On Tue, Sep 11, 2012 at 5:27 PM, PGage <[email protected]> wrote: > > I agree that the increase in pre-convention negative ads is probably a > factor in keeping down convention viewing, and the consequent bounce. If O > keeps a significant portion of his superior bounce, it may lead to changes > next time around - maybe even getting opposing candidates to hold fire on > negative ads until after the conventions. Romney is getting bashed by > Republican insiders for not airing more positive ads before the convention > to support the "get to know him" program at the convention. Nate is also > suggesting that in the future the opposing candidate may schedule their > convention earlier to avoid getting caught up in the backwash of the > incumbent party's convention, as has now happened twice in a row to both > Obama in 08 and Romney in 12.
When I learned the rules of negative ads as part of environmental leadership training, they went like this: after a succession of get-to-know-the-candidate ads, the trailing candidate launches a negative ad to bring down the favorable numbers for the leader. If polling shows the gap narrowing the leader will respond with his/her own negative ad. If the gap remains or widens, the leader will put out an ad chiding the opposing campaign for using such desperate tactics. The current model does not follow these rules; it is now go negative early and keep hammering. The addition of SuperPAC ads, which the candidate's campaign staff cannot schedule or control, contributes to the onslaught. I am not sure where this tactic comes from. I think over the past few years large amounts of money came into congressional or state legislature races and incumbents were ousted in favor of complete unknowns who were not part of the local political structure and did not do lots of the door knocking and community events which long-time politicians do. So I think somebody is trying to scale this up to a presidential race. Nobody knows if it will work and nobody knows how to read the feedback which comes from polling to make necessary changes in order to become more effective. If Obama wins, campaign managers and political scientists will conclude that more may not be better in negative political ads and the vast amounts of money a national campaign brings in should be used in a more nuanced way. If Romney wins campaign managers will want to bring that result to their clients and the new rule might be to go negative and never stop. For moving convention dates earlier, that becomes a slippery slope akin to moving primary dates earlier. I am afraid we will eventually see conventions moved up earlier and earlier. -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
