On Sep 25, 2008, at 3:20 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote:
Robin van Spaandonk wrote:
>Experts at the Naval Research Laboratory estimate that
>cold fusion can be fully developed and commercialized for roughly
>$300 million to $600 million . . .
[snip]
If my device works, it could be thousands of times more effective
than the
current CF reactors, and could be developed for less than 2 million
dollars (and
that's a very high estimate).
Well, it would still cost hundreds of millions to make it into a
practical device.
At ICCF-14 another NRL person told me, "we are one breakthrough away
from a practical device." I think Celani may also be in that
position, but let us wait to see if he is replicated. Arata also has
promising approach but who knows what to make of his calorimetry.
No one is even close to a breakthrough until the mechanism is
understood. Simply replicating a process that works is only the first
step. This only makes possible a search for the mechanism, a process
that will take much money and time. Even after the mechanism is
understood, many more millions will be needed to show that the device
is safe and will last long enough to be practical. Meanwhile, most
investment money will go into solar and wind where the advantages are
obvious and where a return on the dollar can be calculated. Cold
fusion will get pennies until it can discover the mechanism though
lucky chance. Meanwhile, we all can beat on the system to make it
more receptive when the mechanism is discovered.
Ed
- Jed
