that for Warren.
Only a pretentious pompous ass would believe that I spoke of a uniform
frequency distribution over an infinite range of positive and negative state
populations.
Plainly I was refering to the distribution over the range in which
apportionment actually takes place.
Mike Ossipoff
of using a perhaps unfamiliar substitute for the term divisor
method? Sure.
When you say that it is a divisor method, and you say how to find the
rounding point between consecutive integers a and b, then you have fully
defined the method.
Mike Ossipoff
.
Warren hasn't posted a brief and concise statement of the goal of his
derivation of his method, and a brief and concise outline of the derivation.
Just pages of ramble. If he can't clearly and concisely say what he's doing,
he should consider that maybe he doesn't know.
Mike Ossipoff
test of BF that I referred to was done by Dan Bishop, for
2000 1990.
Mike Ossipoff
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using
math that wouldn't be a problem for a genuine math professor. This professor
sounds more like a pretentious crank.
If Warren is a professor, then he's an incompetent one.
Mike Ossipoff
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. In this instance,
confusion about the range in which a divisor method's rounding rule could
need a disstribution assumption. BF only needs its assumption within a
cycle, not over the infinite number-line.
Confusion and error are evidently Warren's consistent trademark.
Mike Ossipoff
this equation in an earlier email to Ossipoff some days ago.
I reply:
Warren sent me pages and pages of gibberish. I confess that I didn't read
it. His writing doesn't inspire much confidence.
Mike Ossipoff
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awarded to the
cycle's states is as close as possible to the total number of current quota
possessed by the cycle's states.
Mike Ossipoff
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, Bias-Free is
between Hill and Webster. In the long run it will be less biased than
eilther.
Mike Ossipoff
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From: MIKE OSSIPOFF [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Warren EM 2
Date: Tue, 16 Jan 2007 07:57:31 +
Warren said:
well, you never showed us your math, but it is obvious
to me that you messed up
for several reasons
I reply:
I repeately gave instructions for the derivation
to not making many angrily-worded
unsuported claims.
Mike Ossipoff
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the resulting equation solved for R, then R is 1/e.
More specifically, the improper integral is the one between a and R, when a
= 0.
Mike Ossipoff
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needing re-calculation are those of cycles
that have received a seat since their score was last calculated).
(With the 1-seat-minimum requirement, each cycle initially has a number of
seats equal to its number of states that it contains. Instruction #2 is
unchanged.
Mike
seats. The iterative systematic procedures so convenient in
Jefferson, Webster, Hill, Bias-Free, Cycle-Webster, etc., won't work in AR.
Trial and error is needed to find the quota that gives 435 seats.
\
Mike Ossipoff
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In the message that I just sent to EM, I referred to Ds/q. By that I mean
a state's seats minus what one seat per quota would give to it, that signed
difference divided by the state's quotas.
Mike Ossipoff
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a Cycle-Hamilton. It too would be completely
unbiased, but wouldn't have the immediate optimality of Cycle-Webster.
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are minimized by Webster. But I claim that what really
matters is Hill's systematic giving of more s/q to smaller states.
Systematically favoring large or small states is inexcusable for an
apportionment method.
Mike Ossipoff
how many more seats
represent me, compared to how many seats represent you (of course those
numbers are much less than 1).
So s/q difference, rather than its ratio, is what matters.
Mike Ossipoff
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unbiased. Then, Bias-Free and Hamilton should be
offered to Congress, and it would be up to them whether they want the ideal
(Bias-Free), or something less elaborate, and more traditional and
precedented (Hamilton).
Mike Ossipoff
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to
choose the method that gets rid of s/q expectation disparity as judged at a
time _before_ the census and allocation.
Mike Ossipoff
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.
Maybe someone would like to determine the probability of that difference of
the means under the null assumption of no bias. Maybe someone would like to
apply other tests for bias.
Mike Ossipoff
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is difficult to define.
Bias is a systematic disparity in
seats-per-quota expectation for states of different population. Bias-Free
has no bias.
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election
descriptively) Unbiased Roundoff.
Largest-Remander/Hamilton is the only distribution-independent unbiased
method.
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equally well be anywhere between two and three.
So I also retract what I said about LR's unbias being less
distribution-dependant than that of Webster.
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a seat for
no good reason. For that reason we want BF or Webster. BF would be better,
but Webster is simpler, more naturally obvious, and has precedent.
Mike Ossipoff
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table. But never bet what you can't
afford to lose. So, Juho, say your favorite party is proportionally
qualified for one seat. LR might give it one, two, or zero seats. Do you
really want to play double-or-nothing with your representation?
Mike Ossipoff
-looking proofs. The question is: How did Huntington Hill
make their big error? Maybe they were looking for something complicated and
missed the obvious. Maybe they were partial toward something original that
they could call their own.
Mike Ossipoff
I accidentally said that Hill has unbias. I meant to say that it has bias.
Mike Ossipoff
p.s. Right now is close to the anniversary of the date when Webster was
replaced by Hill, for apportioning the House.
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proportions differ. If the transfer of a seat between two states makes their
v/s differ by a smaller factor than it did before, then something is wrong
with the initial allocation.
Mike Ossipoff
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You wrote:
I understand that LR/Hamilton may lead to the Alabama paradox and
people may dislike LR/Hamilton because of this. But I think LR/
Hamilton is quite proportional and unbiased.
I reply:
Hamilton is unbiased, as is Webster. But though Hamilton doesn't
systematically deviate from
demonstration seems valid,
if not well-worded.
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current seats + .5 numbers, then we get a sequence
of odd numbers. That's where the well-known SL odd numbers formula comes
from.
It's often mistakenly said that SL favors small parties. Not so. SL is the
unbiased monotonic allocation method.
I'll continue this in a subsequent posting.
Mike
and optimally proportional, offers an opening into the
subject of electoral reform, which can then lead to more significant
reforms, starting with a better single-winner method.
Mike Ossipoff
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give the right number of seats, goes to another procedrue, abandoning the
use of a quota. SL merely picks a quote that does exactly what the Hare
quota was suspposed to do.
to be continued...
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, with no voting system comment in the posting.
That was what I wanted to say.
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? Of course you do that because you already lack power, with a
favorite who isn't very winnable.
This retirement wasn't very neat, since I had a few more things I wanted to
say. But this covers it.
Mike Ossipoff
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remote forest is affected by public policy, and
therefore by voting systems.
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they are forced to vote their
incompetence full-strength, all or nothing.
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RLPO2PA has a brief definition, but, for the public, it won't be perceived
as a simple definition. They won't like recursion.
Does RLPO2PA have good properties?
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in a rank method.
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you prefer?
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own elaborate strategy considerations, and to
find out if ranking can improve on Approval and RV, MDDA's strategy must be
discussed.
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:
2. Are LNH and the Favorite Betrayal Criterion (FBC) mutually
incompatible?
I reply:
Doesn't MMPO meet both?
You continued:
3. Are LNH, SFC and FBC mutually incompatible?
I reply:
Doesn't MMPO meet all of those?
But regrettably, MMPO has a big problem, as Kevin pointed out.
Mike Ossipoff
, that voter shouldn't
entirely blame my definition. Surely she would have to admit that she
contributed at least partly to the definition-mismatch by having
intransitive preferences.
Mike Ossipoff
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it's possible to
get SFC in combination with FBC.
Compare the stark simpliclity of MDDA to the long definition of Schulze's
method.
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asking for additional information
in the form of an Approval cutoff.
Both MDDA versions meet FBC, SFC, and SDSC. Deluxe MDDA's deluxeness isn't
needed, and for a first proposal, I suggest ordinary MDDA, defined in my
previous posting.
Mike Ossipoff
, the requirement to not count a ballot that assigns more than one
rank number to one candidate is included for simplicity.
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, by making MDDA strategy as simple as that of
Approval in an acceptable/unacceptable situation, would be valuable, I don't
propose power truncation for a first MDDA proposal. For a first proposal, I
propose MDDA, in the plain and briefly-defined form for which I have sent
the statue language.
Mike
, but criteria are only used during the discussion of an example.
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, an SFC failure example can or cannot be written are just as valid,
regardless of what nonsense word you substitute for prefer.
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I've unsuccessfully searched the web for that mailing list, and a way to
write to it or join it (in order to write to it). How can that be
accomplished?
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will win means that if there's a unique winner it will
be either the CW or someone you like better. But in any case, it certainly
isn't less of a guarantee.
Obviously the same comparison can be made between the Smith Criterion and
GSFC.
Mike Ossipoff
.
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Ken:
You say:
Sorry Mike, I should have said I don't see the purpose of the
criterion, rather than the value of..
I reply:
That's perfectly ok. Don't apologize for that. It's perfectly valid for you
not see the value of a criterion, just as it's valid for you not to see the
purpose
be
called Smith's Criterion for majorities.
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a preference, but
this wording is more realistic and useful.
Rob, would you put this at the electowicki?
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MDDA has been enacted, power truncation could be proposed
as a subsequent proposal. Maybe later, deluxe MDDA. So MDDA can start out
starkly simple, and be improved incrementally later.
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.
The advantages that I mentioned for O/D over MDDA are Approval's simple
acceptable/unacceptable strategy, without power truncation; and it can have
full ranking expressivity without the separate Approval cutoff by which
Deluxe MDDA achieves that.
Mike Ossipoff
falsify a preference. It's only necessary that
people don't falsify preferences in sufficient numbers to change the
election result.
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, RV seems a much easier and more winnable proposal, due to its
simplicly, public familiarity, and public populariy.
And Weak Majority Criterion compliance and WDSC compliance do much to make
up for RV not meeting MC.
Mike Ossipoff
in order to let more
choice-power be had by people to whom the choice is more important?
Shouldn't they be free to do as they wish? They could strategize, to
maximize their applied strength, if they wished to.
Mike Ossipoff
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need
that assurance, and who, therefore, can benefit from the assurance that SFC
compliance gives.
If it were up to me, public elections would use MDDA. Realistically, I
propose RV, with more rating-levels than Approval.
Mike Ossipoff
one wants to equal-top-rank the acceptables
and power-truncate the unacceptables.
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Election
will vote, and that was to be expected, but the turnout has
been good, most of the active list participants.
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conditions I spoke of earlier.
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ERBucklin(whole):
Voters rank as many candidates as they want to in order of preference. Equal
ranking and truncation are permitted.
There are a series of vote-giving rounds. In each round, every ranking gives
one whole vote (each) to one or more candidates as described in the next
the
candidates?
I reply:
Yes, that's MDDA. In its standard definition, in MDDA a ballot gives an
Approval vote to (only) all the candidates that it ranks.
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. And it surely is better than SR.
By the way I prefer Approval to SR too.
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as the CWY majority
vote sincerely, and no one falsifies, Y must lose. They might not put their
Approval cutoff between CW and Y. Say they approve both or neither, but the
YCW minority all approve Y, but not the CW? DMC probably doesn't meet SFC.
Mike Ossipoff
ask for any conditions, and is
made individually to every voter.
MDDA meets SFC and FBC.
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that ERBucklin(whole) is better than SR for public elections.
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Election
,
their FBC compliance isn't so necessary, and BeatpathWinner's GSFC is a
bonus. And, to a lesser extent, its Condorcet Criterion and Smith Criterion.
So it seems to me that BeatpathWinner CSSD win the comparison for such
use.
Mike Ossipoff
that is contradicted by
the order of the Approval scores. Anyone then unbeaten wins.
[end of definition]
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beat each of the others in
separate two-candidate races. But that standard isn't everything, and
Approval RV would bring tremendous benefit.
For instance, Approval or RV would be much better than any Condorcet
Criterion method other than wv Condorcet.
Mike Ossipoff
to your favorite,
and voting someone overe your favorite.
[Rob continues]:
We'll have to agree to disagree, because [absolute avoidance of favorite
betrayal] is not my goal.
[Mike replies:]
Ok, but when people are afraid to show full support for their favorite,
Democracy becomes a joke.
You
relatively sincere voting.
Electing a CW will often depend on that.
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, and be
willing to accept the expense and effort of a 2nd balloting. So RV seems
like the easiest to ask for, of all the good public voting systems.
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maximize the
probability of the winner being an acceptable candidate. And that could be
so even if there is no information available about whether or not that
special FBC-failure situation exists.
You continued:
This runs
contrary to what Mike suggest, which is that voters will reverse order
unless
an acceptable/unacceptable situation and wants to vote
optimally will favorite-bury if it would maximize the probability that the
winner will be an acceptable candidate.
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exclusively, and let its winner be the organization's choice.
It depends on how you want to balance 1)The properties desired for your own
application vs 2)Setting precedent for a good and winnable publc method.
Mike Ossipoff
for a BeatpathWinner FBC failure example, but I hope
others will too, because it isn't so easy to find one.
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-evils problem that requires FBC compliance, will then
be the best public method.
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assume that every truncation is a power truncation.
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Election-methods
[beginning of ballot]
The problem with our Plurality voting system is that many voters feel
compelled to vote for a lesser-evil, abandoning their favorite. The voting
systems below were chosen because, with them, no one ever has any incentive
or reason to vote someone over their favorite.
any other criterion
compliances should be traded.
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/unacceptable situation,
and power truncation is available and everyone votes optimally.
to be continued.
There isn't time to check this for errors, but I'll hope for the best.
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it for
MDDA over MMPO? Too bad, because there were things I liked about MMPO. But
if someone showed that example during the enactment campaign, we might as
well forget about MMPO being enacted.
Mike Ossipoff
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of simplicity for a rank method.
But the example that you posted seems to finish MMPO as a public proposal.
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that Kevin posted. Well, that's good
in a way, because it simplifies the choice of a rank method for public
proposals.
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I suggest this ballot, or one like it, for public polling on voting systems:
[beginning of ballot]
The problem with our Plurality voting system is that many voters feel
compelled to vote for a lesser-evil, abandoning their favorite. The voting
systems below were chosen because, with them, no
Sorry, my MDDA ICC failure-example wasn't well-written. Maybe I can write
an MDDA ICC bad-example, but if I post one, it will be one that I've checked
out more carefully than that other one that I posted.
Mike Ossipoff
I'd said:
Saddam probably intimidated voters.
Russ says:
Probably?!!! Yes, Mike, I suppose it is possible that Saddam got 99.96%
of the vote because he was sincerely loved!
I reply:
No, he might have merely reported a fraudulent count result, as did
Ferdinand Marcos and the Bush people
complicated, because that would spoil it as a
public proposal. The beauty of Approval, CR, MMPO and MDDA is their
simplicity, in addition to their FBC compliance.
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LNH and SDSC
would then be
a factor in the choice between MMPO MDDA.
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administration could do another terrorist attack, as they did 9-11,
if they deem it necessary.
Mr. Lomax says:
Now, certain obvious injustices existing in the Muslim world have been
mentioned here [by Mike, whom I won't name, because I don't reply to him],
as if these injustices were somehow
democracy would be better accepted when
people have seen how effectively they can implement what they want, with
better voting systems.
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