On Wed, Sep 12, 2012 at 1:33 PM, PGage <[email protected]> wrote: > Your nice description of the traditional playbook for implementing negative > ads, and why that is being violated this cycle, is consistent with what I > have been reading, though I think many professional political consultants > are already concluding that going straight to the negative, without first > building on the positive "get-to-know" you ads, has been a mistake for > Romney, given his lack of traction over the summer and post-convention. Even > if the expected onslaught of negative ads in the battleground states > materializes (perhaps it already has, we are somewhat insulated out here in > the Blue) and helps Romney win, I don't think it will be interpreted as > validating the earlier go-negative strategy.
That is possible. In the two local instances I thought of, the outside money came in very late, so it does not parallel this national race. In those state legislative races two comfortable and well liked Democratic incumbents were challenged by unknown Republican challengers. Incumbency is such a powerful factor that in the spring the GOP felt its primary was only going to produce a loser so there was no effort to find the best candidate or to have potential candidates do any serious leg work or media work. Then, in both cases, a week before election day, the incumbent sent out a panicked message to supporters for contributions to counter an onslaught of negative ads which were hurting the incumbent. So the timing was important here because the incumbent had no time to raise the necessary money. > > In any case, I expect the Republican Convention in 2016 to be moved back to > its usual spot in mid to late July. I do not think Biden will run for president in 2016 (because of age) and having two open tickets will affect the timing of the conventions. -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
