2011/8/4 Abd ul-Rahman Lomax<a...@lomaxdesign.com>:
Now, if you assessed the probability at 70%, rationally you would bet 40
euros against a lesser amount from me. Suppose my bet is X euros. Forget the
charity thing, it complicates it.
It is impossible to assess probabilities for one time events,
Nonsense.
At the end of Dark Star one of the astronauts stands on a piece of
debris and attempts to surf down to the surface of the planet.
If he does everything just right, and if he's really lucky, it's
conceivable that he could survive.
Would you say it's really impossible to say anything about the
*probability* of that occuring?
Yet, it's a one-time event.
The mistake you are making is thinking that because an event is
apparently different in some way from other events, you can't lump them
together when figuring expected returns. If you really only ever did
one thing in your life, the expected return on that thing would have
little meaning, but that's not the case.
