The probability that you don't any step is:
7/8*5/6*26/27*11/12 = 5005/7776

So the probability that you skip at least one step is:
1-5005/7776 = 2771/7776 ~ 35.6%

Sven

--- In [email protected], "Mike Bennett"
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> --- In [email protected], "Stefan Pochmann"
> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > --- In [email protected], "Mike Bennett" 
> > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > > 
> > > OE, PC, OC, PE.  1/8 + 1/6 + 1/27 + 1/12 = 89/216 (~41%)
> > > 
> > > And if that's wrong, I'd like to blame my 4th grade teacher. ;)
> > 
> > For 4x4 reducing it to 3x3, you have those two parity problems. Each 
> > has 50% chance of skipping. Does that mean you have 50%+50%=100% 
> > chance of skipping one of them? Btw, cool that you learn probability 
> > in 4th grade already! Too bad your teacher screwed it :-)
> > 
> > Cheers!
> > Stefan
> 
> No.  I learned adding fractions using common denominators.  And I
> realize there is some overlap because some cases will have two or more
> skips in them, but I was unsure how to factor that in.  Would you
> please explain how?  That would be very helpful. I'm trying to work
> out some probabilities like that for an idea I've had about the Roux
> step 4.
> 
> -Mike
>






 
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