Although I believe that sales of hard copies, in newspapers, mags and books, will decline over time I don't think there will be a significant drop soon. The iPhone has been very popular and sales are increasing but only a small proportion of the population owns one. I think the uptake of the iPad will follow the same pattern.
I think there are a few differences between the music industry and the print industry. Music sales are predominantly generated by young people who are more inclined to embrace new technology. People have been ripped off for CD album sales for many years (Australia being one of the worst places for this). People don't buy books to read a couple of their favourite chapters (although this might be different for mags and newspapers). People don't have to worry about having a book stolen or damaged. Ruben > > I don't think most people are talking about the iPad replacing receipts, > financial records and all of that sort of paper in an office (although with > credit card readers on iPhones and iPod touches now available and the low > price and ease of use of the iPod touch and iPad and the growing use of > electronic and online transactions perhaps we will finally see the dawn of > the true paperless office in many businesses). > > However, it is newspapers, magazines, text books and other books etc that I > think are most threatened. > > You only need to look at how rapidly MP3s have been killing CDs and how the > iTunes Store (and p2p) has killed traditional music shops to see that there > are actually plenty of examples where new tech has indeed caused a very rapid > decline of the old. > > The print and publishing industries are already starting to bear the label of > "beleaguered" as one newspaper after another closes up shop or sacks all > their creative talent due to their massive losses of subscriptions and sales. > Online ad-supported web versions have not been able to pick up the slack and > web users have been very resistant to paying for such content when so much > else is free. > > The phenomenal successes of the iTunes Music store and the App Store have > given publishers a new hope that they will be able to monetise their content > either thru dedicated iPhone/iPad apps or thru the new iBook store. > > Sure there will be many users who cling to dead trees as change can be an > effort, but the writing is on the wall (uh,,,tablet). > > I still remember people shaking their heads at me carrying my laptop around > to play mp3 files way before the iPod came on the scene and made it cool and > easy for joe public to recognise the advantages of having their whole music > library in their pocket. > > Well, I have a great sense of déjå vu now having been reading magazines, > ebooks, newspapers and myriad other websites on laptops, PDAs, older > smartphones and now the iPhone for so many years. Finally the iPod of eBook > readers has arrived and may indeed just herald an iPod-like explosion in > eBook use by the average consumer. > > Oh and Avatar? Well for the true 3D experience we'll just have to wait for > our 50" 3D-enabled "Minority Report" iPads to be installed on the walls of > our living rooms won't we? ;-) > > -Mart > > ------------------------------------ > Martin Hill > mailto:mart_h...@mac.com > homepages: http://web.mac.com/mart_hill > Mb: 0401-103-194 hm: (08)9314-5242 > > On 29/01/2010, at 8:36 AM, Peter Hinchliffe wrote: > >> >> >> On 28/01/2010, at 12:55 PM, Mark Secker wrote: >> >>> I can people using products such as these to replace magazines, >>> periodicals and factual repository books (dictionaries/encyclopedias >>> etc)... Our “normal computers, both desktop and laptop have already been >>> doing this over the last 15 years... >>> Project Gutenberg and Google books along with ewer devices like the iPhone >>> & touch and Kindle and now the iPad will accelerate this... >>> >>> But... Don’t look at books dying not in our lifetime, probably not even in >>> the long term future.... >>> There is a very visceral connection with books that no hand held device >>> will emulate. >> >> I have to agree with your sentiments. Ever since I touched my first Apple >> IIe in 1983, people have been predicting a "paperless" society. Here we are >> nearly thirty years later and it's not close to happening. Further back than >> that, the advent of television was predicting the death of the movie >> industry. That hasn't happened either. Was has happened is that the print >> industry and the movie industry have had to change the nature of their >> products to keep them relevant. Yes, many of the smaller players will be >> consumed by the juggernaut of changing technology, but it's going to be >> long, long time before we see the ultimate demise of either of these >> industries; and these are only two examples out of many. >> >> Pretty much any activity which relies on having to deal with business >> clients or the public (which is pretty much any business) is going to need >> access to hardcopy records to back up financial records, warranty issues, >> ownership rights, etc, etc. The list is endless. It doesn't take to much >> thought to realise that as soon as the power to an electronic document >> storage system fails, the documents cease to exist in any physical sense. We >> are going to need paper for the foreseeable future. >> >> I could go on, but I won't, except to say that I had the delight of watching >> Avatar in 3D at the Gold Class cinema at Innaloo on the weekend. In my >> wildest imagination, I can't see how any handheld video device could match >> that experience. >> >> >> -- >> >> Peter Hinchliffe Apwin Computer Services >> FileMaker Pro Solutions Developer >> Perth, Western Australia >> Phone (618) 9332 6482 Mob 0403 064 948 >> -------------------------------------------------------------------- >> Mac because I prefer it -- Windows because I have to. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> -- The WA Macintosh User Group Mailing List -- >> Archives - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/archives.shtml> >> Guidelines - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/guidelines.shtml> >> Unsubscribe - <mailto:wamug-unsubscr...@wamug.org.au> >> > > > > -- The WA Macintosh User Group Mailing List -- > Archives - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/archives.shtml> > Guidelines - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/guidelines.shtml> > Unsubscribe - <mailto:wamug-unsubscr...@wamug.org.au> > -- The WA Macintosh User Group Mailing List -- Archives - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/archives.shtml> Guidelines - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/guidelines.shtml> Unsubscribe - <mailto:wamug-unsubscr...@wamug.org.au>
