On 3/2/07, Matt Mahoney <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
--- Jef Allbright <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > On 3/2/07, Matt Mahoney <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Second, I used the same reasoning to guess about the nature of the > universe > > (assuming it is simulated), and the only thing we know is that shorter > > simulation programs are more likely than longer ones. My conclusion was > that > > bizarre behavior or a sudden end is unlikely, because such events would > not > > occur in the simplest programs. This ought to at least be reassuring. > > Consider that while the trunk of the universal tree of the probable > grows increasingly stable, the branches do often swing in the winds, > and many of the thinner branches of the possible do not survive. > > Do you assume that humanity is presently nestled in the crook of a > highly probable branch? If our own branch were to break, would you > take comfort in knowing that the tree itself stands strong?
I am not sure how the tree analogy applies, but given a Solomonff distribution, an enumeration of Turing machines (multiverse model) is vastly more likely than any of the other scenarios I described.
I was afraid I might lose you with metaphor, but I was hoping to avoid the trap so common here of using technical terminology more as incantation than precise explication. With reference to your statement about shorter programs being more likely than longer ones [I agree, of course], such shorter programs would correspond to descriptions of more fundamental (more probable) aspects of our world, i.e. the more fundamental laws of physics, while longer programs would describe the less probable aspects of a world displaying the complexity of biology or even humanity. I was trying to point out that your statement of reassurance seems to have you identifying -- seemingly mistakenly -- with the highly probable aspects of the "tree trunk", rather than with the relatively improbable, more algorithmically complex branch that represents humanity. - Jef ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
