At 05:24 PM 10/16/2007 +0100, you wrote:
--On 16 October 2007 09:15:16 -0400 Ode Coyote <odecoy...@alltel.net> wrote:
That depends on the flu strain.
The H5N1bird flu, so far, has a 60% survival rate...IF... you have access
to a ventilator to keep you breathing.
That's the human engineered variety.
### Nature never has surprises?
A virus never morphs using a hosts DNA?
Gee whiz!
I did not know that humans had absolute control.
That's about a 90% mortality rate without one and most well equipped
hospitals only have a dozen or so.
It's not that "flu" that kills you, it's a healthy bodies over response
to it that drowns you in it's own defense mechanism.
Old people with weak immune systems actually survive better.
So it is speculated. I have seen no subsatantial research on this idea. DO
you suggest a paper?
## Look into the existing cases and what it took to keep those folks
alive. It's not a secret.
If that one does mutate, it'll be a lot worse than the Spanish flu that
killed millions world wide in the early 1900s.
It could, however, also mutate into harmlessness, or a flu with a 99.9%
survival rate.
If: I think it does all the time.
## Maybe. Or just dies out for lack of new hosts.
I imagine meat eaters will kill the vulnerable young and old, if they
don't restrain themselves - in the country too.
## Hungry vegetarians will eat anything just like anyone else.
If the flu don't get you, starvation or hordes of hungry, scared and
about to be very ill people, probably will.
The vulnerable - not necessarily me.
It's not the flu that kills you, but mismanagement of flu cases: early
intervention, with fresh air is needed, not heat. Rest. A shawl might be
better, first. Then if heat is needed, radiant wood fire, with window
open. SAlt water for the passages, A flannel for fever. Body exercises
which loosen and strengthen congested areas, in the head, neck, and
shoulder, nasal, throat, chest areas. Relieves flu in a few short hours.
But there's no comparative study. Spanish flu epidemic is not a god
example, as it was engendered by vaccines, I believe.
## Many "normal" flues will choke you up AFTER it is gone, for weeks.
That's your own body doing it, "cleaning house"....not the flu bug. It's
done, you aren't.
Kill it fast and early, less damage to clean up. But lungs, nasal
passages and sinuses are only the tip of the systemic ice burg... a
treatment of symptoms, not causes.
Once a virus is contracted, it's too late for a vaccine and using one may
actually make it worse, piling a less harmful similar strain on top of
another, adding a merely uncomfortable defense to an up and coming deadly
defense mechanism...cleaning up twice at once...a little added to a lot.
With H5N1, it's the clean up that kills at a very high rate without help
for quite a while after the bug has succumbed to antibodies.
The body does successfully kill the bug, but then the body itself, kills
itself.
Transmission windows open before symptoms are felt, ready to go at the
first sign of a cough.
Tamiflu sorta works, but has a very narrow time window where it does
anything at all. Too early or too late?...nothing.
And there isn't nearly enough of it to go around or the people skill to
know when to use it.
The type of cells H5N1 can now key into are deep in the lungs where very
few copies ever get to and don't become aerosolized much by coughing. But
only a slight shift in viral structure can make eyes, nose and throat into
a viable target for attachment and replication and hence, easy person to
person transmission, shifting the dominant variant with more available hosts.
It has already jumped species. So far, it's a long jump.
It is already person to person communicable, just not very communicable.
THAT is what has biologists worried. It doesn't have to make a very big
shift at all to become quite nasty.
A virus uses the persons own DNA to adapt and every time it finds a new
host, it tries to adapt to the next type of cells using the last type as a
springboard pattern, each replication just a little different, using the
DNA from the next type it infected in a single host, till it finds the
right key for the next transmission lock.
That's a billion to one chance, maybe....but with a ten trillion tries per
case, could very easily happen.
That's "probably will" "MIGHT not" odds...with a decent chance of
catching it in the act with very close observation.
PLUS, less likely odds of a direct bird to human variant transmission key
popping up as more and more birds fall ill.
That part of the game is like playing "Whack a Mole", with migrating flying
moles. Absolute unpredictability, anywhere, anywhen...low odds, but
uncontrollable numbers of tries.
I thought it was all "scare" too...till I looked closer.
Turns out:
"They" are scared silly and have good reason to be.
Governments want to deny problems as much as anyone....and they aren't
denying this one.
What sort of evidence does that take? Damned good evidence and a
selfish motivation.
Do nothing? All cost and no taxes.
A Governments bread and butter is growth, not death.
Old folks represent immanent cost, they've stopped growing...mostly drag,
little pull.
If it's mostly old folks that survive, as is the case with *this* flu,
costs double and taxes based on growth just vanish.
If it were mostly old folks that died... "blind eye" would be the
unofficial norm.
"If this happens, we [ the gov'ment, any gov'ment ] are going down the
tubes with a big loud flushing sound in a matter of weeks."
Of course, if it *doesn't* happen, or does and is stopped fast... we can
all point fingers and laugh at all those silly tired scientists.
I'll laugh right along with everyone, but for a different reason. I'll be
very glad for the privilege.
Right now, they're scared enough to not care and way too busy tracking down
cases in the boonies to think about that.
They have children to lose, like everyone else, but no ignorance to keep
them feeling safe and happy.
Contrary to popular belief, scientists are not inhuman "flakes".
Meanwhile, the people in those remote villages don't want all their
chickens and geese killed and sick relatives hauled away to be poked and
prodded by strangers. They resist giving information.
Quite understandable.
Modern disease transmission vectors are hundreds of times faster and more
complete than ever before...but control has increased as well.
With this *un-usual* one, killing mostly the young and strong and no way
to stop it... no plan works if it goes out of initial control.
It's "toast", how dark? "Biblical style"
Ode
JOhn
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