[I believe it more important to sub-Saharan Africa as a whole that the Congo succeed than South Africa. Why? Because the Congo has strategic location, a larger population, and offers greater market potential. A successful Congo can drive growth in a far larger area of Africa than can South Africa. The Congo is in the heart of Africa; its pulse will drive Africa more than will South Africa. And South Africa is still mired in intense racial conflict. South African leaders understand this, and see the Congo as a long-term threat.
My own view is that the Congo is a near term threat. Serious investment in the Congo and its people will cause massive and very rapid economic growth there, and I might add, very diverse growth. It’s not just metals. Just think about the potential of the Congo River basin as a whole, its extraordinary river and transportation networks, and 50 million plus people cranking out productivity. Then think about the nine countries immediately on its border, and the countries that border them. We’re talking an economic dynamo of unparalleled proportions here when we talk of the Congo. That threatens South Africa. It would draw scarce investment away from South Africa. It would cause a new economic competitor to rise from the ashes and force South Africans to compete at far lower prices than they currently charge. I’m not convinced the South Africans can fight off that kind of hungry competition. Congo Vision: What do you see as threats to peace and stability in the Great Lake region of Africa? MAREK: Internal instability inside the DR Congo is the main threat to stability in the entire region. Forget about Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, the Congo Republic, Zambia, the Central African Republic, even forget about Angola with its diamond-oil only economy , its starving 11 million people, and its incredibly corrupt government. None of those countries are players in the stability of the Great Lakes region. The Congo calls those shots. It has been many people’s advantage for Uganda and Rwanda to keep the Congo-Zaire unstable. Rwanda and Uganda have been getting their way in Western capitals and international financial institutions by selling the Congo-Zaire as the bad guy and selling themselves as the founts of stability. That Western leaders have fallen for that is an embarrassment to me. This is a time when the Congolese people are going to have to rise to the occasion. They are the region’s only hope. The Congolese people have to unite and get very vocal and very active. I don’t know how to incite them to do that, given their terrible past experiences with politics, but someone has to incite them to rise up and lay down the law, or they need some kind of God-sent spontaneous combustion to ignite them. Once the Congolese people are driving their own destiny, once they have unified and gotten their economy organized and their internal differences under control, then I see no threats to peace or stability in the region at all. The Congolese people will present no military threat to anyone. It’s not in their nature. They are peace loving people. They have nothing to gain from invading tiny little Rwanda, Burundi, or landlocked Uganda. The Congolese don’t need the Congo Republic’s or Angola’s oil, they don’t need Zambia’s copper, they don’t need the Central African Republic’s minerals, and they don’t need Sudan’s gum arabic. The Congolese have their own outlet to the Atlantic, friendly relations with Tanzania gives them an outlet to the Indian Ocean, and, much like was the case with the vast USA, the Congo has plenty of resources of its own to develop and plenty of manpower to drive a very energetic economy. The threats to peace and stability in this region include any action that causes the Congo to fragment or causes the country to be unstable. The Rwandan and Ugandan invasions have done both those things. The Congolese people are going to have to find a way to rise above those events, set them aside, and focus on pulling themselves up by their bootstraps and get on with life. They simply cannot allow these external influences to destabilize them any longer. I’d be tempted to build a fence around the country, temporarily shut down the borders, cut off all immigration, and turn inward to get organized and going, and then open up. Simplistic view, I know, but it gives you the sense for what I think needs to happen. Keep posted... more to come. Congo just need a dream to ignite (Amundala)
