At 03:42 AM 8/3/2011, Jouni Valkonen wrote:
Accoriding Steven Krivit (#3 report and some earlier writing), Daniele was also present at 18 hour test (i have not seen other sources). Therefore he is within the greates fraud of cold fusion or tells truth that world is saved, because he knows with certainty whether E-Cat is for real or a hoax.
Passerini doesn't know for certain, period. The 18 hour test was, very likely, flawed, i.e., while the approach would seem to be more reliable, the way it was done damaged that reliability. I get an image from the old Keystone Cop movies, of clowns falling all over each other.
I won't list the problems with that test, but conclusive, it was not. Further, I now strongly suspect Rossi of a type of fraud. He's quite capable of deception, and once that possibility exists with support, it's impossible to trust any demonstration that he controls. If he's for real, he could still arrange conclusive testing, but he's been adamant in opposition to it, consider Jed Rothwell's offer.
From what I understand, the 18-hour test would have been operating out of control. When power allegedly hit 130 kW, the reaction chamber would have melted down. Even if this thing didn't melt for some reason, control by heat would obviously not be possible any more, that control depends on remaining below optimal operating temperature (and that's a reason why Rossi downgraded his COP claims, if we want to continue postulating that he's for real), and control by cooling would also not be possible, because they were already running the most possible water available through the device, 1 liter per second. If I'd have seen that power level, I'd have immediately flooded the thing with nitrogen, if I didn't just run!
We don't have data on that test. Sure, Passerini might have been convinced. That does not mean that he's on on the fraud. It could mean that he's been fooled just like everyone else.
(What could be wrong with that test? My comment above about 130 kW is a "how come" argument, and these are never conclusive. This one just indicates a reason to be suspicious. More to the point would be that we don't have data; but if we extrapolate from what Levi told Nyteknik about this test, the temperature rise from the heating was about 5 degrees or so. The heating was measured inside the E-cat, instead of in the hose. So temperature differentials inside the E-cat could explain this. Without detailed data, no way to tell.)
I guess that indeed he is right, because impact will enormous, both mental and economical. Not least because people ask why this was not 'discovered' earlier? Why we have poured so many gigadollars and several kiloscientists to ridiculous hot fusion research what is at it's best something that we definetely do not want (expensive and polluting).
That error stands even if Rossi is as phoney as a wooden nickel. However, if Rossi fails to deliver in October -- no matter what the reason! -- the entire field of cold fusion takes a black eye, and the researchers and supporters who jumped on the bandwagon without adequate evidence (or naively believing that there was adequate evidence) will have been responsible, by default if nothing else. Some researchers have been assiduous in pointing out the problems, but others have supported Rossi, particularly by deflecting the bogus impossibility arguments without making it clear that just because Ni-H reactions are possible doesn't mean that Rossi actually has done what he claimed.
And I'd now bet that Rossi will fail to deliver. Rossi's recent comments indicate that he is still struggling with reliability. That's almost the whole banana! Getting occasionally strong results is a classic cold fusion phenomenon, and addressing this, finding strong evidence, required using statistical techniques and correlated results, and strong controls. Rossi has denied the value of controls.
Since he has *not* solved the reliability problem, and while it's not impossible that he will, the strong indication is that without major funding and without plenty of time, he won't make it. He's got to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Only he knows how close he is, so I could be wrong. But I wouldn't bet on it. If he's working 18-hour days to meet the deadline, he's on the edge. Or over it.
Rossi's fraud is about the strength and reliability of his results, and I find that evidence of deliberate deception there is overwhelming, that's a very recent conclusion, just yesterday. He knows what he's doing.
The end game: if he delivers by the end of October, obviously the demonstration fraud becomes almost completely irrelevant. If he does not deliver, he's probably going to have to arrange real demonstrations to continue. Those demonstrations will no longer be naive, and conclusive techniques will be used to deal with his "black box." They do not require him to disclose his secret, at all. They can address that. They can even address unreliability simply by testing his best reactors, and even using duds for comparison, as "dead cells" made excellent controls in some CF experiments. They can address almost all possible errors in calorimetry by doing control experiments with no hydrogen but, say, helium. And they can use real calorimetry, such as what Jed -- and many others -- have described.
(Demonstrations to address the reliability issue would be designed differently, by using production E-cats and comparing them. That's really going to be Defkalion's problem, they will insist on this, or at least insist on the reliability of selected E-cats provided to them.)
Rossi's fraud is reprehensible, but so what? I may not like what some fool says on a stage, as a performance, but that doesn't make it illegal. He's said things about people that might expose him to libel charges, but that's not my concern. No damage was really done, I suspect. He can recover, and quickly, if his claims are even partially valid. That will be his choice at the time, if he fails to deliver.
Or he'll fade into obscurity, unable to continue, blaming everyone else. I suppose that's possible, too.
