Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Possibly relevant: See Reynolds, W. N., Wimberly, F. C., Simulation Validation Using Causal Inference Theory with Morphological Constraints. Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference, Arizona Grand Resort, December, 2011. On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 9:33 AM uǝlƃ

[FRIAM] Apple-Google and tracking virus

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/on-the-trail-of-covid-19-contact-tracing-the-virus/ Tom Johnson - t...@jtjohnson.com Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA 505.577.6482(c)505.473.9646(h) *NM Foundat

Re: [FRIAM] FB self-selected antibody covid testing of 3000+ in Santa Clara

You're right. My apologies. Bit.ly is driving me crazy lately. TJ Tom Johnson - t...@jtjohnson.com Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA 505.577.6482(c)505.473.9646(h) *NM Foundation for Open G

Re: [FRIAM] FB self-selected antibody covid testing of 3000+ in Santa Clara

I was tempted to offer them 0.50. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 4:08 PM Gary Schiltz wrote: > Hey Tom, that link points to a domain that is for sale. > > On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 5:04 PM Tom Johnson wrote: > >> Rela

Re: [FRIAM] FB self-selected antibody covid testing of 3000+ in Santa Clara

Hey Tom, that link points to a domain that is for sale. On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 5:04 PM Tom Johnson wrote: > Related: > BS NEWS April 19, 2020, 9:07 AM > "On the trail of COVID-19: Contact tracing the virus > bit.ly/mSad > TJ > > > > Tom Johnson - t..

Re: [FRIAM] FB self-selected antibody covid testing of 3000+ in Santa Clara

Related: BS NEWS April 19, 2020, 9:07 AM "On the trail of COVID-19: Contact tracing the virus bit.ly/mSad TJ Tom Johnson - t...@jtjohnson.com Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA 505.577.6482(c)

[FRIAM] FB self-selected antibody covid testing of 3000+ in Santa Clara

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.htmlPreprint below.Has this been discussed already?Seems like a fairly key new piece of information in the covid19 version of the Drake Equation (with a time component).This seems to be a decent guess at the fraction truly

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Thanks for the elaboration, my "worst fears" trumped my "greatest hopes" when I read the Wikipedia article... The first rule of Fight Club is "you do not talk about Fight Club" > Steve, > > I mentioned the Bellamy Clubs then and now, solely as an example of > spontaneous generation of hundreds of

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

For comparison, there are 288 deep sequences for SARS-Cov2 at GenBank, and about 2.4 million confirmed cases world-wide. A few thousand more sequences at GISAID. Not hundreds of thousands of samples that have been deep sequenced. There could actually be many independent transmission cases,

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

> Not directly relevant, but another good sci-fi about genetics — Daniel > Suarez' Change Agent. > > davew Thanks... I read that earlier this year in response to your general reference to Suarez (starting with Delta-V?) and my body and soul *still* ache from the memories! and Marcus... yes, GAT

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

"I think it would be wise to watch the evolution of the virus over time within people and across people"Scientists do this already, and they found out for instance that most NY cases came from Europe, not from China directly. Carl Zimmer reported about it in the NY Times. This is the article Don

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Roger directs us to the story about Biohub: < It was also different, in an important way. The commercial labs are set up to take in the samples and spit out a simple answer: positive or negative. They aren’t set up, as the Biohub is, to sequence the genome of every positive specimen and look fo

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 11:41 AM wrote: > > > Of COURSE it would be you who would recognize “Red, Right, Returning”. > > > > I am surprised that some conservative magazine hasn’t adopted it as its > motto. > Might be a better motto for the centrists to keep Left of the Red markers. ie keep navig

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

UCSF has something like this, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-17/chan-zuckerberg-biohub-is-ready-for-coronavirus-tests-to-come -- rec -- On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 1:40 PM Marcus Daniels wrote: > Dave writes: > > < Marcus said, "Imagine if everyone had full genome sequencing an

Re: [FRIAM] Tripping on the Rye: She's a Witch! How do you know? . (Re: basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions)

Stephen writes: < Though if you listen closely, it was already offered right before "duck" :-) > Ah ha! Only my subconscious picked it up, I guess. :-) Marcus From: Friam on behalf of Stephen Guerin Sent: Sunday, April 19, 2020 12:37 PM To: The Friday Mornin

Re: [FRIAM] Tripping on the Rye: She's a Witch! How do you know? . (Re: basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions)

Marcus, Yes, Lead is a good guess. Though if you listen closely, it was already offered right before "duck" :-) https://youtu.be/zrzMhU_4m-g?t=157 On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 12:32 PM Marcus Daniels wrote: > How about lead? > > > https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lead-in-americas-water-systems-is-a-n

Re: [FRIAM] Tripping on the Rye: She's a Witch! How do you know? . (Re: basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions)

How about lead? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lead-in-americas-water-systems-is-a-national-problem/ https://www.nrdc.org/resources/whats-your-water-flint-and-beyond https://www.vox.com/2016/1/21/10811004/lead-poisoning-cities-us Marcus From: Friam on behalf of St

Re: [FRIAM] Tripping on the Rye: She's a Witch! How do you know? . (Re: basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions)

SG - > I was completely ignorant of the history/impacts of ergot >  before this thread. Fascinating! so now you have added (upped the game of) "ergot" to your argot! Language of thieves?!     https://grammarist.com/usage/argot-vs-ergot/ It might be notable

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Steve, I mentioned the Bellamy Clubs then and now, solely as an example of spontaneous generation of hundreds of local groups to talk about the future. I mentioned before I taught a class with Bellamy's grandson who was writing a biography and i was told many a story about the clubs and their e

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Roger! Great to hear from you! Are you At Sea!? Of COURSE it would be you who would recognize “Red, Right, Returning”. I am surprised that some conservative magazine hasn’t adopted it as its motto. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psych

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Dave writes: < Marcus said, "Imagine if everyone had full genome sequencing and every viral sample was deep sequenced." Iceland has something close to this already. > https://www.decode.com/publications/ Marcus .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... . ..

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow Sent: Sunday, Apr

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Not directly relevant, but another good sci-fi about genetics — Daniel Suarez' Change Agent. davew On Sun, Apr 19, 2020, at 10:41 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: > Marcus - > > > I believe that Andrew Niccol DID imagine something like that: > > I wish I had a pithy preamble for this dystopian

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Marcus said, "Imagine if everyone had full genome sequencing and every viral sample was deep sequenced." Iceland has something close to this already. davew On Sun, Apr 19, 2020, at 10:34 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Steve writes: > > < The whole world is responding to what is *roughly* the same

[FRIAM] Tripping on the Rye: She's a Witch! How do you know? . (Re: basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions)

I was completely ignorant of the history/impacts of ergot before this thread. Fascinating! In this context, we can think about Dave's different ways of knowing when we show cause and evidence that someone is a witch. 1. Science: https://www.youtube.com/wat

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

< I wish I had a pithy preamble for this dystopian BioPunk reference, but perhaps it speaks for itself? > Gattaca only considered the consequences of the read genome, not the write genome, or of all the interventions that could be discovered as a result of statistical inference. Hypotheticall

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Marcus - I believe that Andrew Niccol DID imagine something like that: I wish I had a pithy preamble for this dystopian BioPunk reference, but perhaps it speaks for itself? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca - Steve > Steve writes: > > < The whole world is responding to what is *ro

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

You want to do an agent-based simulation of, say, consumer behavior where the relevant properties of the agents have the joint distribution of a sample. You want it to be in a context that or for a period of time not realizable with actual subjects... On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 9:30 AM Marcus Daniel

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Nick - > > The thunder lightening thing is both apt and strange, because of > course nothing is possible between lightning and thunder EXCEPT that > it is going to thunder.  CF living in SFO or Seattle.  You've seen the > lightening, folks!  "One banana, two bananas.three bananas > ….."  Y

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Steve writes: < The whole world is responding to what is *roughly* the same virus with *roughly* what is the same human phenotype/metabolism in a myriad of *roughly* the same modes of human organization. > There are hundreds of common HLA alleles across humans. In a diverse country like the

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

I've watched people leave red to port on their returns, and some even get away with it. -- rec -- On Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 12:09 PM Nicholas Thompson wrote: > Hi, Dave n all, > > "Outlook" has collapsed leaving me in gmail, which I don't understand.. > So forgive me if... etc. > > The thunder ligh

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

> One way to address the N/A issue is to repeatedly perturb the real-world > system so as to elicit those correlations. When that is practical.. We are, in a time of real-world system perturbation, right now.  The whole world is responding to what is *roughly* the same virus with *roughly* wha

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Hi, Dave n all, "Outlook" has collapsed leaving me in gmail, which I don't understand.. So forgive me if... etc. The thunder lightening thing is both apt and strange, because of course nothing is possible between lightning and thunder EXCEPT that it is going to thunder. CF living in SFO or Seat

[FRIAM] TL;DR

Glen - I very much appreciate your balance in this regard.  I did not (and likely Marcus did not either) interpret your frustration with parsing my (overly) layered response to your Necker-Cube post as judgement of TL;DR unless the "L" was for "Layered" not "Long".   I also appreciate your *presc

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

One way to address the N/A issue is to repeatedly perturb the real-world system so as to elicit those correlations. When that is practical.. > On Apr 19, 2020, at 8:33 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > > Well, the argument I often end up making is that you can do a kind of face > validation with the fake

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Well, the argument I often end up making is that you can do a kind of face validation with the fake data. Show it to someone who's used to dealing with that sort of data and if the fake data looks a lot like the data they normally deal with, then maybe more data-taking isn't necessary. If it loo

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Dave - I do remember your reference to the Bellamyists and probably wrote a long-winded (well-over 300) commentary which I then deleted.   What I remember of that (my aborted response) was somewhat reactionary to Utopianism and Nationalism.  In the spirit of productive optimism, I realize(d) my r

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

I have a hard time with this as a way to extend data. If it is high-dimensional it will be under-sampled. Seems better to me to measure or simulate more so that the joint distribution can be realistic. And if you can do that there is no reason to infer the joint distribution because you *ha

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

I won't read whatever argument Scott Adams might have made about long narratives, mostly because I doubt he has anything useful to say. But also because I *do* prioritize my time. It's not that my time is valuable. It's that if I didn't prioritize (and triage against people like Adams), I'd neve

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Going back and forth: If you infer the causal graph from observational data you can use that graph to simulate data with the same joint distribution as the original data. Frank On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 9:11 AM uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > The *ensemble* point is the primary reason I regret not being able t

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

The *ensemble* point is the primary reason I regret not being able to parse your response to my Necker cube summarization of EricS' TLDR. It goes back to the original question of how/whether distributional conceptions better catch the unknown unknowns left dangling in the ambience. Pearl's attem

[FRIAM] Phaedrus and Theimania

FriAM- As long as I am being arbitrarily prolific (manic?) I feel compelled to reference the *other* book I'm more than halfway through.  It is likely to be familiar to many here.  "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" - Robert Pirsig.  I read this when I was young and it was fresh and hype

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Steve, This *_should_* be a time between lightning and thunder, liminal, a time "when all things are possible." I would love to be optimistic, even guardedly, Prerequisite, perhaps, is for everyone to accept Hywel's dictum, "Ah, but it is more complicated than that" coupled with a heady dose

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

addendum: I was interrupted mid-post Just as a new strain of ergot might pose a severe challenge to hybridized wheat, a new "strain" of problem might pose a severe challenge to a hybridized mode of thinking. I would posit that challenges like Covid-19, global warming, and even The Donald are

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Frank - > Steve, > > I'm surprised you didn't find any posts by me in your search for > "causality" . Actually I did find you, your voice was in that thread as well, and in others.  >   Usually, when someone says "correlation is not causation" it > triggers me.  In the early 90s/late 80s there we

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Dave, et al - These are fecund times.   The time between the lightning and the thunder - "when all things are possible".  Or maybe, if you have a more apocalyptic bent, the beginning of the "end of times".   William Gibson's "Jackpot" perhaps (to be more ambiguous).  I think Churchill tried on (i

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Steve, I'm surprised you didn't find any posts by me in your search for "causality" . Usually, when someone says "correlation is not causation" it triggers me. In the early 90s/late 80s there were two teams working on inference of causal graphs from observational data: Pearl et al at UCLA and G

[FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Glen - I'm in the midst (early part) of Judea Pearl's "Book of Why".   I had a vague memory of his earlier book: "Causality" having been referenced if not discussed on this list.   Searching the archives, I discovered what I considered to be quite a Pearl (NPI) circa 2013.  In this long chain, yo

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Nick, There is truth in what you say, but only a bit. I have certainly spoken as if "Science was a bunch of nasty people with vested interests acting in an exclusionary manner." Hyperbole. A better metaphor / analogy would be the way we have hybridized our food supply; e.g. 90 percent of all