Ok, just to close this properly:

Extending your textual reasoning should look like this:

- If the first step is skipped (probability x) then we're done.
- Otherwise (probability (1-x)) if the second step is skipped 
(probability y) then we're done.
- Still otherwise (probability (1-x)(1-y)) if the third step is 
skipped (probability z) then we're done.

So you'd get
x + (1-x)*y + (1-x)*(1-y)*z
or
x + (1-x) * (y + (1-y) * z).

This works but is is complicated. You ask for "at least one step 
skipped". You could try to solve similar but extreme cases cause those 
are generally easier, e.g. "all steps skipped" (probability x*y*z) or 
"no steps skipped" (probability (1-x)(1-y)(1-z)). And if you then 
realized that "at least one" is the opposite of "none" then you could 
answer your question simply by:
1 - (1-x)(1-y)(1-z)

Cheers!
Stefan


--- In [email protected], "Stefan Pochmann" 
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> --- In [email protected], "Stefan Pochmann" 
> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > --- In [email protected], "Mike Bennett" 
> > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > >
> > > --- In [email protected], "Stefan Pochmann"
> > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Yep. Can you also show a concise formula for three things, i.
e. 
> x, 
> > y 
> > > > and z?
> > > 
> > > Px + (Pnotx * Py + (Pnoty* Pz))
> > > 
> > > That still seems not right, though.
> > 
> > Why not? (True, it isn't, but why do *you* say so?)
> 
> Actually I shouldn't have told you. I should let you do some 
> verification yourself first. For example some general obvious tests. 
> It's a probability, so it should be between 0 and 1. Obviously it's 
> never less than 0, but it's easy to get it above 1. Also, symmetry. 
> Choose three different values for x, y and z. Then change their 
order, 
> e.g. swapping the values of x and y. The value should stay the same, 
> but does it?
> 
> Cheers!
> Stefan
>







 
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