Re: Odds (was: Re: Drudge reporting Rumsfeld to re-sign)

2006-11-12 Thread Gruss Gott
> Dana wrote: > I think I forgot to post a link about the Drake equation Here's a CF generated article 'bout all that jazz: SETI Institute astronomer Seth Shostak: "The lack of precision in determining these parameters pales in comparison with our ignorance of L." Similarly, Mars Society presiden

Re: Odds (was: Re: Drudge reporting Rumsfeld to re-sign)

2006-11-12 Thread Gruss Gott
> Denny wrote: > Maybe a better example, instead of the stuff I wrote, would be, what > if you come up against a crack coin tosser. That's the best thing about math - it can describe anything physical so you could, in fact, describe the crack coin tosser. But, yeah, that's the problem with statis

Re: Odds (was: Re: Drudge reporting Rumsfeld to re-sign)

2006-11-12 Thread Dana
ya there are a lot of variables. However, if you really wanted to sit down and enumerate them, then assign a probablility to each, you can do that. It's not like trying to decide how likely it is that God scratched his butt when he woke up this morning. I think I forgot to post a link about the Dr

Re: Odds (was: Re: Drudge reporting Rumsfeld to re-sign)

2006-11-12 Thread Denny Valliant
On 11/12/06, Gruss Gott <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Denny wrote: > > Does math prove that just by counting, we're changing the outcome, or > > am I conflating different maths? > > > > The point Dana and Robert are making relates to independent events, > e.g., each flip of a coin. In that case,

Re: Odds (was: Re: Drudge reporting Rumsfeld to re-sign)

2006-11-12 Thread Gruss Gott
> Denny wrote: > Does math prove that just by counting, we're changing the outcome, or > am I conflating different maths? > The point Dana and Robert are making relates to independent events, e.g., each flip of a coin. In that case, each flip is it's own event with the same probability of the "fa

Odds (was: Re: Drudge reporting Rumsfeld to re-sign)

2006-11-11 Thread Denny Valliant
Ok, this is going to be the last long one. I swear. It's easy to be simplistic, as I'm wont to be... I think that in reality a lot more is always going on. Generally. Like, with the coin tosses or combat duty, there are issues like, maybe the practice is making you better at it, maybe you noti