Axil Axil <janap...@gmail.com> wrote: > This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve > at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. The > processing power and memory capacity necessary to match general > intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated. . . . > Ah, I see what comparison this is. This is roughly the number of brain synapses multiplied by processing speed. Yes, that has been far ahead of computers for a long time. The raw speed of some computations that do not require a large memory has been faster in computers since they were invented, but that is a different metric.
There was a comparison some time ago of computing power versus the human brain, with an animated graphic showing how long it would take to full Lake Michigan if you double the amount of water you add each year. See: "Welcome, Robot Overlords. Please Don't Fire Us? Smart machines probably won't kill us all—but they'll definitely take our jobs, and sooner than you think." http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation QUOTES: Suppose it's 1940 and Lake Michigan has (somehow) been emptied. Your job is to fill it up using the following rule: To start off, you can add one fluid ounce of water to the lake bed. Eighteen months later, you can add two. In another 18 months, you can add four ounces. And so on. Obviously this is going to take a while. By 1950, you have added around a gallon of water. But you keep soldiering on. By 1960, you have a bit more than 150 gallons. By 1970, you have 16,000 gallons, about as much as an average suburban swimming pool. . . . IF YOU HAVE ANY KIND OF BACKGROUND in computers, you've already figured out that I didn't pick these numbers out of a hat. I started in 1940 because that's about when the first programmable computer was invented. I chose a doubling time of 18 months because of a cornerstone of computer history called Moore's Law, which famously estimates that computing power doubles approximately every 18 months. And I chose Lake Michigan because its size, in fluid ounces, is roughly the same as the computing power of the human brain measured in calculations per second. . . . - Jed
