I think I would be better advised to keep clear of this particular dust-up (on breast cancer risk and alcohol intake) even if it was my post (on cannabis!) which seems to have ignited it. Yet I'm intrigued by the discrepancy in the statistics quoted by Chris and Allen. So while Allen sleeps, which is presumably what they do in England at this time of night...
Chris says: "Would you change your lifestyle dramatically to reduce a risk by 2 in 10,000". Allen instead calculates a reduction in risk of 1 in 100. I think I see the problem. Chris is using annual statistics, i.e. cases in a single year. Allen is using lifetime statistics, up to age 75. I think the decision to change one's lifestyle is best made on the basis of lifetime risk, hence Allen's statistics apply. In my opinion, a reduction in the lifetime risk of breast cancer of 1 in 100 is not trivial, although its personal significance would depend on how dearly you love alcohol. Of course, as has been noted, it would also require that the relationship between breast cancer and drinking be causal, which has not been shown. But I'm also intrigued by the note Chris reminded us he posted on February 25th, the one where he deplores the sensationalism of a BBC article on breast cancer risk and alcohol intake. Recently, he laid into me for my own complaint against a press release (the teenage brain and cannabis one), his point being that as it's all BS anyway, why bother mentioning it. I did find this dismissive and perhaps even a teensy bit condescending. So I'm pleased to discover that he doesn't always think that identifying BS in science is not worth doing. Me, I think it's always worth doing. Stephen ----------------------------------------------------------------- Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University e-mail: [email protected] 2600 College St. Sherbrooke QC J1M 1Z7 Canada ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected])
