On 1/22/20 1:27 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> */[NST===>] Of course, I value the relation between the logical structure of
> models and their products, irrespective of what use they might be put to.
> Isn’t that mathematics? /*
I'm not that interested in defining math. But it is
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
On 1/22/20 12:23 PM, <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com
wrote:
> [*/NST===>] Not Epstein himself, but another <
> <https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse=00643349271946244
On 1/22/20 12:23 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> [*/NST===>] Not Epstein himself, but another
>
t: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 11:06 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
Nick,
About your "if the Enlightenment has worked, it should not need defense, right?"
If people do not recognize that it has worked, is it wrong to
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
Did Epstein ever respond to your (& Derr's) criticism?
[NST===>] Not Epstein himself, but another
<https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse=006433492719462442300:_7mu_xxuwwu=http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/1
om
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 22, 2020 11:06 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIA
nthompson/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 11:06 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
Nick,
About your "if the Enlightenment has
Did Epstein ever respond to your (& Derr's) criticism?
"Opaque" isn't a perfect substitute for "obtuse", but it's OK. By "obtuse", I
really mean "low interpretability", where interpretability is the extent to
which one can *read* and *understand* the structure of a model. It's mostly
used in
University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 22, 2020 8:56 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@r
com
<https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 9:33 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
Too much (IMO) of our contemporary (public and p
ay Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
So much trouble?
I'm an enthusiastic supporter of Steven Pinker's, I quote from
https://www.amazon.com/Enlightenment-Now-Science-Humanism-Progress/dp/0525427570
:
"If you think the world is coming to an e
From: Friam On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 8:33 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
This is the hubris that has got us into so much trouble!
On Wed, Jan 22, 2020 at 1:00 AM Pieter Steenekamp
<https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Wednesday, January 22, 2020 8:30 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
The distributio
influence *can*
> work. At one point the British Empire ruled over a
> quarter of the world. Now it isn't even possible to get
> people to dispose of their plastic bottles properly. I
> think the Apollonians bett
die by the millions, helpless and afraid. At
>>> least the Dionysian gets the luxury of recognizing, "Yep, this is it." It
>>> just depends on what kind of influence *can* work. At one point the
>>> British Empire ruled over a quarter of the world. No
My intuition matches yours. But I was also including animals like social
insects, bees, termites, etc. And I think it would be reasonable to scale this
all the way down to prokaryotes. The point being that the extent to which an
organism can *model* the world is mostly limited and extremely
" It
>> just depends on what kind of influence *can* work. At one point the
>> British Empire ruled over a quarter of the world. Now it isn't even
>> possible to get people to dispose of their plastic bottles properly. I
>> think the Apollonians better take charge ASAP, if tha
The distribution of a small number of big ones and very large number small
ones (like in a scale free network with a power law distribution) is an
emerging property of a complex system where agents interact with each
other. I don’t think human intellect distribution falls in this category.
My
The problem with Marcus' question is its 2 types of closure. 1) communication,
reason, and action are separable. But the question convolves them. And 2) any
instance of communication, reason, or action won't be complete. (I'm reminded
of Wolpert's paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/0708.1362)
And
behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ <
> geprope...@gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Tuesday, January 21, 2020 2:49 PM
> *To:* FriAM
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
>
> Nah. I reject the dichotomy. I consider myself both D and an A, but in
> different domains. And I think it might be reas
, January 21, 2020 2:49 PM
To: FriAM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
Nah. I reject the dichotomy. I consider myself both D and an A, but in
different domains. And I think it might be reasonable to time slice between A &
D. My sister's ex used to say "We play hard and
Nah. I reject the dichotomy. I consider myself both D and an A, but in
different domains. And I think it might be reasonable to time slice between A &
D. My sister's ex used to say "We play hard and we work hard" ... indicating
that they were both D & A, maybe even simultaneously, depending on
To: FriAM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
Ha! Yes, sorry. Anthropogenic Global Warming.
On 1/21/20 11:53 AM, <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com
wrote:
> Could we develop a FRIAM convention? In any first use of an acronym in any
> individual
Ha! Yes, sorry. Anthropogenic Global Warming.
On 1/21/20 11:53 AM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> Could we develop a FRIAM convention? In any first use of an acronym in any
> individual email, the user spell it out.
>
> AGW? I know I should know, but 'should-knowing' something is a long
University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
-Original Message-
From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Tuesday, January 21, 2020 11:31 AM
To: FriAM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
While your argument *seems* reasonable, I've often found that soft influence
years ago.
>>>
>>> And the most powerful country of the world has a president who ignores
>>> all of it and considers himself a very stable genius. Sean Hannity gets 36
>>> Million Dollar (!) a year from Fox News to praise him. Isn't it depressing?
>>>
>>&
we burn so much fossil fuels that there will
>>> be regions where we have a lack of Oxygen. Earth was like this many million
>>> years ago.
>>>
>>> And the most powerful country of the world has a president who ignores
>>> all of it and considers himself a ver
d the most powerful country of the world has a president who ignores all
>>> of it and considers himself a very stable genius. Sean Hannity gets 36
>>> Million Dollar (!) a year from Fox News to praise him. Isn't it depressing?
>>>
>>> -Jochen
>>>
>>&
ox News to praise him. Isn't it depressing?
>>
>> -Jochen
>>
>>
>>
>> Original message
>> From: Pieter Steenekamp
>> Date: 1/20/20 22:59 (GMT+01:00)
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>>
>
While your argument *seems* reasonable, I've often found that soft influence
fails to meet any well-specified objectives [†]. So by pursuing your larger
(AGW + other global risks) system of issues, you run into a problem definition
issue. Good engineering is said to be 1/2 good problem
I plead guilty as charged. My reasoning is fragile because the way I see it
there are significant uncertainties. My (granted fragile) point is that
there are empirical data that casts serious doubt on the accuracy of the
climate models. It seems to me that in the real world, as opposed to in the
You're laying out a fragile chain of reasoning here: 1) Estimates: [1.5,4.5],
2) Data: [1.5, 1.5+ε], 3) No serious harm.
We know that people aren't swayed by data. Even when contradictory data is
staring someone in the face, they tend to reinforce their prior held belief.
So, the question I
--- Original message
> From: Pieter Steenekamp
> Date: 1/20/20 22:59 (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
>
> Eric asked for someone with a comprehensive knowledge of climate science
>
On Mon, Jan 20, 2020 at 09:18:25PM -0700, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> Should I sell my BHP Billiton shares? I don't have that much.
I don't know - are they involved in the fossil fuel industry?
The big litmus test right now is Adani, an Indian coal mining company
planning to open a huge coal mine
Should I sell my BHP Billiton shares? I don't have that much.
---
Frank Wimberly
My memoir:
https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly
My scientific publications:
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
Phone (505) 670-9918
On Mon, Jan 20, 2020,
On Tue, Jan 21, 2020 at 12:22:42AM +0100, Jochen Fromm wrote:
>
> I could even imagine that we burn so much fossil fuels that there will be
> regions where we have a lack of Oxygen. Earth was like this many million years
> ago.
>
That might take a few centuries. There's several hundred years
from Fox News to praise him. Isn't it depressing?
-Jochen
Original message From: Pieter Steenekamp
Date: 1/20/20 22:59 (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday
Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re:
[FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump Eric asked for someone with a comprehensive knowledge
Eric asked for someone with a comprehensive knowledge of climate science
and I do not put my name in the hat. But I do have some comprehension of
the basic science and the big picture.
But like all humans I have biases and very far from having a comprehensive
knowledge of the literature nor the
Sorry…
My own typos are bad enough, but usually comprehensible. But when the damned
computer helpfully comes in and substitutes the word it thinks I must have
meant, the result is a true obscurity:
> One also wants to take into account arctic se ice, which if I really is on a
> faster
Would be interesting to know what the buffers are, that weren’t in that run of
models.
Temperatures are lower than forecast, but Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet
melting rates are higher. They seem like small land areas, and the ice volume
small, but specific heat of melting is large per
Trump's channel Fox News is owned by the Australian Murdoch family. Can two
families ruin the entire planet? Trump in America and Murdoch in Australia are
creating tremendous damage. If Climate Change leads to an uninhabitable world,
as David Wallace-Wells describes in his book, these two
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