You could start by noticing that I already pointed out that evolution
cannot play any possible role.
I rather suspect that the things that you call "speculation" and
"fantasy" are only seeming that way to you because you have not
understood them, since, in fact, you have not addressed any of the
specifics of those proposals ..... and when people do not address the
specifics, but immediately start to slander the whole idea as "fantasy"
they usually do this because they cannot follow the arguments.
Sorry to put it so bluntly, but I just talked so *very* clearly about
why evolution cannot play a role, and you ignored every single word of
that explanation and instead stated, baldly, that evolution was the most
important aspect of it. I would not criticise your remarks so much if
you had not just demonstrated such a clear inability to pay any
attention to what is going on in this discussion.
Richard Loosemore
Mike Tintner wrote:
Every speculation on this board about the nature of future AGI's has
been pure fantasy. Even those which try to dress themselves up in some
semblance of scientific reasoning. All this speculation, for example,
about the friendliness and emotions of future AGI's has been non-sense -
and often from surprisingly intelligent people.
Why? Because until we have a machine that even begins to qualify as an
AGI - that has the LEAST higher adaptivity - until IOW AGI's EXIST- we
can't begin seriously to predict how they will evolve, let alone whether
they will "take off." And until we've seen a machine that actually has
functioning emotions and what purpose they serve, ditto we can't predict
their future emotions.
So how can you cure yourself if you have this apparently incorrigible
need to produce speculative fantasies with no scientific basis in
reality whatsoever?
I suggest : first speculate about the following:
what will be the next stage of HUMAN evolution? What will be the next
significant advance in the form of the human species - as significant,
say, as the advance from apes, or - ok - some earlier form like
Neanderthals?
Hey, if you are prepared to speculate about fabulous future AGI's,
predicting that relatively small evolutionary advance shouldn't be too
hard. But I suggest that if you do think about future human evolution
your mind will start clamming up. Why? Because you will have a sense of
physical/ evolutionary constraints (unlike AGI where people seem to have
zero sense of technological constraints), - an implicit recognition that
any future human form will have to evolve from the present form - and
to make predictions, you will have to explain how. And you will know
that anything you say may only serve to make an ass of yourself. So any
prediction you make will have to have SOME basis in reality and not just
in science fiction. The same should be true here.
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