Patrick, Just for the record, let me say I realize there are many little details between WiMax and Wifi that can translate to real big differences in value proposition gain for Wimax, after all said and done. There is no doubt in my mind that Wimax-D price tags for top quality gear can results in a reasonable ROI for those targeting commercial markets. More so when a company graduates from mom&pop size operation to a company that has to be able to scale easilly.
But it has never really mattered what the profit or revenue potential was for using a product. At the end of the day operators dont pay more than they have to pay for anything. No business does. As an example, its ludacris that I pay more for one of my core roof rights sites than I do for the transit fiber that serves my entire foot print of customers made possible by 24 cell sites. But.... I pay less for transit, because there is competition between vendors, and I can. Its irrelevent that the transit should be worth a higher percentage of my revenue. As well, I pay more than I should for that one high priced roof, because there was competition amongst buyers, and I legitimately needed that space. Clearly in 3.65ghz, there is an immediate opportunity for manufacturers to hold on to high margins for longer, and justify them. But... I still stand behind my core point. "The dynamics are changing." Prices are falling, and low price gear is starting to become more feature rich, closer to a WiMax product, tolerable to scale an operation. The gap between Wifi and Wimax is shrinking. It will be an interesting year in wireless technology again this year. My 2010 New Years Wish is that maybe in 2010, 80Ghz manufacturers will step up to make progress equivellent or in line with Licensed 6-23G PTP and 3.5-5.8G PtMP manufacturers that made major advancements in 2009. The technology is there, I just hope our industry accomplishes the price point needed for mass scale in time, before companies like ATT get fiber to every home by 2015 :-) Tom DeReggi RapidDSL & Wireless, Inc IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband ----- Original Message ----- From: "Patrick Leary" <[email protected]> To: "WISPA General List" <[email protected]> Sent: Tuesday, December 29, 2009 7:13 PM Subject: Re: [WISPA] Wimax gear > In our case, the numbers are about $20k for three sectors yielding an > aggregate of about 60 mbps net for that cell. With WiMAX scheduling and > our QoS, you could realistically connect well over 600 CPE in that cell. > The sweet spot remains commercial, especially when implementing a double > play of voice and data, so you can generate high ARPU. > > > Patrick Leary > Aperto Networks > 813.426.4230 mobile > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On > Behalf Of Tom DeReggi > Sent: Tuesday, December 29, 2009 4:00 PM > To: WISPA General List > Subject: Re: [WISPA] Wimax gear > > I hate to sabatage this 3650 thread, but I cant help myself, when > 802.16e is mentioned for PtMP.... > > 1) Ubiquiti Mimo AP - $89, capacity up to 150 mb, (or maybe 50mbps > might be more fair, for avg 20 Mhz channel 2x pole). > > 2) Mikroik AP MIMO- $400, capacity: same as Ubiquiti, but with Spectrum > Analysis, and a bit of hassle added. > > 3) Wimax 802.16e AP (1 antenna) - $9000, capacity: more efficient use of > 25 mbps. > > 4) Wimax 802.16d AP - ?? $2000 - $7000 ??, capacity: same as Legacy TDD > OFDM, or CDMA OFDM if small channel in 3.65G. > > 5) Legacy TDD OFDM- $1800, up to 25 mbps. Better management than wifi > > 6) Legacy CDMA OFDM AP- $300, capacity like 14 mbps. > > 7) Legacy DSSS TDD - $1300, 10mbps > > > In the transition from Legacy to next adjacent generation, the > decissions might have been tough. I get it, when some justified WiMax. > > But as we jump to the current day, represented at the top of the chart > with items #1 and #2, it is almost silly to even see 802.16e in the > line-up. > > Ubiquiti offers 1/100th the price, at 2x to 6x higher capacity than > Wimax, dependant on how you look at it. > > Lets get real, will a WISP still consider Wimax-e, just to get a few > feature enhancements, that is if they were to use their OWN money? > Sure, we might choose WiMax for a grant, when WiMax will help prove > "Never able to reach profitabilty, without aid". But thats a different > game. > > Now, we also have to consider, just about all carriers other than > Sprint, has preferred and will choose LTE. Its inevidable that LTE will > extinguish the 802.16e carrier market, so we cant even argue 802.16e > will help our exit strategy, anymore. > > Dont misunderstand me, I dont doubt WiMax's technology. Its good stuff. > > So my question is, when will 802.16e manufacturers admit their original > target market, game plan, and price list is ancient history? > > Will recent industry developments force WiMax 802.16e carriers to lower > their price points down to the levels that are in line with the WISP > market's expectations? > Surely, its technically possible to reach those price points, Ubiquiti > proved that, even if with Wifi chipsets. Arguably, Intel could reach > the same scale with 802.16e instantly, if manufacturers lowered the AP > cost to sub $2000. > > Will the BTOP/BIP program prevent price drops? Why lower price, when > Grant programs could keep the price high for atleast 3 more years, > beyond what the private funded operators would normally allow? > > Ubiquiti has set the bar high for our industry, and has got to be the > largest disruptive force to the ISP industry since Cogent drove transit > low cost. > > Wimax has a challenge in front of them. They lost the carrier market, > and if you ask me, they'll lose the WISP market to, if they dont lower > their price and up their game. > > I agree, WISPs would rather a full featured WiMax product, but when its > being compared against a $90 product that is like Wifi on steroids, its > a new game. > I predict there will be numerous manufacturers this year filling the > market that Mikrotik is currently leading the effort to tackle. > > Its the markets where its realized that a $99 AP is not necessary, and > compromises like giving up spectrum analysis cant be accepted, but where > manufacturers will challenge themselve to see how close to the price > point they can get, without compromising advanced features. > > History showed us that Consumers will choose Linksys over Cisco. > Eventually Cisco realized they had to become Linksys, in some capacity. > > > > Tom DeReggi > RapidDSL & Wireless, Inc > IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > -------- > WISPA Wants You! 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