What part of the analysis am I getting wrong?
The problem with futures is storage fees tend to overwhelm price movements.
Plus the nickel promised by those futures might not even be the type of
nickel you can use for LENR.
If you were going to use the market, I'd look more at nickel miners who
expectations.
Dave
-Original Message-
From: blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Aug 8, 2013 8:18 am
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Re-adjusting odds on Rossi/Defkalion being real lower, now
~27%
What part of the analysis am I getting wrong?
The problem
expectations.
Dave
-Original Message-
From: blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Aug 8, 2013 8:18 am
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Re-adjusting odds on Rossi/Defkalion being real lower,
now ~27%
What part of the analysis am I getting wrong
]:Re-adjusting odds on Rossi/Defkalion being real lower, now
~27%
I suspect the biggest impact will be on such uneconomical (and highly
polluting) energy sources such as the Oil Sands in Canada. Buying long term
put options on those seems like a smart play (with appropriate inflation
hedges
spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Aug 8, 2013 10:33 am
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Re-adjusting odds on Rossi/Defkalion being real lower,
now ~27%
I suspect the biggest impact will be on such uneconomical (and highly
polluting) energy sources such as the Oil Sands
: Thu, Aug 8, 2013 10:33 am
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Re-adjusting odds on Rossi/Defkalion being real lower,
now ~27%
I suspect the biggest impact will be on such uneconomical (and highly
polluting) energy sources such as the Oil Sands in Canada. Buying long
term put options on those seems like
potentials.
Dave
-Original Message-
From: blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Aug 8, 2013 10:33 am
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Re-adjusting odds on Rossi/Defkalion being real lower,
now ~27%
I suspect the biggest impact
@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Aug 8, 2013 12:07 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Re-adjusting odds on Rossi/Defkalion being real lower, now
~27%
I think our atmosphere will be artificial also. Too many germs in our current
one
On Thursday, August 8, 2013, Axil Axil wrote:
Once science understands and gainstotal
On Thu, Aug 8, 2013 at 5:18 AM, blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.comwrote:
Of course, another possibility may be that LENR isn't real so the market is
ignoring it.
The thought occurred to me. But even if the majority of people didn't
think LENR is real, I assume that a portion of them
when people want to make good decision they need good information.
when people advise you but have no flesh in the game, they migh fall into
wishfull thinking, conformist vision, submission to consensus by fear.
betting, like investing have been observing as less delusional, and
information from
The reason is to inject reality into the conversation.
I am thinking of a new formation of a bet.
A generally accepted detailed description of a consistently reproducible
experiment which can perform a COP of 2 for over 24 hours (that is total
energy in is 1/2 of total energy out).
By
You don't need to look any further then.
Take a heat pump and you have something to celebrate.
On Wed, Aug 7, 2013 at 12:02 PM, blaze spinnaker
blazespinna...@gmail.comwrote:
The reason is to inject reality into the conversation.
I am thinking of a new formation of a bet.
A generally
Yeah? A heat pump uses LENR+? Huh. And here I thought it was pumping
heat.
On Wed, Aug 7, 2013 at 3:58 AM, Teslaalset robbiehobbiesh...@gmail.comwrote:
You don't need to look any further then.
Take a heat pump and you have something to celebrate.
On Wed, Aug 7, 2013 at 12:02 PM, blaze
In case you're also not familiar with Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump
Heat pumps are used to provide heating because less high-grade energy is
required for their operation than appears in the released heat. Most of the
energy for heating comes from the external environment, and only
It's not wiki, it's Wikipedia. Woo, I can say obvious things too, look at
that.
On Wed, Aug 7, 2013 at 6:53 AM, Teslaalset robbiehobbiesh...@gmail.comwrote:
In case you're also not familiar with Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump
Heat pumps are used to provide heating because
Alain Sepeda alain.sep...@gmail.com wrote:
about LENR I have another fear.
It is an easy bet to claim LENR is real, and LENR+ will be industrial one
day.
the problem is that this depend on the opinion of a huge mass of
delusional people, who can infinitely impede the recognition and
blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
A generally accepted detailed description of a consistently reproducible
experiment . . .
How consistent? As consistent as transistors were in 1954? As consistent as
a Model T crank starter, or would you demand something like a production
I wrote:
As my late mother said, people responding to polls tend to say whatever
pops into their heads at that moment. (She was an expert on public opinion
research.)
Seriously, she did say that, and she was an expert. See:
Such results were published in 1990 by McKubre and others.
Really? Than why aren't the MFMP guys using that paper rather than
reporting 5% excess energy with celani wires?
about death commando and dron I exxagerate, but it is based on fact.
GMOP research in france is dead because of permanent harassement,
destruction of tools, lobbying on mayors agains factoris and research...
Same for shales.
today in france research is forbidden on GMO and shales. not only usage,
On Wed, Aug 7, 2013 at 3:29 AM, Alain Sepeda alain.sep...@gmail.com wrote:
when people want to make good decision they need good information.
when people advise you but have no flesh in the game, they migh fall into
wishfull thinking, conformist vision, submission to consensus by fear.
And
because they try to fight the delusion...
we all do.
Taleb says that for something serious, 1 or 2 evidence is enough...
I put FP longchampt, someone else put McKubre and Miley... some bockris
and BARC...
Elforsk test is positive, no serious doubt... just mental wank and lazy
reader who
blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
Such results were published in 1990 by McKubre and others.
Really? Than why aren't the MFMP guys using that paper rather than
reporting 5% excess energy with celani wires?
For the reasons I described in my presentation at ICCF18. It takes most
-adjusting odds on Rossi/Defkalion being real lower, now
~27%
blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
Such results were published in 1990 by McKubre and others.
Really? Than why aren't the MFMP guys using that paper rather than reporting
5% excess energy with celani wires
David Roberson dlrober...@aol.com wrote:
Apparently the attack on your site has begun. Someone may not want the
information contained there distributed further. :-)
If that attack is the best the government spooks can pull off, we have
nothing to fear from the NSA. The hacker did not even
On Wed, Aug 7, 2013 at 3:02 AM, blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.comwrote:
I am thinking of a new formation of a bet.
Just to go off on a tangent here (I'm good for that), I'm open-minded about
the possibilities of prediction markets. It seems like people have the
ability to use bayesian
Given the various disappointments lately(weak defkalion demo, 'freeze on
customer relations' by Luca, background research on various contributors,
no interesting replications of Celani, etc), I'm currently re-adjusting my
odds of Rossi/Defkalion being real lower.
I was previously willing to give
blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
I was previously willing to give 4:1(20%) odds and take 1:1(50%) that an
article would be presented in a reputable journal
As things stand I think there is no chance that any article will be
published in a respectable journal or mass media
As things stand I think there is no chance that any article will be
published in a respectable journal or mass media newspaper or website.
Well, unless things have changed in the last few years to make cold fusion
even more disreputable, this simply isn't true. I'll let Kevin fill you in
on the
Anyways. Talk is cheap. If you think it's such a low chance - bet me!
On Tue, Aug 6, 2013 at 7:48 AM, blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.comwrote:
As things stand I think there is no chance that any article will be
published in a respectable journal or mass media newspaper or website.
blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
As things stand I think there is no chance that any article will be
published in a respectable journal or mass media newspaper or website.
Well, unless things have changed in the last few years to make cold fusion
even more disreputable, this
OK jed!
On Tue, Aug 6, 2013 at 7:56 AM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote:
blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
As things stand I think there is no chance that any article will be
published in a respectable journal or mass media newspaper or website.
Well, unless things
Mark Gibbs demonstrated what happens to mainstream reporters who talk
about cold fusion. I realize that he denies he was fired for talking
about cold fusion, but I think he is being diplomatic. His last
article said he planned to talk more about it, so he did not see this
coming.
***That's the
He didn't say he was fired. It could as easily have been a disagreement
over editorial policy causing him to resign. There is a difference.
Moreover, his statement does indicate this, rather than him being fired
was what happened.
On Tue, Aug 6, 2013 at 7:43 PM, Kevin O'Malley
Forgive me for asking this, but what, exactly, is the point in making bets as
to whether LENR is real, will come to market, will be published in a reputable
journal, etc? For me, this line of discussion is a childish distraction. Go to
Vegas. (Maybe Laughlin,would be more to your style).
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