Re: [FRIAM] Graal VM

Glen writes: < Well, it's not really the curation of triggers that you raise. You're raising the curation of possible actions/bins the trigger disambiguates. > Sure. And if the action gets you killed, the tail recursion is avoided! ( run(Env) :- trigger(Env), action(Env,NewEnv), run(newEnv)

Re: [FRIAM] Graal VM

Steve writes: < I am also interested in what an everyday interpretation of Quantum Superposition might be when applied to collective knowledge/consciousness/decision-making. My recurrent harping on ranked-choice voting is a very thin appeal in that direction... a redu

Re: [FRIAM] A longer response to Dave's question

A Worldwide Independent Network/Gallup International Association poll in 2017 [1] found that 39% of Americans are irreligious, and another study [2] estimates 26% are actually atheists. Yes, the US does have long way to go to catch up with Sweden (73%) or the UK (69%) or Israel (58%).The t

Re: [FRIAM] A longer response to Dave's question

Sarbajit wrote: < As a non-American, I ask - what happened to the USA's "One nation under God ?" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pledge_of_Allegiance > I don’t have a sense of how many schools still do this, in practice. Yes, it’s wacky!My wife used to get in trouble in grade school for re

Re: [FRIAM] A longer response to Dave's question

Our goon’s people will die-off soon enough. Modi’s seem to be younger? On Feb 21, 2020, at 9:09 PM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:  India. Being afraid is a good thing. It heightens our senses, causes us to be better prepared to react against threats (dictators) when they happen. As of now our 2 mutual

Re: [FRIAM] Graal VM

Glen writes: < By asking for more examples, it seems the original one (Ellison's Trump support) isn't meaningful for you? Another example might be learning that your organization accepted money from a convicted sex offender like Epstein. These are triggers for some people. They'd trigger me, to

Re: [FRIAM] A longer response to Dave's question

< Pps: Do I have more or less evidence that Christ Existed than I do that Marcus exists. I have never met either of them, but of both, I can say, “I have read a lot of his writings and I know a lot of people who believe in him and speak highly of him. “ What would constitute indoubitable proof

Re: [FRIAM] A longer response to Dave's question

< Did we actually meet meat? I don’t remember when. Rumor has it that you are in the BayArea now. > Back in the SF Complex days, I looked a little like Jesus. Eric once likened me to Shaggy from Scooby Doo. I do miss annoying LANL managers with this kind of presentation. As if their ex

Re: [FRIAM] A longer response to Dave's question

Frank writes: Definitions. Notation. Argh, who cares. Where’s that neuralyzer, let me get rid of them. (That should at least be evidence of continuity!) Marcus FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe

Re: [FRIAM] Graal VM

Glen writes: Reflection in "normals" language will be laden by taboos. (Like you said one might ask themselves what it would take kill someone.) Stepping back to a use a specialized lan

Re: [FRIAM] Graal VM

in, but only a period of letting the reptile brain operate in the wild. Marcus On 2/22/20, 1:41 PM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: On 2/22/20 7:45 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Glen writes: > > < By asking for more examples, it seems the original

Re: [FRIAM] Graal VM

Steve writes: < In my naive version of pop psych, I am used to "triggers" and "reactions" being somewhat convolved. The firearm metaphor is quite apt here... with a "hair trigger" and a gun whose "safety is off" or is "cocked" (double-action revolver/rifle). > Hah, Glen "doesn't re

Re: [FRIAM] Graal VM

iPhone > On Feb 23, 2020, at 5:37 AM, glen wrote: > >  > >> On February 22, 2020 4:31:21 PM PST, Marcus Daniels >> wrote: >> Hah, Glen "doesn't really believe in desensitization", but he sometimes >> opts for terms that are highly loaded ter

Re: [FRIAM] A longer response to Dave's question

Nick writes: < What, a priori, constitutes an "edge". How do we know where "edges" are? > Edge in this context could mean entities that have low betweenness. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betweenness_centrality From: Friam on behalf of thompnicks...@gmail.com

Re: [FRIAM] A longer response to Dave's question

Steve writes: < I personally use computer-mediated perception (including simulation models and visual-auditory-haptic synthetic sensoria) to try to achieve this expanded awareness/insight into real-world phenomena, but with a tacit goal of being able to "find my way back" and "lead someone else

Re: [FRIAM] A longer response to Dave's question

l than "regular" states. 8. There are many examples that suggest certain insights-that-turn-out-to-hold-up-pretty-well, which were first experienced when under an altered state, were unlikely to have been experienced without that altered state. Is that the type of stuff we were are poki

Re: [FRIAM] oxytocin, again

No, life is quiet suffering. :-) On 3/4/20, 11:13 AM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: Such a troll question. Should I put every word in scare quotes? 8^) If you'll notice the title of the 2nd paper, you'll see they use 'hidden', not hidden. Sheesh. More importantly, the whole

Re: [FRIAM] Devs

Ha, love the Faraday cage and the cold take on absolution. Several nice touches in the first episode! From: Friam on behalf of Steven A Smith Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Thursday, March 5, 2020 at 8:24 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffe

Re: [FRIAM] Acid epistemology - Eric Help!!!!

Glen writes: < So, I'm along about mile 4 in my 6 mile run, looking up at the moon, plodding along, my body drifts away, and [unsayable somatic, mental, and emotional state obtains] > I don't think the experience can be conveyed to someone that doesn't exercise to a sufficient intensity, it c

Re: [FRIAM] Acid epistemology - Eric Help!!!!

Glen writes: < I disagree, but maybe only because I'm trying to generalize into categories of experience. For example, you can put your body into a ketogenic state (assuming it's not all pseudoscience) by exercising long enough, burning all the available glucose and begin burning ketones. You

Re: [FRIAM] Acid epistemology - Eric Help!!!!

Glen writes: < Second, depleting glycogen from the muscle is different from fully depleting the liver, which is why HIIT works. I didn't really do HIIT very often. But I did always start and finish with sprints, with a long steady run in between. > A different experience is a hard bonk followed

Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: [netlogo-users] Release of NetTango

Ok, I’ll bite. Why is writing a computer program “mere details” and writing for human readers important? Facility with language is an important competence, period. Lacking it in technical realms is a massive deficit. Marcus From: Friam on behalf of Stephen Guerin Reply-To: "stephen.gue..

Re: [FRIAM] Pragmaticism and puritanism

Temporary refrigeration for some FRIAM members? Just until it all blows over? On 3/11/20, 9:30 AM, "Friam on behalf of thompnicks...@gmail.com" wrote: Hi Dave, Well, at the very least, the kind of information that would convince me to take a somewhat dodgy drug to fend off co

Re: [FRIAM] Pragmaticism and puritanism

rom: Friam On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels Sent: Wednesday, March 11, 2020 11:01 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Pragmaticism and puritanism Temporary refrigeration for some FRIAM members? Just until it all blows over? On

Re: [FRIAM] Pragmaticism and puritanism

earthquake preparedness meeting last night and failed miserably. Thanks for the Tang cite. On 3/11/20 11:06 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > I would not count on just one dangerous serotype of SARS-CoV-2.The L type that is currently more dangerous is not the ancestral form, which su

Re: [FRIAM] Pragmaticism and puritanism

3/11/20, 11:58 AM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: https://www.google.com/search?q=personal+genome+machine&client=firefox-b-1-d&source=lnms&tbm=shop&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiJxu6tjJPoAhUWvJ4KHbYoA8oQ_AUoA3oECA0QBQ&biw=1608&bih=861 On

Re: [FRIAM] Nothing to do with over thinking Terms: People have gone off the deep end hoarding everything in brick and mortar stores

Yeah, just go ahead and panic. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_iran-virus-burials-1035am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans From: Friam on behalf of Gillian Densmore Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group

Re: [FRIAM] to the local congregation

Let the nerdy introverts among us celebrate that social distancing is now a good thing! :-) From: Friam on behalf of "thompnicks...@gmail.com" Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 6:20 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Cof

Re: [FRIAM] science privilege — fork from acid epistemology

Dave writes: < A closely related, I think, topic is the push by computer science to have "computational thinking" embedded in elementary and secondary education as "essential." Computational thinking is exactly the wrong kind of thinking as most of the critical things we need to think about are

Re: [FRIAM] science privilege — fork from acid epistemology

Dave writes: < My claim, as such, is more analogous to the argument that audiophiles advance with regard digital sound. When you digitize you create a square wave within the confines of the analog wave. Unless your sampling rate is infinite, there will always be some information loss — the gaps

Re: [FRIAM] science privilege — fork from acid epistemology

I’ve always interpreted the usage of those terms as passing admiration: “That’s good but don’t get so self-indulgent thinking about why.” From: Friam on behalf of Frank Wimberly Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 8:34 AM To: The Frid

Re: [FRIAM] science privilege — fork from acid epistemology

Dave writes: “Got into Software world via the patterns community” The difference between metaprogramming and patterns, is that metaprogramming is put to work, and patterns is talk. Marcus From: Friam on behalf of Prof David West Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group

Re: [FRIAM] Meeting of "Physical Friam"

There is a 40 minute time limit on the free version of Zoom for three or more participants. Microsoft teams is another one or GotoMeeting. From: Friam on behalf of Frank Wimberly Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 3:52 PM To: The

Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

I thought this was kind of interesting. https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus If they were doing something like this, might be able to collect both the viral and human data from one sample: https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-

Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

n-polling-locations.html> the health and safety of election workers who handle absentee ballots. All absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day must be counted even if they are ultimately received days later due to postal service delays. On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Marcus Daniels m

Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

n also the scientists I don't think are saying lock yourself inside.(yet) Pretty disturbing to call 'Eh well try to avoid people' as Social Distancing. On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 11:49 PM Marcus Daniels mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: It’s not about stalling for a treat

Re: [FRIAM] The covid death rate in the US

MITRE’s calculation is even more dire https://www.mitre.org/sites/default/files/publications/COVID-19_MITRE_Action_Paper_March-2020.pdf On Mar 21, 2020, at 8:36 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:  Yesterday Jim showed a plot of deaths in Italy that indicated the growth rate was, possibly, falling

Re: [FRIAM] Indefinite Emergency Powers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/22/pro-trump-west-virginia-fight-convince-residents-pandemic-is-coming/ “burn through them like coal fire”.. From: Friam on behalf of "thompnicks...@gmail.com" Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Sunday, March 22,

Re: [FRIAM] unstated motivation for prediction across "phase transitions"

I would say working for the government, a university, or an established corporation is akin to be a well-kept pet. Sure people work to gain entry into those organizations. Dogs can work to get adopted too; they have get their audition just right. To work for start-ups is more like being a f

Re: [FRIAM] unstated motivation for prediction across "phase transitions"

Glen writes: < Well, to be clear, I put "phase transition" in scare quotes because I think it's a terrible phrase and a bad analogy to pretty much anything in our psycho-socio-political world. > It may be a usable analogy. One could model some agents as having many short-range and spatially

Re: [FRIAM] unstated motivation for prediction across "phase transitions"

nvironment where the old elites emerged. The pet cages will be different, implying that the pets who settle into them will be different. On 3/23/20 8:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Anyway, it occurs to me this health and financial crisis could have a good > outcome. It could jolt the

Re: [FRIAM] Choroquine-phosphate Death

If he selects his favorites to be at the front of the line for his compassionate care that should help one way the other. He knows that the way to evaluate drug effectiveness is by feel and belief. > On Mar 23, 2020, at 9:42 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: > > My first reaction to this was: THANK

Re: [FRIAM] Choroquine-phosphate Death

The preprint that Barry passed along points out that there are many drugs that vulnerable people are already taking that have off-target effects, and that it could be useful to tabulate that clinical data to see if it explains recovery rates. From: Friam on behalf of Prof David West Reply-To

Re: [FRIAM] Choroquine-phosphate Death

The behavior puts in sharp relief how empty it is to “Give people hope.” It is good in this circumstance to have people at home sobbing under their pillow. From: Friam on behalf of Steven A Smith Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 8:2

Re: [FRIAM] Choroquine-phosphate Death

I think some people are getting in the habit of using "he" to mean "The Idiot" to avoid 1) NSA keyword searches and 2) to generally to avoid recognizing his brand. Marcus From: Friam on behalf of Frank Wimberly Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2020 10:13 AM To: The Fr

Re: [FRIAM] Antiviral and Vaccine development and immune profiling from one of many insiders in the fray..

Alrighty, let's return attention to those genetically-engineered babies! From: Friam on behalf of Steven A Smith Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2020 12:16 PM To: friam@redfish.com Subject: [FRIAM] Antiviral and Vaccine development and immune profiling from one of man

Re: [FRIAM] Social Distance tool

Put this puppy in a backpack. https://www.circlecsupply.com/magnum-12-uo-fence-charger.html From: Friam on behalf of Tom Johnson Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:01 PM To: "Friam@redfish. com" Subject: [FRIAM] Social Distance tool

Re: [FRIAM] wifi repeaters?!

Me too. Also they are nice for connecting desktops at random locations because they give ethernet drops where there is an access point, and you can keep adding access points. From: Friam on behalf of Tom Johnson Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Tuesday, Ma

Re: [FRIAM] wifi repeaters?!

I’ve got 3 Orbis. 400 Mbs wireless, and I actually get that reliably over AT&T fiber optic. From: Friam on behalf of Carl Tollander Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 9:45 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group S

Re: [FRIAM] Antiviral and Vaccine development and immune profiling from one of many insiders in the fray..

I was just being (a little) absurd. But I’ve always thought the best chance for a fix for HIV, especially, is to change the rules of the game out from under the virus. I think people are a little nutty when it comes to genetic engineering. There is no spoon! From: Friam on behalf of Steven

Re: [FRIAM] talk about rabbit holes ...

There’s the singletons library for GHC, and some follow-on work for Dependent Haskell. As far as I can tell it is another one of those drawn-out projects that the Haskell community manages to endure/ignore. From: Friam on behalf of Jon Zingale Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity

Re: [FRIAM] US Digital Response for COVID-19

Hi Glen, It was just a brief intro meeting? How many were on the call? Marcus On 3/27/20, 11:03 AM, "Friam on behalf of thompnicks...@gmail.com" wrote: Great, Glen! Thanks for doing this. If ever there were a list for which this suggestion is appropriate, it would be this one, eh?

Re: [FRIAM] US Digital Response for COVID-19

I haven't been contacted by anyone from the site. On 3/27/20 11:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > It was just a brief intro meeting? How many were on the call? -- ☣ uǝlƃ FRIAM Applied Co

Re: [FRIAM] talk about rabbit holes ...

Jon, I suppose you saw this, just "cabal install cpl". https://github.com/msakai/cpl.git Related stuff: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1508.06779.pdf https://bartoszmilewski.com/2019/10/09/fibrations-cleavages-and-lenses/ Less related to category theory, but perhaps also of interest is the Mercury pr

Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Time to modernize: https://www.totousa.com/products/toilets From: Friam on behalf of Gillian Densmore Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 6:09 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Coronavirus

Re: [FRIAM] covid question

Nick writes: < If we just agreed that we won't intubate anybody over 60, we could have this thing over in a jiffy. > And they've had *all their lives* to buy one and have in their garage. So irresponsible! Marcus From: Friam on behalf of thompnicks...@gmail.c

Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Dave writes: < There are 30,000 known coronaviruses in the animal population just waiting for the opportune moment to jump species. I knew there was a way to solve the climate problem. > I don't think Ms. Gaia cares too much about the authoritarianism problem, though. Marcus

Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx This re-raises Marcus' contribution to preserving the analogy between phase changes and socio-political upheaval: On 3/23/20 9:48 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fict.2016.00014/fu

[FRIAM] blast from the past

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/science/xenobots-robots-frogs-xenopus.html -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6https://bit.ly/virtualfriam to unsubscribe ht

Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

reason to use the phrase. > >> On 4/8/20 2:01 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: >> Looking at metagenomic data is kind of fun. Oh look, in this sample we have >> SARS-Cov2, Green Monkey, and Chlamydia abortus. Who is to say which >> organism is more interesting? It's prob

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Glen writes: < But I've seen many others talk about the breakdown of the boundary between government and corporations as a hallmark of fascist regimes > Any sort of drive toward engineering a group shared purpose is a drive toward fascism. Some apparently benign community organizers are undeve

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

o come from the inside: Jews are usually the best target because they have the advantage of being at the same time inside and outside. In the U.S., a prominent instance of the plot obsession is to be found in Pat Robertson's The New World Order, but, as we have recently seen, there are m

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

one's freedom. So, e.g., when the Rotary guys adopted the purpose to eradicate polio, one might say they were/are *fascist* in their common purpose. But Eco's got 14 points for a reason, because no single attribute really defines the quality. On 4/13/20 10:36 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Among Dave's odd remarks, < CONCLUSION: A population that already mistrusts the Federal government and the"intelligentsia" is given one more reason, backed by hard data, for that mistrust. Also very clear — the population is NOT anti-science but IS very mistrustful of "authoritarian scientists"

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

Nick writes: < The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions. It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk. > Another perspective on prediction. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007

Re: [FRIAM] The fundamental theory of physics

Wasn’t John Baez doing this stuff in the late 90s? From: Friam on behalf of Jochen Fromm Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 11:37 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: [FRIAM] The fundamental theory of p

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Of course, hacking is in fact #5. On 4/15/20, 1:34 PM, "Friam on behalf of Prof David West" wrote: True, it does advance an argument for a rational process (i.e. guidelines). But it also states that such a process can never be other than an idealization (as you note). There co

Re: [FRIAM] The fundamental theory of physics

https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9905087 On 4/15/20, 1:46 PM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: Can you point to what you think Baez was doing that seems similar to what Wolfram's doing? On 4/15/20 11:38 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Wasn’t John Baez doing this

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

Well, I love the idea that all the QM hocus pocus could just boil down to round off. Your "free will" is truncation error. Oops. (Funny contrast with the last episode of Devs.) Marcus From: Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 10:27 AM

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

ewer/rm2036883456.) I was forced to admit it's true. I don't know her or what the next bit in her sequence will produce. On 4/16/20 9:30 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Well, I love the idea that all the QM hocus pocus could just boil down to > round off. Your "free will&qu

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

The queen was wondering too. https://hvmag.com/life-style/history/franklin-delano-roosevelt-the-picnic-that-won-the-war-the-royal-visit-the-hot-dog-summit-of-1939-and-hyde-park-on-the-hudson-movie/ From: Friam on behalf of Frank Wimberly Sent: Thursday, April 1

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

< This conversation is reminding me of 538's constant reiteration that they actually accurately predicted Hillary's election in 2016. > Possibly of interest.. https://journals.jps.jp/doi/full/10.7566/JPSJ.88.061009 From: Friam on behalf of "thompnicks...@gmail.com" Reply-To: The Friday Mo

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Nick writes: < I must be a determinist at heart because I instinctively believe that to say an event is random is to confess one’s ignorance, one’s laziness, or both. > Deterministic systems can behave in an apparently random fashion with tiny diff

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Said the man who dropped a chainsaw through his leg.. Sent from my iPhone On Apr 18, 2020, at 12:02 AM, Stephen Guerin wrote:  Oops, weird slip. Meant Bill Macready On Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 12:55 AM Stephen Guerin mailto:stephen.gue...@simtable.com>> wrote: Eric, Was it Barrier to Objects? ht

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

I think the point is that the relations or contingencies you mention can be cast as posterior probabilities from observed many-body correlations. Distributional thinking works fine in that case too, it is just that some of those conditional probabilities get very close to 1. Others relations a

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Maybe ask a hedge fund? From: Friam on behalf of "thompnicks...@gmail.com" Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 1:16 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' Subject: Re: [FR

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Dave writes: "Scott Adams used none of those methods/tools but, as described in his book — Win Bigly — the language and rhetoric analysis tools/techniques he did use." If that is the world people want, maybe the world just needs to go ahead and burn. Take off the masks, go back to work. Pump

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

The opposite of TLDR is the technique described by Scott Adams. This leads me to posit that those that complain things are TLDR are likely just the incurious, the impatient, and the entitled, and likely to be part of the problem. Is there some particular crisis of their Valuable Attention th

Re: [FRIAM] Influential Covid-19 model shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say - STAT

And yea for ABMs. From: Friam on behalf of "thompnicks...@gmail.com" Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 8:09 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' Subject: [FRIAM] Influential Covid-19 model shouldn't guide U.S.

Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Tip the scales, Florida! https://www.newsweek.com/florida-beaches-florida-moron-twitter-1498750 https://twitter.com/search?q=%23FloridaMorons&src=typed_query On 4/18/20, 4:07 PM, "Friam on behalf of Prof David West" wrote: Consider three entities making 2016 political predictions and thei

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

I have a hard time with this as a way to extend data. If it is high-dimensional it will be under-sampled. Seems better to me to measure or simulate more so that the joint distribution can be realistic. And if you can do that there is no reason to infer the joint distribution because you *ha

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

finitely needed. > >> On 4/19/20 8:29 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: >> I have a hard time with this as a way to extend data. If it is >> high-dimensional it will be under-sampled. Seems better to me to measure >> or simulate more so that the joint distribution can be re

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

rote: Well, the argument I often end up making is that you can do a kind of face validation with the fake data. Show it to someone who's used to dealing with that sort of data and if the fake data looks a lot like the data they normally deal with, then maybe more data-taking isn't n

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

a they normally deal with, then maybe more data-taking isn't necessary. If it looks fake to the "expert", then more data-taking is definitely needed. On 4/19/20 8:29 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: I have a hard time with this as a way to extend data. If it is high-dimensional it will be

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

Dave writes: < Marcus said, "Imagine if everyone had full genome sequencing and every viral sample was deep sequenced." Iceland has something close to this already. > https://www.decode.com/publications/ Marcus .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... . ..

Re: [FRIAM] Tripping on the Rye: She's a Witch! How do you know? . (Re: basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions)

How about lead? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lead-in-americas-water-systems-is-a-national-problem/ https://www.nrdc.org/resources/whats-your-water-flint-and-beyond https://www.vox.com/2016/1/21/10811004/lead-poisoning-cities-us Marcus From: Friam on behalf of St

Re: [FRIAM] Tripping on the Rye: She's a Witch! How do you know? . (Re: basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions)

lready offered right before "duck" :-) https://youtu.be/zrzMhU_4m-g?t=157 On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 12:32 PM Marcus Daniels mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: How about lead? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lead-in-americas-water-systems-is-a-national-problem/ https://www.nrdc.org

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

e this, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-17/chan-zuckerberg-biohub-is-ready-for-coronavirus-tests-to-come -- rec -- On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 1:40 PM Marcus Daniels mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: Dave writes: < Marcus said, "Imagine if everyone had full g

Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

his is the article Donald misunderstood... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html ..so that Carl had to correct him https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1249132628755787782 -J. Original message ---- From: Marcus Daniels Date: 4/1

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

It is weird, though, how widely varying the outcomes are.Just saying it is, say, obesity isn't a very satisfying explanation. https://www.wbez.org/stories/in-chicago-70-of-covid-19-deaths-are-black/dd3f295f-445e-4e38-b37f-a1503782b507 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

omorbidities are the real killers. The most serious comorbidity of them all is poverty. On 4/20/20 9:50 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > It is weird, though, how widely varying the outcomes are.Just saying it is, say, obesity isn't a very satisfying explanation. >

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

D-19 is the comorbidity for those *other* things. On 4/20/20 10:30 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > There are apparently a large set of silent spreaders, and then in-between cases like this: > > https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/entertainment/nick-cordero-coronavirus-leg-am

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

I looked over that Schneier list, but I didn't find the one that talks about policing the crazy people. :-) https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/coronavirus-colorado-health-care-trnd/index.html On 4/20/20, 11:53 AM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: Not more elaborate, but it falls direct

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

people as Evil Geniuses, intent on damaging the world. When you stare into a troll's eyes, the troll stares back at you. On 4/20/20 12:00 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > I looked over that Schneier list, but I didn't find the one that talks about policing the crazy people. :-)

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

My main concern would be about their priorities: We should figure out what to do about this rather than who to blame for it. If the original source were a lab that changes little right now compared to if it were a market. On 4/20/20, 1:51 PM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: You

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

e virus, those aware of that information would find some way to smuggle it out, at least to WHO. davew On Mon, Apr 20, 2020, at 3:23 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: My main concern would be about their priorities: We should figure out what to do about this rather than who to blame for it. If the origi

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

;t evolve much at all. And only if it's under some sort of pressure to evolve (e.g. the immune system) would it do so quickly. What *would* you people who can read all this stuff *expect* to happen? On 4/20/20 3:57 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > As a ballpark the recepto

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

For some reason the links didn't send.. https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/next-hcov-19-app/ https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/480312/fphar-11-00078-HTML-r1/image_m/fphar-11-00078-g001.jpg On 4/20/20, 4:46 PM, "Friam on behalf of Marcus Daniels" wrote: Com

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Glen writes: < I can see that the diversity seems to peak as the infections ramp up in the US and EU. And there's only a handful of spots where the diversity shoots up, only to level off later. > Well, the color-coded phylogeny is looking at a tiny sampling of the infected world. I wouldn't d

Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!

Dave writes: < I think this discussion notes that Covid evolves in response to pressures originating in the host. And I have read articles talking about genetic difference among hosts as partially responsible for the variance in severity of the disease. > There is an effort to look at this (h

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