr7FA/VxmbPsSJ3PI/G78/_86xe5Jf8lgaFuuMWU-2ZXaUZjIYvMZLACLcB/s1600/RIL-FIBB-21-04-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-D4TIOISWn_g/VxmbRsD4tdI/G8A/N7dfCBqXsIYcMXZZXiadlaJ529s_aBbsACLcB/s1600/RIL-WK-21-04-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Rcd01TFNfn8/VxmbTsALSWI/G8E/ibw-Wsl5TPEFIeFbFIxX0jVG6Hv7en9aQCLcB/s1600/RIL-PATTERN-21-04-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/--tWy3ZBCzjI/VxmbWtpfbiI/G8I/LMfNwd-5R8QpsPK9rByim8RDBaOjZv0NACLcB/s1600/RIL-TL-21-04-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4cCf4gW2RpU/VxmbYu7MdmI/G8M/gzi2ZKb5caAl_lpTgyjXM3twpulo_8yCACLcB/s1600/RIL-EW-21-04-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:24289] Fwd: Bank Nifty Fut(May): 17150-350 & 16500-300 Zone Is Vital; Confirmed Break Out Or Break Down Can Lead It To Either 20950 Or 12500 By FY-17
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty Fut(May): 17150-350 & 16500-300 Zone Is Vital; Confirmed Break Out Or Break Down Can Lead It To Either 20950 Or 12500 By FY-17 Date: Wed, 18 May 2016 09:17:53 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *BNF (May): 16795 (LTP)* * * *Either sell around 16960-17060 or 17150-17250 or on rise around 17350-17450; * * * *TGT: 16650-16430-16300*-16195-16040-15890-15715-15500-15250*-15100 * *(5-15 days)* * * *TSL> 17600* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 17600 zone, BNF may further rally up to 17825-18075* and 18150-18600 zone in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level). Except new age private banking space (Yes/IIB/Kotak & HDFC Bk) there is not so much ray of hopes on the present NPA mess(specially for the PSBS) and even ICICI & Axis banks are also badly affected. As par some estimates, the present stressed assets in the Indian banking system may be around Rs.8 lakh cr and by FY-17, it may reach around 11-15 lakh cr (15% of the total loan book may be termed as NPL). Normally, the present NPA mess may be termed as "Full Banking Crisis", specially for the PSBS and except SBI, which is "too big to fall" and strong balance sheet or support of the Govt, all the other PSBS are literally are on the Govt sponsored "ventilator". Now apart form Govt sponsored recapitalization, recovery of NPA is vital for the banks. But as par the Q4FY16 trend (usually higher seasonal recovery for financial year ending pressure), for BOB, actual recovery was around Rs.1492 cr against NPL/Watch list of Rs.42000 cr (i.e. around 3.5% in Q4). At the same quarter, there is fresh addition of Rs.4400 cr NPL (cumulative addition 8515 & recovery 4130). Thus at this rate, it will be very difficult for the stressed PSBS to sustain themselves and only other income (treasury/trading/FX/cross sales) may not be sufficient for their survival. In a country like India, its not possible to close down these PSBS and thus merger among various 27 listed PSBS to less than 10 large PSBS may be the viable alternative for operational synergy. But this merger among various PSBS will take time (at least 3-5 years) among various regulatory hurdles and oppositions of banking unions. Moreover, initially, this type of merger may put more pressure on the principal bank and may be EPS dilutive (for example, recent merger proposal of SBI may be negative for its bottom line for the first 1-2 years) and the benefit of the same may be felt only after 4-5 years. As historically, real rate of interest and other regulatory charges are quite high in India, in comparison to other parts of the developed economy, it may be one of the prime reason for today's NPA mess, where cost of doing business is quite high and not viable (under financing from Indian Banks). Apart from some policy paralysis, project approval delays, tepid global growth and export demand, FX volatility (competitive devaluation), reckless lending & borrowings by banks and some corporates, another reason may be RBI is always "behind the curve" (which may be good for yield hungry bond investors but not good for our real economy). *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sxcK79VBx2Y/VzvjPgyB8MI/HKo/2nAI13E4l6omfTQs2_OENODn8NiNyb_7wCLcB/s1600/BNF-17-05-2016.png> <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1K6-T8zIVDw/VzvjRyWp76I/HKs/0J5z0ROPhko5c7pmUArdPOg3EriXF6C0QCLcB/s1600/BNF-FIBB-17-05-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-F6URU21bUc4/VzvjVl-sKOI/HKw/XgIjC6DlP_c0smVY7uDgYvJgVzF2f5HlgCLcB/s1600/BNF-WK-17-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CqwcXvxeRqQ/VzvjXm0CjqI/HK0/cXL-GjA5VpAji0o6FJrLdGgMh5sSY3HyQCLcB/s1600/BNF-TL-17-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CgOesos1ObA/Vzvje83iUoI/HK4/UbA9YcFh3NI9iDGPsrUV-Y0PkT3DwhngwCLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-17-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rTS856AZVcY/Vzvjgo0T9RI/AAAAHK8/lyP6bBIABZEb8DFc9jEYNvkl6zDe7RkmwCLcB/s1600/BNF-EW-17-05-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or
[www.niftyviews.com:24308] Fwd: JSW Steel: Quoting At 88 PE Of Projected FY17 EPS of Around 15 !!!
Forwarded Message Subject: JSW Steel: Quoting At 88 PE Of Projected FY17 EPS of Around 15 !!! Date: Fri, 20 May 2016 09:41:55 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Idea: JSW Steel* * * *CMP: 1320* * * *Either sell below 1335-1350 or on rise around 1375-1400;* * * *TGT: 1290-1260-1235*-1215-1185-1160*-1100-1050-1030-1015* (1-3M)* *TGT: 995-950-930*-870 (6M)* * * *TSL> 1435* *Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1435 zone for any reason, JSW Steel may further rally up to 1485-1560 & 1615-1700-1810 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level). *For JSW Steel (Consolidated):* Q4FY16 TTM EPS: (-) 32.08 Q4FY16 EPS: 6.74 (AT THIS RUN RATE, IT MAY REPORT POSITIVE EPS AFTER 6 QTRS) PROJECTED EPS: 15.15-17.05-19.10 (FY:17-19) AVERAGE PE: 40 (PRESENT INDUSTRY PE AROUND 8; IDEAL PE SHOULD BE 20) PROJECTED FAIR VALUE: 800 (FY:19) FY16 NET DEBT/EBITDA: 6.33 (ALARMING SITUATION ABOVE 2-4 ??) FY16 NET DEBT/EQUITY: 1.78 *Analytical Charts:* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LWkfGQRK9YY/Vz6JHoUeENI/HMo/OOt6pI7lIQU6Uh-kyf7zc5MFR3xJnVWIQCLcB/s1600/JSW-19-05-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zib5Nb6FGco/Vz6JJMZk-JI/HMs/ubBTm-PryvMHEskz1ieKJkglaYOO5dkxQCLcB/s1600/JSW-FIBB-19-05-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1_sjFAdTy7U/Vz6JKkNE7KI/HMw/B81TTkAkuY42D5zQU3zzptqDZI_p-72-wCLcB/s1600/JSW-WK-19-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--P9E2Jsc6e0/Vz6JMDPqlqI/HM0/IuZwkULSK1klQdnY2M5tbP3eNYR_-KwvwCLcB/s1600/JSW-TL-19-05-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6UjYv5MZjak/Vz6JOQLn61I/HM4/jBgcUfVlFQUmovWPKhHlWy5i9Nh77THngCLcB/s1600/JSW-PATTERN-19-05-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dcpdadtxO38/Vz6JQ5dCQAI/HM8/QjtdSH_b0tspzSPxLnJR_lAOr8vfutlfQCLcB/s1600/JSW-EW-19-05-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
