What if post-July the ANC has actually gained even more support? The ANC had to go all out after reviewing its perfomance in government and also the conduct of its cadres in relation to state resources they were entrusted with by the ANC. Upon ariving at the conclusion it also decided that in the interest of our democracy and the *electorate* that has voted the *ANC, *the NEC had to take a decision in order for those cadres who have transgressed the ANC promises it had made to the electorate to be held accountable. For that the heads had to roll and those who had empwered themselves instead of the electorate had to be chopped.
For that i have some confidence that the ANC has demonstrated the kind of brave & accountable leadership that not even one of these mickey mouse parties, including the zimbie shikota could do. The shikota had already started their top down management approach they had practised 11-12 months ago when they still enjoyed prominance in the ANC as leaders. Do they have any long term vision? No!!! On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 4:08 PM, LINDA SCHALK <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Mpho, the report was indeed compiled in july08 according to schlemer survey > predicting where the mass movement will be standing post 2009 general > elections,it revealed that the ANC will top,youre' comrade by saying that a > lot has happened in our country politics,but it sounds like u're part sum > people who believe tht the movement is bleeding and shud butt out whilst > early,what i was bringing across is dat the party is firm. > > Mpho Tabane wrote: > > Linda you are misleading Cdes this report !! It was compiled end of July > and alot has happened politically between July and todate we cannot use this > report wrt to current political affairs the only thing that can be done is > the impact analysis of the current political status with reference to this > report and work on that but bottomline this is not a true reflection of > where politics are in SA at the current moment. > > On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 2:58 PM, LINDA SCHALK < [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > wrote: > > dear fellow cadres > > i fully agree with dominic statements that new shikotas party will be > @the bottom level/gutter along with all other opposition party--point of > correction i dont think the movement has had any strong opposition, even if > the shikotas can sleep in the same bed with helen zille or holomisa which i > suspect,, the movement stands undefeated,,we as comrades should united and > mobilise,,,,the survey results speak for its self > > > > AMANDLA MAQABANE --- On Tue, 11/4/08, Dominic Tweedie < > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: > > From: Dominic Tweedie < [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: [YCLSA > Discussion] Report on voter preferences > > To: [email protected] Date: Tuesday, November 4, 2008, > 10:51 AM > > Schlemmer is an anti-communist liberal who hi-jacked his opinion-poll > unit by privatisation from the HSRC. The full report is laced with his own > opinions but the facts cannot so easily be hidden. ANC support is high > enough to deliver a two-thirds majority and a three-quarters majority is > within reach. So-called "voter apathy" has gone DOWN to 15% from 29%. There > is no space for the Shikotas except at the expense of the DA. In my opinion > the Shikotas have no chance and only exist to make short-term problems for > the Alliance. Long-term, they are going to be down there with the UDM, > Azapo, ACDP and PAC. What do you think, comrades? > > Report on voter preferences > > > > Politicsweb, 3 November 2008 > > > > Extract from survey by Lawrence Schlemmer Markdata, July 2008 > > > > The Survey > > > > MarkData, an opinion polling and strategic research company that has > operated as an independent private sector organisation since its separation > from the statutory Human Sciences Research Council in 1996-1997, regularly > undertakes surveys of political support patterns in South Africa and other > African countries. Its political opinion surveys are based on two-stage > stratified probability samples of adult voters in households in all > communities throughout the country in both rural and urban areas, using > census enumerator areas as a sampling frame. > > > > The current survey, which covers 2415 adult South Africans, is slightly > larger than the 2250 of previous surveys and also incorporates a modified > design intended to strengthen the sample size and reliability of results in > opposition constituencies without sacrificing the relevance of results for > the electorate as a whole. Hence, in the first stage of sampling, > constituencies more likely to include opposition voters were given a > slightly higher chance of being randomly selected than those that typically > contain dominant majorities of governing party supporters, but subsequent to > the completion of fieldwork the sampling results were re-weighted using > appropriate post-weighting software in order to provide estimates of the > overall national support patterns of political parties. > > > > > > The Results: weighted and rectified > > Party Support Patterns > > > > The following breakdown of party strengths emerged from the standard > open-ended question posed: "Which political party will you vote for in the > general election in 2009?" The results are presented in the table below > compared with results in two previous surveys by MarkData. > > > > Table 1. Current strength of political parties compared with two > previous surveys > > > > (The percentages in parenthesis exclude respondents not intending to > vote or not responding in order to approximate an election outcome) > > > > Political party supported > > May > > 2008 > > March > > 2007 > > March > > 2004 > > > > % > > (%) > > % > > (%) > > % > > (%) > > ANC/SACP > > 59,6 > > (70,5) > > 62,0 > > (76,8) > > 52,3 > > (73,7) > > PAC > > 0,6 > > (0,7) > > 0,7 > > (0,9) > > 0,9 > > (1,3) > > NNP > > - > > - > > 0,6 > > (0,7) > > 2,0 > > (2,8) > > DA > > 17,4 > > (20,6) > > 9,9 > > (12,3) > > 7,9 > > (11,2) > > ID > > 2,0 > > (2,4) > > 1,4 > > (1,7) > > 3,3 > > (4,7) > > UDM > > 1,0 > > (1,2) > > 0,5 > > (0,6) > > 0,7 > > (1,0) > > IFP > > 2,1 > > (2,5) > > 3,2 > > (4,0) > > 2,7 > > (3,8) > > FF+ > > 0,5 > > (0,6) > > 0,4 > > (0,5) > > 0,2 > > (0,3) > > ACDP > > 0,9 > > (1,0) > > 0,5 > > (0,6) > > 0,7 > > (1,0) > > Right wing parties > > - > > - > > 0,2 > > (0,2) > > - > > - > > AZAPO > > 0,4 > > (0,5) > > 0,3 > > (0,4) > > - > > - > > Other > > 0,4 > > (0,4) > > 1,1 > > (1,3) > > 0,2 > > (0,2) > > (Total of party choices) > > (100,4) > > (100,0) > > (100,0) > > No choice (undecided, will not vote, not registered, not interested in > politics, refuse) > > 15,5 > > - > > 19,2 > > 29,1 > > TOTAL > > 100,1 > > 100,0 > > 100,0 > > Deviations from 100 due to rounding > > > > Comparisons of party strength have to be based on the second set of > estimates for each year (the figures in brackets) that allow standardised > comparisons with the uncertain voters removed. These figures also > approximate election outcomes (it is a common procedure in electoral > research to remove the uncertain voters and those who refuse to give a > choice in order to estimate election outcomes). > > > > Hence, as voter attitudes stand at the moment, what may be predicted > from these results is that the ANC majority in the next election will > decline slightly to just over 70% and that the DA will consolidate its > position as the major opposition to government, with results like the > following: > > > > Party outcomes 2009: > > > > ANC/SACP > > 70-71% > > DA > > 20-21% > > ID > > 2-3% > > IFP > > 2-3% > > UDM > > +/- 1% > > ACDP > > +/- 1% > > PAC > > < 1% > > FF+ > > < 1% > > AZAPO > > < 1% > > Others > > < 1% > > > > Broadly what the results in table 1 show is that the level of > uncertainty among voters has declined from 2004. Currently only some 16% of > the electorate does not make choices between parties in the survey > interviews. There is a challenge for opposition parties, however, in that > the motivation to vote among their supporters is slightly lower than that > among ANC supporters: > > > > Table 2. Motivation to vote among party supporters > > > > Party > > Voter motivation: > > Will definitely/probably vote* > > Total % of party > > Supporters > > ANC > > 80% + 13% > > 93% > > ID > > 52% + 37% > > 89% > > DA > > 67% + 20% > > 87% > > ACDP > > 67% + 19% > > 86% > > UDM > > 74% + 7% > > 81% > > Other parties > > 54% + 21% > > 75% > > IFP > > 55% + 18% > > 73% > > FF+ > > 29% + 41% > > 70% > > > > * "Definitely" or "probably" is taken as a firmer intention to vote than > other responses like will "possibly" vote or will probably or possibly not > vote > > > > From Politicsweb at: > > > > > http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid=108653&sn=Detail > > > > > > > > > > > -- VM --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You are subscribed. This footer can help you. 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